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The Impact of the Financial Turmoil on the Major Banks of China and Their Profit-Factors AnalysisHuang, Hsiao-Ching 06 August 2009 (has links)
2008 is a special year for the global financial market. The global financial tsunami ignited from the U.S sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused Wall Street financial giants to collapse. The credit crunch in turn caused a contraction in the real economy and the world paid a heavy price for this financial tsunami.
Charles Dickens quote¡G "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times ". Compared to European and the United States large-scale banks, China's banks are less opened and have relatively small exposure to derivative financial products. Consequently, these barriers have led them to limit their losses and write-downs from the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
This thesis studies the major China-based banks¡¦ profitability by comparing these banks¡¦ financial and operational structures, and correlations to several economic factors. At the same time, Fama-French three-factor model was used to verify the efficiency of the China¡¦s stock market.
The conclusions of this study are presented as follows¡G(a) Although these Chinese banks do have economies of scale, but the relationship between scale and profitability is not proportional. (b) Chinese banks are less affected by the financial crisis as a result of the high level of protection and control of the Chinese government, coupled with the fact that most of the Chinese banks¡¦ core operations are net interest income (c) lending activity¡B net interest margin¡B and asset quality are the key drivers for Chinese banks, and these three factors are mostly negatively correlated to the economic condition. (d) Based on the regression result of the Fama-French three factors model and the result of the T test, the relation of the excess return of the Chinese banks¡¦ Shanghai-listed A-shares to both the market value and the ratio of book to market value is significant while that of the Chinese banks¡¦ Hong Kong-listed H-shares is insignificant.
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Διερεύνηση της υπόθεσης της αποτελεσματικότητας της αγοράς / The efficient market hypothesisΠισπιρίγκου, Ευθαλία 03 October 2011 (has links)
Ο αντικειμενικός σκοπός της συγκεκριμένης εργασίας είναι να διερευνηθεί κατά πόσο και αν ισχύει η θεωρία της αποτελεσματικότητας των αγορών που πρωτοεισήχθη από τους Fama και French σε εβδομαδιαία δεδομένα που προέρχονται από το Χρηματιστήριο Αξιών της Μ. Βρετανίας για την περίοδο 1/1/2000 μέχρι 1/1/2010. / The investigation of the efficient market hypothesis with daily U.K. data, testing period from 1/1/2000 to 1/1/2010.
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Size and Seasonality : Using Enterprise Value and the January effect to Investigate the Size effect on the Swedish stock market 2000-2019 .Djerf, Martin, Lundgren, August January 2020 (has links)
In 1981, Banz discovered evidence suggesting that small-cap firms outperform large-cap firms when considering risk-adjusted returns. Banz (1981), called this the “size effect” and raised concerns regarding the ability of current asset pricing models to set accurate prices for assets. This resulted in new models being developed, such as the Fama and French three-factor model which takes the size of a company into consideration (Fama & French, 1992). However, since the discovering of the size effect, several researchers have started to question its existence. (Asgharian & Hansson, 2008) Moreover, short after Banz findings, a study by Keim (1983) introduced results that complements the size effect. Keims study suggests that the size effect is present due to the fact that small-cap firms outperform large- cap firms during the month of January. This seasonal anomaly is called the “January effect” and could possibly be the reason for the existence of the size effect. The purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a size effect and/or a January effect present on the Swedish stock market (OMX) when using Enterprise Value as the measure for size. Enterprise Value has been chosen in order to consider the full capital structure of companies, hence, not solely the equity value. In order to answer these research questions, a quantitative study has been conducted on companies being listen on the OMX during the time period 2000-2019. The findings of the research are that there is no size effect present on the OMX. Furthermore, the research has found that there is a January effect present on the OMX. This paper suggests that the January effect might have been the reason for the presence of the size effect in history, but as of now, the size effect has diminished but the January effect still remains.
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The relationship between the future outlook of market risk and capital asset pricingVan der Berg, Gerhardus Johannes 17 July 2011 (has links)
The most widely used Cost of Capital model is the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The Beta, Which is a key input into the model has proven to be unreliable and provides no correlation with systematic risk. As risk increases, so should the cost of capital of the firm. The Beta is a historic measure of risk and does not capture the future outlook of risk. The future of an organisation and its risk may look very different to the past and therefore the need to calculate the Cost of Capital of a firm based on the future outlook of the firm. The aim of this research was to analyse the different methodologies used to determine the Cost of Capital of a firm in order to determine which models are better ex ante predictor of Cost of Capital in the South African context. Regression analysis was used to make statistical inferences between the measure of risk used and the Cost of Capital model in question. The results of the research has shown that Market Capitalisation and Price to Book ratio are the best proxies for risk when comparing it with the ex ante Cost of Capital models. However, the Three Factor Pricing Model is shown to be the best Cost of Capital model to capture the future outlook of risk. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted
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Överreaktioner på Stockholmsbörsen? / Overreactions on the Stockholm Stock Exchange?Åberg, Andreas, Peltomaa, Henrik January 2019 (has links)
I denna uppsats kommer vi att undersöka om det förekom överreaktioner på Stockholmsbörsen mellan åren 2002 och 2016. Överreaktioner undersöks genom att bilda vinnar- och förlorarportföljer baserat på tidigare månatliga avvikelseavkastningar. Vi ställer en hypotes om att förlorarportföljer kommer att prestera bättre än vinnarportföljer efter portföljformering. Portföljerna utvärderas under ett-, två- och treårsperioder för att undersöka om det förekommer reversals som en investerare skulle kunna utnyttja genom contrarianstrategin. Vår uppsats identifierar kortsiktiga reversals direkt efter portföljformering, men på lång sikt tenderar investerare att erhålla vinst genom att följa en positiv marknadstrenden. Regressionsanalyser med CAPM och Fama-French trefaktormodell genomförs för att få en bättre förståelse av orsakerna som ligger bakom avkastningar i vinnar- och förlorarportföljer. Vi föreslår att reversals inte skapar möjligheter för investerare att nå positivt statistiskt signifikant alfa på Stockholmsbörsen. Möjliga vinster genom contrarianstrategin drivs av faktorer som företagsstorlek och –värde snarare än att investerare överreagerar på marknaden. / In this study we will examine if overreactions occurred on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during period 2002-2016. Winner- and loser portfolios were formed based on past monthly returns to see if investors overreact and by doing that cause reversal effects later on. Our study discovers short-term reversals, but in the long run investors benefit by following the overall trend on the stock market. Expanding our study to the Fama-French three-factor model we suggest that reversals in stock prices does not enable investors to gain statistically significant positive alphas on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. On the contrary, returns are driven by the factors of firm size and -value rather than behavioral biases of investors.
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Market Capitalization and Firm Value: The Size FactorIssar, Rajiv.Issar 01 January 2017 (has links)
Current multifactor valuation pricing models use size (measured by market capitalization) of a firm as one factor to determine the value of a security. The problem with current standard models was that none of them could explain the value of a security consistently and accurately based on current factors and in particular the size factor. The purpose of this quantitative study using existing time-series data over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015 was to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return. There are currently many valuation models but there is no 2-factor model or a model that uses a size factor that includes mid-cap sized securities. The research questions examined mid-cap sized securities for the size factor in a 2-factor model to determine the accuracy of predicting financial returns compared to the current standard Fama-French 3-factor model. The main theoretical framework that guided the study was the efficient market hypothesis that postulates that the price of a stock reflects all relevant available information. Data were collected for historical returns of 15 individual firms and portfolios of securities based on size. Multiple regression analysis methodology was used to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return in the modified 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The results of the study indicate that size is a statistically significant factor in a 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The positive social impact of this study is that it could provide greater confidence in financial markets by providing a fair and equitable means of investment and flow of capital for a robust economy.
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Does the Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model explain portfolio returns better than CAPM? : - A study performed on the Swedish stock market.Rehnby, Nicklas January 2016 (has links)
This essay will compare the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama and French threefactor model and Carhart´s four-factor model, to see which of these models that can explain portfolio excess returns best on the Swedish stock market. This thesis will tempt to validate the three and four-factor models because of the limited amount of research done on the Swedish stock market. The results indicate that the three-factor model improves explanatory power for portfolio returns in comparison to the CAPM, and the four-factor model gives a small improvement in the explanatory power compared to the three-factor model. The results also indicate that all models have a low explanatory power when the market is volatile.
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Nyemissioner i Sverige : Hur valet av motiv och emissionstyp påverkar aktieprestation och bolagsvärde / Seasoned equity offerings on the Swedish market : How the motive and type of equity offering affects share price performance and company valuationDänhardt, Alexander, Gerby, David January 2019 (has links)
Denna studie undersöker huruvida nyemissioners bakomliggande motiv påverkar hur det emitterande företaget värderas efter tillkännagivandet. Fenomenet undersöks på den svenska marknaden, då majoriteten av tidigare forskning bedrivits på utländska handelsplatser. Effekten av olika motiv analyseras för ett urval bestående av 203 observationer under en 14-årsperiod, mellan år 2005-2018, där samtliga nyemissioner genomförts på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm. Studien omfattar både riktade och företrädesmissioner. Avvikande avkastning beräknas på kort och lång sikt i samband med nyemissionernas tillkännagivande med hjälp av tre olika metoder (CAR, BHAR samt FF3M). Således mäts både den kortsiktiga annonseringseffekten såväl som företagets långsiktiga prestation mot index (OMXSPIoch SIXRX). Vidare används även multipel regressionsanalys för att undersöka om samband går att återfinna mellan motiven och avvikande avkastning. Studien finner signifikanta bevis för att underprestation i regel följer nyemissioners tillkännagivande. Negativt avvikande avkastning återfinns i de fall motivet uppges vara antingen rekapitalisation eller generella ändamål. Däremot förekommer ett positivt samband mellan avvikande avkastning och motivet investeringar, vilket indikerar på att dessa företag snarare överpresterar marknaden. Således argumenterar studien för att nyemissioners motiv har betydelse för hur företaget presterar, både på kort och lång sikt, vilket indirekt påverkar företagets värdering. / The purpose of this thesis was to examine if the stated motive for a seasoned equity offering (SEO) affects company valuation, post-SEO. This was accomplished by calculating abnormal returns for a sample containing 203 SEOs over a 14 year period between 2005 and 2018. All companies being listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm during the time of their respective equity offering. By providing three different measurements for abnormal return (CAR, BHAR, and FF3M) as well as performing multiple regression analysis, the study finds significant evidence for general underperformance following the SEO. This is true for when the motive is stated as recapitalization or general corporate-related purposes. When the motive is stated as investment, the study finds significant evidence for post-SEO overperformance.
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Can You Trust Investment Strategies? : An Empirical Study of Five Easily Available Investment Strategies Suitable for All InvestorsStrand, Johanna, Karlsson, Emilia January 2019 (has links)
This study examines the Swedish Stock Exchange during the time period of 1998-2016. Where the purpose is to investigate and compare five different investment strategies to see if these investment strategies can create excess return on their investments, after adjustment for risk. The investment strategies can be found on the internet, and be used after purchasing a smaller amount of money, therefore the results can be applied to all investors independent on their level of experience. The results for the different investment strategies are not clear, the different tests give mixed results which leaves four of five hypotheses unanswered. However, there is one strategy that can be rejected, it cannot beat the market, which is the Net-Nets strategy. In general, one could thus say that the investment strategies can create higher return compared to the market, but that these returns are random. Therefore, it requires a longer time period for the investor as well as higher risk, since one never knows when this large return will be given.
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Governança corporativa e custo de capital próprio no Brasil / Corporate governance and cost of equity capital in BrazilSalmasi, Silvia Vidal 25 October 2007 (has links)
Os mecanismos de proteção aos acionistas e credores surgiram prometendo às empresas que realizam investimentos em governança corporativa obter valorização da organização. Isto se daria porque os financiadores estariam menos expostos à expropriação do seu capital por meio de mecanismos de governança corporativa que assegurassem os seus direitos, o que facilitaria a comercialização de suas ações e títulos, o acesso ao mercado de capitais e uma redução do custo de capital, levando, assim, à valorização da empresa. Dentro deste contexto, este trabalho busca analisar a relação entre governança corporativa e o custo de capital próprio em empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. O presente estudo investiga se as empresas que adotam práticas de governança corporativa, medida pelos níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa da Bovespa, possuem um menor custo de capital próprio associado quando comparadas às empresas que não adotam tais práticas. Para o cálculo do custo de capital próprio foram utilizados o CAPM e o Modelo de Três Fatores com o intuito de verificar se a relação com as práticas de governança independe do método adotado. Utilizou-se a regressão linear múltipla para as análises estatísticas tendo como variável dependente o custo de capital próprio e as variáveis independentes de governança corporativa, grau de alavancagem financeira, grau de alavancagem operacional, os setores, o grau de intangibilidade da empresa e o tempo que a empresa está presente na Bovespa. Foi encontrada uma relação positiva do custo de capital próprio, medido pelo CAPM, com as empresas que adotam qualquer um dos níveis diferenciados de governança corporativa, ou seja, o custo de capital próprio é maior para empresas que aderiram a tais práticas. Nas demais análises, a governança corporativa não foi significativa. Dentro deste contexto, não se confirma a hipótese apresentada de menor custo de capital próprio associado à governança corporativa. Assim sendo, a valorização das empresas poderia se dar pelo incremento do fluxo de caixa esperado e não pela diminuição do custo de capital próprio. Pode-se considerar também que a adoção das práticas de governança corporativa estaria relacionada às empresas que possuem um maior risco associado, e que pretendem reduzi-lo adotando medidas de proteção ao acionista minoritário, ou ainda que o beta da empresa que representa o CAPM estaria mostrando um desempenho superior da empresa com relação ao mercado e dentro deste contexto não estaria sinalizando o risco associado, mas sim um melhor comportamento da ação da empresa se comparada ao mercado. / Protection mechanisms to shareholders and creditors were created promising that companies that invest in corporate governance would be appreciated. This would be possible because investors would be less exposed to the expropriation of their own capital by means of corporate governance mechanisms that ensure their rights and, accordingly, this would facilitate the sale of their shares and securities, the access to the capital market and a decrease in the cost of capital, appreciating thus the company. In this context, this paper has the purpose of analyzing the relationship between corporate governance and the cost of capital in Brazilian publicly-traded companies. This study determines whether the companies that adopt corporate governance practices, measured by Bovespa\'s (São Paulo Stock Exchange) corporate governance different levels, have a lower cost of capital when compared to companies that do not adopt these practices. To calculate the cost of capital, the CAPM and the Three-factor model were used to verify whether the relationship with corporate governance practices depends or not on the method adopted. The multiple linear regression was used to analyze statistics and the dependent variable was the cost of capital and the independent variables were the degree of financial leverage, the degree of operating leverage, the industries, the company\'s degree of intangibility and the time the company is listed on Bovespa. A positive relationship between the cost of capital, measured by the CAPM, and companies that adopt any of the corporate governance different levels was found, namely, the cost of capital is higher for companies that adhered to these practices. In the other analyses, the corporate governance was not significant. In this context, the hypothesis determining that a lower cost of capital is related to corporate governance is not confirmed. Therefore, the companies could be appreciated by increasing the expected cash flow and not by decreasing the cost of capital. We may also consider that corporate governance practices would be adopted by companies subject to a higher risk and that intend to reduce it by adopting protection measures to the minority shareholder, or that the company\'s beta that represents the CAPM would show a higher performance in relation to the market and, in this case, this would not highlight the risk, but a better performance of the company\'s shares when compared to the market.
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