This research attempts to construct the dynamic model of forming process in Subprime Crisis by systemic thinking and find out the solution by using Archetype. We extensively review literature concerning Subprime Mortgage, Credit transaction, System Dynamics, and Finance. Then based on these literature, this research would construct Causal Feedback Loop Diagram to search for Leverage Solution and hopes to resolve the financial problem fundamentally. After reviewing previous literature, most articles only focus on short-term and limited discussion, so this research attempts to put them together by Causal Feedback Loop Diagram. Through analysis, this research find out the concealed Values behind Subprime Crisis, that is the pursuit of capitalism ,in other words, it means decision-makers only care about short-term benefits lack of consideration of the consequence. So the more effective strategy is ¡§to hold Management Flight Simulator Seminar for managers¡¨ and ¡§to increase the opportunity for the general public to get access to system thinking.¡¨ Furthermore, we also discover that ¡§Moral Courage¡¨ cannot be neglected in the recent Subprime Crisis. If we continue to limit our thinking, the financial crisis would never end and would happen again and again. The better way is to strengthen risk control and to hold a value system when facing chain reaction of the Subprime Crisis.

The importance of the financial markets has constantly been increasing during the last few decades. With the increase of the importance of the financial markets the popularity and importance of financial reporting have also increased dramatically. The importance of financial reporting has logically created a need for a lot of research in the area. It is for instance important to understand the links financial reporting has with the different parts of the business and its implications on them and the business in general. Based on that the research conducted has focus on the following research issue – identify, understand and explain the implications of financial reporting on leadership’s decision making process as well as identify, understand and explain their effects on leadership’s strategic choices. The aim of the research process is to reach some general conclusions on the issue derived from a certain context – the crisis in the financial sector originating from the US subprime mortgage crisis as well as provide basis for further research on the issue.

<p>The importance of the financial markets has constantly been increasing during the last few decades. With the increase of the importance of the financial markets the popularity and importance of financial reporting have also increased dramatically.</p><p>The importance of financial reporting has logically created a need for a lot of research in the area. It is for instance important to understand the links financial reporting has with the different parts of the business and its implications on them and the business in general. Based on that the research conducted has focus on the following research issue – identify, understand and explain the implications of financial reporting on leadership’s decision making process as well as identify, understand and explain their effects on leadership’s strategic choices.</p><p>The aim of the research process is to reach some general conclusions on the issue derived from a certain context – the crisis in the financial sector originating from the US subprime mortgage crisis as well as provide basis for further research on the issue.</p>

Le marché boursier marocain a connu une chute brutale sans précédent à cause de la crise de subprimes américaines qui a été déclenchée à l'été 2007, l'indice MASI a perdu 20% en même année, donc nous pouvons parler sur un krach boursier. La bourse des valeurs a connu en Mars 2008 une volatilité de 70 milliards de dirhams. La baisse du marché boursier risque de se prolonger et que le sinistre scénario des années (2007-2009) pendant lesquelles la bourse a connu une chute du cours de l'indice MASI pourrait se reproduire. L'objet de notre thèse est de proposer une analyse empirique détaillée des rendements de l'indice MASI, de choisir les portefeuilles efficients, plus un modèle économétrique qui enregistre le score le plus bas de violations c'est-à-dire qu'il assure la meilleure couverture possible contre les risques baissiers du marché quel que soit le niveau de la volatilité atteint par le marché boursier marocain. Pour atteindre cet objectif nous faisons appel aux modèles Markowitz et Value at Risk. / The Moroccan stock market had experienced an unmatched Sharp collapse due to the subprime crisis that happened in the USA on summer 2007, the index of MASI lost 20% in the same year, thus we can talk here about a crash of stock. In 2008, the stock market lost 70 billion MAD. It is possible that it will continue decreasing, and that the scenario of 2007 - 2009 will happen again. The purpose of this thesis is to suggest a detailed empirical analysis of the yields of MASI index and choose the most efficient portfolios, and an econometric model that can record the lowest score of the violations, in other words, it can guarantee the best cover against the downside market risk Whatever the level of the volatility reached by the Moroccan stock market, to achieve this goal we use the Markowitz model and Value at Risk.

The subprime financial crisis revealed some of risks that were not considered as a priority. Among others, a liquidityrisk is now considered as one of the main risks to work with by all institutions. Apart from that, it became obviousthat traditional risk management focused only on what was known and expected, ignoring analysis and testing eventswith low probability but high impact. Lastly, the subprime crisis left a number of lessons in relation to the regulationfor financial markets that must be considered when creating a new regulatory system. / La crisis subprime dejó al descubierto una serie de riesgos financieros que, hasta antes de la crisis, no eran consideradoscomo prioritarios. Entre otros, el riesgo de liquidez se ve ahora como uno de los principales temas a abordar por partede todas las instituciones. Adicionalmente, quedó en evidencia que la administración de riesgos se enfocaba solamenteen lo conocido y esperado, dejando de lado el análisis y evaluación de eventos de baja probabilidad de ocurrencia, peroalto impacto. Por último, la crisis subprime deja ciertas lecciones en torno a la regulación de los mercados financierosque se deben tener en cuenta al momento de redactar nuevos marcos regulatorios.

nÃo hà / O objetivo deste trabalho à apresentar uma interpretaÃÃo da crise financeira norte-americana iniciada em 2007, analisando as estruturas de financiamentos hipotecÃrios e os processos de endividamento das famÃlias americanas, de acordo com o arcabouÃo teÃrico sugerido por Hyman Minsky, utilizando seus estudos da Instabilidade Financeira. Destacamos dois elementos relevantes no processo de crise. O primeiro deles tem a ver com o fato das crises se portarem em ciclos, com inÃcio em uma fase de boom onde o cenÃrio macroeconÃmico à favorÃvel, atà que algum evento exÃgeno altera o cenÃrio e os agentes endividados, tornam-se insolventes. A partir daÃ, em busca de moeda para fazer frente a situaÃÃes de escassez monetÃria, passarÃo a liquidar seus ativos a preÃos cada vez menores e assim entra-se na fase de colapso. O segundo elemento à relacionado à excessiva liberalizaÃÃo financeira, ou seja, um problema da prÃpria estrutura do sistema financeiro que ao possuir um carÃter pouco regulado, especialmente com o advento de inovaÃÃes financeiras, contribuiria para a fragilizaÃÃo de todo o sistema. A monografia procura demonstrar, portanto, que a instabilidade econÃmica ocorrida na crise norte-americana de 2007 tem relaÃÃo com a fragilidade do sistema financeiro, como Minsky evidencia em suas teorias. / The objective of this paper is to present an interpretation of the U.S. financial crisis started in 2007, analyzing the structures and processes mortgages indebtedness of U.S. households, according to the theoretical framework suggested by Hyman Minsky, using his studies Financial Instability . Featuring two important elements in the process of crisis. The first has to do with the fact that crises behave in cycles, beginning in a boom phase where the macroeconomic environment is favorable, until some exogenous event changes the scenario and the agents indebted, become insolvent. From there, in search of money to cope with shortages monetary, will liquidate its assets at ever lower prices and thus enters into the stage of collapse. The second element is related to excessive financial liberalization, ie a problem of the very structure of the financial system that has a character loosely regulated, especially with the advent of financial innovations, would contribute to weakening the whole system. The paper seeks to show, therefore, that the economic instability that occurred in the American crisis of 2007 has to do with the fragility of the financial system, as Minsky shows in their theories.

Over the last decade, the United States had experienced a boom and bust in the subprime mortgage market. The ups and downs of the subprime mortgage market became a primary factor triggering the most severe global economic recession since the Great Depression. The dissertation contributes to the literature by inquiring whether the subprime lending has exacerbated social inequity between subprime neighborhoods and other neighborhoods, through analyzing the subprime mortgage market in the Philadelphia MSA from 2000 through 2010, and focusing on two research questions: (1) the spatial distribution of subprime mortgages across census tracts; (2) the relationship between subprime intensities and housing price variations across zip-code areas. As the dissertation's study area expands from an urban to a MSA, spatial heterogeneity merits attention in this relative huge area. As a result, this dissertation not only employs a global, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, but also a local, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to examine spatial variations across different neighborhoods. For the first research question, the dissertation finds: (1) a higher concentration of higher-priced mortgage for purchase and refinance in tracts with higher proportion of African-American and Hispanic residents, lower median household incomes, higher-unemployment rates, lower self-employment rates, and higher capitalization rates, after controlling for other variables; (2) the association between higher-priced mortgages and explanatory variables varies across census tracts. Because the dynamics of neighborhood subprime originations are heterogamous, the association between subprime mortgage origination and socioeconomic characteristics may be stronger in some neighborhoods than other neighborhoods. For the second research question, the dissertation finds: (1) subprime mortgage shares have a significant negative association with housing price appreciations during the housing boom period (2001-2006); (2) subprime mortgage shares have a significant positive association with housing price depreciations during the housing bust period (2006-2010); and (3) the association between housing price variations and explanatory variables differs across geographic submarkets within the Philadelphia region. The result confirms that areas where more residents obtained subprime mortgages have suffered more severely than other from the housing market's ups and downs over the last decade. The empirical results can draw broad policy implications. The primary implication is that it is time for the federal government to rethink its homeownership policy. Increased homeownership levels arising from the expansion of subprime mortgages are not sustainable, and subprime lending has exacerbated social inequity between subprime neighborhoods and other neighborhoods. The second implication is that the government needs to enforce the fair lending laws, because the cluster of subprime mortgage origination reflects the unequal opportunities of prime mortgage accessibility across different neighborhoods. The third implication is that the government needs to promote place-based policy making. As the GWR demonstrates, the dynamics of the mortgage market and housing market are uneven across different neighborhoods. Therefore, place-based making can increase the efficiency of public policy. These implications based on the dissertation's empirical results are helpful for designing more efficient, effective, and sustainable housing policies of the United States. / Urban Studies

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-06-16T17:27:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Roberto Tavares de Laforet Padilha.pdf: 601583 bytes, checksum: cc2dd58ff1eb4143113dfc818ed9c270 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-16T17:27:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Roberto Tavares de Laforet Padilha.pdf: 601583 bytes, checksum: cc2dd58ff1eb4143113dfc818ed9c270 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / Nenhuma / Diversos estudos têm pesquisado sobre estrutura de capital e os fatores determinantes que influenciam no nível de endividamento das empresas. Variáveis internas das empresas como tamanho, rentabilidade, tangibilidade, risco, crescimento, liquidez e market to book value, assim como fatores externos como PIB, taxa de juros, taxa de câmbio, renda per capita, inflação e carga fiscal, foram estudadas por diversos autores como possíveis fatores determinantes da estrutura de capital. Todavia, pouco esses estudos conseguiram resultar em consenso pelos autores. Durand (1952) e Modigliani e Miller (1958, 1963) foram os pioneiros nas pesquisas sobre estrutura de capital das empresas. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo é investigar sobre a estrutura de capital e seus determinantes de empresas de cinco países latino-americanos, sendo eles Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia e México, assim como os analisar os impactos da crise Subprime de 2008 na forma como estas empresas captaram recursos, através de dívidas ou de capital próprio. Para isto, utiliza-se o modelo de regressão com dados em painel, onde foi incluído na equação dados de 231 empresas entre os anos de 2003 e 2013. No modelo estimou-se a equação utilizando estimativas com técnicas específicas de efeitos fixos e aleatórios para decisão do modelo de regressão, realizando testes de Hausman, Wald e do log verossimilhança para avaliar a consistência das variáveis incluídas no modelo. Os resultados encontrados neste estudo confirmam as relevâncias das variáveis tamanho, rentabilidade, tangibilidade, risco, liquidez, market to book value e impostos na determinação do grau de endividamento das empresas. / Several studies have investigated the capital structure and the determinants that influence the level of indebtedness of companies. Internal variables of companies such as size, profitability, leverage, risk, growth, liquidity and market to book, as well as external factors such as GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, per capita income, inflation and tax burden, have been studied by several authors as potential determinants of capital structure. These studies, however, have not resulted in consensus by the authors. Durand (1952) as well as Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963) were pioneers doing research on companies' capital structure. The objective of this study is to investigate the capital structure and its determinants in companies located in five Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, as well as analyze the impact of the 2008 Subprime crisis in the way these companies raised funds, through debt or equity. For this purpose, it is used the regression model with panel data, which included in the equation data of 231 companies between the years 2003 and 2013. In the model estimated the equation using the estimates with specific techniques of fixed and random effects regression model decision, performing Hausman, Wald and log likelihood tests to evaluate the consistency of the variables included in the model. The results of this study confirm the relevance of variable size, profitability, leverage, risk, liquidity, market to book value and taxes in determining the degree of indebtedness of companies.

Este trabalho testa, através da metodologia de cópulas, a hipótese de contágio financeiro entre ações brasileiras e índices de mercado dos países que deram origem às crises do Terror em 2001, da Argentina em 2001, dos Subpprimes em 2007 e do Débito Soberano Europeu em 2009. Além disso, ainda é feita uma análise dos setores econômicos que mais foram afetados por cada crise. Os testes da crise do Terror apresentaram evidências de contágio do SP500 para 24 ações brasileiras, afetando, principalmente os setores ligado à indústria e à energia. As crises da Argentina e do Débito Soberano Europeu apresentaram evidências de contágio dos índices Merval e Athex para apenas 3 empresas. A crise dos Subprimes apresentou evidências de contágio do SP500 para 35 empresas brasileiras, sendo a maioria ligada aos setores financeiros, de energia e industrial. 7 ações foram afetadas pelas duas crises norteamericanas. Os resultados reforçam a importância da análise de contágio em cada empresa individual, ao invés de utilizar o índice do mercado brasileiro como um todo. / This paper tests, through the copulas methodology, the hypothesis of financial contagion between the individual Brazilian stocks and the market indices of the countries where the crises were originated. The crises analyzed are the Terror crisis in 2001, the Argentina’s crisis in 2001, the Subprime crisis in 2007 and the Sovereign Debt crisis in 2009. In addition to this, the Brazilian economic sectors are examined in order to find out which were most affected by each crisis. The tests of the Terror crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion to 24 Brazilian stocks, affecting, mainly, sectors related to industry and energy. The Argentina’s crisis and the European Sovereign Debt crisis presented contagion’s evidence of the Merval and Athex indices for only 3 Brazilian companies. The Subprimes crisis presented evidence of SP500 contagion for 35 Brazilian companies, mostly related to the financial, energy and industrial sectors. 7 Brazilian stocks were affected by both American crises. The results reinforce the importance of contagion analysis in each individual company, rather than using the Brazilian market index.

Resulting from the deregulation and prosperity of the economic and financial sectors in Asia during 1980s, a significant increase in cross-bordered financial transactions ultimately accelerated the region of Southeast Asia to be on a process of financial integration and consequently diminished opportunities for portfolio diversification. Financial Integration is a multidimensional process through which allocation of financial assets becomes lastly borderless. This purpose of this paper is to examine a progress thus far in capital market integration or preferentially, the co-movement of the equity markets between the U.S. and the Southeast Asian nations: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines by employing the methodology of Gregory and Hansen Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis (ECM). The consequence of the U.S. market performance on each Southeast Asian national markets are extensively analyzed by decomposing monthly price-index time series into three distinct sub-periods based on an occurrence of the Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis in 2007. The results indicate that these four emerging markets had been considerable influenced by the U.S. market performance, regardless of crisis or non-crisis periods. Nevertheless, some countries like Indonesia and the Philippines acted differently during the pre-crisis and crisis sub-periods respectively due to their domestic market infrastructure and regulation adjustment. However, these two markets had eventually turned to share an interdependent long-run relationship with the U.S. equity market since the ending of the Subprime financial downturn. Moreover, this finding suggests that ongoing capital market integration in the Southeast Asian region would mitigate portfolio diversification benefits for investors by virtue of increasing in correlation among securities and assets. Therefore, more exhaustive investigation about equity market integration is significantly beneficial in macroeconomic and financial perspective.