Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T00:28:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 7778858 bytes, checksum: 16803ed7c2489aa7863aa44717c8719a (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, boa tarde Para que possamos aceitar seu trabalho, deverá realizar algumas alterações conforme as normas da ABNT. Segue abaixo: - Na capa: o nome da Escola deve estar em Português. - Na contra capa e na folha de assinaturas, todas as informações também deverão estar em português; exceto o título. - Incluir o Resumo em português. - Retirar a numeração das páginas anteriores à página da Introdução. Em seguida, realizar uma nova submissão. Att on 2016-09-09T16:20:32Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T17:19:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2462733 bytes, checksum: 42b0f77db7736bc5bba5fb9151e9bfe7 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, boa tarde Retirar EESP que consta ao lado do nome da escola. O resumo, precisa estar em outra página e não junto com o Abstract. Por gentileza, alterar novamente e realizar outra submissão. grata. on 2016-09-09T17:35:09Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T17:49:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2161653 bytes, checksum: f9a6629a0d197f07ac895a9744a94dbc (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, Verificar as páginas anteriores à Introdução, pois permanecem numeradas. A numeração a partir da Introdução, está correta. Mas os números devem estar ao lado direito. Aguardo. on 2016-09-09T17:55:21Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T18:10:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2179487 bytes, checksum: edf32ad2e01e1bd9e7b9d944d5979f47 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Leonardo, A numeração deve estar ao lado direito, conforme informado anteriormente. Aguardo. Grata on 2016-09-09T18:17:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by Leonardo Mathiazzi Lagnado (lagnado@gvmail.br) on 2016-09-09T18:37:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-09-09T18:49:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-09T20:03:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPFE - Lagnado - Versão Final.pdf: 2196807 bytes, checksum: 5df765c28e119b9162e7a6ec07a45e4a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-23 / This dissertation is aimed at evaluating the risk-return relationship of stocks by incrementing the Fama and French five-factor model (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) with two new variables. This was done by creating a six-factor model aimed at capturing the size, value, profitability, investment and governance patterns in average stock returns. An additional seven-factor model was also created by adding a herding factor. Governance and herding were chosen as additional factors because of a hypothesis that they would be relevant in less efficient markets such as Brazil. The evaluation of the two model´s performance versus the traditional five-factor model was performed next, as well as the assessment of relevance of the newly added factors. Testing the six-factor model, it had a similar performance to the five-factor model, and the governance factor proved to be relevant in the Brazilian market. Adding the herding factor weakened the results, although the factor still proved to be relevant in some cases. / O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a relação risco-retorno de ações incrementando o modelo de cinco fatores de Fama e French (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) com duas novas variáveis. Isso foi feito criando um modelo de seis fatores que busca capturar os padrões de tamanho, valor, lucratividade, investimento e governança nos retornos médios de ações. Um modelo adicional de sete fatores também foi criado adicionando um fator para o efeito manada. A governança e o efeito manada foram escolhidos como fatores adicionais por conta da hipótese de que eles seriam relevantes em mercados menos eficientes como o Brasil. A avaliação da performance dos dois modelos contra o modelo tradicional de cinco fatores foi então realizada, bem como a avaliação da relevância dos novos fatores. Testando o modelo de seis fatores, descobrimos que ele tem uma performance semelhante ao de cinco fatores, e o fator de governança mostrou ser relevante no mercado Brasileiro. Adicionando o fator para o efeito manada enfraqueceu os resultados, embora o fator ainda mostrou-se relevante em alguns casos.

This thesis provides evidence of size and value premiums in returns in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, through its analysis of financial markets in 12 countries. Following the portfolio construction methodology of Fama and French (1996) we use a sample of 1245 stocks and record that small stocks outperform big stocks (size premium) and value stocks outperform growth stocks (value premium). In addition, we create nine portfolios to test the Fama and French three-factor model and show that the factor-mimicking portfolios that have been documented in the developed markets, SMB (small minus big) and HML (high minus low), also capture most of the cross-section variation in average stock returns in the CEE region. We demonstrate a similar pattern in terms of size return as documented in the U.S. market, but with small differences in the value returns found. Although the Gibbons-Ross-Shanken (GRS) test does not reject the null with 95%, we do not agree that the model completely explains the variation in average returns across the portfolios. The GRS rejects the null at 90% and implies that other factors are omitted from the model. Nevertheless, this thesis contributes to the literature applying asset pricing models to the CEE region, and should provide insights to investors active in the CEE...

Det är sedan länge känt att det finns en positiv korrelation mellan risk och avkastning. Investerare och bolag kan välja mellan flera olika prissättningsmodeller för att förutspå priset på en aktie. Forskare har, med den kända enfaktormodellen CAPM som utgångspunkt, utvecklat en modell som tar hänsyn till mer än bara marknadsfaktorn. Detta resulterade i framtagandet av Fama & French-trefaktormodellen (FF3) som även inkluderar storleksfaktorn SMB samt värdefaktorn HML. Syftet med studien är att utvärdera två prissättningsmodeller, CAPM och FF3, för att kunna bedöma deras prestanda vid värdering av förväntad avkastning. Tidigare forskning, inom området för nämnda modeller, berör ofta internationella marknader samt modellernas prestanda för portföljer. Vår studie utförs på utvalda enskilda svenska aktier inkluderade på Stockholmsbörsens Large Cap för januari år 2011 till december år 2015, genom att replikera tidigare forskning gjord av Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Utvalda bolag analyseras efter regressioner för modellerna för att kunna utvärdera dessa var för sig, samt för att se om FF3 har en högre justerad förklaringsgrad än CAPM för enskilda svenska aktier. Resultatet av studien visar att både CAPM och FF3 är applicerbara för utvalda enskilda svenska aktier. Ställs FF3 i förhållande till CAPM föreligger skillnad i justerad förklaringsgrad, dock är den ytterst marginell. Sammanfattningsvis bidrar studien med kunskapen om att CAPM och FF3 går att applicera på enskilda svenska aktier, men att det inte föreligger någon större skillnad i val av dessa två modeller. / Investors and companies can choose between multiple pricing models to predict the price of shares. With the known one factor model CAPM, researchers have developed a model that consider more than just the market factor. This resulted in the creation of the Fama & French three factor model (FF3), which also includes the size factor SMB and the value factor HML. The purpose of the study is to evaluate two pricing models, CAPM and FF3, to assess their performance when evaluating expected returns. Previous research often deal with international markets and model performance of portfolios. We study selected individual Swedish shares for January 2011 to December 2015 by replicating previous research by Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Selected companies are analysed by regressions for the models to be able to evaluate these separately, and to see if FF3 has a higher degree of explanation than CAPM for individual Swedish shares. The result of the study shows that both CAPM and FF3 are applicable for selected individual Swedish shares. There is a difference in the adjusted degree of explanation between the models but it is marginal. In conclusion, the study contributes with the knowledge that CAPM and FF3 can be applied to individual Swedish shares, but there is no major difference in the choice of these two models.

Notre thèse explore les facteurs de risque et les modèles des facteurs sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. Notre étude est basée sur le contexte du modèle facteur de Fama-French (FF). Tout d'abord, au chapitre 1, nous réexaminons l'applicabilité du Modèle Fama-French à Trois Facteurs (FF3F) et du dernier Modèle Fama-French à Cinq Facteurs (FF5F), compte tenu de plusieurs caractéristiques spéciales du marché boursier chinois. Les résultats empiriques montrent que le Modèle FF3F peut expliquer la majorité des variations de séries chronologiques des rentabilités des actions chinoises A-share. Au cours de la période d'échantillonnage, le marché bêta et le facteur SMB sont des déterminants importants pour expliquer la variation transversale des rentabilités des actions, cependant nous ne trouvons aucune prime de valeur. D’après la comparaison des performances des modèles FF3F et FF5F en présence de facteurs de rentabilité et d'investissement, le Modèle FF5F ne semble pas capturer plus de variations de rentabilités espérées que le modèle à trois facteurs, à l'exception des six portefeuilles pondérées en valeurs qui formés à partir de la taille et de la rentabilité opérationnelle.Dans le chapitre 2, nous examinons si les facteurs FF, SMB et HML, sont des proxys d'innovations de variables d'état sélectionnées (rendement de dividende agrégée, taux de T-bonds en un mois, l’écart de terme et l’écart de défaut) qui décrivent, sur la période recherche, les opportunités futures d'investissement sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. Les régressions chronologiques et les régressions des séries transversales sont réalisées sur cinq modèles comparatifs en utilisant l'approche à deux étapes Fama-MacBeth. Les facteurs FF ne perdent pas leur pouvoir explicatif, avec ou sans la présence des innovations des quatre variables d’états sélectionnées, à la fois dans les examens de séries chronologiques et les examens transversaux. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans l'innovation de rendements de dividende agrégés semble totalement capturée par la combinaison du marché bêta et du facteur de taille. Les facteurs FF ont pu jouer un rôle limité de capturer d'opportunités d'investissement alternatives représentées par les innovations des quatre variables d'état sélectionnées.Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions si les facteurs FF sont des proxys de facteurs de risque de détresse et si différentes méthodes de construction des facteurs entraînent des résultats différents. Les résultats empiriques suggèrent qu'il n'y a pas de preuve significative que les facteurs FF représentent un risque de détresse sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. En comparant les résultats des régressions des séries chronologiques à partir de deux méthodes différentes, la performance du facteur de risque de détresse basé sur le DLI semble légèrement meilleure que celui basé sur le O-score. Cependant, le facteur de risque de détresse n'est pas un déterminant important des rentabilités transversales moyennes, et les facteurs FF ne peuvent pas représenter le facteur de risque de détresse dans la section transversale du marché boursier chinois A-share. / This dissertation is to explore the risk factors and factor models on Chinese A-share stock market based on the context of Fama-French (FF) factor model. First of all, chapter 1 re-examines the applicability of Fama-French Three-Factor (FF3F) Model and the latest Fama-French Five-Factor (FF5F) Model considering several special features of Chinese stock market. FF3F Model can explain a majority of time-series variation of the Chinese A-share stock returns. The market beta and SMB are important determinants in explaining the cross-sectional variation in the average stock returns over the sample period; however, we find no value premium. Comparing the performance of both FF3F Model and FF5F Model on Chinese A-share stock market, in the presence of profitability and investment factors, FF5F Model seems not capture more variations of expected stock returns than the three-factor model except the six value-weighted portfolios formed on size and operating profitability.Chapter 2 examines whether FF factors SMB and HML proxy for the innovations of selected state variables (aggregate dividend yield, one-month T-bill rate, term spread and default spread) that describe future investment opportunities on Chinese A-share stock market during the research period. Both time-series and cross-sectional regressions are performed on five comparative models using Fama-MacBeth two-stage approach. FF factors don’t lose their explanatory power with or without the presence of the innovations of selected four state variables in both the time-series and cross-sectional examinations. We find that the information contained in innovation of aggregate dividend yields seems totally captured by the combination of market beta and size factor. FF factors might have played a limited role in capturing alternative investment opportunities proxied by innovations of the selected four state variables.Chapter 3 investigates whether FF factors proxy for distress risk factor and whether different methods of constructing factors result in the different outcomes. The empirical results suggest that there is no significant evidence that FF factors are proxying for distress risk on Chinese A-share stock market. Comparing the time-series regression results by using two different methods, the distress risk factor constructed based on DLI seems to perform slightly better than that constructed based on O-score in capturing time-series average returns. However, the distress risk factor is not an important determinant of cross-sectional average returns, and FF factors cannot proxy as distress risk factor in the cross-section on Chinese A-share stock market.

Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera och utvärdera Carharts fyrfaktormodells och Fama- Frenchs trefaktormodells prestanda vid portföljavkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden, under perioden 2011–2020. Teori: Denna studie grundar sig i den effektiva marknadshypotesen, Fama och Frenchs trefaktormodell samt Carharts fyrfaktormodell. Metod: En kvantitativ studie med ett deduktivt förhållningssätt. Undersökningen utför tester på den svenska aktiemarknaden under perioden 2011–2020 genom en regressionsanalys. Upptäckter: Carharts fyrfaktormodell har en högre justerad förklaringsgrad än trefaktormodellen, vilket drivs av modellens förmåga att förklara avkastning på portföljer sorterade efter storlek och momentum. Originalitet: Studien särskiljer sig på grund av avsaknaden av forskning på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Vidare bidrar studien till ett forskningsområde för små öppna ekonomier, där den svenska aktiemarknaden ingår. / Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze and evaluate Carhart's four-factor model’s and Fama-French's three-factor model's performance in portfolio returns on the Swedish stock market, during the period 2011–2020. Theory: This study is based on the effective market hypothesis, Fama and French's three- factor model and Carhart's four-factor model. Method: A quantitative study with a deductive approach. The survey performs tests on the Swedish stock market between the period 2011-2020 through a regression analysis. Findings: Carhart's four-factor model has a higher adjusted degree of explanation than the three-factor model, which is driven by the model's ability to explain returns on portfolios sorted by size and momentum. Originality: The study differs due to the lack of research on the Swedish stock market. Furthermore, the study contributes to a research area for small open economies, where the Swedish stock market is included.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an equilibrium model to test relationship between expected return and market risk (Sharpe, 1964). The model research on pricing and return when the securities market reaches equilibrium and investors are rational and investing by diversification based on Markovitz portfolio theory (Markovitz, 1952). Fama and MacBeth (1973) proposed a cross-sectional testing methodology on CAPM and this regression method has been widely used in testing CAPM in developed markets since then. While CAPM is hard to explain more and more market anomalies (excessive return in smaller market value company) in cross section regression, Fama and French (1992) added two more factors (SMB and HML) and proposed three factor model. The empirical results show that three factor model is superior to CAPM in developed markets. Relevant studies have been conducted by Manjuunatha (2006) and Trimech et al. (2015) but show different results. This dissertation will use Fama-MacBeth cross section approach to test CAPM and Fama-French's three factor model in Chinese and Polish stock market respectively. Following Fama and MacBeth (1972) and Shweta and Anil (2015), three sub periods of Polish and Chinese stock market returns ranging from 2007 to 2018 are examined. The empirical results in this thesis...

The aim of this thesis is to examine an empirical relationship between multifrac- tality of financial time series and its returns. We approach the multifractality of a given time series as a measure of its complexity. Multifractal financial time series exhibit repeating self-similar patterns. Multifractality could be a good predictor of stock returns or a factor which can be used in asset pricing. We expected that capturing the complexity of a given time series by a model, a positive or a negative risk premia for investing into "more multifractal assets" could be found. Daily prices of 31 stock indices and daily returns of 10-years US government bonds were downloaded. All the data were recorded between 2012 and 2021. After estimation the multifractal spectra, applying MF-DFA method, of all stock indices, we ordered all stock indices from the lowest to the most multifractal. Then, we constructed a "multifractal portfolio" holding a long position in the 7 most multifractal and holding a short position in the 7 least multifractal stock indices. Fama-MacBeth regression with market risk premia and multifractal variable as independent variables was applied. Multi- fractality in all examined financial time series was found. We also found a very low negative risk premia for holding "a multifractal...

No description available.

Sustainability has become a major societal trend and interest in sustainable investments has increased among investors. The purpose of this study is to investigate how sustainability affects Swedish funds' returns and risk. Since research on the impact of sustainability on funds focuses mostly on investments outside Sweden, this study has limited itself to Swedish funds to fill the gap in research. The study analyzes 67 Swedish funds during 2015-2019 using various models such as CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, the funds' sustainability is measured using Morningstar's sustainability rating. Results show no signs of linear regression between sustainability and results from different models and the results of the study are not statistically significant. Thus, the study concludes that it is not sustainability that affects risk and return among the Swedish funds, but there may be other factors that have not been taken into account in this study. However, previous research shows that sustainable funds perform better and are more stable during times of crisis. This study has not examined the Swedish funds during times of crisis, but this may be an interesting topic for future research. / Hållbarhet har blivit en stor samhällstrend och intresset för hållbara investeringar har ökat bland investerare. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur hållbarhet påverkar Sverigefonders avkastning och risk. Eftersom forskning kring hållbarhetens påverkan på fonder fokuserar mestadels på investeringar utanför Sverige har denna studie avgränsat sig till Sverigefonder för att fylla luckan i forskningen. Studien analyserar 67 Sverigefonder under 2015-2019 med hjälp av olika modeller såsom CAPM, Fama-French trefaktormodell och Sharpekvot. Vidare mäts fondernas hållbarhet med hjälp av Morningstar hållbarhetsbetyg. Resultat visar inga tecken på linjär regression mellan hållbarhet och resultat från olika modeller samt studiens resultat är inte statistiskt signifikanta. Därmed är studiens slutsats att det inte är hållbarhet som påverkar på risk och avkastning bland Sverigefonderna utan det kan vara andra faktorer som inte tagits hänsyn till i denna studie. Däremot visar tidigare forskning att hållbara fonder presterar bättre och är mer stabila under kristider. Denna studie har inte undersökt Sverigefonderna under kristider men detta kan vara ett intressant ämne för framtida forskning.

[pt] Este trabalho busca analisar a divergência observada, quanto à aplicabilidade do prêmio de risco por tamanho, entre a proposta apresentada pela TBG – Transportadora Gasoduto Bolívia-Brasil e a resposta da ANP - Agência Nacional de Petróleo para estimação do custo de capital próprio que balizará a tarifa máxima de transporte de gás natural para a empresa regulada. Tanto a TBG quanto a ANP adotaram o Capital Asset Price Model – CAPM como modelo para estimação do custo de capital próprio, no entanto, a proposta da TBG considerou o prêmio de risco por tamanho, ao passo que a resposta da Agência Reguladora não acatou a inclusão desse prêmio, conforme consta na nota técnica nº 007/2018-SIM de 16 de julho de 2018. Para analisar a divergência em relação ao prêmio de risco por tamanho, foi o utilizado modelo de três fatores de Fama e French (1993), que considera, além do risco sistemático adotado no CAPM, os fatores tamanho e índice B/M (book-to-market) para mensuração do custo de capital próprio. Os resultados encontrados, com base no modelo de três fatores de Fama e French (1993), não indicam aplicabilidade do prêmio de risco por tamanho para estimação do custo de capital próprio no mercado regulado de transporte de gás natural, pois os coeficientes dos fatores small minus big (SMB) e high minus low (HML) não apresentaram resultados com significância estatística para diversas das carteiras analisadas. Adicionalmente, as empresas de menor porte (small) e de alto índice B/M (high) apresentaram, entre julho de 2009 e junho de 2018, retornos médios inferiores às empresas maiores (big) e de baixo índice B/M (low), não evidenciando a existência de prêmios de risco por tamanho e por valor. / [en] The purpose of this study is to analyze the divergence observed regarding the applicability of the size risk premium, between the proposal presented by TBG - Brazilian Transporter Gasoduto Bolívia-Brasil and the response of ANP - National Petroleum Agency, in the estimation of the cost of equity that will define the maximum rate for the transport of natural gas to the regulated company. Both TBG and ANP adopted the Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) model, however, TBG proposal considered the size risk premium while ANP response did not accept the inclusion of this premium as stated in technical note no. 007/2018-SIM of July 16, 2018. To analyze this divergence was used the Fama and French three factor model (1993) that considers, besides the systematic risk adopted in the CAPM, the factors size and B/M (book-to-market) index for measuring the cost of equity. The results obtained, based on Fama and French three factors model (1993), do not indicate the applicability of the size risk premium for estimative of the cost of equity in the regulated natural gas transportation market, since the small minus big (SMB) and high minus low (HML) factor s coefficients did not present statistical significant results for some of the analyzed portfolios. In addition, smaller and high B/M companies presented, between July 2009 and June 2018, lower average returns than bigger and low B/M companies, not evidencing the existence of size and value risk premiums.