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Fifty-seven Trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) were translocated to the Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge and the Bear River Club Company in northern Utah. The purpose of this effort was to encourage dispersal of the Rocky Mountain population of Trumpeter swans during the winter, and to reestablish a migratory route to southern wintering grounds. I assessed the success of the translocation by evaluating 13 translocation criteria proposed in the literature. In this study I addressed two of these criteria in detail by evaluating habitat quality at the translocation sites and by analyzing potential competitive interactions with Tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). Habitat quality was determined by analyzing the spatial distribution of sago pondweed (Potamogeton pectinatus) tubers in wetland sediments before the fall and after the spring migration of Tundra swans. Sixty-four transects were established within the study sites with 10 sediment cores per transect. Geostatistical procedures were employed to account for autocorrelation between samples. Tuber biomass was not randomly distributed within the studied wetlands. In fact, discrete areas of high values appeared to exist before and after swan foraging . It is not likely that sago pondweed tubers are limiting swan abundance in this system. Thus, the habitat quality of the study sites is sufficient for Trumpeter swan translocation. Potential competitive interactions with Tundra swans were evaluated by examining differences in resource utilization patterns of the two species. I measured body size differences, dietary overlap, resource availability, and the efficiency of extracting available resources. Trumpeter swans appear to benefit from a larger body size and a longer neck because they are more efficient in extracting tubers from the sediment, and are able to exploit tubers to a greater sediment depth than Tundra swans. However, Trumpeter swans incur higher traveling costs due to the larger body size. The trade-off between higher foraging efficiency of Trumpeter swans and higher traveling efficiency of Tundra swans may be a potential mechanism for coexistence. Lack of support by governmental and non-governmental agencies did not allow for more than one year of translocation. Even though the Trumpeter swan translocation in 1996 was successful, I concluded that the Utah translocation program failed because the translocation did not meet translocation goals.

The behaviour and ecology of Whooper Swans (Cygnus cygnus) were studied on the wintering grounds in Scotland and the summering grounds in Iceland, with a view to extending our general knowledge of the biology of this little studied species. Comparisons are drawn between feeding behaviour shown in terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. In Central Scotland Whooper Swans were found to feed mainly on agricultural land and to actively select stubble fields, where they fed on waste grain, from their arrival in autumn until mid-winter. They then changed to feeding on grass from mid-winter until their departure in the spring. They were found to have adopted an activity pattern similar to that of geese, i. e. they were diurnal and flew each morning and evening between a roost-site and a feeding site. The daily activity cycle of feeding varies between habitats, but the differences are not fully explained by functional requirements. The factors affecting the timing of morning and evening flights are discussed. The length of the feeding day increased with daylength and the level of feeding per hour increased so that more time was spent feeding in the spring than at any time during the winter. Although Whooper Swans were found to compensate to some extent for the shortness of winter days by departing to the roost later relative to sunset, it is suggested that it is in the spring when their energetic requirements are highest; they need to store enough energy for migration and breeding and/or moult. The percentage of birds head-up was found to decline curvi-linearly with increasing flock size while the percentage feeding increased. Since there was no apparent relationship between peck rate and flock size, birds in larger flocks gain from increased food intake. A seasonal change in flock size was noted in Central Scotland with larger flocks occurring more frequently between autumn arrival and mid-winter than from mid-winter to spring departure. Although other factors may be involved as well, it is suggested that the advantages of flocking to Whooper Swans may vary depending on whether the food is patchily distributed (waste grain), or relatively uniformly distributed (grass). Differences in the amount of time allocated to feeding and vigilance were analyzed according to age and breeding status, and seasonal changes are discussed. The breeding success of the Whooper Swan, measured using the percentage of cygnets and the mean brood size, was found to vary greatly from year to year. Measurements of mean brood size in Iceland during summer were found to correspond well with those in Scotland the following winter. A particularly poor breeding season in 1979, a year with a very late spring, was noted both in Iceland and on the wintering grounds in Scotland. Whooper Swans are monogamous and territorial. The female does most of the nest building and all of the incubation, while the male remains on the territory, usually either vigilant or feeding. The range of behaviours exhibited by males and females during the incubation and fledging are described and the time allocated to them is analyzed. Displays between adjacent territory holders are described for the first time. These displays were found to be commoner during the fledging period than during incubation. Females were also observed to take part in defence against intruders and it is suggested that an important role of the Whooper Swan's territory is to provide a safe feeding area for the family after hatching. Behavioural co-operation between mates helped to maintain a high degree of protection for the nest and cygnets. Cygnets maintained closer proximity to each other than to their parents and tended to associate with a single parent; usually the female. As cygnets aged, distances between them and from them to their parents increased and their parents spent more time feeding and less time vigilant. The behaviour of non-breeding birds is also described and it is suggested that non-breeders tend to moult in a separate flock from failed breeders. Moult and migration are also discussed in order to provide as full a picture as possible of the Whooper Swan's

The subprime financial crisis revealed some of risks that were not considered as a priority. Among others, a liquidityrisk is now considered as one of the main risks to work with by all institutions. Apart from that, it became obviousthat traditional risk management focused only on what was known and expected, ignoring analysis and testing eventswith low probability but high impact. Lastly, the subprime crisis left a number of lessons in relation to the regulationfor financial markets that must be considered when creating a new regulatory system. / La crisis subprime dejó al descubierto una serie de riesgos financieros que, hasta antes de la crisis, no eran consideradoscomo prioritarios. Entre otros, el riesgo de liquidez se ve ahora como uno de los principales temas a abordar por partede todas las instituciones. Adicionalmente, quedó en evidencia que la administración de riesgos se enfocaba solamenteen lo conocido y esperado, dejando de lado el análisis y evaluación de eventos de baja probabilidad de ocurrencia, peroalto impacto. Por último, la crisis subprime deja ciertas lecciones en torno a la regulación de los mercados financierosque se deben tener en cuenta al momento de redactar nuevos marcos regulatorios.

This study examines how investors can take advantage of Black Swan events by applying an investment strategy that involves investing in stocks that have performed badly during Black Swan events. The stocks are chosen from and compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The purpose is to find out if the investment strategy has had a higher return than the benchmark index DJIA. The results show that the investment strategy outperforms the DJIA by 111% between the years 2000 to 2020, however, the results show no statistical significance. Beta is used as risk measurement to explain the correlation between the portfolios and the benchmark index by calculating CAPM. Standard deviation is used to calculate the Sharpe ratio and thereby assess a risk-adjusted result.

Two species of swan are regularly found in Utah, tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus) and trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator). Tundra swans migrate through Utah. During the fall migration period they are hunted in the state under guidelines established by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Trumpeter swans are occasional visitors to Utah during the same migration period. Because trumpeter swans are difficult to distinguish from tundra swans in flight, they 11 are at risk of being harvested during the swan hunt. In my thesis, I examine the factors that may influence trumpeter swan vulnerability to harvest. Specifically, I evaluated height and velocity of foraging flights for both species of swans and identified characteristics of Utah swan hunters. This information could assist the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources in developing an educational program to reduce trumpeter swan vulnerability. I applied flight dynamics theory to 86 trumpeter and 178 tundra swan measurements. Both speed and height of short-range foraging flights were used to predict trumpeter and tundra swan vulnerability. The theory predicted that trumpeter swans fly slower and lower than tundra swans, and thus may be more vulnerable to harvest. The predicted flight height of tundra swans was compared to observations of tundra swans made at the USFWS Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge. Average body area of the two species of swans was compared. Trumpeter swans had, on average, a 30% larger body area. Combining the lower predicted flight and larger body size, trumpeter swans may be up to 26% more vulnerable on a 3.8-km flight and 15% more vulnerable on a 10-km flight than tundra swans on the same flight path. In addition to current regulations, the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources is interested in implementing a swan hunter education course to further reduce the likelihood of a trumpeter swan being harvested during the swan hunt. I surveyed a representative sample of Utah swan hunters to determine if they would participate in the course and attitudes about current regulations, and to identify specific topics that should be emphasized in the course. My survey suggested that Utah swan hunters would be receptive to a swan hunter education course. Based on the responses, any swan hunter education course should emphasize identification of trumpeter and tundra swans, distance estimation, and regulations regarding the swan hunt.

Drawing from the black swan theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which defines a black swan to be an unexpected high-impact event which people tend to think is easily explained in hindsight, this study explores risk evaluation in relation to conspiratorial beliefs. The hypothesis states that a higher degree of conspiratorial thinking correlates with a proclivity to evaluate risks as being either very high or very low. The method used was a web-based survey consisting of 16 different events, both conspiratorial and non-conspiratorial, of which a total of 291 American participants got to assess the risk by paying a hypothetical sum of money for insuring themselves against the consequences of each event. This was followed by a second survey to assess the participants’ degree of conspiratorial thinking. The first analysis measured the correlation between conspiratorial thinking and the standard deviation of the participants’ money distribution, corresponding to degree of disparity in risk assessment. Based on two clusters that were observed in the aggregate of scores on the conspiracy scale, the participants were divided into conspiracy theorists and non-conspiracy theorists. The second analysis measured main- and interaction effects of what types of events the participants insured themselves against, and what types of events that participants prioritized depending on their degree of conspiratorial thinking. The hypothesis that a higher degree of conspiratorial thinking correlates with a tendency to evaluate risks as being either very high or very low was not supported. The results show that a higher degree of conspiratorial thinking correlates with a lower standard deviation in money distribution, and that the conspiracy theorists insured themselves against the consequences of less likely and more conspiratorial events compared to the non-conspiracy theorists. This study supports the idea that conspiracy theorists tend to follow a consistent conspiratorial narrative, believing in several conspiracy theories and not just one.

A pesquisa traz uma crítica à teoria moderna de finanças em relação à política de gestão de risco, especificamente sobre o Value at Risk, e como ela afeta o risco na economia. O trabalho propõe uma discussão comportamental da ineficácia do VaR e como este tipo de informação pode ser ruim para a economia, por refletir no problema do moral hazard (risco moral) para os gestores, baseados na ilusão de compreensão, ilusão de validade e de habilidade. A dissertação conclui que,ao superestimar a informação do VaR, os agentes alteram seu comportamento para tomar decisão e, com este risco moral, podem gerar o problema dos black swans (cisnes negros). / The research brings a critique of modern finance theory in relation to risk management policy, specifically on the Value at Risk, and how this affects the risk in the economy. The paper proposes a behavioral discussion of VaR ineffectiveness and how such information may be bad in the economy, for reflecting on the moral hazard problem for managers, based on the illusion of understanding, illusion of validity and ability. The dissertation concludes that, to overestimate VaR information, the agents change their behavior to take this decision and, this moral hazard, can generate the black swans.

A pesquisa traz uma crítica à teoria moderna de finanças em relação à política de gestão de risco, especificamente sobre o Value at Risk, e como ela afeta o risco na economia. O trabalho propõe uma discussão comportamental da ineficácia do VaR e como este tipo de informação pode ser ruim para a economia, por refletir no problema do moral hazard (risco moral) para os gestores, baseados na ilusão de compreensão, ilusão de validade e de habilidade. A dissertação conclui que,ao superestimar a informação do VaR, os agentes alteram seu comportamento para tomar decisão e, com este risco moral, podem gerar o problema dos black swans (cisnes negros). / The research brings a critique of modern finance theory in relation to risk management policy, specifically on the Value at Risk, and how this affects the risk in the economy. The paper proposes a behavioral discussion of VaR ineffectiveness and how such information may be bad in the economy, for reflecting on the moral hazard problem for managers, based on the illusion of understanding, illusion of validity and ability. The dissertation concludes that, to overestimate VaR information, the agents change their behavior to take this decision and, this moral hazard, can generate the black swans.