No description available.

This thesis presents a novel approach to evaluating intercity travel demand given the introduction of a new travel mode. A joint RP-SP survey is designed to collect both experienced and hypothetical travel decisions. The stated preference aspect of the survey evaluates the level-of-service attributes that influence intercity mode choice. Emphasis is placed on the effects of local accessibility by adapting a geographical disaggregation at the Forward Sortation Area (FSA). Survey distribution collected data primarily through the use of online social networks such as Facebook and Reddit in addition to an online marketing research survey panel. Intercity mode choice was modeled with Random Utility Maximizing (RUM) discrete choice models and is represented by Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Nested Logit (NL) choice structures. Key finding is that access to transit stations significantly influences intercity mode choices.

This thesis presents a novel approach to evaluating intercity travel demand given the introduction of a new travel mode. A joint RP-SP survey is designed to collect both experienced and hypothetical travel decisions. The stated preference aspect of the survey evaluates the level-of-service attributes that influence intercity mode choice. Emphasis is placed on the effects of local accessibility by adapting a geographical disaggregation at the Forward Sortation Area (FSA). Survey distribution collected data primarily through the use of online social networks such as Facebook and Reddit in addition to an online marketing research survey panel. Intercity mode choice was modeled with Random Utility Maximizing (RUM) discrete choice models and is represented by Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Nested Logit (NL) choice structures. Key finding is that access to transit stations significantly influences intercity mode choices.

The purpose of this research project was to evaluate the techniques outlined in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program Technical Report 255 Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design (NCHRP-255), published in 1982 by the Transportation Research Board. This evaluation was accomplished by using a regional travel demand forecast model calibrated and validated for the year 1990 and developing a highway forecast for the year 2000. The forecasted volumes along the Capital Beltway (I-495/I-95) portion located in the State of Maryland were compared to observed count data for that same year. A series of statistical measures were used to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of the techniques documented in NCHRP-255. The primary research objectives were: • To critically evaluate the ability of a regional travel demand forecast model to accurately forecast freeway corridor volumes by comparing link forecast volumes to the actual count data. • To evaluate and determine the significance of post-processing techniques as outlined in NCHRP-255. The most important lesson learned from this research is that although it was originally written in 1982, NCHRP-255 is still a very valuable resources for supplementing travel demand forecast model output. The "raw" model output is not reliable enough to be used directly for highway design, operational analysis, nor alternative or economic evaluations. The travel demand forecast model is a tool that is just part of the forecasting process. It is not a turn-key operation, and travel demand forecasts cannot be done without the application of engineering judgment. / Master of Science

Since through trips can be a significant portion of travel in a study area, estimating them is an important part of travel demand modeling. In the past, through trips have been estimated using external surveys. Recently, external surveys were suspended in Texas, so Texas transportation planners need a way to estimate through trips without using external surveys. Other research in the area has focused on study areas with a population of less than 200,000, but many Texas study areas have a population of more than 200,000. This research developed a set of two logit models to estimate through trips for a wide range of study area sizes, including larger study areas. The first model estimates the portion of all trips at an external station that are through trips. The second model distributes those through trips at one external station to the other external stations. The models produce separate results for commercial and noncommercial vehicles, and these results can be used to develop through trip tables. For predictor variables, the models use results from a very simple gravity model; the average daily traffic (ADT) at each external station as a proportion of the total ADT at all available external stations; the number of turns on the routes between external station pairs; and whether the route is valid, where a valid route is one that passes through the study area and does not pass through any other external stations. Evaluations of the performance of the models showed that the predictions fit the observations reasonably well; at least 68 percent of the absolute prediction errors for each model and for the models combined were less than 10 percent. These results indicate that the models can be useful for practical applications.

This report presents a top-down methodology to forecast annual international flight operations at sixty-six U.S. airports, whose combined operations accounted for 99.8% of the total international passenger flight operations in National Airspace System (NAS) in 2004. The forecast of international flight operations at each airport is derived from the combination of passenger flight operations at the airport to ten World Regions. The regions include: Europe, Asia, Africa, South America, Mexico, Canada, Caribbean and Central America, Middle East, Oceania and U.S. International. In the forecast, a "top-down" methodology is applied in three steps. In the fist step, individual linear regression models are developed to forecast the total annual international passenger enplanements from the U.S. to each of nine World Regions. The resulting regression models are statistically valid and have parameters that are credible in terms of signs and magnitude. In the second step, the forecasted passenger enplanements are distributed among international airports in the U.S. using individual airport market share factors. The airport market share analysis conducted in this step concludes that the airline business is the critical factor explaining the changes associated with airport market share. In the third and final step, the international passenger enplanements at each airport are converted to flight operations required for transporting the passengers. In this process, average load factor and average seats per aircraft are used. The model has been integrated into the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a comprehensive intercity transportation planning tool. Through a simple graphic user interface implemented in the TSAM model, the user can test different future scenarios by defining a series of scaling factors for GDP, load factor and average seats per aircraft. The default values for the latter two variables are predefined in the model using 2004 historical data derived from Department of Transportation T100 international segment data. / Master of Science

This thesis examines factors that influence the daily number of trip departures and arrivals at over 100 hubs comprising Hamilton, Ontario’s (Canada) bike share program – SoBi (Social Bicycles) Hamilton. SoBi operates all year, and during its first year of operation (April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2016), over 200,000 trips were generated on SoBi bikes. The study utilizes data from SoBi Hamilton, the 2011 Canadian Census, the 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey, Environment Canada, and Hamilton’s Open Source Data initiative. From these master files, daily trips, meteorological data, temporal variables, socio-demographic and built environment attributes were obtained to generate a comprehensive suite of explanatory variables to explain the daily trips at each hub. A multilevel regression approach was used to understand the associations between bike share usage at each hub and each suite of explanatory variables at two temporal scales: total daily trips at hubs and total daily trips across four time periods of the day. Findings demonstrate that weather and temporal attributes play a significant role in trip departures and arrivals. In addition, hub attributes vary in significance throughout different times of the day for trip departures and arrivals. Overall, the methodology and findings allow us to identify factors that increase SoBi usage, which can also benefit city planners and engineers who are implementing a bike share system with the goal of maximizing bike share activity in urban centers. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Today the regional railway system lacks the capacity at the central station in order to meet the demand for both the public and freight transportation. The West link is a railway infrastructure project that is expected to both increase train commuting and also increase the train capacity at the central station in Gothenburg. The purpose of this thesis work is to do an elastic demand analysis between car traffic and the West Link in modal shift to determine how many travelers will change mode. Also traffic simulations will be made to investigate the traffic conditions around the stations when the West link has been implemeted. The simulation results showed that nowadays there are congestions on the major highways and some of the smaller low capacity roads. In the future, congestions will become more significant if no countermeasures are implemented like the West link. In the elastic demand analysis the results were overall around 47% – 51% on a demand of between 350 000 – 400 000 trips. As a conclusion it cannot be said whether the West link will ease the pressure on car traffic or not. The reasons are that the population will increase about 100 000 inhabitants until 2030 and the West link is assumed by the region to have this amount of travelers each day. This would result in the same traffic pressure as today with congestions in certain parts. If the number of West link users will be around 200 000, as the results of this thesis shows, then the West link will ease the pressure on car traffic.

Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) have become increasingly interested in incorporating land use patterns and design ideas into transportation problems. Many design ideas under the umbrella of the New Urbanism; yet in practice they hardly get fully implemented in the standard transportation planning procedures. This research intends to contribute to the continuing debate on land use pattern-travel connection by adding further empirical evidence from the Austin, TX region. Also, it demonstrates ways to integrate land use patterns in transportation demand analysis. The study identifies 42 mixed use districts (MXD) in the Austin region and analyzes the following aspects of travel behavior in MXDs and non-MXDs: production trip rates, frequency of produced trips, network trip length, internal rate of capture, and person-miles of travel (PMT). The study contributes to transportation planning and policy making in Central Texas by providing local empirical evidence on urban form-travel connection. The study’s method and process can be of interest to a broad audience in academia and practice. / text

La thèse se propose d'intégrer deux approches économiques fondamentales à l'étude de l'économie régionale et de la politique économique des transports en particulier: i) un approche théorique, fondée sur des micromodèles analytiques et soutenue par des applications des méthodes de simulation numérique, et ensuite, ii) un approche empirique pour tester des hypothèses théorétiques. La perspective de microéconomie sur les problématiques et le fonctionnement des mécanismes des transports privés sont, au même temps, nécessaires et ardues à modéliser. Parmi les nombreuses problématiques étudiés dans le cadre de cet domaine de recherche il vaut la peine de mentionner: la taxation des routes, la concurrence parfaite et oligopolistique entre les opérateurs que anime le système des transports privées et de marchandises, la congestion des routes et le comportement des usagers face à l'incertitude relative aux temps de trajet où encore, le processus de décision en matière de transports au sein des ménages. L'approche micro-fondée liée aux problématiques ci-dessus a été intégrée au sein de cet étude avec une vision empirique, menée à l'analyse de l'ensemble des politiques de plani cation au niveau régional et urbain. Les deux applications empiriques présentées montrent deux nouvelles méthodologies d'étude concernant deux problématiques classiques: i) le choix modale, dans une optique de décision conjointe observée sur un échantillon des couples résidents en Ile-de-France et, ii) le choix de route en Moyen Orient, où les temps de trajet sont incertains et dépends d'un scenario politique incertain au niveau macroéconomique. L'intégration des deux approches est réalisée dans le cadre de cette thèse ayant comme exigence celle de mieux répondre aux questions concrètes et actuelles de la recherche européenne, ainsi que pour augmenter la palette des débouchées applicatives des modèles théoriques développées dans la littérature récente. / This thesis aims to integrate two fundamental approaches to the study of regional economics and the transport policy: i) a theoretical approach based on analytic models supported by numerical simulation and ii) an empirical approach to test theoretical assumptions. The microeconomic perspective represents a challenging and a complex task at the same time. Some of the open issues at the center of debate are: the taxation of roads, perfect and imperfect competition among the networks supporting private trips, congestion pricing and the attitude towards risky outcomes as uncertain travel times, the decision making process and resource sharing among different members of a household. The micro approach has been integrated with two empirical experiments in which we propose new approaches to study two traditional problems: i) modal choice, by testing the jointness of decision making on a sample of active couples from Ile-de-France, and ii) route choice in the Middle East - a context in which the travel time, as an input of the decision process, is characterized by uncertainty and depends on the political scenario at the macro level.