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An Autonomic Workflow Performance Manager for Weather Forecast and Research Modeling WorkflowsGu, Shuqing, Gu, Shuqing January 2016 (has links)
Parameter selection is a critical task in scientific workflows in order to maintain the accuracy of the simulation in an environment where physical conditions change dynamically such as in the case of weather research and forecast simulations. Currently, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the premier method for weather prediction, which is used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It takes the current observations from observed sites as the input for numeric computer models and then produces the final prediction. Considering the large number of simulation parameters, the size of the configuration search space becomes prohibitive for rapidly evaluating and identifying the parameter configuration that leads to most accurate prediction. In this thesis, we develop an Autonomic Workflow Performance Manager (AWPM) for Hurricane Integrated Modeling System (HIMS). AWPM is implemented on top of the Apache Storm and ZooKeeper to handle multiple real-time data streams for weather forecast. AWPM can automatically manage model initialization and execution workflow and achieve better performance and efficiency. In our experiments, AWPM achieves better performance and efficiency for the model initialization and execution processes, by utilizing automatic computing, distributed computing and component-based development. We reduced the timescale of the configuration search workflow by a factor of 10 by using 20 threads with the full search method, and a factor of 20 by with the roofline method when compared to serial workflow execution as it is typically performed by domain scientists.
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High flow events as hot moments of reactive Fe and P export: impacts of land cover and seasonalityRosenberg, Braden 01 January 2016 (has links)
High flow events often comprise the majority of annual discharge and riverine geochemical flux of phosphorus (P) and metals such as iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) due to glacial melt, snowmelt, and storm-driven sustained high flow. Aquatic ecosystem productivity in receiving water bodies such as Lake Champlain and the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) are impacted by the riverine import of nutrients. The magnitude of these high flow events can be a strong predictor of receiving water body conditions, and in some cases can contribute to eutrophication. We explore the intersection of high flow events and land cover in contrasting catchments in Vermont and Alaska, covering a range of land covers including glacial, boreal-forested, mixed hardwood-conifer forested, and agricultural.
In Vermont, we explore the hypothesis that riverine dissolved and suspended sediment P loads during spring runoff have a particularly high proportion of reactive species due to unique hydrologic pathways and the association of P with Fe. We compared spring runoff and summer storm concentrations and distribution of dissolved P (DP), dissolved and colloidal metals, and redox sensitive suspended sediment P (RSP). Agricultural catchments in Vermont were characterized by enrichment in RSP and DP during both spring runoff and summer storms, particularly at the onset of snowmelt. In 2014, 82% of the annual DP and 74% of annual RSP loads were delivered to Missisquoi Bay during spring runoff, with the majority of suspended sediment significantly more redox sensitive, and carrying potentially bioavailable P, than typical inputs to limnological models, suggesting that the reactivity of this load is systematically underestimated.
In Alaska, we investigate Fe size partitioning and flux throughout the hydrologic year, with additional high-resolution sampling during discrete storm events in adjacent forested and glacierized catchments typical of coastal Alaska. There are clear differences between these catchments during individual storm events, and across seasons, reflecting widely varying source environments for Fe. The geochemical character of river water exported from the forested catchment, dominated by dissolved Fe and DOC, reflects the influence of peatlands and organic-rich soil as the dominant source of Fe and P, while the glacial catchment exports significantly more material derived from glacial weathering of bedrock, reflected in higher sediment and colloidal concentrations. Phosphorus concentrations in both watersheds are very low throughout the year, but significantly higher in the forested catchment, driven by organic matter decomposition.
Both Vermont and Alaska are likely to be significantly impacted by climate change, with an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, and continued glacial recession in Alaska driven by rising temperatures. Changes in the timing, provenance, and severity of high flow associated with climate and land cover change will have dramatic impacts on total riverine P and Fe loads, and their potential reactivity and bioavailability in receiving water bodies. Development of conceptual models that incorporate the intersection between high flow events (hot moments) and land cover source environments (hot spots) is critical to understanding how these systems are likely to change in the future.
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A Study Of The Physicochemical Properties Of Dense And Mesoporous Silica Nanoparticles That Impact Protein Adsorption From Biological FluidsClemments, Alden Michael 01 January 2016 (has links)
At the intersection of materials chemistry and biology, biomaterials have been successfully employed in an array of medical applications. From diagnostic tools to targeted drug delivery, the modular physical and chemical properties of these materials provide numerous applications. For example, porous nanoparticles have been widely integrated as vehicles to carry chemotherapeutics to localized tumor sites. By encapsulating these cytotoxic compounds within a porous framework, the commonly associated adverse side effects of conventional chemotherapeutics, such as Doxorubicin, have been greatly reduced. One such material, mesoporous silica, has received widespread attention due to its excellent biocompatibility, high surface area to mass ratio, tunable pore diameters and volumes, and robust surface chemistry. However, recent studies have demonstrated that exposing silica nanoparticles, and other synthetic materials, to biological milieu envelops the particles in layers of proteins and biomolecules. The resulting protein coat, known as the "protein corona", has been shown to have profound effects on bioavailability, cellular targeting, and cytotoxicity. Thus, in order to develop safe and effective particle-based therapies, it is of utmost importance to establish a more thorough understanding of this process.
To examine how changes in surface chemistry influence protein adsorption, monodisperse, spherical mesoporous silica nanoparticles, ca. 50 nm, were modified with a variety of surface functionalizations, -NH2, -COOH, and -PEG. Exposing these materials to biological fluid revealed drastically different protein fingerprints, suggesting a strong correlation between the surface chemistry and the identity and composition of the protein corona. Quantification of the protein corona, i.e. mg protein/mg particles, was then achieved by performing thermogravimetric analysis. These values, in concert with spectral counts obtained by shotgun proteomics, illustrates a method for quantifying individual proteins present in the corona.
Spherical, silica particles of varying diameters, 70-900 nm, were then synthesized to investigate how particle diameter may affect the biomolecular identity of the protein corona. Applying the previously described methods, it was found that mesoporous particles exhibit a higher affinity for low-molecular weight proteins compared to dense silica particles of similar diameters.
Finally, stochastic optical reconstruction microscopy (STORM) was used to map protein adsorption/diffusion throughout as-prepared (pore diameter ~ 30 Å) .and large pore (pore diameter > 60 Å) mesoporous silica particles. By collecting three-dimensional data on the protein-adsorbed materials, a sphere-fitting algorithm could be applied to determine the center and radius of the host particle. This calculation demonstrated that the depth by which specific proteins diffused into the porous framework was a function of both the protein's molecular weight as well as the pore diameter.
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Charakteristiky konvektivního prostředí v atmosféře / Characteristics of atmospheric convective environmentKeprtová, Pavlína January 2013 (has links)
The quality of convective precipitation and storm prediction is dependent on the level of knowledge of the convective environment. Convective environment characteristics describe various conditions in the atmosphere which are suitable for the convective storm formation and evolution. The characteristics CAPE, wind shear S01, S03 and S06 were selected for the discussion of their properties and predictive ability. This master thesis deals with the CAPE and S0X values analysis in the Czech Republic during the period May-August 2005-2011. Furthermore it analyzes the distribution of the combined characteristics CAPE × S0X and index NDSEV, especially in the critical interval of values which indicate a storm occurrence. It also deals with the estimation of relationship between NDSEV index and the heavy precipitation occurrence in the Czech Republic. The verification criterion CSI was applied to the evaluation of various threshold values for the NDSEV index.
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Reliable on-demand routing protocols for mobile ad-hoc networksKhan, Shariq Mahmood January 2015 (has links)
Mobile Ad-Hoc Network (MANET) facilitates the creation of dynamic reconfigurable networks, without centralized infrastructure. MANET routing protocols have to face high challenges like link instability, node mobility, frequently changing topologies and energy consumption of node, due to these challenges routing becomes one of the core issues in MANETs. This Thesis mainly focuses on the reactive routing protocol such as Ad-Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol. Reliable and Efficient Reactive Routing Protocol (RERRP) for MANET has been proposed to reduce the link breakages between the moving nodes. This scheme selects a reliable route using Reliability Factor (RF); the RF considers Route Expiration Time and Hop Count to select a routing path with high reliability and have less number of hops. The simulation result shows that RERRP outperforms AODV and enhance the packet delivery fraction (PDF) by around 6% and reduces the network routing load (NRL) by around 30%. Broadcasting in MANET could cause serious redundancy, contention, and collision of the packets. A scheme, Effective Broadcast Control Routing Protocol (EBCRP) has been proposed for the controlling of broadcast storm problem in a MANET. The EBCRP is mainly selects the reliable node while controlling the redundant re-broadcast of the route request packet. The proposed algorithm EBCRP is an on-demand routing protocol, therefore AODV route discovery mechanism was selected as the base of this scheme. The analysis of the performance of EBCRP has revealed that the EBCRP have controlled the routing overhead significantly, reduces it around 70% and enhance the packet delivery by 13% as compared to AODV. An Energy Sensible and Route Stability Based Routing Protocol (ESRSBR) have also been proposed that mainly focuses on increasing the network lifetime with better packet delivery. The ESRSBR supports those nodes to participate in the data transfer that have more residual energy related to their neighbour nodes. The proposed protocol also keeps track of the stability of the links between the nodes. Finally, the ESRSBR selects those routes which consist of nodes that have more residual energy and have stable links. The comparative analysis of ESRSBR with AODV and recently proposed routing protocol called Link Stability and Energy Aware (LSEA) routing protocol revealed that the proposed protocol ESRSBR has a significantly affect the network lifetime, increases it around 10% and 13% as compared to LSEA and AODV protocols respectively. The ESRSBR also decreases the routing overhead by 22% over LSEA and by 38% over AODV.
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Red flag: how the rise of “realistic training” after Vietnam changed the Air Force’s way of war, 1975-1999Laslie, Brian Daniel January 1900 (has links)
Doctor of Philosophy / Department of History / Donald J. Mrozek / This dissertation examines how changes in training after Vietnam altered the Air Force’s way of war. Specifically, the rise of realistic training exercises in the U.S. Air Force, particularly in the Tactical Air Command, after the end of the Vietnam conflict in 1975 ushered in a drastic increase in the use of tactical fighter aircraft to accomplish Air Force missions. Many scholars, including Benjamin Lambeth and Richard Hallion, have emphasized the primacy of technological developments in the renaissance of air power between Vietnam and the Gulf War. This neglects the importance of developments in training in the Tactical Air Command during the same period. This dissertation demonstrates that throughout the 1970s and 1980s Air Force leaders reconsidered some of their long-held assumptions about air power’s proper use and re-cast older ideas in ways that they considered more realistic and better justified by past experience. Realistic training exercises led to better tactics and doctrines and, when combined with technological advancement, changed the way the Air Force waged war. Tactical assets became the weapons of preference for Air Force planners for several reasons including their ability to precisely deliver munitions onto targets and their ability to penetrate and survive in high-threat environments. Tactical assets could accomplish these missions precisely because of the changes that occurred in training. At the same time, the rise of tactical assets to equality with strategic assets directly led to the demise of both Tactical Air Command and Strategic Air Command and the creation of the single Air Combat Command.
The conventional view that a massive technological revolution in military affairs took place in the 1980s and led to success in Desert Storm is conceptually too limiting. That interpretation places too much emphasis on the technological advancements used to prosecute war and slights the experiences of the airmen themselves in the development of the training exercises that helped change how the U.S. Air Force waged war.
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A study of stormwater runoff from Alexandra township in the juskei riverCampbell, Linda Anne January 1996 (has links)
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Engineering, University of the
Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Science in Engineering / South Africa, like many other developing countries, is faced with rapid urbanisation
with the associated increase in the pollution load. Much of this pollution is destined
for our watercourses, that eventually run into storage reservoirs which may be used
for drinking water or recreational purposes. This pollution is usually attributed to
human waste products which include nitrogenous wastes, phosphates, microorganisms,
organic material and litter,
A 6km stretch of the Jukskei river just downstream of Alexandra Township, was
used to determine the different biological, physical and chemical processes that
pollutants undergo during natural assimilation, their rates and efficiencies of
assimilation in rivers and their impact Oil the environment downstream of the urban
area. "Grab" samples were taken over a period which included both low-flow and
storm events. Due to the high concentration of nutrients in the run-off from
Alexandra Township, the major changes seen were in the biological conversion of
organic nitrogen compounds and ammonia to nitrates, in the BOD and in the
concentration of dissolved oxygen in the river, with lows of 1.1 to 1.5 mg/l 02
being recorded at Alexandra. A rapid rise in the concentration of faecal coliforms
has been seen with a high of 31 million/100 ml being recorded at Alexandra in
September, 1994. Sedimentation at the Alexandra site is also a common occurrence
with a lot of adsorbed pollutants being effectively removed from the water column
with the suspended solids.
The QUAL2E water quality model, used by the EPA in the United States, was used
to model the reactions that the nutrients, BOD and DO undergo. BOD and DO
were modelled very well with r of 0.98 and 0.94 being calculated respectively.
QUAL2E did not model tile dissolved potlutants, dissolved phosphorus and
ammonia very well with the observed results showing a greater reduction ill these
pollutants. A method by which these pollutants adhere to SS and settle out was / AC2017
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The influence of storm movement and temporal variability of rainfall on urban pluvial flooding : 1D-2D modelling with empirical hyetographs and CDS-rainOlsson, Jimmy January 2019 (has links)
Pluvial floods are formed directly from surface runoff after extreme rain events. Urban areas are prone to suffer from these floods due to large portions of hardened surfaces and limited capacity in the stormwater infrastructure. Previous research has shown that catchment response is influenced by the spatio-temporal behaviour of the rainstorm. A rainstorm moving in the same direction as the surface flow can amplify the runoff peak and temporal variability of rainfall intensity generally results in greater peak discharge compared to constant rainfall. This research attempted to relate the effect of storm movement on flood propagation in urban pluvial flooding to the effect from different distributions of rainfall intensity. An additional objective was to investigate the flood response from recent findings on the temporal variability in Swedish rain events and compare it to the flood depths produced by a CDS-rain (Chicago Design Storm), where the latter is the design practice in flood modelling today. A 2D surface model of an urban catchment was coupled with a 1D model of the drainage network and forced by six different hyetographs. Among them were five empirical hyetographs developed by Olsson et al. (2017) and one a CDS-rain. The rainstorms were simulated to move in different directions: along and against the surface flow direction, perpendicular to it and with no movement. Maximum flood depth was evaluated at ten locations and the model results show that storm movement had negligible effect on the flood depths. The impact from the movement was likely limited by the big difference in speed between the rainstorm and the surface flow. All evaluated locations showed a considerable sensitivity to changes in the hyetograph. The maximum flood depth increased at most with a factor of 1.9 depending on the hyetograph that was used as model input. The CDS-rain produced higher flood depths compared to the empirical hyetographs, although one of the empirical hyetographs produced a similar result. Based on the results from this case study, it was concluded that storm movement was not as critical as the temporal variability of rainfall when evaluating maximum flood depth. / Pluviala översvämningar skapas från ytavrinning vid intensiva nederbördstillfällen. De uppstår ofta i urbana miljöer till följd av den höga andelen hårdgjorda ytor och ledningsnätets begränsade kapacitet. Forskning har visat att ett regnmolns rörelseriktning och hastighet påverkar avrinningsförloppet. Om molnet rör sig längs med flödesriktningen i terrängen kan en ökning i vattenlödet nedströms ett avrinningsområde uppstå. Denna effekt har visat sig vara störst om hastigheten hos regnmolnet och vattenflödet är likvärdiga. Ytterliggare en faktor som påverkar avrinningsförloppet är hur regnintensiteten är fördelad över tid. Olsson et al. (2017) har tagit fram fem empiriska regntyper som speglar tidsfördelning inom ett Svenskt regntillfälle. Inom översvämningsmodellering är det vanligt att använda ett så kallat CDS-regn (Chicago Design Storm), vilken har en given tidsfördelning. Med anledning av detta är det intressant att jämföra översvämningar genererade av ett CDS-regn och av de empiriska regntyperna. Syftet med denna studie var att utreda hur regnmolns rörelse påverkar urbana pluviala översvämningar med avseende på vattendjup, samt att jämföra denna påverkan med effekten från olika tidsfördelningar av regnintensiteter. En kombinerad dagvattenmodell (1D) och markavrinningsmodell (2D) av en mindre svensk tätort användes för att simulera olika regnscenarier. De fem empiriska regntyperna och ett CDS-regn simulerades med en rörelseriktning längs med, emot och vinkelrätt i förhållande till flödesriktningen. Även scenarier med stationära regnmoln simulerades. Maximala översvämningsdjup utvärderades i tio punkter spridda över hela modellområdet. Resultatet från simuleringarna visade att regnmolnets rörelse hade försumbar påverkan på översvämningsdjupen. De olika tidsfördelningarna av regnintensitet hade däremot betydande påverkan på de maximala översvämningsdjupen. Som mest var det det maximala översvämningsdjupet 1.9 gånger större beroende vilken regntyp som användes som indata. CDS-regnet genererade i regel de största översvämningsdjupen, även om utfallet från en av de fem empiriska regntyperna var förhållandevis likvärdigt. Regnintensitetens tidsfördelning var därmed en kritisk parameter vid den hydrauliska modelleringen av urbana pluviala översävmningar, till skillnad från molnrörelse som hade försumbar påverkan.
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Análise da influência da distribuição temporal das chuvas intensas e de cenários de uso e ocupação do solo na quantificação dos prejuízos econômicos diretos provocados pelas inundações urbanas / Economic analysis of urban stormwater under two methods of temporal distribution of rainfallAbreu, Fernando Girardi de 18 October 2013 (has links)
Como já sabemos, as inundações urbanas no Brasil são decorrentes principalmente do processo de urbanização desordenado que se acentuou a partir da década de 50. As inundações causam problemas tais como: perdas humanas, problemas de saúde pública, degradação da qualidade das águas e prejuízos econômicos da ordem de bilhões de reais. Para tanto, a pesquisa objetivou analisar os prejuízos decorrentes de inundações urbanas na bacia do Córrego do Gregório no município de São Carlos SP, sob duas formas de distribuição temporal de chuvas intensas, considerando seis cenários alternativos de ocupação da bacia e períodos de retorno de 25, 50 e 100 anos. A pesquisa ocorreu em etapas: foram aplicados os métodos de distribuição temporal de chuvas de Huff 1º quartil e blocos alternados para análise dos hidrogramas de cheia na região central da cidade, próxima ao mercado municipal, área sujeita a inundações frequentes. Na sequência, foram traçadas as manchas de inundação resultantes por meio de Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG); cadastrados os imóveis residenciais e comerciais (objetos de estudo) presentes na mancha de inundação; desenvolvido um banco de dados em plataforma SIG com as informações dos imóveis; definidas as profundidades de submersão dos imóveis cadastrados para as condições de contorno do estudo. Finalmente, foram calculados os prejuízos aos imóveis cadastrados decorrentes das profundidades de submersão para os cenários estudados pelos diferentes métodos de distribuição das chuvas. Conclui-se que a alteração do método de distribuição temporal das chuvas pode trazer incertezas quanto à transformação da chuva em vazão e, dessa forma, introduzir diferenças significativas nos resultados. Porém, percebeu-se que essas diferenças possuem correlação direta com o processo de infiltração da água no solo, que por sua vez influi no volume da precipitação efetiva, a qual gerará o escoamento superficial. A variação dos resultados em relação aos métodos de distribuição temporal da chuva para os prejuízos econômicos diretos alcançaram valores da ordem de R$ 750.000,00 pelo método de Huff 1º quartil e da ordem de R$ 5.200.000,00 pelo método dos blocos alternados com pico na metade da duração da chuva para o mesmo tempo de retorno e cenário de uso e ocupação do solo.Dessa forma, além da forte influência dos métodos de distribuição temporal das chuvas, os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os prejuízos diretos das inundações urbanas são também afetados pelos cenários de ocupação vislumbrados para a bacia hidrográfica e pelos valores do período de retorno adotado para a tormenta de projeto. Levando em consideração esses três fatores observou-se que, para certas situações, houve uma grande sensibilidade frente aos eventos simulados a qual foi constatada em uma análise das variáveis estatísticas aplicadas ao estudo. / Urban flooding in Brazil is mainly caused by urban development that has increased since 60\'s decade. Floods cause problems such as: human loss, public health problems, degradation of water quality and economic loss of billions of reais. Therefore, this research aimed to examine the damage caused by flooding in the Gregory watershed located in São Carlos - SP, by two methods of temporal distribution of intense rainfall. The area of study is located in an area subject to flooding, in the central region of the city, next to the municipal market. It was considered six alternative scenarios of land use and return period of 25, 50 and 100 years. First it were applied the methods of temporal distribution of rainfall from Huff 1st quartile and alternating blocks for analysis of runoff hydrographs. In the sequence, it was traced the resulting flooding spots by the Geographic Information System (GIS); it was registered the residential and commercial properties (objects of study) in the flooding spot; it was generated a database on GIS platform with the properties information; it was defined the submersion depths of the registered properties for the studied boundary conditions. Finally the damage was calculated for the registered properties arising from the submersion depths and the scenarios studied by different methods of distribution of rainfall. It was concluded that the change in the method of temporal distribution of rainfall may introduce uncertainties on the transformation of rainfall to flow and, thus, introduce significant differences in the results. However, it was noticed that these differences are directly correlated to the soil infiltration process. That process influences the net storm rainfall volume, which generates the runoff. The direct economic damage reached values of R$ 750,000.00 using the temporal distribution of rainfall from the Huff 1st quartile method. On the other hand, the alternating blocks method estimated the damages of R$ 5,200,000.00, with a peak in the mid of the rain duration for the same return period adopted to the rainfall project. Considering these three factors, it was observed that for certain situations there was a great sensitivity of the simulated events which were identified in a statistical analysis of the variables applied to the study.
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Análise da influência da distribuição temporal das chuvas intensas e de cenários de uso e ocupação do solo na quantificação dos prejuízos econômicos diretos provocados pelas inundações urbanas / Economic analysis of urban stormwater under two methods of temporal distribution of rainfallFernando Girardi de Abreu 18 October 2013 (has links)
Como já sabemos, as inundações urbanas no Brasil são decorrentes principalmente do processo de urbanização desordenado que se acentuou a partir da década de 50. As inundações causam problemas tais como: perdas humanas, problemas de saúde pública, degradação da qualidade das águas e prejuízos econômicos da ordem de bilhões de reais. Para tanto, a pesquisa objetivou analisar os prejuízos decorrentes de inundações urbanas na bacia do Córrego do Gregório no município de São Carlos SP, sob duas formas de distribuição temporal de chuvas intensas, considerando seis cenários alternativos de ocupação da bacia e períodos de retorno de 25, 50 e 100 anos. A pesquisa ocorreu em etapas: foram aplicados os métodos de distribuição temporal de chuvas de Huff 1º quartil e blocos alternados para análise dos hidrogramas de cheia na região central da cidade, próxima ao mercado municipal, área sujeita a inundações frequentes. Na sequência, foram traçadas as manchas de inundação resultantes por meio de Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG); cadastrados os imóveis residenciais e comerciais (objetos de estudo) presentes na mancha de inundação; desenvolvido um banco de dados em plataforma SIG com as informações dos imóveis; definidas as profundidades de submersão dos imóveis cadastrados para as condições de contorno do estudo. Finalmente, foram calculados os prejuízos aos imóveis cadastrados decorrentes das profundidades de submersão para os cenários estudados pelos diferentes métodos de distribuição das chuvas. Conclui-se que a alteração do método de distribuição temporal das chuvas pode trazer incertezas quanto à transformação da chuva em vazão e, dessa forma, introduzir diferenças significativas nos resultados. Porém, percebeu-se que essas diferenças possuem correlação direta com o processo de infiltração da água no solo, que por sua vez influi no volume da precipitação efetiva, a qual gerará o escoamento superficial. A variação dos resultados em relação aos métodos de distribuição temporal da chuva para os prejuízos econômicos diretos alcançaram valores da ordem de R$ 750.000,00 pelo método de Huff 1º quartil e da ordem de R$ 5.200.000,00 pelo método dos blocos alternados com pico na metade da duração da chuva para o mesmo tempo de retorno e cenário de uso e ocupação do solo.Dessa forma, além da forte influência dos métodos de distribuição temporal das chuvas, os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os prejuízos diretos das inundações urbanas são também afetados pelos cenários de ocupação vislumbrados para a bacia hidrográfica e pelos valores do período de retorno adotado para a tormenta de projeto. Levando em consideração esses três fatores observou-se que, para certas situações, houve uma grande sensibilidade frente aos eventos simulados a qual foi constatada em uma análise das variáveis estatísticas aplicadas ao estudo. / Urban flooding in Brazil is mainly caused by urban development that has increased since 60\'s decade. Floods cause problems such as: human loss, public health problems, degradation of water quality and economic loss of billions of reais. Therefore, this research aimed to examine the damage caused by flooding in the Gregory watershed located in São Carlos - SP, by two methods of temporal distribution of intense rainfall. The area of study is located in an area subject to flooding, in the central region of the city, next to the municipal market. It was considered six alternative scenarios of land use and return period of 25, 50 and 100 years. First it were applied the methods of temporal distribution of rainfall from Huff 1st quartile and alternating blocks for analysis of runoff hydrographs. In the sequence, it was traced the resulting flooding spots by the Geographic Information System (GIS); it was registered the residential and commercial properties (objects of study) in the flooding spot; it was generated a database on GIS platform with the properties information; it was defined the submersion depths of the registered properties for the studied boundary conditions. Finally the damage was calculated for the registered properties arising from the submersion depths and the scenarios studied by different methods of distribution of rainfall. It was concluded that the change in the method of temporal distribution of rainfall may introduce uncertainties on the transformation of rainfall to flow and, thus, introduce significant differences in the results. However, it was noticed that these differences are directly correlated to the soil infiltration process. That process influences the net storm rainfall volume, which generates the runoff. The direct economic damage reached values of R$ 750,000.00 using the temporal distribution of rainfall from the Huff 1st quartile method. On the other hand, the alternating blocks method estimated the damages of R$ 5,200,000.00, with a peak in the mid of the rain duration for the same return period adopted to the rainfall project. Considering these three factors, it was observed that for certain situations there was a great sensitivity of the simulated events which were identified in a statistical analysis of the variables applied to the study.
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