Yes / The energy sector is a dynamic business environment, power plants have to deal with several complex risks, including both technical and non-technical risks. Thus, unexpected risks can disrupt the energy generation processes, with a negative long-term impact. Furthermore, these risks are not isolated, as their impact may affect a series of interrelated risks. To add to this complexity, the assessment of those risks may change with time in a dynamic business environment. This situation makes strategic decision making less effective regarding the successful design of a risk management system. Understanding the dynamic behaviour of a complex system of interrelated risks in the energy sector is very important to achieve a more sustainable overall performance of the power plants. This paper presents a System Dynamics (SD) approach to capture the interdependencies of strategic non-technical risks associated to the customer performance perspective in a risk management system for the energy sector. Several approaches for risk assessment focus on technical risks related to equipment but fail to consider the complex interactions with other risks and neither consider the dynamic nature of the business environment. A system dynamics model with 15 risk factors was built to assist decision makers in understanding the behaviour for such risks affecting the customer performance perspective. The model was validated in a power plant in the Middle East. The model allowed to highlight the impact of mitigating the risk of policy and regulations on the availability risk of the power plant and on the risk factor related to operational and maintenance cost.

This research presents a framework system dynamics (simulation) model that evaluates the effect of maintenance policies on system performance and life-cycle cost. The model highlights factors such as learning, aging and the technological upgrades that occur during the life-cycle of a system. The metrics used to measure the effectiveness of maintenance policies are the system life-cycle cost and cumulative breakdowns. In this research, a varying maintenance policy has been modeled using system dynamics methodology to determine the future performance of the system that is dependent upon its past performance when breakdowns occur randomly. The main objective of this modeling approach is to balance the cost of preventive maintenance actions with the opportunity losses due to system breakdowns. The approach used in this research primarily involves forecasting future breakdowns using an average of accumulated opportunity losses. This research effort was mainly aimed at developing a (framework) model to determine effective maintenance policy for a system and evaluating the effect on the life-cycle cost for various scenarios. This model could further form the basis of a decision support system for maintenance modeling. / Master of Science

Today's technological systems are expected to perform at very high standards throughout their operational phase. The cost associated with unavailability of these systems is very high and especially with the defense systems or medical equipment which can directly affect human lives. The maintenance system plays an important role in achieving higher performance targets. In order to manage maintenance activities in more informed and rational manner, it is very important to understand the inherently complex and dynamic structure of the system. Traditionally maintenance policies are derived from reliability characteristics of individual components or sub-systems. This research makes an attempt to understand the system from the forest level and suggest better maintenance policies for achieving higher availability and lower system degradation. The leverage is gained from System Dynamics framework's ability to model complex systems and capture various feedback loops. The simulation results reveal that with the limited preventive maintenance capacity and within the given assumptions of the model, there exists and optimal preventive maintenance interval which is not the minimum. The simulation results also reflect that frequent preventive maintenance is required at higher load factors. / Master of Science

Population growth and climate change have strained existing water supplies requiring municipalities to shift towards demand management strategies to ensure reliable water provisions. Particularly in the residential sector, water conservation measures and incentives have been utilized to reduce demand during short-term shortages. As water conservation programs are now being commonly utilized as a way to ensure enough water will be available for continued growth, the impacts on a basin-wide scale have yet to be established. By changing the relative water demand for indoor and outdoor uses within a municipality, the amount of water being consumed can thereby reduce the effluent available for downstream communities. This research investigates how the timing of water conservation, water conservation strategy, and population growth impact water availability in a shared basin. A generalized system dynamics model reflecting typical residential water use and availability patterns similar to the southwest United States was utilized. We found that when upstream municipalities focus their initial reductions on non-consumptive demands, downstream municipalities reliant on upstream return flow have to increase their conservation rate to meet demands and maintain population growth. When most of the basin's population is in upstream municipalities, the more influence their change in water use has on downstream water availability. Therefore, consumptive conservation should be the priority of basin-wide conservation programs to ensure return flow is sufficient to satisfy the demands of downstream municipalities. / Master of Science / Population growth and climate change have reduced water supplies for many cities across the United States. This has led to increased water conservation at the household level to reduce the amount of water needed for everyday uses. Efforts like reduced lawn watering and shorter showers have been helpful during short-term dry spells but more cities are using long-term strategies like high efficiency appliances and the removal of green lawns to "free up" enough water for population growth. However, these changes in water use can impact how much water returns to the river and goes downstream for the next city to use. This research looks at how changes in the speed of water conservation, water conservation strategy, and population impacts water availability in a shared basin. Our stylized model reflects typical residential water use and availability patterns similar to the southwest United States. We found that the faster cities within a basin reduce their indoor water use, the greater downstream cities have to reduce their water use in order to have enough available water to meet demands. Also, when most of the basin's population is in upstream cities, the harder it is for the downstream city to have enough water to maintain target population growth. However, reducing outdoor water use first is the best way for every city that shares the same river to stay satisfied.

Thesis (doctoral)--University of St. Gallen, 2009.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T14:49:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacaoestevao.pdf: 2091808 bytes, checksum: 1b20262998161dc17c1dd32a0eaa2646 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-03-18 / This work presents the social and environmental factors related to community Kalunga of Goiás and its area of occupation that justifies the care to determine the possibilities for use of Territory Kalunga. Considering the importance of various interactions existing means of production factors that affect the biological, sociological and marketing, it was developed a modelling system and simulation of production pequi of the Kalunga territory in Goiás using the methodology of system dynamics. The developed system was performed with 200 replicates, assuming a period of 20 years of installation of the enterprise. To perform the analysis of sustainability of the project it was applied of a group of indicators that consider the environmental, social, economic and political. The results indicate that the implementation of a project for the production of pequi is a profitable and sustainable project in all aspects considered. / Este trabalho apresenta fatores sociais e ambientais relacionados com a comunidade Kalunga de Goiás e seu espaço de ocupação que justificam o cuidado para se determinar as possibilidades de uso do território Kalunga. Considerando a importância das diversas interações existentes em meios de produção que atingem os fatores biológicos, sociológicos e mercadológicos, foi desenvolvido um sistema de modelagem e simulação da produção de pequi no território Kalunga de Goiás utilizando a metodologia system dynamics. O sistema desenvolvido foi executado com 200 repetições, considerando um período de 20 anos de instalação do empreendimento. Para realizar a análise da sustentabilidade do projeto foi aplicado de um conjunto de indicadores que consideram os aspectos ambientais, sociais, econômicos e políticos. Os resultados indicam que a implementação de um projeto de produção de pequi é um empreendimento lucrativo e sustentável em todos os aspectos considerados.

Der stetig steigende Flugverkehr führt zu Kapazitätsengpässen an vielen Großflughäfen. Die Möglichkeit des Ausbaus ist häufig aufgrund von Arealmangel und Widerstand aus der Bevölkerung (zumeist durch Umweltgesichtspunkte motiviert) nicht realisierbar. Ein Ausweg bietet hier die Kooperation mehrerer Flughäfen. So kann ein in der Nähe eines Großflughafens angesiedelter Regionalflughafen als zusätzliche Runwaygenutzt werden. Ausschlaggebend hierbei sind die landseitigen Anbindungen beider Flughäfen. Beide müssen zusammen annähernd wie ein Flughafen operieren. Der Optimierung dieses Systems kooperierender Flughäfen widmet sich die vorliegende Arbeit. Es werden zwei Szenarien näher untersucht und bewertet: Konventionelle S-Bahn-Verbindung unter Ausnutzung der vorhandenen Infrastruktur und mit einem fixen Fahrplan (traditioneller Betrieb) Verbindung unter Nutzung einer vollautomatischen Bahn mit bedarfsabhängiger Anpassung der Taktrate Die Modellierung erfolgt hierbei durch eine makroskopische Simulation auf der Basis des SYSTEM DYNAMICS Zugangs nach Forrester. Dieser zeichnet sich besonders durch seine prozessnahe Darstellung aus. In dieser Arbeit wird die Anwendbarkeit von SYSTEM DYNAMICS auf die Modellierung von Passagierströmen an Verkehrsknoten nachgewiesen, die Passagierverzögerung bei der Verknüpfung von Flughäfen ermittelt und der Ressourcenverbrauch, d.h. der Bedarf an Betriebsmitteln für die Verbindung bestimmt. / Steadily increasing air traffic leads to capacity problems at many major airports. In most cases it is not possible to enlarge the airport due to lack of area or resistance of the population (mainly motivated by environmental aspects). One way out is the cooperation of airports. It can be possible to use a smaller airport in the vicinity of a major airport as an additional runway. In this case the land-side connections between both airports are very important. The two airports have to operate like one big airport. This work deals with the optimization of the system of cooperating airports. Two scenarios are analyzed and rated in more detail: Conventional railway connection with utilization of existing infrastructure and with a fixed time table (traditional operational regime) Connection with an automated people mover with demand control schedule For macroscopic modeling the SYSTEM DYNAMICS approach by Forrester is used. The main feature is a very good real world representation. This work shows the applicability of SYSTEM DYNAMICS for modeling passenger flows at traffic junctions, calculates the passenger delay, which occurs between connected airports and specifies the consumption of resources, i.e. equipment necessary for the connection.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T14:49:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Regina Machado de Souza.pdf: 2267991 bytes, checksum: 8d027b752f21409f678aeb40c2f660a8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-17 / This word aimeded to develop a friendly computational tool that, given the expectation of the producer in relation to soybean prices at a future date, help them decide whether or not it‟s worth waiting to sell their produce at that future date or sell in the current date. This work relied mainly with the System Dynamics methodology for model building and testing of Box-Jenkins to obtain the price expectations. The model also allows deriving the likely minimum price to be received by the producer in order to justify its decision to postpone its sale. We found no empirical evidence capable of sustaining the existence of a priori a better time to sell soybeans. / Este trabalho desenvolveu um instrumento computacional amigável que pudesse, dada a expectativa do produtor em relação ao preço da soja em uma data futura, auxiliá-lo a decidir se vale a pena ou não esperar para vender sua produção naquela data futura ou vendê-la na data atual. Para tanto, contou principalmente com a metodologia System Dynamics para construção do modelo e a análise de Box-Jenkins para obtenção das expectativas de preços. O modelo desenvolvido, também, permite auferir o provável preço mínimo a ser recebido pelo produtor, a fim de que possa justificar sua decisão em postergar sua venda. Não foram encontradas evidências empíricas capazes de sustentar a existência a priori de uma melhor data para se vender a soja.

Der stetig steigende Flugverkehr führt zu Kapazitätsengpässen an vielen Großflughäfen. Die Möglichkeit des Ausbaus ist häufig aufgrund von Arealmangel und Widerstand aus der Bevölkerung (zumeist durch Umweltgesichtspunkte motiviert) nicht realisierbar. Ein Ausweg bietet hier die Kooperation mehrerer Flughäfen. So kann ein in der Nähe eines Großflughafens angesiedelter Regionalflughafen als zusätzliche Runwaygenutzt werden. Ausschlaggebend hierbei sind die landseitigen Anbindungen beider Flughäfen. Beide müssen zusammen annähernd wie ein Flughafen operieren. Der Optimierung dieses Systems kooperierender Flughäfen widmet sich die vorliegende Arbeit. Es werden zwei Szenarien näher untersucht und bewertet: Konventionelle S-Bahn-Verbindung unter Ausnutzung der vorhandenen Infrastruktur und mit einem fixen Fahrplan (traditioneller Betrieb) Verbindung unter Nutzung einer vollautomatischen Bahn mit bedarfsabhängiger Anpassung der Taktrate Die Modellierung erfolgt hierbei durch eine makroskopische Simulation auf der Basis des SYSTEM DYNAMICS Zugangs nach Forrester. Dieser zeichnet sich besonders durch seine prozessnahe Darstellung aus. In dieser Arbeit wird die Anwendbarkeit von SYSTEM DYNAMICS auf die Modellierung von Passagierströmen an Verkehrsknoten nachgewiesen, die Passagierverzögerung bei der Verknüpfung von Flughäfen ermittelt und der Ressourcenverbrauch, d.h. der Bedarf an Betriebsmitteln für die Verbindung bestimmt. / Steadily increasing air traffic leads to capacity problems at many major airports. In most cases it is not possible to enlarge the airport due to lack of area or resistance of the population (mainly motivated by environmental aspects). One way out is the cooperation of airports. It can be possible to use a smaller airport in the vicinity of a major airport as an additional runway. In this case the land-side connections between both airports are very important. The two airports have to operate like one big airport. This work deals with the optimization of the system of cooperating airports. Two scenarios are analyzed and rated in more detail: Conventional railway connection with utilization of existing infrastructure and with a fixed time table (traditional operational regime) Connection with an automated people mover with demand control schedule For macroscopic modeling the SYSTEM DYNAMICS approach by Forrester is used. The main feature is a very good real world representation. This work shows the applicability of SYSTEM DYNAMICS for modeling passenger flows at traffic junctions, calculates the passenger delay, which occurs between connected airports and specifies the consumption of resources, i.e. equipment necessary for the connection.

Most power market structures have been developed and implemented without being tested, causing major problems such as shortages and blackouts. The main cause for these problems is the inability of some markets to provide adequate stimulus for new generation investments. The installed generation capacity goes through boom and bust cycles, exposing consumers to potential shortages during long bust periods. With the realisation that the power market has a strong interaction with generation investment, a System Dynamics (SD) model is developed to study how the market interacts with generation expansion. The SD model also allows for market structures and policies to be evaluated before being implemented. It can be an important tool in ensuring that generation expansion is done optimally without the expense of energy security. New Zealand’s generation capacity is no exception to the boom and bust trend. Since the commencement of the New Zealand Energy Market (NZEM) in October 1996, energy shortages occurred in the winters of 2001, 2003 and 2008. As a case study, an SD model is developed to study the NZEM. The results show that under some forecasted scenarios, New Zealand is susceptible to future energy shortages due to boom and bust cycles in the generation capacity.