The paper estimates a dynamic macroeconometric model for the US economy that captures two important features commonly observed in the study of the US business cycle, namely the strong co-movement of key macroeconomic quantities, and the distinction between expansionary and recessionary phases. The model extends the factor-augmented vector autoregressive model of Bernanke et al. (2005) by combining Markov switching with factor augmentation, modeling the Markov switching probabilities endogenously, and adopting a full Bayesian estimation approach which uses shrinkage priors for several parts of the parameter space. Exploiting a large data set for the US economy ranging from 1971:Q1 to 2014:Q2, the model is applied to measure not only the dynamic effects of unconventional monetary policy within distinct stages of the business cycle, but also the dynamic response of the recession probabilities, based on conducting counterfactual simulations. The results obtained provide new insights on the effect of monetary policy under changing business cycle phases, and highlight the importance of discriminating between expansionary and recessionary phases of the business cycle when analyzing the impact of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. (authors' abstract) / Series: Working Papers in Regional Science

In this thesis, we aim to find the effect of economic crisis announcements arising from the US subprime mortgage crisis and European sovereign debt crisis on the market volatility in theBRIC countries. We implement a GARCH model in order to compare the effect of individual news announcements and find that the US crisis had a bigger impact on BRIC market volatility than the European crisis. Of particular note, we find the US bailout had a higher impact than the failure of Lehman Brothers or any European crisis dates that were considered. We then examine the volatility transmission mechanism by implementing a VAR model to create a spillover index. Following, we apply a rolling window approach, creating spillover plots which show that both return and volatility spillovers are affected by crisis announcements. The importance of our results are related to investor decision making, particularly the relationship between market return and risk in developing country markets. Far to our knowledge, no recent literature has compared the two crises in the way we have nor with the datasets we have used.

The Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) of Turkey has reoriented its country's historical Westward-looking foreign policy towards the Middle East because of a freeze in European Union accession, trans-national security issues resulting from the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), and the expansion of its economic interests into the region. The United States should take careful note of these changes in an effort to mitigate any opposition to the AKP’s policies, as well as to better utilize Turkey’s growing clout in the region.

本論文探討智庫的定義及起源，並依其性質與功能將美國的智庫做分類，另介紹著名的美國外交智庫。本論文亦說明美國外交政策的決策環境，探討為何智庫得以參與美國外交政策，以及參與決策過程的方式，並討論智庫在決策過程中所扮演的角色以及智庫在美國興盛的原因。最後分析智庫在發展上可能受到的限制，及探討智庫如何因應未來的挑戰。 / This paper explores the definition and origin of think tanks, classifies American think tanks according to their nature and functions, and introduces some famous think tanks on US foreign policy. This paper also explains the decision-making environment of US foreign policy, discusses why think tanks can participate in the making of US foreign policy, and examines the roles of think tanks in the decision-making process and the reasons why think tanks flourish in the United States. This paper also tries to find out the development restrictions of American think tanks and explores how they meet future challenges.

The diploma thesis compares different accounting methods in the three accounting systems in the long-lived assets area. The dominant accounting system in the thesis is the IFRS. In the first part long-lived assets are described according IFRS. The US GAAP and Czech accounting law are shown only main differences. The diploma thesis describes and explains the cause of differences between all three systems and shows the impact on the financial statements. In the second part of the thesis the outcomes of financial research on companies which presents their financial results according IFRS are presented.

This study aims to describe and compare the differences and similarities for US mainstream media’s representation of two different coup attempts by using Robert Entman’s Framing theory in terms of legitimacy. The chosen cases are the coup attempt in Turkey (2016) which is an US ally, having a right-wing government and the coup attempt in Venezuela (2002) which has a strained relationship with the US and having left-wing government. The research applies qualitative approach to conduct a small-n case study for comparing and analyzing how the media framed the legitimacy of acts and actors during these two coup attempts. This is an attempt to describe the problematization of theory becoming practice for the US mainstream media regarding the presentation of what is legitimate and what is not. The definition of legitimacy is very clear, but the US mainstream media have issues to reflect this definition to the reality.

El texto completo de este trabajo no está disponible en el Repositorio Académico UPC por restricciones de la casa editorial donde ha sido publicado. / A split-mouth, double-blind trial evaluated the effects of a surface sealant on the clinical performance of Class I composite resin restorations. In 16 patients, 27 pairs of maxillary and mandibular molars or premolars with Class I carious lesions or unsatisfactory restorations were restored with composite resin. For each pair, 1 surface was sealed with surface sealant. Clinical evaluations of marginal integrity, marginal discoloration, anatomical form, and secondary caries were performed by 2 experienced operators using modified US Public Health Service criteria 1-2 weeks and 6 and 12 months after treatment. Data were analyzed with the McNemar test (P < 0.05). After 6 months, only 1 (4%) sealed restoration presented a Bravo rating for marginal integrity. After 12 months, the Bravo ratings for marginal integrity were 2 (7%) for sealed restorations and 1 (4%) for nonsealed restorations. Restorations received a score of Alfa for all other parameters at all time periods. There were no statistically significant differences within or between the sealed and nonsealed groups (P = 1.0). The use of a surface sealant did not improve the clinical performance of posterior composite resin Class I restorations. / Revisión por pares

Thesis advisor: Arthur Lewbel / This thesis proposes two semiparametric estimators; one for heavily censored panel models and another one for binary-outcome sample selection models. The first chapter proposes a new panel data estimator, and applies it to investigate whether the key assumption underlying most twin studies is valid. Roughly, the assumption is that differences in twins' outcomes can on average be attributed to differences in observed treatments, possibly after conditioning on observable covariates. The empirical results here cast doubt on this assumption, by showing that a particular outcome, survival, varies by birth order, even after conditioning on health-at-birth characteristics. The proposed panel data estimator is the first one in the literature that simultaneously handles having an unknown error distribution, fixed effects, fixed T, fixed censoring point, and heavy (greater than 50%) censoring. These features are all required to adequately deal with the limitations of available census data on twins. The proposed estimator also allows for coefficients that vary by t, and for a censoring point that is an unknown but deterministic function of regressors. The second chapter proposes a new semiparametric estimator for binary-outcome selection models that does not impose any distributional assumption, nor specify the selection equation. The estimator, however, requires a special regressor satisfying a support restriction in the outcome equation and a variable satisfying the exclusion/inclusion restriction; the former should be continuous whereas the latter can be discrete. The estimators of Klein et al. (2011) and Escanciano et al. (2012) require optimization, but our estimator for the outcome equation has a closed-form expression with no need for any optimization (but the selection equation estimation may still need an optimization). We apply MLE and the proposed estimator to US presidential election data in 2008 and 2012 where Barack Obama won to see to what extent racism mattered; we use a prejudice variable as a measure of racism. Putting our empirical findings in advance, there is evidence that the white Democrats voted less for Obama due to prejudice, whereas the white Republicans acted in a more muted fashion (i.e., almost no change in voting due to racism) or voted more for Obama to escape the stigma of racism. We also found evidence of "own-race favor" by blacks. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis advisor: Paul T. Christensen / The terms “jihad” and “Islamic fundamentalism” appear to dominate world news today. After the September 11th terrorist attacks, people began to wonder if the world of Islam and the world of the West were diametrically opposed and thus doomed to collide. In this thesis I study the work of Samuel Huntington, the leading theorist on the clash between Islam and the West, and his critics. Through case studies of Algeria, Indonesia and Lebanon, all predominantly Muslim countries, I argue that there is not a fundamental clash between these cultures. The conflict that is occurring today is a result of factors such as US foreign policy decisions, and not an existential culture clash. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2004. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Political Science. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

A utilização do modelo de Black-Scholes e suas extensões na precificação de opções é bastante difundida tanto na academia quanto no mercado financeiro. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de um modelo alternativo de precificação de opções em relação ao do modelo de Black na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. Mais especificamente, a partir de hipóteses sobre o comportamento agregado da economia, da trajetória de preços de ativos e das preferências a risco dos agentes econômicos, é possível reconciliar uma condição de equilíbrio parcial, necessária para a precificação de opções, com uma condição de equilíbrio geral da economia. Essa reconciliação é obtida a partir da escolha cuidadosa de pares de preferências a risco e distribuições e possibilita a obtenção do preço de equilíbrio livre de preferências de um derivativo lançado sobre um dado ativo-objeto. O presente estudo utiliza os resultados de uma generalização recente feita por Câmara (2003), que demonstrou como distribuições e preferências podem ser combinadas de forma que se obtenham fórmulas fechadas para precificação de opções. Particularmente, assume-se que os preços do contrato futuro de dólar possuem distribuição lognormal com assimetria negativa, hipótese que resulta em uma fórmula alternativa de precificação de opções lançadas sobre esse contrato. O modelo obtido foi matematicamente contrastado com o modelo de Black, o que possibilitou que as implicações nos preços das opções, resultantes da premissa de assimetria negativa, fossem evidenciadas. Os desempenhos dos modelos foram comparados com base nos preços de mercado das opções. Os resultados alcançados sugerem que , em geral, o modelo de Black apresenta desempenho melhor que o modelo alternativo na precificação de opções sobre futuro de dólar. / The utilization of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is widespread, in both the academe and the market. Additionally, the literature related to its generalizations and adaptations is vast. Of particular importance are works concerning new sufficient conditions for existing risk-neutral option pricing equations. Under a new set of propositions on distributions and preferences, Câmara (2003) derived new analytical solutions for the price of European-style contingent claims. The objective of the present study was to adapt and test an option pricing model that was derived by Câmara (2003). Particularly, the tested model assumes that the underlying asset, in this case the US dollar futures contract traded on the Brazilian Mercantile & Futures Exchange, follows a negatively skew lognormal distribution. The performance of the alternative model was compared to that of the Black model, the standard model used in the market to price such options. More specifically, the performances of both models were measured against the market prices of US dollar futures options. Also, considerations about the validity of the negative skew lognormal hypothesis were made and a mathematical analysis of the differences in the prices generated by the two models was carried out. In the end, although the alternative model produces, in some cases, prices that are closer to the market’s, the evidences suggest that, in general, the Black model performs better than the alternative one.