Phosphorous (P) has been found to be the limiting nutrient in freshwater systems, directly affecting rates of planktonic growth. The P circulation is very complex, and its pathways through lake systems are difficult to determine. Motala Ström is the biggest watercourse in the south-east of Sweden and an important source of P to the Baltic Sea. The aim of this study is to conduct a P mass balance analysis of the lakes Roxen and Glan over a period of time. The analysis will also include a quality control of the concentrations data. The P concentration data used in this investigation were collected from the Motala Ström River Association, consisting of seasonal or monthly concentration data of Tot-P during the period 1960-2010. Daily water flow data used in this study were modelled by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) using the S-HYPE model. P concentration deviations from monthly averages at each sampling station were calculated, followed by a seasonal Mann Kendall trend analysis. At five out of eight sampling stations, negative trends were detected, indicating decreasing concentrations. The exception was the outflow from lake Glan, Stångån and Finspångsån. Linear interpolation of P concentration data was performed to create daily data for the period 1980-2010. Following interpolation, daily transport values were calculated and summed up to annual values. Lake Roxen has acted as a source of P during the whole period 1980-2010, except for one year. Lake Glan has acted as a source during 22 of the 31 years. There is a tendency of Glan to become more of a source over the years, which is in line with the deviation observations, but variation between years makes it necessary to analyse also future data in order to establish any possible trend in P transports. Before construction of wastewater treatment plants, the lakes were certainly sinks of phosphorus. But at least for Roxen, the switch from sink to source was completed before 1980.

Problems related to sustainable development such as environmental issues, human rights, orlabor conditions, are nowadays deeply integrated in our society. It became primordial forcompanies to take into consideration these problems in their business development. For morethan a decade now, car companies started to publish official documents summarizing theircommitments in favor of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) actions. Through thesesustainability reports, car producers disclose information concerning their sustainable policyand bring details to stakeholders on performed sustainable actions. Because publication of sustainability reports is a relatively new phenomenon, a lot of studies still have to be made in this sector. In this way, no main studies were made regarding howCSR actions performed and disclosed by car companies evolved in the past decade. Didcompanies keep focusing on the same type of sustainable actions or did some changes occuron the way they conduct their CSR policies? No trends were available to try to understandhow car companies CSR actions evolved. This thesis is an attempt to fulfill this gap and bringa first set of useful findings on this topic. Based on three different car producers which are BMW Group, Ford Motor Company andMitsubishi Motors Corporation, our study analyses these companies 2002, 2006 and 2010sustainability reports and looks at how CSR actions are disclosed. The purpose is firstly todescribe how companies’ CSR commitment disclosure is evolving between 2002 and 2010and secondly to find explanation to the key trends. In order to achieve this, we used six mainCSR categories (Economic, Environment, Human Rights, Labor Practices and Decent Work,Product Responsibility and Society) and classified disclosed information in relation with thesecategories to create trends. For each of these six categories, sub-categories were used in orderto be more precise in the analysis process of the documents. Results showed an important interest of car producers for the environment category whichrepresents, on average, more than 40% of disclosed information in sustainability reports.Society category trend shows an important increase between 2006 and 2010 which led it tobecome the second most represented category in reports. Other categories trends present amore stable evolution with time. As it is explained more in detail in our analysis part, thisattraction toward environmental issues for car producers can be explained by the badreputation given to car producers in terms of emissions, energy consumption and moreglobally environmental protection. Cultural background and business mindset are alsoinfluencing companies’ choices. Responsive behaviors resulting from stakeholder’s pressureas well as adaptation to a weak regulatory framework are additional elements to explain the key disclosure trends.

A large portion of the freshwater in western Canada originates as snowpack from the northern Rocky Mountains. The temperature and precipitation in these areas controls the amount of snow accumulated and stored throughout the winter, and the amount and timing of melt that occurs during the spring freshet. Therefore, a better understanding of past and future changes to the extent of snowpack and timing of melt can modify the timing of peak river flow on a continental scale. Trends in temperature, precipitation, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test on a high resolution gridded climate dataset over western Canada for the period 1950-2010. In addition, projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt are examined through comparison of the current (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) time periods incorporating several regional climate models. The temporal and spatial analyses of these key hydroclimatic variables indicate that changes vary greatly over space and time. Results reveal that while both maximum and minimum temperature have increased in the past 60 years, minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature and is likely to continue doing so in the future. This trend is particularly evident during the colder months of the year, and at higher elevations, contributing to earlier spring melt. Between 1950 and 2010, precipitation has decreased throughout the colder months of the year and increased in the warmer months, particularly in the northern half of the study area. Future projections show increased precipitation, specifically in the north. Throughout the historical period snow accumulation has experienced decreases across the study area and through all months of the year, except for increases at high elevations. In the coldest months of the year snow accumulation is projected to increase in high elevation and northern areas while decreasing across the rest of study area in the future. Snowmelt results indicate slight increases in mid-winter melt events and an earlier onset of the spring freshet; this change is expected to continue into the future period. This study provides a summary of detected trends and potential future changes in key hydroclimatic variables across western Canada with regard to the effects these changes can have on the spring freshet and streamflow, and thus water resources, throughout the study area. / Graduate / 0368

A large portion of the freshwater in western Canada originates as snowpack from the northern Rocky Mountains. The temperature and precipitation in these areas controls the amount of snow accumulated and stored throughout the winter, and the amount and timing of melt that occurs during the spring freshet. Therefore, a better understanding of past and future changes to the extent of snowpack and timing of melt can modify the timing of peak river flow on a continental scale. Trends in temperature, precipitation, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test on a high resolution gridded climate dataset over western Canada for the period 1950-2010. In addition, projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt are examined through comparison of the current (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) time periods incorporating several regional climate models. The temporal and spatial analyses of these key hydroclimatic variables indicate that changes vary greatly over space and time. Results reveal that while both maximum and minimum temperature have increased in the past 60 years, minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature and is likely to continue doing so in the future. This trend is particularly evident during the colder months of the year, and at higher elevations, contributing to earlier spring melt. Between 1950 and 2010, precipitation has decreased throughout the colder months of the year and increased in the warmer months, particularly in the northern half of the study area. Future projections show increased precipitation, specifically in the north. Throughout the historical period snow accumulation has experienced decreases across the study area and through all months of the year, except for increases at high elevations. In the coldest months of the year snow accumulation is projected to increase in high elevation and northern areas while decreasing across the rest of study area in the future. Snowmelt results indicate slight increases in mid-winter melt events and an earlier onset of the spring freshet; this change is expected to continue into the future period. This study provides a summary of detected trends and potential future changes in key hydroclimatic variables across western Canada with regard to the effects these changes can have on the spring freshet and streamflow, and thus water resources, throughout the study area. / Graduate / 0368

The aim of this project is to ascertain whether the data in existing Police recording systems can be used by existing mature data mining techniques in an efficient manner to achieve results that are more accurate than those achieved by Police specialists when analysing crime. The Police Service has no formalised methodology of recording and analysing crime data and it is incumbent on each Force to train and develop appropriate personnel to provide operational analysis. Police data is inconsistent and, frequently, incomplete making the task of formal analysis far more difficult and current analytical practices are semi-manual and time consuming producing results of limited accuracy. These analytical processes would benefit from using data mining techniques within a structured approach as discussed within this thesis. The usage of supervised and unsupervised learning techniques within a structured methodology to mining Police data is evaluated. The research demonstrates that data mining techniques can be successfully used in operational policing. High volume crimes such as burglary that have been committed by one or more known offenders can be classified and the model used to attribute currently undetected crimes to one or more of those known offenders. Burglary crimes that previously had no overt relationship and the identity of the offender is unknown can be clustered with the ability to suggest one or more offenders who may be responsible for committing the crime. The same techniques used in analysing high volume crime can be used to link low volume major crimes such as serious sexual assaults. The recognised benefits include an improvement in the accuracy of results over current semi-manual processes and a reduction in the time taken to achieve those results.

For decades, reliability engineering techniques have been successfully applied in many industries to improve the performance of equipment maintenance management. Numerous inspection and optimization models are developed and widely used to achieve maintenance excellence, i.e. the balance of performance, risk, resources and cost to reach to an optimal solution. However, the application of all these techniques and models to medical devices is new. Hospitals, due to possessing a large number of difference devices, can benefit significantly if the optimization techniques are used properly in the equipment management processes. Most research in the area of reliability engineering for medical equipment mainly considers the devices in their design or manufacturing stage and suggests some techniques to improve the reliability. To this point, best maintenance strategies for medical equipment in their operating context have not been considered. We aim to address this gap and propose methods to improve current maintenance strategies in the healthcare industry. More specifically, we first identify or propose the criteria which are important to assess the criticality of medical devices, and propose a model for the prioritization of medical equipment for maintenance decisions. The model is a novel application of multi-criteria decision making methodology to prioritize medical devices in a hospital according to their criticality. The devices with high level of criticality should be included in the hospital’s maintenance management program. Then, we propose a method to statistically analyze maintenance data for complex medical devices with censoring and missing information. We present a classification of failure types and establish policies for analyzing data at different levels of the device. Moreover, a new method for trend analysis of censored failure data is proposed. A novel feature of this work is that it considers dependent failure histories which are censored by inspection intervals. Trend analysis of this type of data has not been discussed in the literature. Finally, we introduce some assumptions based on the results of the analysis, and develop several new models to find the optimal inspection interval for a system subject to hard and soft failures. Hard failures are instantaneously revealed and fixed. Soft failures are only rectified at inspections. They do not halt the system, although they reduce its performance or productivity. The models are constructed for two main cases with the assumption of periodic inspections, and periodic and opportunistic inspections, respectively. All numerical examples and case studies presented in the dissertation are adapted from the maintenance data received from a Canadian hospital.

For decades, reliability engineering techniques have been successfully applied in many industries to improve the performance of equipment maintenance management. Numerous inspection and optimization models are developed and widely used to achieve maintenance excellence, i.e. the balance of performance, risk, resources and cost to reach to an optimal solution. However, the application of all these techniques and models to medical devices is new. Hospitals, due to possessing a large number of difference devices, can benefit significantly if the optimization techniques are used properly in the equipment management processes. Most research in the area of reliability engineering for medical equipment mainly considers the devices in their design or manufacturing stage and suggests some techniques to improve the reliability. To this point, best maintenance strategies for medical equipment in their operating context have not been considered. We aim to address this gap and propose methods to improve current maintenance strategies in the healthcare industry. More specifically, we first identify or propose the criteria which are important to assess the criticality of medical devices, and propose a model for the prioritization of medical equipment for maintenance decisions. The model is a novel application of multi-criteria decision making methodology to prioritize medical devices in a hospital according to their criticality. The devices with high level of criticality should be included in the hospital’s maintenance management program. Then, we propose a method to statistically analyze maintenance data for complex medical devices with censoring and missing information. We present a classification of failure types and establish policies for analyzing data at different levels of the device. Moreover, a new method for trend analysis of censored failure data is proposed. A novel feature of this work is that it considers dependent failure histories which are censored by inspection intervals. Trend analysis of this type of data has not been discussed in the literature. Finally, we introduce some assumptions based on the results of the analysis, and develop several new models to find the optimal inspection interval for a system subject to hard and soft failures. Hard failures are instantaneously revealed and fixed. Soft failures are only rectified at inspections. They do not halt the system, although they reduce its performance or productivity. The models are constructed for two main cases with the assumption of periodic inspections, and periodic and opportunistic inspections, respectively. All numerical examples and case studies presented in the dissertation are adapted from the maintenance data received from a Canadian hospital.

Neste estudo foram analisadas possíveis tendências de aumento da precipitação em nove estações pluviométricas na sub-bacia 87, incluindo Porto Alegre, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, para 50 anos de dados. Eventos extremos são responsáveis por muitos problemas, principalmente em áreas urbanas, e a frequência e a magnitude destes eventos podem aumentar com as alterações climáticas. No intuito de avaliar o impacto de alterações climáticas, em Porto Alegre, utilizou-se o modelo Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator (LARS-WG). O LARS-WG é um gerador estocástico capaz de simular cenários climáticos em escala local. Para cada série histórica das estações analisadas, na sub-bacia 87, foi aplicado o teste estatístico de Mann Kendall para identificar possíveis tendências nos dados anuais e trimestrais. Na estação de Porto Alegre também foi realizada pesquisa para identificar o aumento na frequência de ocorrência de alturas de precipitação em diferentes faixas e análise de tendência noshttp://www.bibliotecadigital.ufrgs.br/da.php?nrb=001053508&loc=2017&l=5219eb420c00bf62 dados sub-diários. A geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação para diferentes cenários teve como base os dados pluviométricos da série de Porto Alegre, que consistiu na utilização do período de 1974 a 2014 na geração da linha de base para calibração do LARS-WG. Após a geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação para um clima atual, foi selecionado o máximo diário anual e este foi desagregado em dados subdiários. Na sequência avaliou-se o impacto das alterações em três cenários do IPCC, A1B, A2 e B1. Em cada um dos arquivos de precipitação diária, geradas por projeção no LARS-WG, foi realizada a desagregação em precipitações sub-diárias Os resultados da aplicação do teste de Mann Kendall indicam tendência no aumento do total anual e no número de dias chuvosos (NDC). O trimestre que mais contribuiu para este aumento corresponde à primavera. Entretanto nas estações de Porto Alegre e Sapucaia do Sul, na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre, São Lourenço no Litoral Sul e Renânia e Serra do Pinto numa região de relevo acidentado próximo ao Litoral Norte também se identificou tendência de aumento no verão e no outono. Em Porto Alegre não foi verificada tendência na precipitação diária máxima anual, permitindo a utilização do LARS-WG que assume que as séries de dados diários observados são estacionárias e gera séries sintéticas com características estatísticas semelhantes à série de dados observados. Uma análise comparativa dos resultados entre as IDFs projetadas com o LARS-WG e a IDF definida por Weschenfelder et al. (2015) indica aumento das precipitações intensas. No primeiro período de projeção no cenário A1B, os desvios ficaram na faixa de 8 a 16% para quatro dos modelos, no cenário A2 os desvios ficaram na faixa de 9 a 19% e no cenário B1 de 7 a 19% em cinco modelos. Para o segundo período de projeção apresentou uma grande variabilidade com desvios entre -3 e 40%. O caminho para reduzir as incertezas é o monitoramento continuado das variáveis meteorológicas, pois a modelagem do clima só pode ser aprimorada com a incorporação de dados reais aos modelos. / This study analyzes possible trends of precipitation increase in nine rainfall stations in subbasin 87, including Porto Alegre, in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, for 50 years of data. Extreme events are responsible for many problems, especially in urban areas, and the frequency and magnitude of these events may increase with climate change. In order to evaluate the impact of climate change in Porto Alegre, the Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was used. The LARS-WG is a stochastic generator capable of simulating local scale climate scenarios. The Mann Kendall's statistical test was applied for each historical series of the analyzed stations in sub-basin 87 in order to identify possible trends in annual and trimestral data. At the Porto Alegre station, research was also conducted to identify the increase in the frequency of occurrence of precipitation heights in different bands and trend analysis in the sub-diary data. The generation of synthetic precipitation series for different scenarios was based on the pluviometric data of the Porto Alegre series, which consisted of the use of the period from 1974 to 2014 in the generation of the baseline for LARS-WG calibration After the generation of synthetic series of precipitation for a current climate, the maximum annual daily was selected and this was disaggregated in sub-diary data. The impact of the changes was then evaluated in three scenarios of the IPCC, A1B, A2 and B1. In each of the daily precipitation files generated by LARS-WG projection, disaggregation in sub-daily precipitation was conducted. The results of the Mann Kendall test indicate a trend in the annual total increase and in the number of rainy days (NDC). The trimester that contributed most to this increase is spring. However, in the Porto Alegre and Sapucaia do Sul stations, in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, São Lourenço in the South Coast and Renânia and Serra do Pinto, in an area of rugged relief near the North Coast, there was also a tendency to increase in summer and fall. In Porto Alegre, no trend was observed in the annual maximum daily precipitation, allowing the use of LARSWG, which assumes that the observed daily data series are stationary and generates synthetic series with similar statistical characteristics to the data series observed. A comparative analysis of the results between the IDFs projected with the LARS-WG and the IDF defined by Weschenfelder et al. (2015) indicates an increase in intense precipitation.

Neste estudo foram analisadas possíveis tendências de aumento da precipitação em nove estações pluviométricas na sub-bacia 87, incluindo Porto Alegre, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, para 50 anos de dados. Eventos extremos são responsáveis por muitos problemas, principalmente em áreas urbanas, e a frequência e a magnitude destes eventos podem aumentar com as alterações climáticas. No intuito de avaliar o impacto de alterações climáticas, em Porto Alegre, utilizou-se o modelo Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator (LARS-WG). O LARS-WG é um gerador estocástico capaz de simular cenários climáticos em escala local. Para cada série histórica das estações analisadas, na sub-bacia 87, foi aplicado o teste estatístico de Mann Kendall para identificar possíveis tendências nos dados anuais e trimestrais. Na estação de Porto Alegre também foi realizada pesquisa para identificar o aumento na frequência de ocorrência de alturas de precipitação em diferentes faixas e análise de tendência noshttp://www.bibliotecadigital.ufrgs.br/da.php?nrb=001053508&loc=2017&l=5219eb420c00bf62 dados sub-diários. A geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação para diferentes cenários teve como base os dados pluviométricos da série de Porto Alegre, que consistiu na utilização do período de 1974 a 2014 na geração da linha de base para calibração do LARS-WG. Após a geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação para um clima atual, foi selecionado o máximo diário anual e este foi desagregado em dados subdiários. Na sequência avaliou-se o impacto das alterações em três cenários do IPCC, A1B, A2 e B1. Em cada um dos arquivos de precipitação diária, geradas por projeção no LARS-WG, foi realizada a desagregação em precipitações sub-diárias Os resultados da aplicação do teste de Mann Kendall indicam tendência no aumento do total anual e no número de dias chuvosos (NDC). O trimestre que mais contribuiu para este aumento corresponde à primavera. Entretanto nas estações de Porto Alegre e Sapucaia do Sul, na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre, São Lourenço no Litoral Sul e Renânia e Serra do Pinto numa região de relevo acidentado próximo ao Litoral Norte também se identificou tendência de aumento no verão e no outono. Em Porto Alegre não foi verificada tendência na precipitação diária máxima anual, permitindo a utilização do LARS-WG que assume que as séries de dados diários observados são estacionárias e gera séries sintéticas com características estatísticas semelhantes à série de dados observados. Uma análise comparativa dos resultados entre as IDFs projetadas com o LARS-WG e a IDF definida por Weschenfelder et al. (2015) indica aumento das precipitações intensas. No primeiro período de projeção no cenário A1B, os desvios ficaram na faixa de 8 a 16% para quatro dos modelos, no cenário A2 os desvios ficaram na faixa de 9 a 19% e no cenário B1 de 7 a 19% em cinco modelos. Para o segundo período de projeção apresentou uma grande variabilidade com desvios entre -3 e 40%. O caminho para reduzir as incertezas é o monitoramento continuado das variáveis meteorológicas, pois a modelagem do clima só pode ser aprimorada com a incorporação de dados reais aos modelos. / This study analyzes possible trends of precipitation increase in nine rainfall stations in subbasin 87, including Porto Alegre, in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, for 50 years of data. Extreme events are responsible for many problems, especially in urban areas, and the frequency and magnitude of these events may increase with climate change. In order to evaluate the impact of climate change in Porto Alegre, the Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was used. The LARS-WG is a stochastic generator capable of simulating local scale climate scenarios. The Mann Kendall's statistical test was applied for each historical series of the analyzed stations in sub-basin 87 in order to identify possible trends in annual and trimestral data. At the Porto Alegre station, research was also conducted to identify the increase in the frequency of occurrence of precipitation heights in different bands and trend analysis in the sub-diary data. The generation of synthetic precipitation series for different scenarios was based on the pluviometric data of the Porto Alegre series, which consisted of the use of the period from 1974 to 2014 in the generation of the baseline for LARS-WG calibration After the generation of synthetic series of precipitation for a current climate, the maximum annual daily was selected and this was disaggregated in sub-diary data. The impact of the changes was then evaluated in three scenarios of the IPCC, A1B, A2 and B1. In each of the daily precipitation files generated by LARS-WG projection, disaggregation in sub-daily precipitation was conducted. The results of the Mann Kendall test indicate a trend in the annual total increase and in the number of rainy days (NDC). The trimester that contributed most to this increase is spring. However, in the Porto Alegre and Sapucaia do Sul stations, in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, São Lourenço in the South Coast and Renânia and Serra do Pinto, in an area of rugged relief near the North Coast, there was also a tendency to increase in summer and fall. In Porto Alegre, no trend was observed in the annual maximum daily precipitation, allowing the use of LARSWG, which assumes that the observed daily data series are stationary and generates synthetic series with similar statistical characteristics to the data series observed. A comparative analysis of the results between the IDFs projected with the LARS-WG and the IDF defined by Weschenfelder et al. (2015) indicates an increase in intense precipitation.

Magister Public Health - MPH / Background: The factors that underlie teenage pregnancies are complex and multifactorial. The prevailing perception is that teenage pregnancies are increasing in South Africa. However, the empirical extent and trends in teenage births in the Western Cape Province are not well understood. A systematic analysis of routine health information for the data element.Delivery in facility to women under 18 years for the period 1 April 2000 to 31 March 2012 is presented in order to contribute to documenting and understanding how this problem manifests in the Western Cape Province.Objectives:The objectives of the study were to describe the trends in the number of deliveries for women under the age of 18 years in the Western Cape Province for the period 1 April 2000 until 31 March 2012, and to compare the trends within and between districts. A secondary aim was to explore the quality and usefulness of Routine Health Information in the Western Cape Province focusing on the dataset for deliveries for women under the age of 18 years.Methods:The data for the Province extracted from the Sinjani system (the data repository for health information management in the Western Cape Department of Health) was subjected to a trend analysis at the Provincial, District and Sub-District level. The absolute numbers of all deliveries, and deliveries for women under the age of 18 years as well as proportions of deliveries for women under the age of 18 years were compared across districts, years and seasons. Results were discussed with senior managers in the Department of Health as compared to performance indicators presented in workshop settings to triangulate and help interpret findings.Findings The key finding is that both the absolute number of deliveries for women under the age of 18 years and the deliveries for women under the age of 18 years relative to all deliveries have declined steadily since 2007, while 8 absolute numbers of deliveries in 2012 were only slightly higher than in 2000-2001, despite an increase of 19.4% in the total population of the Province between 2002 and 2011. Despite the decline in the number of deliveries for women under the age of 18 years, the number of deliveries remains high. Seasonal increases in numbers of deliveries coincide with school holidays in most districts. The data analysis also revealed challenges with the quality of the data, and that it is not possible to determine the age distribution of deliveries across women under 18 years from the provincial data set. Routinely collected data do not permit analysis or comparison of births at the ward level where significant socio-economic variations are likely to influence fertility.Conclusions and Recommendations:The data did not support widespread perceptions of rapidly increasing teen births. The declining birth rates and relatively stable proportion of under 18 births relative to all births suggest that adding new indicators throughout the entire routine information system is not justified on public health or economic grounds. However, more detailed and disaggregated evidence is needed to inform locally tailored interventions and could be obtained from alternate sources of information such as point prevalence surveys, annual surveys, or data collection at sentinel sites. While teenage birth rates are not increasing, they remain high. It is recommended that additional service delivery models be explored to ensure that sexual reproductive health services are strengthened and delivered in a manner that would be acceptable to young people. Further, it is recommended that programmatic interventions that target the sexual reproductive health choices made by young people be scaled up in partnership with intersectoral partners and communities in order to mitigate against seasonal increases in the number of deliveries for women under 18 years of age.