Within the broad field of global environmental history this master thesis analyses transfrontier conservation areas (TFCAs) also known as 'peace parks', and explores how the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park (GLTP) has been envisioned, described, motivated and implemented. Using Actor-Network Theory and Framing Analysis, the thesis analyses how the idea of the GLTP and the critique against it has been framed over time through the analysis of official reports and academic research in combination with in-depth interviews with key actors. By approaching the topic of transfrontier conservation in a broad manner, and by incorporating a wide variety of sources, the thesis attempts to go beyond single explanations of the phenomenon and, instead, provide a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the transfrontier conservation idea linked to the GLTP and its history. The thesis shows that the rise of transfrontier conservation involves a complex network of actors, spanning over local-global and public-private scales. Integrated networks are formed between key actors including national governments and conservation authorities, donor agencies, NGOs – in particular the Peace Parks Foundation, and civil society. The GLTP has been framed as a way to achieve three main goals: biodiversity conservation, community development through ecotourism and public-private partnerships, and regional peace and security. The thesis shows that the framing has shifted over time, from a strict conservation focus to more inclusive approaches where social aspects are seen as increasingly important for the long term sustainability of TFCAs. But the idea that transfrontier conservation can resolve all regional problems, from political cooperation to wildlife management to local socio-economic development, is also contested in this study. The thesis illuminates a gap between official policy/management reports and academic studies related primarily to the role of community development in the framing and implementation of the GLTP. Despite various challenges that hinder the effective implementation of the goals and visions of the park such as wildlife crime, insufficient community involvement and problematic legal and policy arrangements, the thesis concludes that the GLTP represents an important contribution to global conservation commitments and needs to be viewed as a complex, long-term and constantly evolving project.

Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs) are considered a suitable strategy to combine nature conservation and poverty alleviation in southern Africa, usually through ecotourism. There have, however, been critical voices questioning whether this is actually succeeding. Many researchers claim that the conservation and tourism efforts are leaving the local communities at greater risks of impoverishment rather than helping them. This study consults previous research to examine this issue through the examples of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA), and the communities living close to its National Parks in Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The methodology used is a systematic literature study of 26 secondary sources. The study finds that the previous research reveals that the experiences of the communities vary between different areas in the TFCA. The general feeling is that of displacement in different ways, except in those communities that have found ways of empowering and developing themselves; through tourism schemes. Otherwise, the attitude from the authorities in the national parks of the TFCA seems to be that the conservation and tourism efforts in the area are given priority over the local residents’ needs. Theories such as systems ecology, sustainable development and deep ecology may have answers to this issue on paper, however judging from the reality presented in the literature used in this study they are not realistic in practice. What is obvious is that economic interests are prioritized in the GLTFCA just as in the rest of the world.

Thesis (D.Admin.(Public Administration))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Summary and abstract in English. Includes bibliographical references. Available on the Internet via the World Wide Web.

MNP is one of the smallest and youngest national parks in the portfolio of South African National Parks (SANParks). The park is also a World Heritage Site because it contains the remnants of the ancient Kingdom of Mapungubwe, which was one of the first sophisticated southern African societies. The park currently faces challenges associated with mining in the area, the development of the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area, the presence of private and agricultural lands that split the park into two parts as well as management issues. The management of national parks in South Africa is guided by a number of principles, one of which is strategic adaptive management, which is used by South African National Parks (SANParks) as the foundation of all the organisation’s management plans. In addition, guidelines and legislation set by various international organisations and national government departments provide structures according to which protected areas, World Heritage Sites and national parks should function. Sustainable tourism is the desired state for tourism. This means that tourism services should be managed towards achieving sustainable tourism. Sustainable tourism is considered a form of tourism that is strategic and that promotes the long-term integrity of natural and cultural resources, so that these resources are maintained as durable, permanent landscapes for future generations. Sustainable tourism strives to achieve economic viability without compromising the integrity of socio-cultural and natural environments. Therefore, sustainable tourism rests on three main pillars, namely socio-cultural integrity, economic integrity and environmental integrity. The primary objective of this study was to develop a tourism management framework for the Mapungubwe National Park (MNP). It is a young national park that faces a unique set of management challenges. Currently the tourism management plan of the park is contained within the overall management plan of the park and it does not address the major management challenges of the park. For this reason it is imperative to develop a management framework in this regard that takes into account the management challenges that face the park in order to ensure that sustainable tourism is achieved. The research approach used in this study included both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. An explorative research approach was followed through a self-administered online questionnaire with the aim of determining the perceptions of visitors about the importance of various management and sustainable tourism tasks and how effectively they perceived those tasks to be executed at MNP. Fifty-four constructs pertaining to aspects of park management and sustainable tourism were measured on a five-point Likert scale. These constructs were determined through a literature review. The sources consulted included the following: Saayman (2009), Swarbrooke (2002), George (2007), Mancini (2013), SANParks (2010), Keyser, (2002:351), Coetzee (2004:184), Himbira, Saarinen, Atlhopheng and Manwa (2010:278), Borges, Carbone, Bushell, and Jäger (2011:8), Sebele (2010:146), Vanhove, (2011:223), Logar (2010:130) and Pedersen (2002:34). The questionnaire was distributed electronically to a database of visitors who had stayed at MNP over a period of 12 months. The researcher also distributed questionnaires manually at the park. Data collection took place during March and April 2013. A total of 486 responses were received during the period of data collection. In addition, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the management of MNP and with surrounding land owners in the data-collection period. The results of the empirical quantitative data were processed at the Statistical Consultation Services at the Potchefstroom Campus of North-West University. The data was analysed using version 21 of SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The statistical methods utilised included descriptive statistics through frequencies and means, exploratory factor analysis and t-tests. The interviews conducted were transcribed using F4 software and analysed by means of the ATLAS.ti software package. Data analysis included the use of data coding in order to identify underlying themes in the data. The results of the descriptive data indicated that the following five management constructs were seen as most important from a visitor perspective: the cleanliness of ablution facilities, the cleanliness of accommodation facilities, the reintroduction of indigenous game species, the control of domestic animals in the park, and the professionalism of reception staff. In terms of the management effectiveness, the following five constructs were rated the highest: the cleanliness of ablution facilities, the performance of housekeeping staff, hours of operation of park reception, the value for money of accommodation at MNP, and the professional operation of tours to Mapungubwe Hill. The exploratory factor analysis identified 11 factors related to management and sustainable tourism, namely (1) information and accessibility, (2) accommodation and ablution facilities, (3) food and beverages, (4) leisure facilities, (5) professionalism of tours, (6) conservation, (7) concessions, (8) human resources, (9) regulations and marketing, (10) socio-economic impacts and (11) environmental impacts. These factors were compared through a t-test and gaps in management effectiveness were identified in all factors with the exception of concessions. Qualitative data analysis of the interviews with local land owners revealed a number of themes that highlighted the concerns experienced by these stakeholders. These themes were local land owner issues, mining issues, management issues, transfrontier conservation area issues and world heritage issues. The main themes arising from interviews with management included local land owner issues, mining issues, MNP management issues, transfrontier conservation area issues, tourism issues and world heritage issues. This research made the following contributions to the field of sustainable tourism management in protected areas: * This study contributed a critical assessment of literature based on park and protected area management frameworks. These frameworks were presented in chronological order and provide a theoretical basis for the future development of management frameworks for parks and protected areas. * This study proved that tourism management frameworks should be park specific and not generic in nature as all national parks have their own unique set of environmental conditions. * This study developed the first integrated framework for the management of tourism services at MNP. * This study has proved that SANParks has to manage all three spheres of management, namely conservation, ecotourism and constituency building, effectively in order to bring about the effective management of national parks in South Africa. In the case of MNP, management does not engage successfully with visitors (tourists) and the local community (local land owners), which has led to a mutual aversion and to misunderstandings between the parties. This highlights the necessity of involving all stakeholders in park management in order to stimulate greater cooperation and mutual understanding between all parties. * This study is the first to analyse the management effectiveness of tourism service provision at MNP and in the northern region of SANParks. This fulfils a gap, which may lead to future linear studies at other national parks in the region. * The results of this research will provide much needed input towards the overall strategic management of tourism services at MNP and SANParks by identifying ten gaps in management effectiveness. * This study is the first study to analyse the perceptions of the management of tourism in a World Heritage Site inside a national park in South Africa. * The findings of this study have been presented at various forums, including The Greater Mapungubwe Network (Musina, 26 July 2013) and the Southern Africa Institute for Management Scientists Conference (Potchefstroom, 15-17 September 2013). * Finally, this study contributed to the database of research concerning national parks, heritage management and protected area management in terms of tourism management. / PhD (Tourism Management)|cNorth-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

MNP is one of the smallest and youngest national parks in the portfolio of South African National Parks (SANParks). The park is also a World Heritage Site because it contains the remnants of the ancient Kingdom of Mapungubwe, which was one of the first sophisticated southern African societies. The park currently faces challenges associated with mining in the area, the development of the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area, the presence of private and agricultural lands that split the park into two parts as well as management issues. The management of national parks in South Africa is guided by a number of principles, one of which is strategic adaptive management, which is used by South African National Parks (SANParks) as the foundation of all the organisation’s management plans. In addition, guidelines and legislation set by various international organisations and national government departments provide structures according to which protected areas, World Heritage Sites and national parks should function. Sustainable tourism is the desired state for tourism. This means that tourism services should be managed towards achieving sustainable tourism. Sustainable tourism is considered a form of tourism that is strategic and that promotes the long-term integrity of natural and cultural resources, so that these resources are maintained as durable, permanent landscapes for future generations. Sustainable tourism strives to achieve economic viability without compromising the integrity of socio-cultural and natural environments. Therefore, sustainable tourism rests on three main pillars, namely socio-cultural integrity, economic integrity and environmental integrity. The primary objective of this study was to develop a tourism management framework for the Mapungubwe National Park (MNP). It is a young national park that faces a unique set of management challenges. Currently the tourism management plan of the park is contained within the overall management plan of the park and it does not address the major management challenges of the park. For this reason it is imperative to develop a management framework in this regard that takes into account the management challenges that face the park in order to ensure that sustainable tourism is achieved. The research approach used in this study included both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. An explorative research approach was followed through a self-administered online questionnaire with the aim of determining the perceptions of visitors about the importance of various management and sustainable tourism tasks and how effectively they perceived those tasks to be executed at MNP. Fifty-four constructs pertaining to aspects of park management and sustainable tourism were measured on a five-point Likert scale. These constructs were determined through a literature review. The sources consulted included the following: Saayman (2009), Swarbrooke (2002), George (2007), Mancini (2013), SANParks (2010), Keyser, (2002:351), Coetzee (2004:184), Himbira, Saarinen, Atlhopheng and Manwa (2010:278), Borges, Carbone, Bushell, and Jäger (2011:8), Sebele (2010:146), Vanhove, (2011:223), Logar (2010:130) and Pedersen (2002:34). The questionnaire was distributed electronically to a database of visitors who had stayed at MNP over a period of 12 months. The researcher also distributed questionnaires manually at the park. Data collection took place during March and April 2013. A total of 486 responses were received during the period of data collection. In addition, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the management of MNP and with surrounding land owners in the data-collection period. The results of the empirical quantitative data were processed at the Statistical Consultation Services at the Potchefstroom Campus of North-West University. The data was analysed using version 21 of SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The statistical methods utilised included descriptive statistics through frequencies and means, exploratory factor analysis and t-tests. The interviews conducted were transcribed using F4 software and analysed by means of the ATLAS.ti software package. Data analysis included the use of data coding in order to identify underlying themes in the data. The results of the descriptive data indicated that the following five management constructs were seen as most important from a visitor perspective: the cleanliness of ablution facilities, the cleanliness of accommodation facilities, the reintroduction of indigenous game species, the control of domestic animals in the park, and the professionalism of reception staff. In terms of the management effectiveness, the following five constructs were rated the highest: the cleanliness of ablution facilities, the performance of housekeeping staff, hours of operation of park reception, the value for money of accommodation at MNP, and the professional operation of tours to Mapungubwe Hill. The exploratory factor analysis identified 11 factors related to management and sustainable tourism, namely (1) information and accessibility, (2) accommodation and ablution facilities, (3) food and beverages, (4) leisure facilities, (5) professionalism of tours, (6) conservation, (7) concessions, (8) human resources, (9) regulations and marketing, (10) socio-economic impacts and (11) environmental impacts. These factors were compared through a t-test and gaps in management effectiveness were identified in all factors with the exception of concessions. Qualitative data analysis of the interviews with local land owners revealed a number of themes that highlighted the concerns experienced by these stakeholders. These themes were local land owner issues, mining issues, management issues, transfrontier conservation area issues and world heritage issues. The main themes arising from interviews with management included local land owner issues, mining issues, MNP management issues, transfrontier conservation area issues, tourism issues and world heritage issues. This research made the following contributions to the field of sustainable tourism management in protected areas: * This study contributed a critical assessment of literature based on park and protected area management frameworks. These frameworks were presented in chronological order and provide a theoretical basis for the future development of management frameworks for parks and protected areas. * This study proved that tourism management frameworks should be park specific and not generic in nature as all national parks have their own unique set of environmental conditions. * This study developed the first integrated framework for the management of tourism services at MNP. * This study has proved that SANParks has to manage all three spheres of management, namely conservation, ecotourism and constituency building, effectively in order to bring about the effective management of national parks in South Africa. In the case of MNP, management does not engage successfully with visitors (tourists) and the local community (local land owners), which has led to a mutual aversion and to misunderstandings between the parties. This highlights the necessity of involving all stakeholders in park management in order to stimulate greater cooperation and mutual understanding between all parties. * This study is the first to analyse the management effectiveness of tourism service provision at MNP and in the northern region of SANParks. This fulfils a gap, which may lead to future linear studies at other national parks in the region. * The results of this research will provide much needed input towards the overall strategic management of tourism services at MNP and SANParks by identifying ten gaps in management effectiveness. * This study is the first study to analyse the perceptions of the management of tourism in a World Heritage Site inside a national park in South Africa. * The findings of this study have been presented at various forums, including The Greater Mapungubwe Network (Musina, 26 July 2013) and the Southern Africa Institute for Management Scientists Conference (Potchefstroom, 15-17 September 2013). * Finally, this study contributed to the database of research concerning national parks, heritage management and protected area management in terms of tourism management. / PhD (Tourism Management)|cNorth-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

The study probes intergovernmental relations in the management of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park (GLTP). The GLTP is established by trilateral agreement among South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Transfrontier parks are new phenomena in South Africa and Southern Africa. The novelty of the phenomena justifies the conduct of research with a view to uncover and add new knowledge to the study of Public Administration. The focus of the thesis is on the different types of governmental relations necessary for the successful management of the GLTP. More emphasis in the thesis is on the contribution made by South Africa to the improvement of relations, successful management and development of the GLTP. The relations analysed in the thesis are international and national in nature. Furthermore, the essence of the sovereignty of the state, globalization, the African Renaissance, the contribution made by international institutions, provincial, and local government receive attention in the thesis. Tourism management, stakeholders, the state of tourism in the three countries and challenges facing South Africa and the GLTP in the promotion of tourism are assessed as tourism has become a significant growth area in the economies of most developing countries. / Thesis (DAdmin (Public Administration))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / DAdmin / unrestricted

The transfrontier conservation areas (TFCAs) concept appears well-timed and appropriate to Southern Africa but the role of local communities in these enterprises is not defined. A framework that fully integrates agriculture, biodiversity conservation and livelihoods, known as ecoagriculture, provides opportunities for achieving TFCA goals through bottom-up means. The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of planning and managing ecoagriculture in the Lubombo TFCA spanning across the borders of South Africa, Mozambique and Swaziland. The study area is a biodiversity hotspot and is inhabited by poor people who need to meet their livelihood needs through utilising local natural resources. There is thus a need for initiatives that balance biodiversity protection and utilisation. Methodological triangulation including transect surveys, participant observation, key informant interviews, household questionnaire surveys and participatory approaches is employed. The study involves stakeholder identification and consultation, participatory landscape performance assessment, evaluation of the community’s future visioning and the analysis of policy and governance mechanisms impacting on ecoagriculture implementation. ii The study revealed a unique combination of stakeholders with varying degrees of importance and influence in the TFCA communities under focus, a situation which cannot be expected in an ordinary communal farming area. Potential conflicts of interest were evident among certain stakeholder groups but the stakeholder roles and interests were largely complementary. Key informant interviews pointed towards a high feasibility of planned ecoagriculture implementation in the area. The questionnaire survey showed an overwhelming willingness to plan the integration of biodiversity and farming. According to the participatory evaluation of the landscape’s performance the area’s overall performance score was 2.97 out of a possible score of 5, which implied a performance in the middle of the range. There were significant differences in the scores for the landscape dimensions (p-value < 0.01) but there were no significant differences in scores across the landscape (p-value = 0.37). The area is a mosaic of unplanned ecoagriculture with a good potential for transformation into systematically managed agriculture-biodiversity integrated approaches. Biodiversity-agriculture integration elements are evident in the Mathenjwa community vision, reflecting the community’s consciousness of its future in the TFCA. None of the Lubombo TFCA countries has an explicit ecoagriculture policy but ecoagriculture aspects are implied in existing legislation. Weak transboundary collaboration makes the Lubombo TFCA to exist as a treaty on paper rather than on the ground. Conflicts between customary norms and public legislation create policy enforcement challenges and pose a barrier to ecoagriculture implementation. Existing conditions could be improved to allow stakeholder-driven integrated landscape management. Innovative efforts (like policy harmonisation, capacity building and campaigns to raise awareness of the benefits of agriculturebiodiversity integration) are recommended for ecoagriculture to become a systematic landscape management practice in the area. The contributions of this study include: (i) a suggested framework for local community involvement in TFCAs which improves their resilience to climate change impacts, (ii) a suggested ecoagriculture feasibility index (EFI) for a specific landscape, (iii) a proposed landscape evaluation tool that practitioners and researchers can adopt, (iv) a methodological contribution to landscape studies involving the use of participatory processes and (v) contribution to the literature on the subject and practice of ecoagriculture. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2013 / Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology / Unrestricted

Springbok Antidorcas marsupialis ecology was examined on the South African side of the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the Kalahari, with the use of public questionnaires and field forms. Statistically significant differences were found between data that were collected by public respondents and the researcher when using the same questionnaire. Questionnaires are useful for gathering large amounts of data, but should be carefully structured to ensure the quality of the data. Feeding was the most common activity of springbok and the frequency thereof varied during the day and between seasons. Environmental conditions and seasonal changes affected the feeding behaviour of springbok in the southwestern Kalahari. Springbok fed in direct sunlight in the mornings and moved into the shade during the afternoon. More time was spent feeding in the shade during the warmer months than during the colder months, especially under northerly to northeasterly wind directions. Herd sizes were found to increase during the cold-dry season and decreased during the hot-wet season. Springbok and blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus taurinus displayed niche separation by competition avoidance. Springbok utilized natural licks. Night-time observations of springbok were made during different seasons and habitats on the South African side of the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in 2003. Nocturnal feeding behaviour was described in the context of other similar studies. Feeding times were highlighted, yet the role and importance of nocturnal feeding remains unclear. The nutritional content of some southwestern Kalahari food plant species were determined. The nutrients in the sampled plants showed a wider fluctuation range than plants in other regions. Phosphorus levels in the Kalahari were found to be low in general and calcium levels were higher than in other regions. Browse species contained higher crude protein levels than grass species. The nutritional value of the plants was lowest during the cold-dry season and highest during the hot-dry one. The nutritional status of springbok in the southwestern Kalahari was assessed by using faecal profiling. The faecal nutritional status for springbok populations in different habitats and seasons was examined. Faecal nutrient levels confirmed springbok as mixed feeders with a diet composition that was between that of true browsers and grazers. Faecal concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen were similar to that of springbok in other areas, but phosphorus intake was shown to be low, particularly during the cold-dry season. Phosphorus appears to be a limiting nutrient and may cause nutritional stress in springbok in the southwestern Kalahari during dry periods. / Dissertation (MSc (Botany))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Plant Science / unrestricted

Contemporary conservation and development understanding in both policy and academic circles espouses that natural resources have a significant contribution to the livelihoods of local people and that knowledge of this can better foster conservation policies that are consistent with livelihood and ecological needs. This thesis is based on research conducted in the southern Kalahari region, South Africa among the San and Mier communities bordering Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park. It looks at the importance of natural resources to the San and Mier community groups and ascertains the extent of resource use and its value within broader livelihood portfolios. It also focuses on the cultural values of natural resources and interactions among institutions and actors and how these shape natural resource governance and livelihood outcomes. Overall, natural resources represent an important livelihood source contributing up to 32 % and 9 % of the total income of the San and Mier respectively or up to 46 % and 23 % if livestock incomes are included. However, the dependence on, diversification patterns and distribution of natural resource income vary substantially between and within the two communities. With regards to the cultural values attached to natural resources by the San and Mier, the findings show that these arise from an incredibly diverse and sometimes conflicting array of values that punctuate the two communities’ way of life and they are inextricably linked to resource use. Lastly, governance of natural resources in the co-managed Park and communitymanaged resettlement farms is characterised by complex institutional arrangements, compounded by the existence of multiple actors that have multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives – as shaped by different meanings and interpretations of natural resources. Heightened inter- and intra-community conflicts are common, notably resource use conflicts between the San and Mier and between the San ‘modernist’ and ‘traditionalist’ groups. This demonstrates that the communities’ livelihood dynamics in general and the dependence on natural resources in particular, are closely linked with ecological, economic and social factors including history, culture and present livelihood needs. By exploring the social-environment interactions, the study highlights the complexities and diversity of resource use for livelihoods that should be taken into consideration for both conservation and development policy interventions and research. The main argument of the study is that the contribution of natural resources to local livelihood portfolios in co- and community-managed areas, can be better understood through a consideration of cultural dynamics and institutional arrangements since these condition natural resource access, value and use.

Thesis (MScFor)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Free-ranging lions (Panthera leo) in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) have been subject to persecution by farmers following livestock depredation in adjacent grazing areas. In recent years at least one adult female was killed annually from a sub-population of five boundary prides that have home ranges adjoining these livestock grazing areas. While no long-term records of human-caused mortality are available, the impact of current rates of human-caused mortality is uncertain. Female-based, age-structured models were thus used to estimate the long-term viability of the KTP lion sub-population subjected to human-caused mortality under deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Population parameters incorporated in the models included age-class specific natural mortality, female fecundity and birth sex ratio. In so doing sustainable threshold rates of persecution were established, so that effective conservation measures can be taken, if required, to ensure the continued survival of boundary prides in the park. Sensitivity analyses of natural survival rates indicated that adult female survivorship is the most important population parameter with respect to maintaining population viability, compared to younger female age-classes, fecundity or birth sex ratio. Hence adults were also the most sensitive age-class with respect to human-caused mortality, as adult survival repeatedly acts upon individuals with the highest reproductive value. In the deterministic model, with the most optimistic survival parameter values, fecundity and birth sex ratio (female-biased) estimates, the sub-population is only able to sustain an annual persecution of three adult females, before the sub-population exhibits a sustained decline. In the worst-case scenario, where fecundity and sex ratio estimates are at their lower extremes, the maximum sustainable age-class specific persecution rate is zero, for all age-classes. Whilst these hypothetical scenarios are unrealistic, they do highlight the extreme thresholds of potentially sustainable persecution rates. Under the most optimistic scenario using the stochastic model, the highest achievable survival probability of the sub-population, when subjected to a persecution rate of one adult annually, was 78%. Although increased fecundity and birth sex ratio biased towards females may increase the survival probability, these parameters are generally at their mean values in the long-term, and may thus not necessarily prevent a sustained population decline. The models therefore suggest that the current persecution rate of one adult annually (or 4% of the adult sub-population), appears unsustainable in the longterm. To ensure the survival of existing boundary prides and to maintain a viable subpopulation, adult lionesses should, as far as possible, be afforded protection from persecution. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vrylewende leeus (Panthera leo) in die Kgalagadi Oorgrenspark (KTP) is onderworpe aan vervolging deur boere as gevolg van predasie op vee in aangrensende weidingsgebiede. In onlangse jare is ten minste een volwasse wyfie uit ‘n subpopulasie van vyf troppe met loopareas wat aan die weidingsgebiede grens, jaarliks uitgewis. Geen langtermyn rekords van vrektes as gevolg van menslike oorsake is beskikbaar nie, en die impak van vrektes wat deur mense veroorsaak word, is dus onseker. Wyfie-gebaseerde, ouderdomgestruktureerde modelle is daarom gebruik om te voorspel wat die langtermyn lewensvatbaarheid is van die KTP leeu subpopulasie wat onderworpe is aan vrektes deur menslike invloede onder deterministiese en stogastiese omgewingsfaktore. Bevolkingsfaktore wat deur die modelle in ag geneem is, sluit ouderdomsgroep-spesifieke natuurlike vrektes, aanwas van wyfies en geboorte geslagsverhouding in. Sodoende is volhoubare uitwissingstempos bepaal sodat, indien nodig, effektiewe bewaringsmeganismes toegepas kan word om die voortbestaan van troppe in die grensgebiede van die park te verseker. Sensitiwiteitsanalises van natuurlike oorlewingstempos het aangetoon dat volwasse wyfies se oorlewing die belangrikste bevolkingsfaktor is om die bevolking se lewensvatbaarheid te volhou vergeleke met jonger wyfie ouderdomsgroepe, aanwas of geslagsverhouding by geboorte. Daarom was volwassenes ook die sensitiefste vir vrektes as gevolg van menslike invloede, omdat die oorlewing van volwassenes herhaaldelik inwerk op individue met die hoogste reproduktiewe waarde. In die deterministiese model met die mees optimistiese oorlewing, aanwas en geboorte verhouding (wyfie-gebasseerde) beramings, is die subpopulasie slegs in staat om ‘n jaarlikse uitwissing van drie volwasse wyfies te onderhou, voordat die sub-populasie ‘n volgehoue afname toon. In die uiterste geval waar aanwas en geslags verhouding skattings op die laagste is, is die maksimum volhoubare ouderdomsklasspesifieke beramings nul vir alle ouderdomsklasse. Terwyl hierdie hipotetiese senario’s onrealisties is, onderstreep dit die uiterste vlakke van potensiële volhoubare uitwissingstempos. Onder die mees optimistiese senario – ‘n uitwissingstempo van een volwassene jaarliks – met die gebruik van die stogastiese model, was die hoogste haalbare oorlewingswaarskynlikheid van die sub-populasie 78%. Alhoewel ‘n toename in aanwas en geboorte geslagsverhouding (met oorhelling na wyfies), ‘n toename in oorlewingswaarskynlikheid tot gevolg kan hê, is hierdie faktore oor die algemeen gemiddeld oor die langtermyn en sal dit nie noodwendig ‘n volgehoue afname in die populasie verhoed nie. Die modelle dui daarop dat die huidige uitwissingstempo van een volwassene (of 4% van die volwasse sub-populasie) op ‘n jaarlikse grondslag onvolhoubaar is oor die langtermyn. Om die oorlewing van bestaande troppe in die grensgebiede, asook ‘n lewensvatbare subpopulasie, te verseker, moet volwasse leeuwyfies so ver as moontlik teen vervolging beskerm word.