O objetivo do presente estudo à o de analisar os principais determinantes do salÃrio de reserva e da duraÃÃo do desemprego, utilizando como evidÃncia a base de dados da Pesquisa de PadrÃo de Vida do IBGE (1996-1997). Para tanto, duas metodologias economÃtricas sÃo utilizadas. Na anÃlise de salÃrio de reserva, estima-se uma equaÃÃo de salÃrios, cujo principal determinante utilizado à a duraÃÃo do desemprego. A estimaÃÃo utiliza mÃnimos quadrados em dois estÃgios para atenuar o viÃs de simultaneidade presente. Os resultados mostram que a duraÃÃo do desemprego afeta negativamente o salÃrio de reserva do trabalhador. Esse resultado està de acordo com a evidÃncia empÃrica internacional. Na anÃlise de duraÃÃo, estima-se a funÃÃo risco empÃrica a partir dos modelos de Risco Proporcional e Proporcional de Cox, com e sem heterogeneidade nÃo-observada. Os parÃmetros estimados possuem os sinais usuais, com exceÃÃo da dummy para sexo. O risco de sair do desemprego à monotonicamente crescente inicialmente, e, apÃs a inclusÃo de heterogeneidade nÃo observada, passa a apresentar um perfil nÃo-monotÃnico. Esses resultados oferecem uma perspectiva nova para tentar entender as mudanÃas ocorridas no mercado de trabalho brasileiro durante a dÃcada de 90. / The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of reservation wages and unemployment duration using as empirical evidence the PPV - Pesquisa de PadrÃo de Vida from IBGE (1996-1997). For this purpose, two econometric methodologies are used. For reservation wages, we estimate a traditional wage regression model whose main determinant used was unemployment duration. In order to attenuate simultaneity bias, two-stage regressions are used. The results show that unemployment duration negatively affects the workersâ reservation wages. This corroborates international evidence. Regarding the analysis of duration, we estimate proportional hazards models, with and without unobserved heterogeneity. The estimated parameters have the usual signals, except for the dummy for sex. The risk of leaving unemployment raises initially, and then, after including unobserved heterogeneity, shows a non-monotonic profile. These results offer a new perspective to try to understand the changes that have occurred in the Brazilian labor market during the 90âs.

Os três artigos que compõem esta Tese possuem em comum a discussão da macroeconomia e o mercado de trabalho, para a investigação de problemas específicos. Desta forma, esta Tese busca preencher importantes lacunas presentes na literatura nacional e internacional. O primeiro artigo analisa os ciclos do desemprego brasileiro a partir de dados de fluxo de trabalhadores obtidos a partir da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME-IBGE). Usamos a abordagem proposta por Shimer (2007), que tenta controlar para eventual viés decorrente da agregação temporal nos dados do mercado de trabalho. Os dados brasileiros sugerem que a margem de ingresso para o desemprego (margem de separação) tem grande relevância para explicar os ciclos da taxa de desemprego no Brasil no período de março de 2002 a dezembro de 2010. Tais resultados indicam que o Brasil, relativamente a alguns países desenvolvidos, apresenta um mercado de trabalho com características mais próximas de um contexto com baixa regulamentação, ou seja, que o ingresso (e não a saída) no desemprego seria o principal responsável por sua flutuação. Além disso, a dinâmica da margem de separação, em relação a indicadores de atividade (PIB e Taxa de Desemprego), tem um comportamento claro (anticíclico e pró-cíclico, respectivamente), respondendo com um trimestre de antecedência com relação à taxa de desemprego. O segundo artigo analisa o papel da heterogeneidade no mercado de trabalho ao longo dos ciclos de negócio no Brasil. O comportamento cíclico da mão de obra dá sinais de mudanças em sua composição qualitativa. Tais indícios, encontrados na PME, se basearam no comportamento cíclico relativo de emprego e salário real/hora a partir de diferentes coortes: grau de escolaridade, tempo de trabalho e idade. Usando um arcabouço de busca de emprego com destruição endógena, nos moldes de Mortensen e Pissarides (1994), ilustramos que quanto maior a heterogeneidade na economia menor será a correlação entre salário real e desemprego. Por fim, o último artigo utiliza o modelo de DSGE proposto por Galí et al. (2011) - que faz o uso da taxa de desemprego e, assim, evita a Crítica de Lucas - a fim de (i) identificar quais fricções são importantes para captar as flutuações das séries macroeconômicas no Brasil, em especial da taxa de desemprego; (ii) averiguar se a série de desemprego traz informações úteis ao modelo; e (iii) discutir como choques de produtividade se manifestam sobre a taxa de desemprego. Os resultados sugerem, em relação aos dados da economia brasileira, melhor acurácia do modelo com todas as fricções (exceção às indexações salariais). Além disso, a presença da taxa de desemprego muda a ordem de importância das fricções, dando maior importância às fricções reais. As decomposições de variância realizadas indicam que choques de markup salarial perdem importância à custa, principalmente, dos choques de prêmio de risco. O uso da taxa de desemprego permite que choques de preferência sejam identificados e passem a explicar os ciclos. Por fim, funções de resposta ao impulso bayesianas sugerem que o desemprego é negativamente afetado por choque de produtividade, resultado decorrente de reduções da demanda de trabalho. / The three articles that compose this thesis have in common the discussion of macroeconomics and the labor market, for the investigation of specific problems. Thus, this thesis seeks to fill important gaps in the national and international literature. The first article analyzes the cycles of Brazilian unemployment from workers flow data obtained in Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME-IBGE). We use the approach proposed by Shimer (2007) that attempts to control for possible bias due to temporal aggregation in labor market data. Brazilian data suggest that the margin of entry into unemployment (separation margin) has great relevance to explain the cycles of unemployment rate in Brazil from March 2002 to December 2010. These results indicate that Brazil, relatively to some developed countries, has a labor market with characteristics much closer to a context with low regulation, that is, entering (not leaving) unemployment would be primarily responsible for its fluctuation. Moreover, the dynamics of the separation margin, in relation to activity indicators (GDP and Unemployment Rate), has a clear behavior (anti-cyclical and procyclical, respectively), responding with a quarter in advance regarding the unemployment rate. The second article examines the role of heterogeneity in the labor market over the business cycle in Brazil. The cyclical behavior of the labor-work gives signs of qualitative changes in its composition. Such indications, found in the PME, were based on the cyclical behavior of employment and real wage/hour from different cohorts: level of education, tenure and age. Using a framework of job search with endogenous destruction, along the lines of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), we illustrate that the greater heterogeneity in the economy, the lower the correlation between real wages and unemployment. Finally, the last article uses the DSGE model proposed by Galí et al. (2011) - which makes use of the unemployment rate and thus avoid the Lucas Critique - in order to (i) identify which frictions are important to capture the fluctuations of the series of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil, especially in the unemployment rate; (ii) determine whether the series of unemployment brings useful information to the model, and (iii) discuss how productivity shocks manifest themselves on the unemployment rate. The results suggest, in relation to the data of the Brazilian economy, the better accuracy of the model with all frictions (except for wage indexation). Moreover, the presence of unemployment rate changes the order of importance of frictions, giving greater weight to real frictions. The variance decompositions performed indicate that wage markup shocks become less important at the expense mainly of the risk premium shocks. The use of the unemployment rate allows preference shocks to become identified and to explain the cycles. Finally, impulse response functions Bayesian suggest that unemployment is negatively affected by productivity shock, a result due to reductions in labor demand.

Since its transition to a free and democratic society in 1994 South Africa has increasingly become part of the global community. South African goods and services flow freely across borders to other markets and likewise goods and services from outside South Africa flow into the country. The South African economy is judged according to how it competes in the global economy placing increasing pressure on South African businesses and the economy generally to be competitive. Government needs to create the economic environment in South Africa which allows businesses to be in a position to compete, by introducing appropriate economic and monetary policies. Recent policy decisions have tended to focus on price control and stability and stimulating economic growth. These policies, it is hoped, would lead to sustained economic growth and the creation of employment. One particular area of concern is government’s lack of adequate focus on unemployment in South Africa. The unemployment rate has increased since 1994 and specific labour market policies, aimed at stimulating employment creation, are required. The South African labour market is characterised by a high level of institutional regulation through labour legislation which, while protecting the rights of workers, tends to create barriers to employment creation. The issue is whether South African labour legislation is inflexible and whether that inflexibility is a hindrance to the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment. This study seeks to explain and evaluate the role of South African labour legislation and the effect it has on employment creation and the high rate of unemployment in South Africa. / Prof. S. Chetty

M.Com. (Business Management) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

M.Comm. / The purpose of this paper is to describe poverty reduction, the essentiality of labour, and entrepreneurship as a way of creating opportunities, the need for labour law in the workplace, while referring to some of the constraints it may place on employers, labour practices and finding a win-win solution for all three players within the labour relationship to the benefit of the greater economy as a whole. Tackling unemployment is arguably South Africa's most important priority, while realising that the country will only attract investment in labour-absorptive sectors if it is competitive in terms of labour unit costs. Government has committed it to an employment strategy framework, while at the same time challenging business and labour to participate. There is a need for capable individuals who are prepared to accept the brunt of risk, to assist in job creation and assist in positive growth in the economy. We are part of a capitalistic SOCiety. Entrepreneurship offers the total solution. It places no risk on government or the employee, while having the ability to assist in the creation of jobs and with the alleviation of poverty. Entrepreneurship needs to be positively influenced and encouraged so as to fill the void emanating from high unemployment, and help the economy further. Potential entrepreneurs find themselves lost in a maze of legalities and tax laws, coupled with the unavailability of capital and heavy taxes on any positive returns, creating a barrier to entry for entrepreneurs. Labour is a very real necessity in the need for progress and actual implementation of opportunities. The essence of labour laws is to ensure no exploitation of workers, create fair working conditions and reward for the worker. South Africa has a very turbulent labour history. The characteristics of the labour market are commitment to the social contract; removal of obstacles in the way of international trade and production; reduction in unemployment. There are three players in the labour market, being employers, employees and government, who all have to contribute their shares before successful production can take place.

Magister Commercii - MCom / Since the advent of democracy, one of the most serious economic problems facing the South African economy is the persistently high unemployment. Although employment has been increasing in general since the economic transition, the extent of such increase is not rapid enough to absorb the expanding labour force entrants, thereby causing both the level and rate of unemployment to increase. This is indicated by the fact that, despite the increase of employment number from 9.5 million in 1995 to 15.2 million in 2014, the number of unemployed increased from 2.0 million to 5.2 million during the same period, thereby causing the unemployment rate to rise from 17.6% to 25.4%. In fact, the labour market objective of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) to reduce the unemployment rate to 15% by the end of 2014 is not achieved. The government has been trying to solve the unemployment problem by means of various policies, ranging from the “big” policies like the Reconstruction and Development Program (RDP), Growth, Employment and Redistribution Policy (GEAR), the aforementioned ASGISA, and the recently launched National Development Plan (NDP), to the more specific labour market policies such as the Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP), promotion of small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) to the implementation of the Employment Tax Incentives Bill (also known as the Youth Wage Subsidy) since 1 January 2014. This study first provides a theoretical framework on various models of unemployment, before the main causes of unemployment in South Africa are discussed. A critical evaluation of the pros and cons of various policy options to alleviate unemployment would be looked at. Some of the policy options have already been implemented in South Africa for years and hence the possible success of these policies would be investigated in detail. Few policies have only been recently implemented (e.g. the Employment Tax Incentives Bill), while other possible policy options have not yet been implemented in South Africa (e.g. job-seeking transport subsidy) but have been adopted in other countries. Hence, the feasibility of these options for South Africa would be investigated, by examining the outcome of these policies in the other countries.

The aim of this thesis is to verify the existence of dependence between inflation and unemployment through the Phillips curve in the Czech Republic and its neighboring countries (Poland, Austria, Slovakia and Germany). This observed relationship is complemented by the economic development of both macroeconomic variables in these countries. The first chapter is devoted to the theoretical background of inflation, unemployment and Phillips curves. In the second chapter, the data used to verify the existence of the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment is defined. The third chapter is country-by-country, with the development of inflation and unemployment rates first and then Phillips curves based on available data. The last section is devoted to a summary of the achieved results.

This paper establishes theoretical relations between the level of unemployment and the economic growth rate. In a model with a monopolistically competitive manufacturing sector and a competitive innovation sector, which both pay efficiency wages, we find that the unemployment rate exhibits an unambiguously negative impact on the long-run growth performance, as it reduces the innovative capacity of the economy. Only if efficiency levels are different across sectors, we can also establish a causal relation from the growth rate to the rate of unemployment, since less innovation shifts the burden to induce efficiency towards the manufacturing sector, thus fostering unemployment. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

There is much to be said about the use of social capital in the job search patterns of graduates, however, little is researched on the use of social capital as a job search strategy. Despite the years of research that acknowledges the critical role social capital plays in determining job search outcomes, little to no research has been done to specifically understand the different ways in which graduates utilize their social capital (family, friends and acquaintances) to look for work. Human capital theory posits that education is the greatest determinant of employment in a labour market system that that awards educational credentials with occupational attainment. However, the reality is that a large number of Zambian graduates are jobless despite being educated. This study, therefore seeks to analyse the high levels of graduate unemployment from lternative theories of social capital and the job search. Knowing the different ways social capital expresses itself in graduate job search patterns provides possible solutions and a different perspective to addressing the high levels of graduate unemployment in Zambia. This study adopted a qualitative case study research design and made use of the snow ball sampling approach. Fifteen semistructured interviews were conducted and findings and emerging themes analysed in response to the central question, “how does social capital express itself in graduate job search patterns in Lusaka, Zambia?”. Through extensive thematic analyses, the researcher finds that there are eight ways in which graduates utilize their social capital to look for work and overcome challenges of the job search. This demonstrates that social capital can be a useful and beneficial job search strategy to adopt in a labour market system where educational credentials alone do not guarantee graduates successful job search outcomes.

The Public Employment Service of South Africa (PES-SA) registers unemployed work seekers and placement opportunities to enable the Department of Labour (DoL) to place as many of these work seekers as possible in work. The aim of the present study is to identify challenges in the implementation of PES-SA, and to identify and make recommendations on areas for improvement and strengthening. The study is restricted to two of the six main PES-SA service offerings: (a) Registration Services and (b) Recruitment and Selection Services. The study was partially a process evaluation and partially an impact evaluation. The process evaluation assessed the quality of PES-SA‟s systems, structures, capacity, management and strategic focus. The purpose of the impact evaluation was to understand the challenges and gaps in delivery and implementation, the reasons behind the low matching success, and the extent of uptake by users. The evaluation therefore had a technical data-evaluation component and a component which assessed the reasons behind statistical and other quantitative data patterns. The study was conducted in Mthatha Department of Labour, Eastern Cape. The sample of the study was drawn from workseekers that are in the database and the Researcher drawn 40 respondents and the use of quantitative method was done. A questionnaire was developed and issued out to respondents. The Public Employment Service staff in Mthatha, Department of Labour was also interviewed. All five Employment Service Practitioners and a Career Counsellor were interviewed. A qualitative study was used for these respondents. In the responses of both teams it was deduced that the intention of the service is good but up to this far it has not proven any impact on the reduction of unemployment. Reasons behind the failure of the service were outlined to be the reluctance of the employers to utilise the service and the IT systems that is failing. The staff also mentioned that they were never trained on the service and therefore finds it difficult to render some of the services. Another challenge that was picked up from staff members is that the service is not yet legislated.