In this study, the effects of CBRT monetary policy decisions on the consumer, automobile, housing and commercial loans of the banks during the period from the early of 2004 to the middle of 2011 are examined. In order to perform this study, it is benefited from weekly weighted average loan interest rate data of the banks, which is the data having the highest frequency that could be obtained from the electronic data distribution system of CBRT. Monetary policy instruments of Central Bank may change in the course of time or monetary policy could be executed by more than one instrument. Therefore, as the political interest rate would be insufficient in the calculation of the effect of monetary policy on loan interest rates of the banks, Government Dept Securities&rsquo / premiums are used instead of the political interest rates in this study to make it reflect the policies of central bank more clearly as a whole. Among the Government Dept Securities that have different maturity structure, benchmark bonds that are adapted to the expected political interest rate changes and that react to the unexpected interest rate changes at the high rate (reaction coefficient 0.983) are used. In order to weight the cointegration relation between interest rates, unrestricted error correction model is established and it is determined by Bound Test that there is a long-term relation between each interest rate and interest rate of benchmark bond. After a cointegration relation is determined among the serials, autoregressive distributed lag model is used to determine the level of transitivity and it is determined that monetary policy decisions affect the banking interest rate at 77% level and by 13 weeks delay on average.

With the acceptance of the new Basel II banking regulation (implemented in South Africa in January 2008) the search for improved ways of modeling the most important banking activities has become very topical. Since the notion of Levy-process was introduced, it has emerged as an important tool for modeling economic variables in a Basel II framework. In this study, we investigate the stochastic dynamics of banking items that are driven by such processes. In particular, we discuss bank provisioning for loan losses and deposit withdrawals. The first type of provisioning is related to the earnings that the bank sets aside in order to cover loan defaults. In this case, we apply principles from robustness to a situation where the decision maker is a bank owner and the decision rule determines the optimal provisioning strategy for loan losses. In this regard, we formulate a dynamic banking loan loss model involving a provisioning portfolio consisting of provisions for expected losses and loan loss reserves for unexpected losses. Here, unexpected loan losses and provisioning for expected losses are modeled via a compound Poisson process and an exponential Levy process, respectively. We use historical evidence from OECD (Organization for Economic Corporation and Development) countries to support the fact that the provisions for loan losses-to-total assets ratio is negatively correlated with aggregate asset prices and the private credit-to-GDP ratio. Secondly, we construct models for provisioning for deposit withdrawals. In particular, we build stochastic dynamic models which enable us to analyze the interplay between deposit withdrawals and the provisioning for these withdrawals via Treasuries and reserves. Further insight is gained by considering a numerical problem and a simulation of the trajectory of the stochastic dynamics of the sum of the Treasuries and reserves. Since managing the risk that depositors will exercise their withdrawal option is an important aspect of this thesis, we consider the idea of a hedging provisioning strategy for deposit withdrawals in an incomplete market setting. In this spirit, we discuss an optimal risk management problem for a commercial bank whose main activity is to obtain funds through deposits from the public and use the Treasuries and reserves to cater for the resulting withdrawals. Finally, we provide a brief analysis of some of the issues arising from the dynamic models of the banking items derived. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Computer, Statistical and Mathematical Sciences))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

With the acceptance of the new Basel II banking regulation (implemented in South Africa in January 2008) the search for improved ways of modeling the most important banking activities has become very topical. Since the notion of Levy-process was introduced, it has emerged as an important tool for modeling economic variables in a Basel II framework. In this study, we investigate the stochastic dynamics of banking items that are driven by such processes. In particular, we discuss bank provisioning for loan losses and deposit withdrawals. The first type of provisioning is related to the earnings that the bank sets aside in order to cover loan defaults. In this case, we apply principles from robustness to a situation where the decision maker is a bank owner and the decision rule determines the optimal provisioning strategy for loan losses. In this regard, we formulate a dynamic banking loan loss model involving a provisioning portfolio consisting of provisions for expected losses and loan loss reserves for unexpected losses. Here, unexpected loan losses and provisioning for expected losses are modeled via a compound Poisson process and an exponential Levy process, respectively. We use historical evidence from OECD (Organization for Economic Corporation and Development) countries to support the fact that the provisions for loan losses-to-total assets ratio is negatively correlated with aggregate asset prices and the private credit-to-GDP ratio. Secondly, we construct models for provisioning for deposit withdrawals. In particular, we build stochastic dynamic models which enable us to analyze the interplay between deposit withdrawals and the provisioning for these withdrawals via Treasuries and reserves. Further insight is gained by considering a numerical problem and a simulation of the trajectory of the stochastic dynamics of the sum of the Treasuries and reserves. Since managing the risk that depositors will exercise their withdrawal option is an important aspect of this thesis, we consider the idea of a hedging provisioning strategy for deposit withdrawals in an incomplete market setting. In this spirit, we discuss an optimal risk management problem for a commercial bank whose main activity is to obtain funds through deposits from the public and use the Treasuries and reserves to cater for the resulting withdrawals. Finally, we provide a brief analysis of some of the issues arising from the dynamic models of the banking items derived. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Computer, Statistical and Mathematical Sciences))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Aggressive hospital discharge policies adopted in the 1990s led to an influx of patients recovering from acute illness accessing post-acute home care services. Performance of the post-acute home care program in the Saskatoon Health Region was examined using formative program evaluation methods. Brief surveys of clients and nurse providers captured: care objectives and service outcomes; patient-centeredness; trust in providers; health improvement/decline; emotional/social functioning; functional status; injury avoidance; and overall quality. For clients, perceptions of quality were significantly affected by patient centeredness and experiencing unexpected health complications, which accounted for 83.0% of the variation. For nurse providers, overall quality of care was significantly related to patient centeredness, service outcomes, team communication and injury avoidance. Analysis revealed for clients with complex needs, the service period could be extended from 60 to 97 days which would cover 50.0% of clients. The research examining administrative data predicted the dependent variable Log of Total Care Hours (TCH) to enable analysis using General Linear Modelling. The results showed post-acute home care clients referred from Emergency Departments received approximately 84.2 % more TCH; post-acute home care clients referred from Surgical wards received approximately 42.1% more TCH; and post-acute home care clients referred from Cardiology received approximately 66.3% more TCH than clients referred from the community. Furthermore, single clients received more TCH than married clients. Nursing chart reviews of post-acute home care clients with wound care also predicted the Log of TCH to enable analysis using General Linear Modelling. Post-admission, 11.3% of post-acute home care clients receiving wound care displayed clinical signs and symptoms of emerging infection, while 19.7% displayed clinical signs and symptoms of acquired infection. Post-acute home care clients receiving wound care experiencing injury, trauma or harm while admitted to home care received approximately 53.3% TCH; and post-acute home care clients who acquired an infection after admission received approximately 70.2% TCH. The implications of this research suggest there is room to improve post-acute home care services to address client re-hospitalisation, unexpected health symptoms/complications, and wound care.

Doctor of Public Health / For many years the major cause of infant mortality in NSW has been the result of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). Statistics show the area defined as 'Western Sydney' is no exception, and in 2002, a report prepared by the Epidemiology, Indicators, Evaluation and Research Unit (EIRE) in Western Sydney presented data indicating SIDS rates in the area were higher than the state average. In particular, two Local Government Areas (LGAs) had clusters of SIDS deaths. Previous Australian research identified a higher risk of SIDS and other causes of infant mortality in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. The areas of Western Sydney where SIDS rates were higher than expected were home to Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander and Pacific Island residents. The number of SIDS deaths in Aboriginal infants did not explain the higher than expected rate of SIDS in the areas under investigation. Studies undertaken in New Zealand and the Pacific Islands have identified higher than expected risk of SIDS in Maori and Pacific Island communities in those countries, although this has never been studied in Pacific Island residents living in Australia. The reasons for these communities exhibiting a higher than normal SIDS rate is not completely understood, but can be partially explained by behavioural practices which are known to impact adversely on the risk of SIDS. This study sought to investigate the level of knowledge concerning the prevention of sudden and unexpected death in infants (SUDI) in three key groups of infant caregivers: general practitioners, nurses and parents living or working in the area geographically defined by Sydney West Area Health Service (WSAHS). In addition, the study sought to identify any variation in knowledge of SIDS reduction strategies in the three groups under study, and to investigate factors influencing knowledge and practice in these participants. The study findings were then used as a basis on which to develop strategies and recommendations to enhance the delivery of safe sleeping messages through the health care system. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this cross-sectional study highlights a number of issues around infant care practices and the major influences on new parents living in a multicultural community. Results of the study showed there is a large variation in knowledge around safe sleeping practices (including SIDS reduction strategies) in all the groups studied. Although educational campaigns are conducted regularly, many general practitioners and parents are confused about the key SIDS reduction messages and still place infants in sleeping positions considered unsafe. While nurses and midwives were aware of the SIDS reduction strategies, they still occasionally used infant sleeping positions considered unsafe. General practitioners born overseas in a country where English is not the first language were less likely to be familiar with safe sleeping messages, including SIDS reduction strategies. Families from a Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) background were less likely to have seen SIDS information in their own language than families who spoke English, and as a result were more likely to use traditional methods of infant care, including co-sleeping with siblings and parents and side or tummy sleeping. CALD parents were more likely to rely on herbal remedies and friends and family for assistance, than English speaking parents who accessed health professionals as the first point of call when infants were unwell. The study identified a relatively recent practice, which until reported in this study, has not been documented in the literature. The practice of draping infant prams with blankets originated from the Cancer Council of Australia guidelines which recommend covering a pram with a light muslin wrap to protect infants’ skin from the sun. It appears parents have misinterpreted this message and are covering infant prams with blankets to encourage sleep, even when sun exposure is not an issue. Research suggests that poor air quality around the head of an infant may affect an infant’s arousal response. While no research has been conducted on the air quality around an infants head when covered by a heavy blanket in a pram, it is possible based on research into air quality around infants, that that this practice may increase the risk of sudden and unexpected death in an infant. In conclusion, this study found that multiple changes to the SIDS reduction messages since the initial ‘Reduce the Risks’ Campaign have led to confusion about ways of preventing SIDS in GPs, nurses and parents in Western Sydney. The study makes seven recommendations aimed at improving knowledge of safe sleeping practices in these groups, and optimizing health outcomes for infants using a collaborative approach to service delivery and future initiatives.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:06:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5715.pdf: 2528313 bytes, checksum: 746d913fa84ee6f5f9d8b191ad1d8cce (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-16 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In this paper we propose a new method for the calculation of regulatory capital required for operational risk. This method is based on some important assumptions for calculation of this capital, for instance, expert opinion, dependence between loss variables considering the joint probability associated to two loss events. The copula theory is applied to determine this joint probability. Furthermore, we present two more methods, sum method proposed by Basel II Accord (2004) and non-perfect correlation method proposed by Frachot et al. (2004). Finally, we perform a simulation studies in order to compare all the methods presented in this dissertation. / Neste trabalho propomos um novo método para o cálculo do capital regulatório para o risco operacional. O método proposto é utilizado para calcular o capital regulatório para duas classes de risco e é baseado em alguns pressupostos considerados importantes no cálculo deste capital. Entre esses pressupostos se destacam a opinião de especialistas e a captação de dependência entre as variáveis perdas considerando a probabilidade dos eventos de perdas ocorrerem conjuntamente. Essa probabilidade é captada via cópula. Além disso, apresentamos mais dois métodos, o do somatório, proposto pelo Acordo de Basileia II (2004), e o da correlação não-perfeita, proposto por Frachot et al. (2004). Finalmente, realizamos um estudo de simulação com o objetivo de comparar os capitais regulatórios totais calculados em cada método.

Abstract Autonomic dysfunction in epilepsy is widely recognized. Both partial and generalized epilepsies affect autonomic functions during interictal, ictal and postictal states. Interestingly, there is increasing evidence of interictal autonomic nervous system dysfunction as evidenced by reduced heart rate (HR) variability in patients with epilepsy. Reduced HR variation has also been detected in many other chronic diseases and it has been shown to be associated with unfavourable prognosis with an increased risk of mortality in various heart diseases. Recently, more attention has also been paid to possible association of decreased HR variability with sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). However, the clinical significance of the observed changes in cardiovascular regulation in patients with epilepsy is still poorly outlined and there are no long-term studies about changes in HR variation in relation to epilepsy. This study was designed to evaluate long-term changes in autonomic cardiovascular regulation in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and also to evaluate HR variation during vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) treatment in patients with refractory epilepsy, using 24-hour ambulatory ECG recordings. Special attention was paid to changes in HR variation and to circadian HR fluctuation over time. The results of this study show that autonomic cardiovascular regulation is affected both in patients with well-controlled TLE and in patients with refractory TLE, and that the cardiovascular dysregulation also presents itself with changes in circadian HR variability, with more pronounced alterations observed during the night time. HR variability was also found to decrease progressively with time in patients with chronic refractory TLE with uncontrolled seizures. VNS treatment was not observed to alter HR variation. / Tiivistelmä Epilepsiapotilailla esiintyy autonomisen hermoston toiminnan häiriöitä. Näitä häiriöitä voidaan todeta epilepsiakohtausten aikana, heti kohtausten jälkeen ja kohtausten välillä sekä paikallisalkuisissa että yleistyneissä epilepsioissa. Viimeaikaisissa tutkimuksissa on osoitettu kardiovaskulaarisen säätelyjärjestelmän häiriöiden voivan ilmentyä alentuneena sydämen sykevaihteluna epilepsiakohtausten väliaikoina. Sydänsairauksien yhteydessä sykevaihtelun vähenemisen on osoitettu liittyvän kohonneeseen kuolemanriskiin. Epilepsiapotilailla alentuneen sydämen sykevaihtelun on epäilty liittyvän epilepsiapotilailla ilmenevien odottamattomien ja ilman selkeää syytä tapahtuvien äkkikuolemien (SUDEP) lisääntyneeseen riskiin. Kertyneestä tiedosta huolimatta alentuneen sykevaihtelun kliininen merkitys epilepsiapotilailla on edelleen epäselvä. Pitkäaikaisseurantatutkimuksia sydämen sykevaihtelun muutoksista epilepsiapotilailla ei ole julkaistu. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää ohimolohkoepilepsiaan liittyviä pitkäaikaisia interiktaalisia (kohtausten välillä esiintyviä) kardiovaskulaarisia ilmentymiä. Lisäksi haluttiin tutkia vaikeahoitoisessa epilepsiassa käytetyn hoitomuodon, vagushermostimulaation, mahdollisia vaikutuksia sydämen toimintaan. Erityisesti haluttiin analysoida sykevaihtelun vuorokausirytmiä. Tulokset osoittavat autonomisen hermoston kardiovaskulaarisen säätelyjärjestelmän toiminnan olevan häiriintyneen sekä vaikeahoitoisilla että hyvähoitoisilla ohimolohkoalkuista epilepsiaa sairastavilla potilailla. Sydämen sykevariaatio on alentunut erityisesti yöaikaan. Lisäksi sydämen sykevaihtelu alenee pitkäaikaisseurannassa vaikeahoitoista epilepsiaa sairastavilla potilailla, joilla ilmenee toistuvia epileptisiä kohtauksia. Vagusstimulaatio ei aiheuttanut muutoksia syketaajuuden vaihteluun.

Experiencing and expressing emotions is an essential part of psychological well-being. It is for this reason that most graphic symbol sets used in the field of AAC include an array of symbols depicting emotions. However, to date, very limited research has been done on children’s ability to recognise and use these symbols to express feelings within different cultural contexts. The purpose of the current study was to describe and compare Afrikaans and Sepedi speaking grade R children’s choice of graphic symbols when depicting four basic emotions, i.e. happy; sad; afraid; and angry. After ninety participants (44 Afrikaans and 46 Sepedi speaking) passed a pre-assessment task, they were exposed 24 emotions vignettes. Participants had to indicate the intensity the protagonist in the story would experience. The next step was for the participants to choose a graphic symbol from a 16 matrix overlay which they thought best represented the symbol and intensity. The results indicated a significant difference at a 1% level between the two groups’ selection of expected symbols to represent emotions. Afrikaans speaking participants more often chose expected symbols than Sepedi speaking participants to represent different basic emotions. Sepedi speaking participants made use of a larger variety of symbols to represent the emotions. Participants from both language groups most frequently selected expected symbols to represent happy followed by those for angry and afraid with expected symbols for sad selected least frequently. Except for a significant difference at the 1% level for happy no significant differences were present between the intensities selected by the different language groups for the other three basic emotions. No significant differences between the two gender groups’ choices of expected symbols to represent emotions or between the intensities selected by the different gender groups were observed. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Centre for Augmentative and Alternative Communication (CAAC) / Unrestricted

Sudden unexplained infant death (SUID) is a sudden death of an infant under 1 year of age that cannot be explained after an investigation or an autopsy. SUID is the leading cause of infant deaths in the United States; SUID is considered a sentinel event to the birth hospital. Birth hospitals are held accountable for education, training, and role modeling of infant safe sleep practices (SSP) to reduce infant sleep-related deaths up to 1 year of age. This educational project was designed to answer the project-focused question of whether the implementation of an evidence-based, safe sleep training program for nurses would improve their knowledge of SSP. Bandura's social cognitive theory and the root cause analysis theory were used to guide the project that provided education on SSP and methods for teaching SSP for 48 nurses who work in a postpartum unit in a large hospital in the northeastern United States. A search of the literature provided the content from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development for the education program and served the basis for the 15-item multiple-choice test, which was used for the pretest, posttest design project. The test was administered to the nurse participants who ranged in education from associate degree, baccalaureate degree, to master's degrees. The project goal was to increase nurses' knowledge by training and role modeling infant safe sleep environments and to reduce SUIDs. Results of the pretest and posttest evaluation revealed significant improvement in test scores from a pretest M = 72.9 to a posttest M = 90.0 (p <.05). The implications of this project for social change are that each nurse's knowledge and abilities to teach parents and families about SUID prevention strategies improve, sudden infant deaths may decrease in this hospital setting.

Med bakgrund till det ökade intresset för aktier och dagens ekonomiska läge är det högst aktuellt att undersöka relationen mellan makroekonomiska svängningar och aktiepriserna på den svenska börsen. Det finns flera teorier som försöker förklara hur aktiepriser förändras, en allmän slutsats är att externa faktorer påverkar priset genom oförväntade händelser. Chen, Roll och Ross konstruerade en tidsseriemodell för att studera hur oförväntade makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar aktieavkastningen på New York-börsen. Deras slutsatser landade i att oförväntade förändringar i samtliga variabler har en signifikant relation till aktieprisavkastningen. Med detta i åtanke är syftet med uppsatsen att undersöka om avkastningen på olika branscher på den svenska börsen påverkas av oförväntade månatliga förändringar i inflation (KPI), konjunkturläget (BNP), avkastningskurvan, riskpremien samt växelkursen under tidsperioden 2000-2023. Det genomförs även en jämförande analys mellan de europeiska länderna Sverige, Tyskland, Danmark och Finland. De branschindex som studeras är finans, industri, teknologi, sjukvård och detaljhandel för respektive land. Genom en multipel regressionsmodell har få signifikanta samband påvisats, däremot finner vi ett mönster i negativa respektive positiva relationer mellan oförväntade makroekonomiska händelser och aktieavkastningen för samtliga länder. Sammanfattningsvis finner vi inga tydliga skillnader i vilka branscher som påverkas av respektive riskfaktor, däremot finns en skillnad i antal signifikanta värden mellan länderna. Nationella makroekonomiska händelser påvisar flest signifikanta samband till tyska branschindex, följt av danska och finska. Minst signifikanta samband påvisas för de svenska branschindexen. En förklaring bakom resultatet kan vara att ländernas aktiemarknader är mer eller mindre effektiva och investerare på respektive marknad är olika mottagliga till ny information. Avslutningsvis ser vi det vara rimligt att både branscher och länder påverkas av riskfaktorerna i olika stor utsträckning. Att bygga en aktieportfölj med tillgångar från både olika branscher och länder är därmed betydelsefullt för att sprida sina risker. / Considering the increased interest in the stock market and the current economic situation, it is highly relevant to examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and share prices on the Swedish stock exchange. There are several theories that try to explain how stock prices change, a general conclusion is that external factors affect the price through unexpected events. Chen, Roll, and Ross constructed a time series model in order to study how unexpected macroeconomic factors affect stock returns on the New York Stock Exchange. Their conclusions resulted in that unexpected changes in all variables have a significant relationship to share price returns. With this in mind, the purpose of the essay is to investigate whether the return on various sector indexes on the Swedish stock exchange is affected by unexpected monthly changes in inflation (CPI), economic state (GNP), the term structure, the risk premium and the exchange rate during the time period 2000-2023. A comparative analysis is also carried out between the European countries Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Finland. The examined sector indexes are finance, industry, technology, healthcare and retail for each country. Through a multiple regression model, the result shows that few macroeconomic variables are significant in explaining stock returns. However, we find a pattern in negative as well as positive relationships between unexpected risk factors and stock returns for all countries. We find no significant differences in which sectors are affected by each risk factor but there is a difference in the number of significant values ​​between the countries. National macroeconomic events show the most significant relations to German sector indexes, followed by Danish and Finnish. Least significant relationships are found for the Swedish sector indexes. An explanation behind the result could be that the countries stock markets are more or less efficient and investors in each market are differently receptive to new information. Our conclusion is that we see it as reasonable that both sectors and countries are affected by the risk factors to varying degrees. Building a stock portfolio with assets from both different sectors and countries is therefore important for spreading your risks.