M. Tech. (Department of Information Technology, Faculty of Applied and Computer Sciences) Vaal University of Technology. / Cloud computing provides improved and simplified IT management and maintenance capabilities through central administration of resources. Companies of all shapes and sizes are adapting to this new technology. Although cloud computing is an attractive concept to the business community, it still has some challenges such as traffic management and traffic prediction that need to be addressed. Most cloud service providers experience traffic congestion. In the absence of effective tools for cloud computing traffic prediction, the allocation of resources to clients will be ineffective thus driving away cloud computing users. This research intends to mitigate the effect of traffic congestion on provision of cloud service by proposing a proactive traffic prediction model that would play an effective role in congestion control and estimation of accurate future resource demand. This will enhance the accuracy of traffic flow prediction in cloud computing by service providers. This research will evaluate to determine the performance between Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as prediction tools for cloud computing traffic. These two techniques were tested by using simulation to predict traffic flow per month and per year. The dataset was downloaded data taken from CAIDA database. The two algorithms Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) where implemented and tested separately. Experimental results were generated and analyzed to test the effectiveness of the traffic prediction algorithms. Finally, the findings indicated that ARIMA can have 98 % accurate prediction results while ANN produced 89 % accurate prediction results. It was also observed that both models perform better on monthly data as compared to yearly data. This study recommends ARIMA algorithm for data flow prediction in private cloud computing

The resources of mobile networks are expensive and limited, and as demand for mobile data continues to grow, improved resource utilisation is a prioritised issue. Traffic demand at base stations (BSs) vary throughout the day and week, but the capacity remains constant and utilisation could be significantly improved based on precise, robust, and efficient forecasting. This degree project proposes a fully attention- based Transformer model for traffic prediction at mobile network BSs. Similar approaches have shown to be extremely successful in other domains but there seems to be no previous work where a model fully based on the Transformer is applied to predict mobile traffic. The proposed model is evaluated in terms of prediction performance and required time for training by comparison to a recurrent long short- term memory (LSTM) network. The implemented attention- based approach consists of stacked layers of multi- head attention combined with simple feedforward neural network layers. It thus lacks recurrence and was expected to train faster than the LSTM network. Results show that the Transformer model is outperformed by the LSTM in terms of prediction error in all performed experiments when compared after training for an equal number of epochs. The results also show that the Transformer trains roughly twice as fast as the LSTM, and when compared on equal premises in terms of training time, the Transformer predicts with a lower error rate than the LSTM in three out of four evaluated cases. / Efterfrågan av mobildata ökar ständigt och resurserna vid mobila nätverk är både dyra och begränsade. Samtidigt bestäms basstationers kapacitet utifrån hur hög efterfrågan av deras tjänster är när den är som högst, vilket leder till låg utnyttjandegrad av basstationernas resurser när efterfrågan är låg. Genom robust, träffsäker och effektiv prediktion av mobiltrafik kan en lösning där kapaciteten istället följer efterfrågan möjliggöras, vilket skulle minska överflödig resursförbrukning vid låg efterfrågan utan att kompromissa med behovet av hög kapacitet vid hög efterfrågan. Den här studien föreslår en transformermetod, helt baserad på attentionmekanismen, för att prediktera trafik vid basstationer i mobila nätverk. Liknande metoder har visat sig extremt framgångsrika inom andra områden men transformers utan stöd från andra komplexa strukturer tycks vara obeprövade för prediktion av mobiltrafik. För att utvärderas jämförs metoden med ett neuralt nätverk, innefattande noder av typen long short- term memory (LSTM). Jämförelsen genomförs med avseende på träningstid och felprocent vid prediktioner. Transformermodellen består av flera attentionlager staplade i kombination med vanliga feed- forward- lager och den förväntades träna snabbare än LSTM- modellen. Studiens resultat visar att transformermodellen förutspår mobiltrafiken med högre felprocent än LSTM- nätverket när de jämförs efter lika många epoker av träning. Transformermodellen tränas dock knappt dubbelt så snabbt och när modellerna jämförs på lika grunder vad gäller träningstid presterar transformermodellen bättre än LSTM- modellen i tre av fyra utvärderade fall.

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) is gaining wider acceptance among agencies and practitioners because it serves as a more realistic representation of real-world traffic phenomena than static traffic assignment. Many metropolitan planning organizations and transportation departments are beginning to utilize DTA to predict traffic flows within their networks when conducting traffic analysis or evaluating management measures. To analyze DTA-based optimization applications, it is critical to obtain the dual (or gradient) information as dual information can typically be employed as a search direction in algorithmic design. However, very limited number of approaches can be used to estimate network-wide dual information while maintaining the potential to scale. This dissertation investigates the theoretical/practical aspects of DTA-based dual approximation techniques and explores DTA applications in the context of various transportation models, such as transportation network design, off-line DTA capacity calibration and dynamic congestion pricing. Each of the later entities is formulated as bi-level programs. Transportation Network Design Problem (NDP) aims to determine the optimal network expansion policy under a given budget constraint. NDP is bi-level by nature and can be considered a static case of a Stackelberg game, in which transportation planners (leaders) attempt to optimize the overall transportation system while road users (followers) attempt to achieve their own maximal benefit. The first part of this dissertation attempts to study NDP by combining a decomposition-based algorithmic structure with dual variable approximation techniques derived from linear programming theory. One of the critical elements in considering any real-time traffic management strategy requires assessing network traffic dynamics. Traffic is inherently dynamic, since it features congestion patterns that evolve over time and queues that form and dissipate over a planning horizon. It is therefore imperative to calibrate the DTA model such that it can accurately reproduce field observations and avoid erroneous flow predictions when evaluating traffic management strategies. Satisfactory calibration of the DTA model is an onerous task due to the large number of variables that can be modified and the intensive computational resources required. In this dissertation, the off-line DTA capacity calibration problem is studied in an attempt to devise a systematic approach for effective model calibration. Congestion pricing has increasingly been seen as a powerful tool for both managing congestion and generating revenue for infrastructure maintenance and sustainable development. By carefully levying tolls on roadways, a more efficient and optimal network flow pattern can be generated. Furthermore, congestion pricing acts as an effective travel demand management strategy that reduces peak period vehicle trips by encouraging people to shift to more efficient modes such as transit. Recently, with the increase in the number of highway Build-Operate-Transfer (B-O-T) projects, tolling has been interpreted as an effective way to generate revenue to offset the construction and maintenance costs of infrastructure. To maximize the benefits of congestion pricing, a careful analysis based on dynamic traffic conditions has to be conducted before determining tolls, since sub-optimal tolls can significantly worsen the system performance. Combining a network-wide time-varying toll analysis together with an efficient solution-building approach will be one of the main contributions of this dissertation. The problems mentioned above are typically framed as bi-level programs, which pose considerable challenges in theory and as well as in application. Due to the non-convex solution space and inherent NP-complete complexity, a majority of recent research efforts have focused on tackling bi-level programs using meta-heuristics. These approaches allow for the efficient exploration of complex solution spaces and the identification of potential global optima. Accordingly, this dissertation also attempts to present and compare several meta-heuristics through extensive numerical experiments to determine the most effective and efficient meta-heuristic, as a means of better investigating realistic network scenarios. / text

<p>In this thesis we study algorithms and architectures that can provide a better Quality of Experience (QoE) for streaming video systems and services. With cases and examples taken from the application scenarios of football on mobile phones, we address the fundamental problems behind streaming video services. Thus, our research results can be applied and extended to other networks, to other sports and to other cultural activities.</p><p>In algorithm development, we propose five different schemes. We suggest a blind motion estimation and a trellis based motion estimation with dynamic programming algorithms for Wyner-Ziv coding. We develop a trans-media technology, vibrotactile coding of visual signals for mobile phones. We propose a new bandwidth prediction scheme for real-time video conference. We also provide an effective method based on dynamic programming to select optimal services and maximize QoE.</p><p>In architecture design, we offer three architectures for real-time interactive video and two for streaming live football information. The former three are: a structure of motion estimation in Wyner-Ziv coding for real-time video; a variable bit rate Wyner-Ziv video coding structure based on multi-view camera array; and a dynamic resource allocation structure based on 3-D object motion. The latter two are: a vibrotactile signal rendering system for live information; and a Universal Multimedia Access architecture for streaming live football video.</p><p>In QoE exploration, we give a detailed and deep discussion of QoE and the enabling techniques. We also develop a conceptual model for QoE. Moreover we place streaming video services in a framework of QoE. The new general framework of streaming video services allows for the interaction between the user, content and technology.</p><p>We demonstrate that it is possible to develop algorithms and architectures that take into account the user's perspective. Quality of Experience in video mobile services is within our reach.</p>

In this thesis we study algorithms and architectures that can provide a better Quality of Experience (QoE) for streaming video systems and services. With cases and examples taken from the application scenarios of football on mobile phones, we address the fundamental problems behind streaming video services. Thus, our research results can be applied and extended to other networks, to other sports and to other cultural activities. In algorithm development, we propose five different schemes. We suggest a blind motion estimation and a trellis based motion estimation with dynamic programming algorithms for Wyner-Ziv coding. We develop a trans-media technology, vibrotactile coding of visual signals for mobile phones. We propose a new bandwidth prediction scheme for real-time video conference. We also provide an effective method based on dynamic programming to select optimal services and maximize QoE. In architecture design, we offer three architectures for real-time interactive video and two for streaming live football information. The former three are: a structure of motion estimation in Wyner-Ziv coding for real-time video; a variable bit rate Wyner-Ziv video coding structure based on multi-view camera array; and a dynamic resource allocation structure based on 3-D object motion. The latter two are: a vibrotactile signal rendering system for live information; and a Universal Multimedia Access architecture for streaming live football video. In QoE exploration, we give a detailed and deep discussion of QoE and the enabling techniques. We also develop a conceptual model for QoE. Moreover we place streaming video services in a framework of QoE. The new general framework of streaming video services allows for the interaction between the user, content and technology. We demonstrate that it is possible to develop algorithms and architectures that take into account the user's perspective. Quality of Experience in video mobile services is within our reach.

Orientadores: Lee Luan Ling, Flavio Henrique Teles Vieira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T03:15:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sousa_LigiaMariaCarvalho_M.pdf: 2110733 bytes, checksum: 2417de66d2ca06dcb86fbce5e919906e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: O presente trabalho propõe um esquema de controle adaptativo de ?uxos baseado no modelo fuzzy TSK. Neste esquema de controle, o modelo fuzzy TSK é utilizado para prever adaptativamente o tamanho da ?la no buffer em um enlace. Com o objetivo de ajustar dinamicamente os parâmetros do modelo fuzzy TSK, propomos um algoritmo de treinamento adaptativo. Na primeira etapa do algoritmo de treinamento proposto, os parâmetros das partes premissas e das partes conseqüentes do modelo são obtidos. A segunda etapa consiste de um algoritmo de re?namento dos parâmetros do modelo baseado em gradiente descendente. A e?ciência do preditor proposto é avaliada através da comparação com outros preditores adaptativos fazendo uso de traços de tráfego reais. A partir dos parâmetros do modelo fuzzy TSK, derivamos uma expressão para a taxa da fonte controlável a qual minimiza a variância do tamanho de ?la no buffer. O controle de congestionamento proposto é então aplicado em diferentes cenários de rede com vários nós. Comparações realizadas com outros métodos de controle de congestionamento demonstram que o controle de congestionamento proposto obtém menores taxas de perdas e consegue de fato manter o tamanho da ?la no buffer abaixo do valor desejado / Abstract: The present work proposes a adaptive control of traf?c ?ows based in the TSK fuzzy model. In this control, the TSK fuzzy model is used to predict in a manner adaptive the buffer length in one output link. With the objective of dynamically adjust the parameters of the TSK fuzzy model, we proposed a adaptive training algorithm. In the ?rst stage of the proposed training algorithm, the parameters of the premise and consequent parts of the model are obtained. The second stage consists of a re?ning algorithm of the parameters based in descent gradient. The effectiveness of the proposed predictor is evaluated through comparison with other adaptive predictors by using real network traf?c traces. With the parameters of the TSK model, we derive an expression for the controllable source rate which minimizes the variance of the buffer length. The proposed congestion control is applied in different network sceneries with several nodes. Comparison made with others congestion control methods demonstrates that the proposed congestion control obtain lesser loss rate and gets in fact to keep the buffer length below of the reference level / Mestrado / Telecomunicações e Telemática / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Traffic modeling in computer networks has been researched for decades. A good model should reflect the features of real-world network traffic. With a good model, synthetic traffic data can be generated for experimental studies; network performance can be analysed mathematically; service provisioning and scheduling can be designed aligning with traffic changes. An important part of traffic modeling is to capture the dependence, either the dependence among different traffic flows or the temporal dependence within the same traffic flow. Nevertheless, the power of dependence models, especially those that capture the functional dependence, has not been fully explored in the domain of computer networks. This thesis studies copula theory, a theory to describe dependence between random variables, and applies it for better performance evaluation and network resource provisioning. We apply copula to model both contemporaneous dependence between traffic flows and temporal dependence within the same flow. The dependence models are powerful and capture the functional dependence beyond the linear scope. With numerical examples, real-world experiments and simulations, we show that copula modeling can benefit many applications in computer networks, including, for example, tightening performance bounds in statistical network calculus, capturing full dependence structure in Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), MMPP parameter estimation, and predictive resource provisioning for cloud-based composite services. / Graduate / 0984 / fdong@uvic.ca

In my diploma thesis, I applied IT model by Aimsun software on the traffic situation in the city of Blansko. I created my own model showing positives and negatives of planned bridge project across the river Svitava and the railroad corridor applying available information and documents regarding the project and my own data in this specific area. This overpass shall improve the traffic situation in the city of Blansko because mentioned bridge project shall be the second connection of two parts of the city of Blansko that is split by the river of Svitava. In this thesis, I apply the bridge project on the current traffic situation assuming that the bridge project will be implemented in 3 years. I deal with the situation in the city of Blansko with and without implementation of the bridge project.

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Emerging sensors and intelligent traffic technologies provide extensive data sets in a traffic network. However, realizing the full potential of such data sets for a unique representation of real-world states is challenging due to data accuracy, noise, and temporal-spatial resolution. Data assimilation is a known group of methodological approaches that exploit physics-informed traffic models and data observations to perform short-term predictions of the traffic state in freeway environments. At the same time, neural networks capture high non-linearities, similar to those presented in traffic networks. Despite numerous works applying different variants of Kalman filters, the possibility of traffic state estimation with deep-learning-based methodologies is only partially explored in the literature. We present a deep-learning modeling approach to perform traffic state estimation on large freeway networks. The proposed framework is trained on local observations from static and moving sensors and identifies differences between well-trusted data and model outputs. The detected patterns are then used throughout the network, even where there are no available observations to estimate fundamental traffic quantities. The preliminary results of the work highlight the potential of deep learning for traffic state estimation.