11 |
Tratamento de incertezas no planejamento do fechamento de mina. / Dealing with uncertainty in the mine closing planning.Neri, Ana Claudia 23 May 2013 (has links)
Incertezas são inerentes ao planejamento de fechamento de mina, atividade que requer o trato de complexas questões técnicas, sociais, econômicas e ambientais em perspectiva de longo prazo e com base em informação e conhecimentos fragmentados e não sistemáticos. Incertezas nas tomadas de decisões podem resultar em ações de fechamento ineficazes e/ou ineficientes, ou seja, que não alcancem os objetivos esperados e/ou demandem vultosos recursos financeiros, humanos e outros. Esta pesquisa procurou compreender a natureza das incertezas presentes no processo de planejamento de fechamento de mina por meio da definição de suas causas, tipos e formas de tratamento e analisar como são abordadas em guias de boas práticas. Incerteza, no contexto do planejamento de fechamento de mina, é entendida como uma situação na qual há conhecimento incompleto, imprevisibilidade ou não há um único entendimento do processo a ser gerenciado. Nesse contexto, as principais causas das incertezas são, respectivamente, insuficiência de conhecimento, variabilidade do comportamento dos componentes do processo, no tempo e no espaço e diferentes enfoques ou recortes da situação analisada. Foram definidos oito tipos de incertezas pertinentes ao planejamento de fechamento de mina, agrupadas em três componentes (i) naturais (incertezas ambientais, geológicas, geotécnicas), (ii) técnicos (incertezas operacionais, tecnológicos), (iii) socioeconômicos (incertezas sociais, regulatórias, gerenciais, econômicas). Associações de empresas e órgãos públicos têm publicado guias e documentos de diretrizes para orientar as empresas a planejar o fechamento de mina. No entanto, esses guias não parecem ser explícitos quanto ao reconhecimento e tratamento de incertezas no planejamento de fechamento. Assim, por meio da técnica de análise de conteúdo, quatro guias de boas práticas foram examinados para verificar, se e como, abordam ou recomendam diretrizes para lidar com incertezas no planejamento de fechamento. Os resultados mostraram que certos tipos de incerteza são reconhecidos pelos guias, que recomendam algumas diretrizes para lidar, em especial, com incertezas ambientais, sociais, regulatórias e econômicas. Porém, (i) os guias não demonstram uma clara concepção ou entendimento das incertezas inerentes ao planejamento de fechamento de mina, embora em algumas situações reconheçam sua existência e influência; (ii) a maior ênfase dos guias em relação aos aspectos ambientais pode induzir as empresas a alocarem responsabilidades para tratar questões relativas ao fechamento ao departamento de meio ambiente ou de relações comunitárias e não induzirem que sejam tratadas a nível estratégico pela alta direção da empresa e (iii) a maioria dos guias, não fornece diretrizes para melhorar e avaliar a qualidade das informações/conhecimento nas tomadas de decisões. É proposto um esquema analítico para lidar com as incertezas no planejamento de fechamento, composto por três etapas: (i) identificação dos tipos de incertezas; (ii) definição das causas das incertezas e (iii) definição de ações e estratégias para lidar com as incertezas. Espera-se que a proposta possa contribuir para que as empresas de mineração considerem, de maneira estruturada, as incertezas em suas decisões relativas ao fechamento, e que órgãos públicos possam utilizá-la para avaliar as informações apresentadas em planos de fechamento e demais estudos técnicos relativos à autorização e licenciamento de projetos. / Uncertainties are intrinsic to the mine closure planning, activity which involves complex long-term technical, social, economic and environmental questions, based on fragmented and non-systematic information and knowledge. Uncertainties in decision-making may lead to inefficacious closing actions, which do not achieve the expected goals and/or demand a lot of financial, human and other types of resources. This research aimed at understanding the nature of the uncertainties involved in the mine closure planning process by defining their causes, types and ways to deal with them and analyzing how they are treated in best-practice guidelines. Uncertainty in the context of mine closure planning is understood as a situation in which there is incomplete knowledge, unpredictability or no single way to understand the process to be managed. In this context, the main causes of uncertainties are respectively: lack of knowledge, time and space variability of the behavior of the components in the process and different approaches or understanding about the analyzed situation. Eight types of uncertainties regarding the mine closure planning have been defined and grouped in three components: (i) natural (environmental, geological and geotechnical uncertatinty), technical (operational and technological uncertatinty), (iii) social- economical (social, regulatory, management and economic uncertainties). Enterprises associations and public agencies have been publishing guidelines to provide the companies with advice on how to plan the mine closure. However, these guidelines do not seem to be explicit in recognizing and dealing with uncertainty in the closure planning. Thus, using the content analysis technique, four best practice guidelines have been examined in order to determine whether and how they approach or produce advice to deal with uncertainty in the closure planning. The results have shown that certain types of uncertainty are addressed by the guidelines, which provide some advices to deal particularly with environmental, social, regulatory and economic uncertainties. Nevertheless, the guidelines: (i) do not present a clear concept or understanding about the uncertainty which are intrinsic to the mine closure planning, although in some situations the recognize their existence and influence; (ii) the higher emphasis on the environmental aspects used by the guidelines may induce the companies to allocate reponsibilities to deal with x questions related with the closure, the environmental department or the relations with the community and cause them not be treated in strategic level by the company and (iii) most guidelines do not provide advices on how to improve and evaluate the quality of the information/knowledge of the decision-making. An analytical scheme composed by three steps is proposed to deal with the uncertainties in the closure planning: (i) identification of the uncertainty type; (ii) definition of uncertainty causes and (iii) definitions of actions and strategies to deal with uncertainties. This proposal may contribute for the mining companies to consider in a structured way the uncertainties in their closure-related decisions and for the public agencies to evaluate the information present in closure plans and other technical studies related to licensing projects.
|
12 |
Desenvolvimento e produção de material de referência certificado de folhas de cana-de-açúcar para avaliação da qualidade nutricional / Development and production of certified reference material of sugarcane leaves for assessment of nutritional qualityMartinez, Maria Isabel Vega 29 April 2016 (has links)
A cana-de-açúcar e produtos derivados são de grande relevância econômica para o Brasil e vários outros países. Inúmeras variedades de cana-de-açúcar são cultivadas e novas variedades têm sido desenvolvidas para buscar ganhos de produtividade. Nesse sentido, são indispensáveis materiais de referência certificados (CRMs) para o controle da qualidade de sistemas de medição e validação de métodos, objetivando o estudo do estado nutricional das diferentes variedades de cana-de-açúcar, de modo a otimizar os procedimentos de fertilização e incrementar a produção. Contudo, segundo a base de dados internacional de materiais de referência certificados (COMAR) não existe um CRM que atenda adequadamente a avaliação do estado nutricional da cana-de-açúcar. Assim, este trabalho investigou a possibilidade de produção de um material de referência de folhas de cana-de-açúcar que supra essa demanda. O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas principais: 1) estudo de variedades de cana-de-açúcar quanto à composição elementar e 2) desenvolvimento do material de referência. Doze variedades de cana-de-açúcar cultivadas no Estado de São de Paulo foram abrangidas no estudo: CTC2, CTC4, CTC11, CTC14, CTC15, CTC17, CTC20, IACSP955000, RB855156, RB965902, RB966928 e SP832847. As técnicas analíticas utilizadas para a avaliação foram a análise por ativação neutrônica instrumental (INAA) e a espectrometria de emissão óptica com plasma acoplado indutivamente (ICP OES), além do método de Kjeldahl para determinação de N. Em geral, os resultados mostraram macronutrientes em níveis adequados, enquanto, dentre os micronutrientes, Cu e Zn foram encontrados no limite crítico para quase todas as variedades estudadas. A seleção da variedade RB966928 para produção do material de referência candidato foi baseada nas características nutricionais para alta produtividade, nos menores valores de coeficientes de variação de amostragem em campo (CV<30%) e nas características agronômicas. A produção do material candidato foi realizada a partir de 90 kg de folhas, utilizando apenas 15 cm da parte central sem a nervura principal. Após diversos testes para determinar o melhor procedimento de preparo, as folhas foram liofilizadas, moídas e homogeneizadas, obtendo-se 410 frascos do material candidato contendo 20 g cada. A caracterização física mostrou umidade residual do material de 3,8 % e tamanho de partículas < 115 µm. Testes de homogeneidade dentro do frasco e entre frascos foram realizados utilizando INAA e método de Kjeldahl. Os resultados de fração de massa demonstraram a homogeneidade do material dentro de frascos para dezoito elementos, usando massas de 180 mg a 200 mg. Já a homogeneidade entre frascos foi comprovada para vinte elementos. Estudos de estabilidade a curto e a longo prazo demonstraram que o material manteve-se estável nas três condições avaliadas (40°C com umidade relativa a 100%, 20°C e -20°C). A caracterização química final do material foi realizada no National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Estados Unidos, onde foram atribuídos valores para dezoito elementos com respectivas incertezas expandidas associadas: Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Co, Cs, Fe, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sc, Sm, Th e Zn. Além disso, foram atribuídos valores estimativos para Hf, N, P, Sb, Sr e V determinados pelo método de Kjeldahl e INAA / The sugarcane and derived products are of great economic importance for Brazil and several other countries. Many varieties of sugar cane are grown and new varieties have been developed to seek productivity gains. In this sense, certified reference materials (CRMs) are necessary for the quality control of measurement systems and validation of methods, aiming at the study of the nutritional status of the different sugarcane varieties for optimizing fertilization and increasing production. However, according to the international database of certified reference materials (COMAR) there is not a suitable CRM for the assessment of nutritional status of sugarcane. Thus, this work investigates the possibility of producing a reference material from leaves of sugarcane to fulfill such a demand. The work was divided into two main steps: 1) study of sugarcane varieties regarding elemental composition and 2) development of the reference material. Twelve varieties of sugarcane grown in the State of São Paulo were covered in the study: CTC2, CTC4, CTC11, CTC14, CTC15, CTC17, CTC20, IACSP955000, RB855156, RB965902, RB966928 and SP832847. The analytical techniques used for the assessment of composition were neutron activation analysis (NAA) and optical emission spectrometry with inductively coupled plasma (ICP OES), in addition to the Kjeldahl method for determination of N. In general, the results showed macronutrients in adequate levels, while, among the micronutrients, Cu and Zn were found in the critical limit for almost all the varieties studied. The selection of the variety RB966928 for producing the candidate reference material was based on the nutritional characteristics for high productivity, on the lower coefficients of variation of sampling in the field (RSD < 30%) and on the agronomic characteristics. The candidate material was produced from 90 kg of leaves, using only 15 cm from the central part without the main rib. After various tests for determining the best preparation procedure, the leaves were lyophilized, milled and homogenized, obtaining 410 bottles of the candidate material containing 20 g each. The physical characterization found residual moisture of 3.8 % and particle size < 115 µm. Homogeneity tests within and between bottles were performed using NAA and Kjeldahl method. The results confirmed the within bottle homogeneity of the material for all eighteen elements, using masses from 180 mg to 200 mg, while the homogeneity between bottles was confirmed for twenty elements. Stability studies in the short and the long term demonstrated that the material was stable in the three conditions used (40°C with a relative humidity of 100%, 20°C and 20°C). The final characterization of the candidate material was performed at NIST, National Institute of Standards and Technology, United States, where values were assigned for eighteen elements with respective expanded uncertainties: Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Co, Cs, Fe, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sc, Sm, Th, and Zn. In addition, estimated values were also assigned for Hf, N, P, Sb, Sr and V determined by the Kjeldahl method and INAA
|
13 |
Desenvolvimento e produção de material de referência certificado de folhas de cana-de-açúcar para avaliação da qualidade nutricional / Development and production of certified reference material of sugarcane leaves for assessment of nutritional qualityMaria Isabel Vega Martinez 29 April 2016 (has links)
A cana-de-açúcar e produtos derivados são de grande relevância econômica para o Brasil e vários outros países. Inúmeras variedades de cana-de-açúcar são cultivadas e novas variedades têm sido desenvolvidas para buscar ganhos de produtividade. Nesse sentido, são indispensáveis materiais de referência certificados (CRMs) para o controle da qualidade de sistemas de medição e validação de métodos, objetivando o estudo do estado nutricional das diferentes variedades de cana-de-açúcar, de modo a otimizar os procedimentos de fertilização e incrementar a produção. Contudo, segundo a base de dados internacional de materiais de referência certificados (COMAR) não existe um CRM que atenda adequadamente a avaliação do estado nutricional da cana-de-açúcar. Assim, este trabalho investigou a possibilidade de produção de um material de referência de folhas de cana-de-açúcar que supra essa demanda. O trabalho foi dividido em duas etapas principais: 1) estudo de variedades de cana-de-açúcar quanto à composição elementar e 2) desenvolvimento do material de referência. Doze variedades de cana-de-açúcar cultivadas no Estado de São de Paulo foram abrangidas no estudo: CTC2, CTC4, CTC11, CTC14, CTC15, CTC17, CTC20, IACSP955000, RB855156, RB965902, RB966928 e SP832847. As técnicas analíticas utilizadas para a avaliação foram a análise por ativação neutrônica instrumental (INAA) e a espectrometria de emissão óptica com plasma acoplado indutivamente (ICP OES), além do método de Kjeldahl para determinação de N. Em geral, os resultados mostraram macronutrientes em níveis adequados, enquanto, dentre os micronutrientes, Cu e Zn foram encontrados no limite crítico para quase todas as variedades estudadas. A seleção da variedade RB966928 para produção do material de referência candidato foi baseada nas características nutricionais para alta produtividade, nos menores valores de coeficientes de variação de amostragem em campo (CV<30%) e nas características agronômicas. A produção do material candidato foi realizada a partir de 90 kg de folhas, utilizando apenas 15 cm da parte central sem a nervura principal. Após diversos testes para determinar o melhor procedimento de preparo, as folhas foram liofilizadas, moídas e homogeneizadas, obtendo-se 410 frascos do material candidato contendo 20 g cada. A caracterização física mostrou umidade residual do material de 3,8 % e tamanho de partículas < 115 µm. Testes de homogeneidade dentro do frasco e entre frascos foram realizados utilizando INAA e método de Kjeldahl. Os resultados de fração de massa demonstraram a homogeneidade do material dentro de frascos para dezoito elementos, usando massas de 180 mg a 200 mg. Já a homogeneidade entre frascos foi comprovada para vinte elementos. Estudos de estabilidade a curto e a longo prazo demonstraram que o material manteve-se estável nas três condições avaliadas (40°C com umidade relativa a 100%, 20°C e -20°C). A caracterização química final do material foi realizada no National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Estados Unidos, onde foram atribuídos valores para dezoito elementos com respectivas incertezas expandidas associadas: Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Co, Cs, Fe, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sc, Sm, Th e Zn. Além disso, foram atribuídos valores estimativos para Hf, N, P, Sb, Sr e V determinados pelo método de Kjeldahl e INAA / The sugarcane and derived products are of great economic importance for Brazil and several other countries. Many varieties of sugar cane are grown and new varieties have been developed to seek productivity gains. In this sense, certified reference materials (CRMs) are necessary for the quality control of measurement systems and validation of methods, aiming at the study of the nutritional status of the different sugarcane varieties for optimizing fertilization and increasing production. However, according to the international database of certified reference materials (COMAR) there is not a suitable CRM for the assessment of nutritional status of sugarcane. Thus, this work investigates the possibility of producing a reference material from leaves of sugarcane to fulfill such a demand. The work was divided into two main steps: 1) study of sugarcane varieties regarding elemental composition and 2) development of the reference material. Twelve varieties of sugarcane grown in the State of São Paulo were covered in the study: CTC2, CTC4, CTC11, CTC14, CTC15, CTC17, CTC20, IACSP955000, RB855156, RB965902, RB966928 and SP832847. The analytical techniques used for the assessment of composition were neutron activation analysis (NAA) and optical emission spectrometry with inductively coupled plasma (ICP OES), in addition to the Kjeldahl method for determination of N. In general, the results showed macronutrients in adequate levels, while, among the micronutrients, Cu and Zn were found in the critical limit for almost all the varieties studied. The selection of the variety RB966928 for producing the candidate reference material was based on the nutritional characteristics for high productivity, on the lower coefficients of variation of sampling in the field (RSD < 30%) and on the agronomic characteristics. The candidate material was produced from 90 kg of leaves, using only 15 cm from the central part without the main rib. After various tests for determining the best preparation procedure, the leaves were lyophilized, milled and homogenized, obtaining 410 bottles of the candidate material containing 20 g each. The physical characterization found residual moisture of 3.8 % and particle size < 115 µm. Homogeneity tests within and between bottles were performed using NAA and Kjeldahl method. The results confirmed the within bottle homogeneity of the material for all eighteen elements, using masses from 180 mg to 200 mg, while the homogeneity between bottles was confirmed for twenty elements. Stability studies in the short and the long term demonstrated that the material was stable in the three conditions used (40°C with a relative humidity of 100%, 20°C and 20°C). The final characterization of the candidate material was performed at NIST, National Institute of Standards and Technology, United States, where values were assigned for eighteen elements with respective expanded uncertainties: Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Co, Cs, Fe, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sc, Sm, Th, and Zn. In addition, estimated values were also assigned for Hf, N, P, Sb, Sr and V determined by the Kjeldahl method and INAA
|
14 |
Swedish polar bears on the African savannah – failure or success? : A case study of two Swedish entrepreneurs in ZambiaGullberg, Linn, Pettersson, Hanna January 2013 (has links)
The purpose of this thesis is to explore what factors in the Zambian national business environment that influences the international entrepreneur, describe how Swedish entrepreneurs adapt to the uncertainties that may come with the national business environment in Zambia, and explain the opportunities and threats that come with investing in the country. In order for us to reach our purpose of the thesis, a case study of two Swedish firms has been conducted by interviews. The theoretical framework consists of the business environment, international entrepreneurship, the concept of psychic distance, the PEST analysis model, threats and opportunities, and five uncertainty management strategies. All of these theories are relevant for the study and the research questions. The empirical findings include the case businesses view on the national business environment regarding both threats and opportunities, and how to manage the uncertainties in the best way. In the analysis the theoretical framework is allied to the empirical findings. The analysis consist of an discussion about the Zambian national environment, and an analysis of the strategies that would be most suitable for an international entrepreneur to use when coping with uncertainties, threats and opportunities in Zambia. The conclusion of the thesis shows that the economic and political factors in Zambia create opportunities, while the technological and socio-cultural factors pose threats to the international entrepreneur.
|
15 |
Institutions, Transaction Costs and Entry Mode Decisions : The Case of Swedish SMEs in IndiaLaier, Sebastian, Schramma, Marieke January 2013 (has links)
In the current third wave of internationalization companies from mature markets are investing in emerging markets and increase their foreign activities. For this internationalization process, companies need to enter the market with an appropriate entry mode strategy. Prior research focused mainly on MNC entry modes and also on factors as ownership, location or internalization advantages and not on SMEs and transaction cost theory. This thesis deals with the topic of institutions, transaction costs and entry mode decisions of Swedish SMEs in India. The purpose of this thesis is to understand the managerial perceptions about the influence of institutions on the degree of linkage specificity with which the transaction costs will be explored. This will lead to further knowledge about certain entry mode decisions of Swedish SMEs for the Indian market. This was studied with a qualitative research strategy using a multiple case study method. The empirical data was conducted via secondary data and primary data was collected via interviews with the sales responsible of the four case companies Norden Machinery AB, Slipnaxos AB, Håkansson Sågblad AB and Hedin Lagan AB. Main findings of the research were that institutions are perceived differently by the managers and therefore the institutions dissimilarly influenced the perceptions of the transaction costs. Furthermore, the study revealed that some managers decided their entry mode on the base of the perception of the transaction costs and some managers did not consider transaction costs when entering new markets. All in all it can be stated that transaction costs influence the entry mode of companies. The research is limited by the fact that transaction cost theory in general neglects factors as production costs. Managerial implications are that transactions costs should not be neglected as they help to choose a more successful entry mode and that the assets specificity and the behavioral uncertainties need to be taken into account when deciding upon an entry mode. Theory profits from this thesis as it proved that transaction costs influence entry mode decisions and that the linkage specificity is an important factor to include when combining transaction cost theory with entry mode decisions.
|
16 |
Assessment of uncertainties of soil erosion and sediment yield estimates at two spatial scales in the upper Llobregat basin (se pyrenees, Spain)Catari Yujra, Gusman 12 March 2010 (has links)
La producción de sedimentos en zonas de montaña es un motivo de preocupación no sólo por la pérdida de la fertilidad de la capa superficial de suelo, sino también debido a sus efectos aguas abajo, tales como la deposición de sedimentos en embalses. En este trabajo, la producción de sedimentos se estudio a dos escalas espaciales: una cuenca pequeña y una grande en el noreste de los Pirineos orientales. La cuenca pequeña es Cal Rodó (4,2 km2), y la grande es la cuenca Alta Llobregat del Río Llobregat (504 km2), donde a la salida se encuentra el embalse de La Baells, la primera cuenca está anidado dentro de la última. En Cal Rodó, el objetivo fue determinar y comparar los intervalos de confianza de la carga de sedimentos en suspensión a escala de evento y a escala anual. Los datos utilizados abarcan 10 años (1996-2005). Estos incluyen muestras discretas de agua recogidas por un muestreador automático de agua, lecturas de turbidez proporcionada por un sensor de infrarojo de turbidez, un sensor de ultrasonidos, y mediciones de la lámina de agua. Todo conectado a un registrador de datos. La incertidumbre de producción de sedimentos fueron evaluados por simulaciones de Monte Carlo usando la función de distribución de la carga de sedimentos y modelación de residuales. La producción total para el periodo estudiado y estimada a través de la calibración de sensores de turbidez fue 17,217.0 Mg (4,1 Mg/ha/año) y su intervalo de confianza al 90% está entre 16,311.4 Mg y 18,395.8 Mg. Por otra parte la producción de sedimentos a través de las curvas de transporte de sedimento a escala anual fue de 103,441.0 Mg (24,6 Mg/ha/año), y su intervalo de confianza oscila entre 49,107.0 Mg y 254,803.0 Mg. Las conclusiones generales son que la incertidumbre de la carga de sedimentos por las curvas de transporte de sedimentos son amplias (> 300%) y que la producción de sedimentos se sobreestimo en un orden de magnitud. Una buena distribución de las muestras en todo el hidrograma es necesaria, a fin de desarrollar las curvas de transporte más fiable. La segunda fase de este estudio fue realizada en la cuenca Alta del Río Llobregat donde la cubierta del suelo es principalmente bosque de coníferas y pastos, con presencia de algunas zonas intensamente erosionadas (badlands). El promedio anual de erosión de suelo se estimó cuantitativamente a través de RUSLE integrado en SIG. Los datos tratados provienen de las precipitaciones registradas en ocho estaciones meteorológicas que abarcan 14 años (1991-2004), las propiedades físicas del suelo, el inventario de cubierta vegetal, las características de gestión del suelo y un modelo digital de elevaciones. Todo ello se utilizó como entradas (inputs) para generar cada uno de los factores de RUSLE, las imágenes tienen una resolución de 20 m. La producción de sedimentos se calculó mediante la aplicación de una tasa de entrega de sedimentos (sediment delivery ratio SDR) a los resultados obtenidos por RUSLE. También se llevaron a cabo análisis de sensibilidad para cada uno de los factores de RUSLE y una evaluación de la incertidumbre global de erosión de suelo. Adicionalmente diversos escenarios de erosión de suelos debido al Cambio Global fueron desarrollados. La producción de sedimentos media anual fue de 3,35 Mg/ha/año y el intervalo de confianza al 90% fue entre 0,95 y 13,7 Mg/ha/año. Estos resultados son similares a los resultados de un estudio previo de batimetría del embalse el cual fue de 4.54 Mg/ha/año, y su intervalo de confianza al 90% fue entre 4,29 Mg/ha/año y 4,79 Mg/ha/año. El mapa de riesgos de erosión muestra que pequeñas áreas altamente erosionables (5%) producen el 50% de sedimento. / A better understanding of soil erosion and sediment yield in mountainous areas is needed, for management purposes and to envisage uncertainties when developing soil erosion models. In this thesis, sediment yield estimates and associated uncertainties were studied at two spatial scales: a small catchment (Cal Rodó 4.2 km2) and a relatively large basin (Upper Llobregat Basin 504 km2), the former is nested within the latter, in the SE Pyrenees, Spain. In Cal Rodó stream which is characterized by an event based regime, is assessed the uncertainty of suspended sediment load (SSL) at event and annual scales. SSL in streams are currently estimated using diverse types of sediment rating curves (SRC) that allow the interpolation and extrapolation of the discrete observations of sediment concentrations to the whole range of recorded discharges. However, the accuracy of outcomes using SRCs in mountain event based streams is still unknown. The parameters of the non-linear relationship are obtained by a log transformation and then a bias correction factor is applied, based on the residual analysis. The uncertainty of SSL can be assessed by using Monte-Carlo approaches based on the simulation of residuals. Nevertheless, when these methods are going to be applied in streams with a regime characterized by events, it is necessary to verify if different events have different discharge-concentration relationships; if this occurs, the role of events must be taken into account in the load analyses, as they modify the structure of the residuals. Results showed that when SRCs are used for interpolation between samples, paying attention to the role of events allows to avoid nonlinear bias overcorrection and to reduce the uncertainty associated with the sediment load estimates. The sediment yield from annual and seasonal rating curves were 6.0 and 5.1 times larger than the estimated by sensor calibrations. Therefore a good distribution of samples throughout the hydrograph needs to be ascertained in order to develop reliable SRCs. The second part of this research deals with soil erosion and sediment yield assessment and its associated uncertainties in the Upper Llobregat River Basin. Land cover is mainly coniferous forest and pastures with some intensely eroded areas (badlands). Annual average soil erosion was quantitatively estimated with an integration of GIS and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Maps for each of the factors involved where obtained with a 20 m resolution. Rainfall dataset from eight weather stations and spanning 14 years, soil properties, land cover inventory, land management features and digital elevation model were used as resource datasets to generate each of the RUSLE factor maps. Annual average sediment yield was computed by applying a sediment delivery ratio to the results obtained by RUSLE, and this result was compared with an existing bathymetric survey. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were undertaken for each of the RUSLE factors, in order to assess its magnitude and determine which of the factors influences the most the soil loss estimate. Results show that the annual average sediment yield was 3.35 Mg km-2 yr-1 and its confidence interval lied between 0.95 and 13.7 Mg km-2 yr-1 with 90% confidence. These results are in agreement with results from reservoir bathymetric survey. Additional comparisons of estimated sediment yield were done with empirical methods such as PSIAC and FSM. Erosion risk maps showed that about 5% of the area generated 50% of soil loss. These areas are located in steep slopes and coincide in many cases with badlands which are near the streams. Finally, sediment yield changes under climate conditions for the late 21st Century where not relevant, whilst spreading agricultural activity as in the 1950's had a relevant increase in sediment yield.
|
17 |
Design of Model Reference Adaptive Sliding Mode Tracking Controllers for Systems with Unstructured UncertaintiesLin, Yu-ching 09 April 2007 (has links)
In this thesis a model reference adaptive sliding mode control scheme is proposed for a class of linear time-invariant MIMO systems with unstructured and
input, output uncertainties to solve the robust tracking problems. The designing
of the proposed control scheme is divided into three steps. The first step is to
design the sliding functions, the second step is to construct the estimators of the
lumped perturbation. These estimators are able to estimate the derivatives of the
tracking errors. The third step is to design the adaptive sliding mode controller.
The proposed control scheme is designed without requiring the information of
the upper bound of perturbations, and guarantee the stability of the controlled
system. In fact the asymptotical stability can be achieved for some special cases.
Finally, three numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of
the proposed control scheme.
|
18 |
Hur kan incitament hantera interorganisatoriska osäkerheter i en leverantörsrelation? : En fallstudie av AstraZeneca / How can incentives handle interorganizational uncertainties in a supplier relationship? : A case study ofAstraZenecaFonseka, Christopher, Ny, Jesper January 2015 (has links)
Bakgrund: Efter en litteratursökning har vi uppmärksammat att forskning kring leverantörsrelationer existerar, men däremot är bristfällig när det kommer till kopplingen mellan incitament, interorganisatorisk styrning och osäkerheter. Att studera detta samband är därför av intresse för oss eftersom det bidrar till den akademiska forskningen inom interorganisatorisk styrning. Detta genom att införa en infallsvinkel på incitament, då vår teoretiska härledning menar att incitament hanterar osäkerheter i en leverantörsrelation. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att beskriva vilka interorganisatoriska osäkerheter som köparen upplever i en leverantörsrelation samt vilken effekt osäkerheterna har i leverantörsrelationen. Syftet är även att beskriva hur köparen med incitament hanterar interorganisatoriska osäkerheter i en leverantörsrelation. Genomförande: Genom att kombinera en teoretisk osäkerhetsmodell med kvalitativa intervjuer har en jämförande fallstudie av leverantörsrelationerna till Arcadia, Nexus och Valhalla genomförts för att besvara syftet. Slutsats: Uppsatsen bekräftar att det finns fyra olika typer av osäkerheter i en leverantörsrelation, vilka är uppgiftsosäkerhet, uppgiftsberoende, osäkerheter i omgivningen och relationell stabilitet. Effekten av dessa osäkerheter härleds i en teoretisk osäkerhetsmodell som även empiriskt bekräftas. I de studerade leverantörsrelationerna identifieras även olika incitament som hanterar osäkerheter som köparen upplever i en leverantörsrelation. / Background: After a literature review we discovered that research about supplierrelationships exists, but that the connection between incentives, interorganizational controlssystems and uncertainties is absent. To study this connection is therefore in our interestbecause it contributes to academic research in the field of interorganizational controlsystems. This is because incentives bring a new perspective to the connection betweeninterorganizational control systems and uncertainties. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to describe which interorganizational uncertaintiesa buyer experiences within a supplier relationship and how the uncertainties affect thesupplier relationship. The purpose of the study is also to describe how a buyer can handleinterorganizational uncertainties with incentives. Completion: A comparative analysis of the supplier relationships to Arcadia, Nexus andValhalla was achieved by combining a theoretical uncertainty model and qualitativeinterviews. Conclusions: The study confirms that there are four different types of uncertainties in asupplier relationship, which are task uncertainty, task interdependency, environmentaluncertainties and relational stability. The effect of the uncertainties in a relationship isderived in a theoretical uncertainty model and is also empirically confirmed. The studyfurthermore identifies incentives that handle uncertainties the buyer experiences in asupplier relationship.
|
19 |
Prospecção das incertezas após a implantação de uma empresa de biodiesel em uma região produtora de soja no Rio Grande do Sul/BrasilSluszz, Thaisy January 2007 (has links)
Este estudo teve o objetivo de prospectar as incertezas após a implantação de uma empresa produtora de biodiesel em um município produtor de soja do Rio Grande do Sul. A pesquisa é classificada como exploratória e a metodologia utilizada foi a de prospecção de cenários futuros, finalizada na quarta etapa (identificação das incertezas chave). A coleta de dados foi operacionalizada por meio de entrevistas com perguntas abertas e fechadas aos representantes dos elos de produção, beneficiamento e P&D da soja e biodiesel e visitas às empresas e instituições envolvidas nas cadeias produtivas. Dessa forma, por meio de observações, além de pesquisas bibliográficas, percebe-se uma grande necessidade de encontrar mecanismos de colaboração entre os agentes da cadeia produtiva da soja e do biodiesel, visando obter sucesso na implantação do PROBIODIESEL na região. As incertezas identificadas se referem a questões como: a disseminação da cultura administrativa no segmento de produção visando a incorporação de um sistema de gestão apropriado para a agricultura familiar; a intensificação do melhoramento genético de cultivares de soja adaptadas às condições locais, produção de biodiesel e agricultura familiar de pequeno/médio porte, com vistas ao monocultivo incentivado; a consolidação do PROBIODIESEL em termos de benefícios promovidos pelo governo federal como o Selo Combustível Social e a linha adicional do Pronaf; apoio técnico e financeiro para que o programa consiga o patamar esperado em termos de produção e realização de metas; organização da cadeia produtiva da soja em função do biodiesel e em parceria com a cadeia produtiva deste; e, a melhoria da infra-estrutura de logística para facilitar a colaboração entre os elos. As conclusões da pesquisa podem contribuir para a organização da cadeia produtiva da soja como matéria-prima do biodiesel, auxiliando-a na definição de futuros cenários agronômicos, políticos, econômicos e ambientais, somadas às informações internas disponíveis e à vontade de colaboração entre os elos para dar andamento a implantação do PROBIODIESEL na região. / The purpose of this study is to identify the uncertainties after the establishment of the biodiesel´s company in a Rio Grande do Sul s region that produce soybean. This research is classified as an exploratory survey. The methodology used Future Sets Prospection and it was finished in the fourth stage (Identification of key-uncertanties), due to the specify information that emphasize the risk perceptions to guide future plans of envolved actors. The corpus was colected by interviews with open and closed questions. The participants were representants of production, improvement and soybeans´s P&D and biodiesel. Visits to Companies and Institutions envolved in the productive chain were done to provide familiarity with the problem. Observations and the review of literature helped to understand the necessity to find out mecanisms of colaboration between agents of Productive chains of soybeans and the biodiesel, in order to have success in the PROBIODIESEL establishment in the region. The uncertanties identified refers to questions such as: the incorporation of appropriated management system to the familiar agriculture; the intensification of genetic improvement of the cultivated soybeans adapted to local condictions, production of biodiesel and the small/medium familiar agriculture, to devolop the monoculture; the program´s consolidation in terms of benefits provide by the Federal Government such as Social Fuel and the adicional Pronaf´s Line, technical and financial support to the program aiming to get in the top in terms of production and realization of goals; organization of productive chains of soybeans in relation to biodiesel and partnership of Productive chains; and the implementation of logistics infra-structure to facilitate the colaboration of links. The results can contribue to the organization of Productive Chains of soybeans as raw material to the biodiesel helping to define future sets of agronomics, politics, economics and environmental, added to internal informations available and the desire of colaboration between links in order to promote the PROBIODIESEL establishment in the region.
|
20 |
Prospecção das incertezas após a implantação de uma empresa de biodiesel em uma região produtora de soja no Rio Grande do Sul/BrasilSluszz, Thaisy January 2007 (has links)
Este estudo teve o objetivo de prospectar as incertezas após a implantação de uma empresa produtora de biodiesel em um município produtor de soja do Rio Grande do Sul. A pesquisa é classificada como exploratória e a metodologia utilizada foi a de prospecção de cenários futuros, finalizada na quarta etapa (identificação das incertezas chave). A coleta de dados foi operacionalizada por meio de entrevistas com perguntas abertas e fechadas aos representantes dos elos de produção, beneficiamento e P&D da soja e biodiesel e visitas às empresas e instituições envolvidas nas cadeias produtivas. Dessa forma, por meio de observações, além de pesquisas bibliográficas, percebe-se uma grande necessidade de encontrar mecanismos de colaboração entre os agentes da cadeia produtiva da soja e do biodiesel, visando obter sucesso na implantação do PROBIODIESEL na região. As incertezas identificadas se referem a questões como: a disseminação da cultura administrativa no segmento de produção visando a incorporação de um sistema de gestão apropriado para a agricultura familiar; a intensificação do melhoramento genético de cultivares de soja adaptadas às condições locais, produção de biodiesel e agricultura familiar de pequeno/médio porte, com vistas ao monocultivo incentivado; a consolidação do PROBIODIESEL em termos de benefícios promovidos pelo governo federal como o Selo Combustível Social e a linha adicional do Pronaf; apoio técnico e financeiro para que o programa consiga o patamar esperado em termos de produção e realização de metas; organização da cadeia produtiva da soja em função do biodiesel e em parceria com a cadeia produtiva deste; e, a melhoria da infra-estrutura de logística para facilitar a colaboração entre os elos. As conclusões da pesquisa podem contribuir para a organização da cadeia produtiva da soja como matéria-prima do biodiesel, auxiliando-a na definição de futuros cenários agronômicos, políticos, econômicos e ambientais, somadas às informações internas disponíveis e à vontade de colaboração entre os elos para dar andamento a implantação do PROBIODIESEL na região. / The purpose of this study is to identify the uncertainties after the establishment of the biodiesel´s company in a Rio Grande do Sul s region that produce soybean. This research is classified as an exploratory survey. The methodology used Future Sets Prospection and it was finished in the fourth stage (Identification of key-uncertanties), due to the specify information that emphasize the risk perceptions to guide future plans of envolved actors. The corpus was colected by interviews with open and closed questions. The participants were representants of production, improvement and soybeans´s P&D and biodiesel. Visits to Companies and Institutions envolved in the productive chain were done to provide familiarity with the problem. Observations and the review of literature helped to understand the necessity to find out mecanisms of colaboration between agents of Productive chains of soybeans and the biodiesel, in order to have success in the PROBIODIESEL establishment in the region. The uncertanties identified refers to questions such as: the incorporation of appropriated management system to the familiar agriculture; the intensification of genetic improvement of the cultivated soybeans adapted to local condictions, production of biodiesel and the small/medium familiar agriculture, to devolop the monoculture; the program´s consolidation in terms of benefits provide by the Federal Government such as Social Fuel and the adicional Pronaf´s Line, technical and financial support to the program aiming to get in the top in terms of production and realization of goals; organization of productive chains of soybeans in relation to biodiesel and partnership of Productive chains; and the implementation of logistics infra-structure to facilitate the colaboration of links. The results can contribue to the organization of Productive Chains of soybeans as raw material to the biodiesel helping to define future sets of agronomics, politics, economics and environmental, added to internal informations available and the desire of colaboration between links in order to promote the PROBIODIESEL establishment in the region.
|
Page generated in 0.1007 seconds