Die Jahresmitteltemperatur-Zeitreihen dreier Stationen (Berlin, Leipzig und Stockholm) werden auf ihre langfristigen Trends im Zeitbereich 1830-1980 untersucht. Dazu wird die neuartige, parametrische Methode der Rampenregression (Mudelsee 1999a) verwendet. Die Vorteile gegenüber bisher verwendeten Verfahren sind (1) eine realistischeres Übergangsmodell und (2) Angaben des statistischen Fehlers geschätzter Übergangs-Zeitpunkte und -Niveaus. Leipzig (Erwärmung um 0.86±0.13 °C von 1889±7bis1911±7) und Stockholm (Erwärmung um 1.01±0.22 °C von 1879±23 bis 1945±21) zeigen beide einen rampenförmigen Trendverlauf, Berlin dagegen einen noch komplizierteren Trend. Im Falle von Leipzig liegt wahrscheinlich ein deutlicher Urbanisierungseinfluß vor. Die Rampenregression bietet die Möglichkeit, einen globalen Klimawechsel genauer zu quantifizieren. / Timeseries of annual average temperature from three stations (Berlin, Leipzig and Stockholm) are investigated with regards to their long-term trends in the time interval 1830-1980. For that, the new, parametric method of ramp function regression (Mudelsee 1999a) is used. The advantages against other previously employed methods are (1) a more realistic transition model and (2) information about the statistical accuracy of estimated transition dates and levels. Both Leipzig (warming by 0.86±0.13 °C, from 1889±7 to 1911±7) and Stockholm (warming by 1.01±0.22 °C, from 1879±23 to 1945±21) show a ramp-form trend, whereas Berlin\''s trend is even more complicated. In the case of Leipzig a significant contribution by urbanization is likely. Ramp function regression has the potential to quantify a global climate change more accurately.

Trender är ett fenomen som innebär en tydlig och stabil förändring av något på marknaden. Inom sportens värld finns det en trend som varit speciellt uppmärksammad och aktuell de senaste åren. Sporten det handlar om är padel, vilket för många var ett okänt område för bara 5 år sedan, men som nu växt fram till att vara en uppskattad sport eller motionsform i Sverige. Förmågan att snappa upp och utnyttja en affärsmöjlighet eller en trend är en väsentlig egenskap för att kunna starta och driva en lönsam verksamhet och det är vanligt att det är just de som kallas entreprenörer som besitter denna förmåga. Syftet med denna studie är att skapa medvetenhet kring hur entreprenörer identifierat och värderat trenden padel och dess affärsmässiga potential. Studien har genomförts med en kvalitativ metod, varvid fem semistrukturerade intervjuer har genomförts med fem olika entreprenörer inom padelbranschen. Forskarna har använt sig av en abduktiv ansats, där teori och empiri har samlats in växelvis. Litteraturgenomgången presenterar teorier kring vad en trend och affärsmöjlighet är samt hur en trend kan urskiljas. Även teorier kring en entreprenörs personlighet samt hur man identifierar och värderar en trend behandlas. Resultatet av studien grundar sig i att tillvägagångssättet för entreprenörer som startat verksamhet inom padel skildrar sig från hur det vanligtvis går till vid ett företags framväxt. Där entreprenörens affärsnätverk, identifiering och värdering av affärsmöjligheten tillsammans med dennes personlighet har legat till grund för bedömningen av padelns affärsmässiga potential.

Obiettivo di questa tesi è una lettura del coolhunting, attività professionale ancora relativamente poco diffusa, come luogo emblematico di meccanismi simbolici cruciali per spiegare non solo il sistema della moda ma anche molti degli andamenti della produzione e del consumo di beni materiali ricchi di contenuti immateriali. Non a caso, il debito teorico di questo lavoro non riguarda solo i fashion studies a partire dal classico saggio di Simmel, ma soprattutto un autore come Pierre Bourdieu, che poche pagine ha dedicato alla moda ma ha coniato concetti, come quelli di campo, capitale culturale e simbolico, habitus e distinzione, che sono diventati imprescindibili in ogni studio di tipo culturale. La base empirica della ricerca è costituita da 42 interviste del tipo racconti di vita, che hanno coinvolto una variegata popolazione di coolhunters inseriti in agenzie o nelle imprese della moda, ricercatori e consulenti free-lance, le cui esperienze lavorative sono analiticamente descritte nei capitoli centrali della tesi. La ricostruzione del mondo del coolhunting si avvale anche di una accurata ricerca effettuata su siti web dedicati. Nel capitolo finale la prospettiva teorica e il corpus di informazioni raccolte trovano una sintesi in (a) una definizione articolata ma precisa di cool-hunter; (b) una tipologia idealtipica; (c) nel concetto bourdieusiano di distinzione, che sembra essere la posta in gioco intorno alla quale ruota tutto il mondo del coolhunting. I coolhunters emergono come intermediari culturali riconosciuti per la loro capacità di cogliere gli stili di consumo emergenti e le macrotendenze culturali per offrirli come spunto alla creatività dei produttori di oggetti di moda mainstream. / The aim of this thesis is a reading of coolhunting, an emergent professional activity, as an emblematic place of symbolic mechanisms that are crucial in order to explain not only the fashion system but also many cultural processes of the production and the consumption of material goods rich of immaterial contents. The theoretical debt does not regard only the fashion studies, beginning from the classic work of Simmel, but above all an author like Pierre Bourdieu, that has dedicated few pages to the fashion, but has coined concepts - as those of field, cultural and symbolic capital, habitus, distinction - that are nowadays essential in every cultural study. The empiric base of the research is a set of 42 in-depht interviews that have involved a heterogeneous population of coolhunters working in trend agencies or fashion companies, researchers and free-lance consultants, whose working experiences are analytically described in the central chapters of the thesis. The reconstruction of the world of the coolhunting is carried out also with a search based on dedicated websites. In the final chapter the theoretical perspective and the empirical evidences are summarized in (a) an articulate definition of coolhunter; b) an idealtypical classification of coolhunting workers; (c) in Pierre Bourdiue’s concept of distinction, that seems to be the stake that moves the field of coolhunting. The coolhunters emerge as cultural intermediaries recognized for their ability to identify the emergent styles of consumption and macro-cultural trends in order to offer them as useful ideas to the creativity of the producers of fashionable mainstream objects.

Thesis is focused on the analysis of intersexual differences in adiposity markers within urban population of Czech children from 11,00 to 15,99 years. This age range encompasses puberty which is one of the critical periods for the possible development of overweight and obesity. The sample PRAHA 2013 consists of 356 girls and 353 boys which were surveyed for basic anthropometric indicators - body height, body weight, BMI, mid- upper arm circumference and the thickness of four skinfolds. Intersexual differences discovered in measured parameters show statistical significance (p<0,01 resp. p<0,001) and it corresponds with the characteristic changes of pubertal development in both of genders. Testing file PRAHA 2013 against reference standards and its comparison with the results of the last Czechoslovak spartakiade in 1985 points to positive secular trend of increasing body height. However increase in weight parametres is still continuing. Probands from the year 2013 reach higher body weight values, BMI and skinfold thickness in comparison with children of the same age in 1985, 1991 resp. 2001. Significant differences were found out in the most of age categories in both of genders. Keywords: adiposity tissue, subcutaneous fat, skinfolds, body fat distribution, sexual dimorphism, obesity, secular trend

Since the beginning of the last century there have been significant changes in the environment, farming and the landscape structure. Because birds are one of the longest- studied groups of organisms and are considered to be good indicators of environmental quality, it is advisable to relate environmental changes to changes in bird abundance. Understanding these relationships enables better and more accurate formulation of conservation plans and priorities, and therefore a large number of studies were dedicated to them. Although these studies achieved great progress in the knowledge of the most important factors that affect bird populations, their findings remained somewhat incomplete and fragmentary due to their limited temporal and/or spatial coverage. Therefore, it was not entirely clear which patterns are general and which are confined to some specific regional conditions. The fill this knowledge gap, I collected all studies on long-term trends in bird abundance in Europe and North America, which I was aware of, and made a meta-analysis of their results. Using linear mixed-effects models, I found a significant decrease in open-habitat species, probably as a result of agricultural intensification and abandonment of agricultural land. This pattern was consistent regardless of region or time period...

La cité maritime subit le trend de la récession du XIVe siècle jusqu'à son inversion pour celui de la croissance, mutation due, à Toulon, au dynamisme de la draperie et de la construction navale. La croissance, élevée après 1517, se matérialise par la reconstruction des faubourgs. Les options commerciales des négociants, vente d'huile, de draps, de cuirs et peaux, de barques et de petites nefs sur un marché élargi, vont dégager des bénéfices considérables. Les édiles vont contrôler progressivement les maux dont souffre la cité : sa carence en céréales, les épidémies de peste et de lèpre, les menaces de flottes hostiles, la dette contractée, après emprunt, chez les marchands florentins avignonnais. Une oligarchie d'une trentaine de familles, associant notaires et marchands, a dirigé la ville. / The maritime city undergoes the recession's trend of the 15th century until its inversion toward growth, a mutation due to the dynamism of Toulon drapery and shipbuilding. The high growth after 1517 is materialized by the reconstruction of the suburbs. The commercial options of traders, selling oil, sheets, hides and skins, boats and small ships on a wider market, will generate substantial profits. The councilors will gradually control the evills of the city : its deficiencies in cereals, epidemies of plagues and leprosy, threats of hostile fleets, debt after borrowing Florentine merchants in Avignon. An oligarchy of thirty families associating notaries and merchants, led the city during the last century of the middle ages.

The Thesis is treating the spreading of non-native waterfowl species into new ecosystems and factors, which influence that process. The impact of selected eco-geographic characteristics on the species diversity and on the numbers of non-native waterfowl individuals was analyzed on the results of the International Waterbird Census. Further, the influence of those characteristics on the numbers and population trends of selected 11 species of the Anatidae family in 17 European countries was assessed. The highest non-native waterfowl species diversity was recorded in countries of the Atlantic coast, i.e. France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and also Switzerland. The main positive influence on their numbers makes the density of population and species diversity of wintering waterfowl. As to the number of non-native species individuals the main impact is produced by both, species diversity and the given latitude, too. It means that the largest number of individual exist in northern countries - Great Britain, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. Similar main influences have been traced with the family Anatidae, too, which have received special attention in the analysis, as it shows the highest number of non- native species. As to the main eco-geographic characteristics, having impact on the growth or...

Thesis aims to analyze some auxological aspects of menarche in a sample of peripubertal school-aged Prague girls. Sample PRAHA 2012 consists of 293 girls from Prague within the age ranging from 11,00 - 14,99 years. Ascertained median age of menarche 12,4 years is significantly lower (p = 0,0004) than median of Prague population - 13,04 years, respectively lower than median age of menarche of Czech population - 13,00 years according to data from the last national anthropological survey (CAV 2001). Our investigation suggests a "break off" in long-term stagnation age of menarche (minus 0,6 year) at least in a urban population in Czech Republic. According to our findings deceleration age of menarche wasn't accompanied by increase of average body height or other nutritional characteristics (body weight, BMI, arm circumference, thickness of skinfolds) in comparison with actual pediatrics standards. Though, there is a clearly evidence that participant's body composition affected age of menarche. A comparison of premenarcheal (n = 139) and postmenarcheal (n = 154) girls of the same age showed statistically significant elevated values in body weight (42,5 kg, 47,6 kg vs 56,3 kg, 54,1 kg), BMI (17,6 kg/mš, 18,3kg/mš vs 21,3 kg/mš, 20,7 kg/mš) and percentage of body fat (19,4%, 19,7% vs 24,5% a 23,1%) at...

A deriva litorânea é estudada no litoral sul do Espírito Santo através de diferentes técnicas: distribuição de Minerais Pesados (MP); modelo conceitual Análise de Transport de Sedimento (Sediment Trend Analysis - STA), através da variação de parâmetros texturais do sedimento; dados de clima de onda entre 1997 e 2010 do modelo global WaveWatch III propagados para a zona costeira através do modelo Delft-3D, fornecendo parâmetros necessários para as equações de deriva; e imagens de satélite e fotografias aéreas para avaliar a variação espaço-temporal da morfologia costeira. O modelo STA mostrou-se confiável apenas nos dois setores ao norte, enquanto nos demais os resultados foram mascarados por altos teores de MP e/ou carbonato e a entrada de outras fácies no sistema; as equações representaram bem a variação da morfologia costeira na área de estudos. De maneira geral, os setores ao sul apresentaram transporte longitudinal para sul, e os setores ao norte, para norte, fato relacionado à batimetria local. A orientação da linha de costa auxiliou na compreensão dos fenômenos erosivos, pois em sua maioria estão orientados no sentido NEN, formando 45º com as ondas dos setores de ESE e SE. / Longshore drift is studied in the southern portion of Espírito Santo through different techniques: Heavy Minerals (HM) distribution; the conceptual model Sediment Trend Analysis (STA) by sediment textural parameters fluctuation; wave climate data between 1997 and 2010 from WaveWatch III propagated to the coastal zone through Delft-3D model, providing the required data for longshore drift equations; and satellite images and aerial photograph to survey time-space coastline variations. The STA model appears to be trustworthy only within the northern sectors, as high HM and/or carbonate content and different facies input into the system may mask the results. Broadly speaking, the southern sectors showed longshore transport southward, while northern sectors showed northward longshore transport, which is related to local bathymetry. Shoreline azimuth helped understanding the location of erosive zones, since most of them are turned NEN, 45o with ESE and SE wave sectors.

O estudo de séries temporais para a geração de conhecimento é uma área que vem crescendo em importância e complexidade ao longo da última década, à medida que a quantidade de dados armazenados cresce exponencialmente. Considerando este cenário, novas técnicas de mineração de dados têm sido constantemente desenvolvidas para lidar com esta situação. Neste trabalho é proposto o estudo de séries temporais baseado em suas características topológicas, observadas em uma rede complexa gerada com os dados da série temporal. Especificamente, o objetivo do modelo proposto é criar um algoritmo de detecção de tendências para séries temporais estocásticas baseado em detecção de comunidades e caminhadas nesta mesma rede. O modelo proposto apresenta algumas vantagens em relação à métodos tradicionais, como o número adaptativo de classes, com força mensurável, e uma melhor absorção de ruídos. Resultados experimentais em bases artificiais e reais mostram que o método proposto é capaz de classificar as séries temporais em padrões locais e globais, melhorando a previsibilidade das séries ao se utilizar métodos de aprendizado de máquina para a previsão das classes / Extracting knowledge from time series analysis has been growing in importance and complexity over the last decade as the amount of stored data has increased exponentially. Considering this scenario, new data mining techniques have continuously developed to deal with such a situation. In this work, we propose to study time series based on its topological characteristics, observed on a complex network generated from the time series data. Specifically, the aim of the proposed model is to create a trend detection algorithm for stochastic time series based on community detection and network metrics. The proposed model presents some advantages over traditional time series analysis, such as adaptive number of classes with measurable strength and better noise absorption. Experimental results on artificial and real datasets shows that the proposed method is able to classify the time series into local and global patterns, improving the predictability of the series when using machine-learning methods