Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo. 2014 / A number of previous research studies have investigated volatility and financial risks in the ermeging markets. This dissertation investigates stock returns volatility and financial risks in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The investigation is con- ducted in modelling volatility using Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalised Au- toregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARMA-GARCH)-type models. Daily data of the log returns at the JSE over the period 08 January, 2002 to 30 December, 2011 is used. The results suggest that daily returns can be characterised by an ARMA (1, 0) process. Empirical results show that ARMA (1, 0)-GARCH (1, 1) model achieves the most accurate volatility forecast. Modelling tail behaviour of rare and extreme events is an important issue in the risk management of a financial portfolio. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is applied to quantify upper extreme returns. Generalised Ex- treme Value (GEV) distribution is used to model the behaviour of extreme returns. Empirical results show that the Weibull distribution can be used to model stock re- turns on the JSE. In using the Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD), the modelling framework used accommodates ARMA and GARCH models. The GPD is applied to ARMA-GARCH filtered returns series and the model is referred to as the ARMA- GARCH-GPD model. The threshold value is estimated using Pareto quantile plot while peak-over-threshold approach is used to model the upper extreme returns. In general, the ARMA-GARCH-GPD model produces more accurate estimates of ex- treme returns than the ARMA-GARCH model. The out of sample forecast indicates that the ARMA (1, 3)-GARCH (1, 1) model provides the most accurate results.

The life insurance business is currently going through a lot of changes. The turmoil in stock markets during the last years has made regulators realize that there is a greater need for risk management and solvency supervision in the business. Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to react to this and in 2001 the Danish FSA implemented a stress test called the Traffic Lights System. This is a tool to measure various risks in different scenarios for financial institutions. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the effects of imposing a Danish style stress test on the Swedish life insurance market. In order to analyze the various effects of this stress test a theoretical framework consisting of fixed income securities and interest rate theory have been applied, since one of the largest risk a life insurer faces is the interest rate risk. Due to the fact that the Danish stress test is not fully applicable on the Swedish market, the authors created a model based on the Danish test to analyze Swedish life insurers. The model estimates the financial risks a life insurer faces. Analyzing the results based on the model, the authors found that three out of seven life insurers in the sample had solvency problems to various extend. The authors conclude that a great part of financial risks within life insurers can be reduced by reallocating equity holding to bonds and by duration matching between assets and liabilities. The authors also conclude that Swedish life insurers are in better financial shape today than their Danish counterparts were in 2001, which is why less dramatic effect is to be expected on the Swedish financial markets as a result of imposing the stress test.

<p>The life insurance business is currently going through a lot of changes. The turmoil in stock markets during the last years has made regulators realize that there is a greater need for risk management and solvency supervision in the business. Denmark was one of the first countries in Europe to react to this and in 2001 the Danish FSA implemented a stress test called the Traffic Lights System. This is a tool to measure various risks in different scenarios for financial institutions.</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the effects of imposing a Danish style stress test on the Swedish life insurance market. In order to analyze the various effects of this stress test a theoretical framework consisting of fixed income securities and interest rate theory have been applied, since one of the largest risk a life insurer faces is the interest rate risk. Due to the fact that the Danish stress test is not fully applicable on the Swedish market, the authors created a model based on the Danish test to analyze Swedish life insurers. The model estimates the financial risks a life insurer faces. Analyzing the results based on the model, the authors found that three out of seven life insurers in the sample had solvency problems to various extend.</p><p>The authors conclude that a great part of financial risks within life insurers can be reduced by reallocating equity holding to bonds and by duration matching between assets and liabilities. The authors also conclude that Swedish life insurers are in better financial shape today than their Danish counterparts were in 2001, which is why less dramatic effect is to be expected on the Swedish financial markets as a result of imposing the stress test.</p>

Currently, the companies are exposed to many kinds of risk during the business, especially in case of activities which are overlapping the frontiers of inland market. Risk-aversive businessmen tend to minimize or even eliminate those risks so that they use different types of hedging instruments. The derivatives are a good choice but they are not able to meet all clients' needs sufficiently in their classic simple form at present. That is the reason for rise of their new combinations and modifications which are so-called "tailor-made" for each company separately. The purpose of this paper is to create the compact overview about those "second generation" products and show the interest and currency risk hedging options.

On propose d'analyser la gestion de la dette publique pour montrer que, si l’on tient compte des critères d’optimalité, la dette publique peut être un choix de financement du déficit public plus judicieux par rapport à la hausse des prélèvements obligatoires ou au seigneuriage. Pour ce faire, une étude comparative entre ces trois modes de financement est menée en tenant compte de leur faisabilité institutionnelle et en revisitant la notion d’optimalité d’un point de vue financier, i.e. compte-tenu des impacts sur la santé financière de l’Etat et d’un point de vue économique, i.e. par rapport à la performance économique du pays. Il est montré que la sous optimalité ou la non optimalité de la hausse des prélèvements obligatoires ou du seigneuriage peut être un motif incitant le Gouvernement à financer le déficit public par endettement. Toutefois, il est montré également que ce dernier doit répondre à des critères d’optimalité sinon il ne peut être considéré comme efficace. Par la suite, on montre que pour atteindre l’optimalité de la dette publique, le Gouvernement doit veiller à sa soutenabilité. Autrement dit, le Gouvernement doit éviter que la dette publique ne suive une tendance explosive qui risque de la rendre non optimale. Enfin, on met en avant le rôle que jouent les risques financiers dans la gestion de la dette publique pour montrer que c’est en partie la mauvaise prise en change de ces risques qui rend la dette publique non soutenable et non optimale. / The objective of this thesis is to analyze public debt management in order to show that, based on optimality criteria, public debt could be a more judicial financing choice in comparison with taxation or seigniorage. A comparative study between these three financing strategies is conducted by taking into consideration their respective institutional feasability and by revisiting the concept of optimality from a financial viewpoint, i.e. regarding the potential impacts on public finance soundness, and from an economic aspect, i.e. regarding the potential impacts on the economic performance of the country. The non optimality of taxation and seigniorage could be a motive for the Governement to finance public deficit by indebtedness. However, it must be highlighted that public debt must also comply with optimality criteria, otherwise it will be considered inefficient. Subsequently, it is shown that Government must aim at public debt sustainability in order to ensure its optimality. In other words, Governement must avoid public debt to follow an explosive path, which is likely to lead to its non optimality. Finally, the role of financial risks in public debt management is put forth in order to suggest that non optimal or non sustainable public debt is partly due to failing financial risk management. The case study is conducted in the member countries of the Indian Ocean Commission.

This diploma thesis deals with possible usage of financial derivatives in context of government debt risk management, mainly in the Czech Republic. After the opening analysis of government debt development, the thesis describes risks, which are involved in government debt management. After that it handles with quantification of those risks and of their possible securing, especially with respect to financial derivatives usage. This thesis tries to answer the question, whether using financial derivatives in government debt management is reasonable. To solve this I used an analysis of 2010 data, in which I compare profitability of emission of classical bonds compared to emission of so called structured instruments, i.e. joint of classical bond and financial derivative. In conclusion of thesis there is usage of financial derivatives confronted with their negative characteristics as well as with cases of their abuse.

The Master's Thesis deals with the topic of risk management in a non-financial company. The goal of this Thesis is to create a framework for review of risk management process and to practically apply it in a case study. Objectives of the theoretical parts are: stating the reasons for risk management in non-financial companies, addressing the main parts of risk management and providing guidance for review of risk management process. A special attention is paid to financial risks. The practical part applies the framework created in the theoretical part on a case study -- review/gap analysis of risk management process in a Czech non-financial companies operating in utilities. Risk management process in this company is described with a special attention to management of financial risk. Author's own remarks on the process and recommendations are stated in the practical part.

The authors’ outline of the evolution of the banking sector development assesses governmental approaches to bank regulation and supervision and is a basic regulatory frame-work, needed to reduce bank failures; it characterises steps of the evolution of the banking sector and trends of its development. The discussion focuses on: 1. Initial forming and restructuring of the banks, changes in the commercial banking sector and the reorganising of the banking systems; 2. Change of the role of the national bank and the mode of its intervention; 3. Dynamics of the banking system development in Georgia and the risks of banking activities. The main findings suggest that 1. The Georgian banks overcame the crisis of the 90’s because of having portfolios of assets in foreign currencies and performing of the national banks function in the “lender of last resort”; 2. Regulatory and supervisory practices in Georgia develop from strict regulations to a deregulation that is most effective in promoting good performance and stability in the banking sector; 3. Alongside with the increase of banking concentration and openness the banking competition and financial risks boost too; that could be managed by further development of institutional reforms in the banking sector. There is an assess of the development and weakness of the banking sector. / Entwicklung des Bankensektors in Georgien

Titel: En studie av enskild firma, handelsbolag och aktiebolag - Vilka fördelar och nackdelar finns inom respektive företagsform? Nivå: C-uppsats i företagsekonomi Författare: Camilla Köhler och Petra Alperud Wennemyr Handledare: Markku Penttinen Datum: 2013-februari   Syfte: Syftet är att utreda skillnaderna mellan enskild näringsverksamhet, handelsbolag och aktiebolag och dess fördelar och nackdelar. Genom den empiriska forskningen presenteras för- och nackdelar med respektive företagsform, sett ur företagarens perspektiv utifrån beskattning, finansiering, risker, bransch och storlek.      Metod: I denna uppsats har en deduktiv ansats använts. En kombination av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod har utnyttjats. Teori har insamlats via litteratur, elektroniska dokument och vetenskapliga artiklar. Intervjuerna har genomförts via besöksintervju och telefonintervju, där två organisationer intervjuades. Enkäter har skickats via mail efter telefonkontakt eller personlig kontakt med de olika företagen. Tio företag av varje företagsform fick besvara enkäterna. Empirin har sedan jämförts med teorin i en analys.   Resultat &amp; slutsats: Det är svårt att fastställa för- och nackdelar inom respektive företagsform då en fördel för en person kan vara en nackdel för någon annan. Resultatet av enkätundersökningen visar på att de som idag har aktiebolag är nöjdast med företagsformen, främst på grund av den begränsade ägarrisken. Den främsta fördelen i enskild firma är enkelheten i företagsformen och att det inte krävs något startkapital. Fördelen med handelsbolag anses vara att det inte krävs startkapital samt att det är enklare och kräver mindre administration jämfört med ett aktiebolag. Nackdelarna som framkommer inom enskild firma och handelsbolag är bland annat att förmåner inte kan utnyttjas, vinsten inte kan sparas i bolaget och utdelning inte kan ske. De största nackdelarna med aktiebolag är att det är krångligt att starta och lägga ned. Inom mindre verksamheter ses enskild firma som en fördel medan det i större företag med anställda och stor omsättning är mer fördelaktigt med ett aktiebolag.   Förslag till fortsatt forskning: En intressant fråga är varför så många företag går i konkurs inom fem år och hur de ska göra för att överleva. Ett andra förslag är varför så få företag söker bidrag och vad detta beror på.   Uppsatsens bidrag: Uppsatsen presenterar vilka fördelar och nackdelar som finns inom de tre vanligaste företagsformerna. Uppsatsen skrevs för att vara behjälplig för en person som vill starta företag. Studien ger kunskap om vad som krävs vid uppstart av de olika företagsformerna och hur företagaren ska tänka när företagsform ska väljas.   Nyckelord: Enskild firma, handelsbolag, aktiebolag, beskattning, finansiering, risker. / Title: A study of sole proprietorships, partnerships and limited companies  -What advantages and disadvantages are there in each type of enterprise ?  Level: Final assignment for Bachelor Degree in Business Administration Author: Camilla Köhler and Petra Alperud Wennemyr Supervisor: Markku Penttinen Date: 2013 – February   Aim: The aim is to investigate the differences between sole proprietorship, partnership and limited companies and its advantages and disadvantages. The empirical research presents the advantage and disadvantage with the respective enterprise form, from a perspective of an entrepreneur basis of taxation, finance, risk, industry and size.   Method: This study is built on a deductive approach. A combination of qualitative and quantitative method has been used. Theory has been collected through literature, electronic documents and scientific articles. The interviews were conducted through visit and telephone interview, where two organizations were interviewed. Questionnaires have been sent after telephone contact or personal contact with the different enterprises. Ten of each group of enterprises were asked to answer questionnaires. The empirical data where then compared with the theory in an analysis.   Result &amp; Conclusions: It is hard to determine advantage and disadvantage of each enterprise form when an advantage for one person can be a disadvantage for someone else. The results of the questionnaire survey shows that those who currently have limited companies are most satisfied with the enterprise form, primarily because of the limited ownership risk. The main advantage of the sole proprietorship is the simplicity of the corporate form and that it does not require any initial capital. The advantage of a partnership is considered that there is no initial capital needed and that it is simpler and requires less administration compared with a limited company. The disadvantages that emerge within the sole proprietorship and partnership are that benefits cannot be used, the gain cannot be saved in the company and the dividend cannot be done. The main disadvantages of limited companies is that it is complicated to start up and close down. In smaller businesses private firm is seen as an advantage while in larger companies with employees and high turnover it is more beneficial with a limited company.   Suggestions for future research: An interesting question is why so many businesses go bankrupt within five years, and how they should act to survive. A second suggestion is why so few companies are seeking grants and what causes this.   Contribution of the thesis: The thesis presents which advantages and disadvantages of the three most common forms of enterprise . The thesis has been written to be an instrument for a person who would like to start up an enterprise. The study gives understanding about the upstart in several type of enterprises and how the entrepreneur should think when the enterprise form should be selected .   Key words: Sole proprietorships, partnerships, limited companies, taxation, financing, financial risks.

The subprime financial crisis revealed some of risks that were not considered as a priority. Among others, a liquidityrisk is now considered as one of the main risks to work with by all institutions. Apart from that, it became obviousthat traditional risk management focused only on what was known and expected, ignoring analysis and testing eventswith low probability but high impact. Lastly, the subprime crisis left a number of lessons in relation to the regulationfor financial markets that must be considered when creating a new regulatory system. / La crisis subprime dejó al descubierto una serie de riesgos financieros que, hasta antes de la crisis, no eran consideradoscomo prioritarios. Entre otros, el riesgo de liquidez se ve ahora como uno de los principales temas a abordar por partede todas las instituciones. Adicionalmente, quedó en evidencia que la administración de riesgos se enfocaba solamenteen lo conocido y esperado, dejando de lado el análisis y evaluación de eventos de baja probabilidad de ocurrencia, peroalto impacto. Por último, la crisis subprime deja ciertas lecciones en torno a la regulación de los mercados financierosque se deben tener en cuenta al momento de redactar nuevos marcos regulatorios.