In November 2007 the right of centre Saskatchewan Party defeated Saskatchewan’s social democratic party, which had been in government for seventeen years. Unlike previous defeats, the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) loss in 2007 clearly showed that a new intra-urban political polarization in Saskatoon and Regina had emerged with the outer suburbs abandoning the NDP and the core areas maintaining previous levels of support. This study employs correlation analysis and logistic and linear regression analysis, using survey data from the 2003 and 2007 general election campaigns from Saskatchewan. Urban zones are constructed based on the morphological (urban form) hypothesis in order to create categories for spatial analysis. The different types of urban places are analyzed incorporating survey and Statscan data. Statistically significant differences between the urban zones are discussed in light of possible mechanisms found in the literature in order to explain recent political turns in Saskatchewan.

It is generally accepted that the youth are overall apathetic towards political activities and that such apathy is evidenced in low voter turnout during elections. Such conventional wisdom seems to be based mainly on findings in Western democracies and generates concern as to the future nature and resilience of democracy. When a significantly large proportion of the voting population shows apathetic attitudes towards the processes that enable participation of the public in democracy, it questions the extent to which a democracy can be consolidated. In the past the South African youth played an important role in the process of transformation to democracy and thereby possibly left a legacy of youth involvement. However, in the developing world, which includes South Africa, the youth seems to show the same sort of abstaining behaviour as their Western counterparts towards elections. This is problematic as the South African youth comprises a significantly large proportion of the voting population. This dissertation focuses on South African university youth and their political and voting behaviour. They have been chosen for the focus of this study as they are widely considered to be the future elite and leadership of South Africa. The aim of this study is to determine the extent to which Western scholarly explanations of youth voting behaviour can be applied to South African university youth. Western literature on voting behaviour identifies various models of voting behaviour (which comprise the Sociological Model, Michigan Model, Party Identification Model, Media/Dominant Ideology Model and Rational Choice Model) and age effects on voting behaviour (Cohort Effect, Individual Ageing Effect and Life Cycle Effect). Each of these seeks to explain voting behaviour and in order to determine how applicable they are to South African university youth, an analytical framework was developed in order to analyse and interpret the data gathered by means of questionnaires and focus group discussions. Ultimately it was found that most Western models and age effects are to some extent applicable in explaining the voting behaviour of South African university youth (albeit to a greater or lesser extent). / Dissertation (MA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

This thesis seeks to explore the idea of Indigenous participation in Canada’s federal electoral system and whether such involvement can wield positive change to the Canadian/Indigenous relationship. The analysis presented throughout this thesis highlights the development of a tarnished Canadian/Indigenous relationship as well as the debate surrounding the belonging of Indigenous peoples in relation to the Canadian state and their own Indigenous nations. Additionally, this thesis demonstrates that Indigenous peoples voting in Canada’s electoral system do not hinder Indigenous sovereignty, but may heighten its recognition instead, as well as how participation in Canada’s political system may wield influence by Indigenous peoples over Canada’s elected officials. Although potential for Indigenous influence within Canada’s electoral process exists, further research is needed to delve into the subject matter at a deeper level.

This thesis seeks to explore the idea of Indigenous participation in Canada’s federal electoral system and whether such involvement can wield positive change to the Canadian/Indigenous relationship. The analysis presented throughout this thesis highlights the development of a tarnished Canadian/Indigenous relationship as well as the debate surrounding the belonging of Indigenous peoples in relation to the Canadian state and their own Indigenous nations. Additionally, this thesis demonstrates that Indigenous peoples voting in Canada’s electoral system do not hinder Indigenous sovereignty, but may heighten its recognition instead, as well as how participation in Canada’s political system may wield influence by Indigenous peoples over Canada’s elected officials. Although potential for Indigenous influence within Canada’s electoral process exists, further research is needed to delve into the subject matter at a deeper level.

This thesis explores subjective and objective understandings of civic duty, obligation and good citizenship. Despite the importance of these drivers of behaviour, a lack of empirical understanding about what these drivers are and how they are understood has left a significant gap in our understanding of voting behaviour. My research contributes to the field by examining three central themes; Are duty, obligation and good citizenship understood the same? Are one or more of these traits suitable for cross-national research? Can a new conceptual model of civic duty help further the use of civic duty in studies of voting behaviour? In order to do this, this thesis analyses the following issues: (1) objectively exploring duty, obligation and good citizenship (2) analysing subjective understandings of these concepts (3) demonstrating individual level drivers of these concepts (4) demonstrating the impact of institutions, and cross-national differences have upon duty, obligation and good citizenship (5) showing how these concepts relate to voting behaviour (6) by testing and proving that a new approach to measuring civic duty can provide a model that explains not only long term immutable voting habits, but why individuals may vote out of duty sometimes, and abstain at others and (7) finally providing substantial evidence from what is an exploratory study to help in the formation of future representative research and to demonstrate the importance of taking civic duty seriously in forthcoming voting behaviour research. Using the theoretical and philosophical literature, I argue that despite the empirical literature treating obligation, good citizenship and civic duty as the same concept and driver of voting behaviour, that individuals understand these traits uniquely, and that they are all separate motivators, with duty being contingent on external forces (social capital) and obligation being contingent on personal or inward pressures. I argue that given the limited literature on good citizenship, there is no clear idea of what it means and that good citizenship will be contingent on what an individual deems to be "good". Finally, I argue that old models of civic duty are outdated, and that a new conceptual framework of duty needs to be introduced to accurately demonstrate how individuals understand it, and actually demonstrate its impact upon individual level voting behaviour. Using data from a pilot study, with an embedded survey experiment (N=735) collected in the United Kingdom, the United States, New Zealand, Australia and Ireland, I demonstrate that not only are duty, obligation and good citizenship understood differently, but the drivers of the concepts are significantly different. While obligation shows no relationship to voting behaviour within or across countries, good citizenship appears to be a good driver of second order elections while civic duty appears to drive first order and high saliency elections. Duty appears to be contingent upon external factors, while good citizenship appears to be contingent upon the behaviour of politicians, and citizenship education suggesting a social contract type relationship. Institutional factors appear to indirectly impact voting behaviour with a mediating effect on the strengths of duty and good citizenship. Finally, evidence suggests that previous notions of an "immutable" sense of duty are unfounded, and that an individuals’ sense of duty is contingent on a range of internal and external pressures. The first empirical chapter focuses on individual level understandings of duty, obligation and good citizenship, before the second empirical chapter expands this to look at cross-national differences in the understanding of, and drivers of duty obligation and good citizenship. Finally, the third empirical analyses a new model of civic duty and suggests that its previous use has been limited by ineffective measures. While the evidence presented in this thesis is exploratory and not generalisable or representative of any of the countries sampled, the evidence from the sample strongly suggests that future development of the study of civic duty, and further analysis of how duty, obligation and good citizenship are understood in representative samples are needed to confirm the findings presented in this thesis, and build upon what is a successful pilot study. This research finds its limitations in the number of survey items available to build a complete picture of all drivers of individual understandings of duty, obligation and good citizenship.

This thesis explores the role of the media in voting behaviour in Turkey in terms of the 2010 constitutional referendum. The media is a very important tool for both providing information and entertainment for people in Turkey. Thus, it can be claimed that the media are very powerful and have a large influence on audiences. In this study, I seek to explore the media’s power over citizens’ political choices. In other words, this thesis aims to reveal the affect the media content has on voters. To achieve this goal, I have chosen to analyse the 2010 referendum because of its special characteristics, which differentiate it from other referendums and elections in Turkey. Although there are many studies which examine the media effects on voting in the literature, these generally concentrate on developed democracies. Furthermore, general elections and presidential elections are more common in the field. The number of studies searching for the media’s effect on referendum voting in Turkey is very limited. For this reason, I prioritise referendums and the media systems to provide a better understanding of the Turkish case, as a developing democratic country. In addition to this, media content and public opinion constitute the main data for the methodological part of the study. In order to identify the influence of the media in the 2010 referendum, I employ a three-step method including firstly, an analysis of the public opinion survey data to understand voter preferences; secondly, media content analysis to see the media coverage on the referendum issue and the salience of the referendum in the media and; as the third and final step of the analysis, I link the public opinion data and the media content. My contribution to the field is the analysis of the media effects on referendum voting with a systematic and an extensive methodological approach, which is supported by the analysis of the media system in Turkey, as an example of developing country. I expect to contribute a comprehensive analysis of the referendum voting in respect of the media nested with the voter preferences to the literature on politics in Turkey.

This thesis identifies and examines factors that shape voters' choice in Maxixe district in order to understand how voters decide in general in Mozambique. It is a case study of Maxixe district, one of the fourteen districts of Inhambane Province in southern Mozambique, which is historically a stronghold for the ruling Frelimo party. It is an interesting region for study because it is an economic hub and a cosmopolitan town, with a multi-ethnic population comprising three ethnolinguistic groups, yet at times it has been assumed to be a homogeneous region. As such, one cannot rush to conclude that ethnicity plays a major role in politics and voting behaviour. Yet no studies on voting behaviour have been conducted in this region. The study is based on four theoretical frameworks commonly used in election studies, namely the sociological, socio-psychological, rational choice and the cognitive awareness approaches. Methodologically, it prioritises the social constructivism paradigm, case study research design and qualitative research approach. Findings confirm that ethnicity does not determine party choice or voting behaviour in Maxixe. Age forms an important cleavage among voters as the elderly always vote for Frelimo while younger voters are more independent. Party identification influences voting choice to some extent, but mainly for strategic purposes. While the economy determines voting behaviour to some extent, voters do not use their dissatisfaction to punish the incumbent ruling party and political sophistication does not influence voting. / Thesis (DPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2017. / Political Sciences / DPhil / Unrestricted

<p>The purpose of the thesis is to identify relationships between economic factors and the probability to vote on populist parties. The results are in turn based on the populist parties’ outcome in the 2006 Swedish election to parliament. Parties below the 4 percent margin, prior to the election, which is the percentage point required to enter the parliament, are defined as populist parties. Furthermore, based on theoretical and previous empirical research, seven economic variables are chosen; disposable income, income distribution, municipal tax rate, unemployment and higher education. In addition to these five, are the number of crime incidents reported, and the share of people born outside of the European Union also included. Moreover, the study is conducted at a regional, or more explicitly, at a municipal level, implying that 290 observations are used for each variable, in a total of five regressions. These are performed to test the diversity of populist parties.</p><p>The findings confirm that there are obvious relationships between the chosen variables and the probability of voting on populist parties, as the majority of the regressions explain 25 to 35 percent of the variation in the voting decision. These figures seem consistent, since ideological and factual issues are more important to populist party sympathizers.</p><p>Nevertheless, the results show that when it comes to the economic variables - unemployment, education, disposable income and consequently the municipal tax rate are the ones which concerns people the most when voting on populist parties. Additionally, as the share of people born outside of the European Union increases, the probability of voting in favor of Sverigedemokraterna also increases.</p><p>Finally, the growth of populist parties or of Sverigedemokraterna in particular, forces the conventional parties to adopt similar political standpoints in order to gain votes. Implying that if the present economic and political situation persists, populist parties’, especially Sverigedemokraterna’s policies will thrive in Swedish politics.</p> / <p>Avsikten med denna studie är att identifiera samband mellan ekonomiska faktorer och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier. Genomförandet är i sin tur baserat på 2006 års riksdagsvalresultat. Partier som innan valet befann sig under 4 procentsmarginalen definieras som populistiska partier. Grundat i tidigare forskning och teori, har sju ekonomiska variabler valts; disponibel inkomst, inkomstfördelning, kommunskatt, arbetslöshet och högre utbildning. Förutom dessa fem, är även antalet anmälda brott och andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen inkluderade. Vidare utförs studien på regional, närmare bestämt kommunalnivå, där 290 observationer används för varje variabel, i totalt fem regressioner. Detta med syfte att testa populistpartiers mångfald.</p><p>De empiriska resultaten bekräftar att det finns uppenbara samband mellan de valda variablerna och sannolikheten att rösta på populistpartier, då en majoritet av regressionerna förklarar 25 till 35 procent av variationen i röstningsavgörandet. Dessa siffror verkar stämma överens med verkligheten, eftersom ideologi och sakfrågor är viktigare för populistpartianhängare.</p><p>Gällande de ekonomiska variablerna är det arbetslösheten, utbildningsnivån, disponibla inkomsten och kommunalskatten som påverkar människor mest när de röstar på populistpartier. Det visar sig även att när andelen människor födda utanför den Europiska Unionen ökar, ökar även sannolikheten att man röstar på Sverigedemokraterna.</p><p>Till sist, tillväxten av populistpartier, speciellt av Sverigedemokraterna, har på senare tid tilltagit, vilket leder till att de konventionella partierna måste anamma likartade politiska ståndpunkter för att kunna få fler röster. Innebärande att om den rådande ekonomiska och politiska situationen består, kommer populistpartiers och i synnerhet Sverigedemokraternas riktlinjer att i framtiden få ett mycket större utrymme i den svenska politiken.</p>

This paper proposes a method to study the relationship between voters' attitudes towards immigration and the educational attainment of immigrants and their children, and applies it to Austrian data. We measure attitudes towards immigration using data on political parties' positions regarding immigration and the share of votes that each party received at the regional level. We then study the educational attainment and intergenerational educational mobility of immigrants who grew up in the regions whose political environment we observe. Preliminary results for Austria suggest that, surprisingly, better attitudes towards migration are associated with lower educational attainment for immigrants. However, immigrants are more likely than their native peers to obtain more education than their parents. Here, the returns to more positive attitudes towards immigration play a large role in explaining the mobility gap across migration background. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Exploring elections features from a geographical perspective is the focus of this study. Its primary objective is to develop a scientific approach based on geoinformation technology (GIT) that promotes deeper understanding how geographical settings affect the spatial and temporal variations of voting behaviour and election outcomes. For this purpose, the five parliamentary elections (1991-2005) following the political turnaround in 1990 in the South East European reform country Albania have been selected as a case study. Elections, like other social phenomena that do not develop uniformly over a territory, inherit a spatial dimension. Despite of fact that elections have been researched by various scientific disciplines ranging from political science to geography, studies that incorporate their spatial dimension are still limited in number and approaches. Consequently, the methodologies needed to generate an integrated knowledge on many facets that constitute election features are lacking. This study addresses characteristics and interactions of the essential elements involved in an election process. Thus, the baseline of the approach presented here is the exploration of relations between three entities: electorate (political and sociodemographic features), election process (electoral system and code) and place (environment where voters reside). To express this interaction the concept of electoral pattern is introduced. Electoral patterns are defined by the study as the final view of election results, chiefly in tabular and/or map form, generated by the complex interaction of social, economic, juridical, and spatial features of the electorate, which has occurred at a specific time and in a particular geographical location. GIT methods of geoanalysis and geovisualization are used to investigate the characteristics of electoral patterns in their spatial and temporal distribution. Aggregate-level data modelled in map form were used to analyse and visualize the spatial distribution of election patterns components and relations. The spatial dimension of the study is addressed in the following three main relations: One, the relation between place and electorate and its expression through the social, demographic and economic features of the electorate resulting in the profile of the electorate’s context; second, the electorate-election interaction which forms the baseline to explore the perspective of local contextual effects in voting behaviour and election results; third, the relation between geographical location and election outcomes reflecting the implication of determining constituency boundaries on election results. To address the above relations, three types of variables: geo, independent and dependent, have been elaborated and two models have been created. The Data Model, developed in a GIS environment, facilitates structuring of election data in order to perform spatial analysis. The peculiarity of electoral patterns – a multidimensional array that contains information on three variables, stored in data layers of dissimilar spatial units of reference and scales of value measurement – prohibit spatial analysis based on the original source data. To perform a joint spatial analysis it is therefore mandatory to restructure the spatial units of reference while preserving their semantic content. In this operation, all relevant electoral as well as socio-demographic data referenced to different administrative spatial entities are re-referenced to uniform grid cells as virtual spatial units of reference. Depending on the scale of data acquisition and map presentation, a cell width of 0.5 km has been determined. The resulting fine grid forms the basis of subsequent data analyses and correlations. Conversion of the original vector data layers into target raster layers allows for unification of spatial units, at the same time retaining the existing level of detail of the data (variables, uniform distribution over space). This in turn facilitates the integration of the variables studied and the performance of GIS-based spatial analysis. In addition, conversion to raster format makes it possible to assign new values to the original data, which are based on a common scale eliminating existing differences in scale of measurement. Raster format operations of the type described are well-established data analysis techniques in GIT, yet they have rarely been employed to process and analyse electoral data. The Geovisualization Model, developed in a cartographic environment, complements the Data Model. As an analog graphic model it facilitates efficient communication and exploration of geographical information through cartographic visualization. Based on this model, 52 choropleth maps have been generated. They represent the outcome of the GIS-based electoral data analysis. The analog map form allows for in-depth visual analysis and interpretation of the distribution and correlation of the electoral data studied. For researchers, decision makers and a wider public the maps provide easy-to-access information on and promote easy-to-understand insight into the spatial dimension, regional variation and resulting structures of the electoral patterns defined. / Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie ist die Erforschung der aus politischen Wahlen resultierenden Raumstrukturen mit Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung. Auf der Basis eines gemeinsamen räumlichen Bezuges wird es durch die Verknüpfung der Wahlergebnisse mit ausgewählten wirtschaftlichen, demographischen und sozialen Parametern möglich, die räumliche Verteilung, Kernräume (Hochburgen) und räumlich-strukturelle Verknüpfungen der Wahlergebnisse politischer Parteien zu untersuchen. Die Resultate tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis der Ergebnisse politischer Wahlen und deren räumliche Dimensionen auf nationaler bis lokaler Ebene bei. Die Studie wird am Beispiel der fünf Parlamentswahlen (1991-2005) des südosteuropäischen Reformstaates Albanien durchgeführt, die seit der politischen Wende 1990 stattgefunden haben. Ausgangspunkt der Untersuchung ist die Tatsache, dass Wahlen, wie zahllose andere gesellschaftliche Phänomene auch, eine räumliche Dimension besitzen. Diese kommt in der territorialen Organisation politischer Wahlen in Wahlkreisen explizit zum Ausdruck. In der parlamentarischen Vertretung der politischen Parteien spiegelt sich dies allerdings nur indirekt wider. Zwar waren die parteipolitischen Aspekte politischer Wahlen als auch die parlamentarische Repräsentation sowie die soziodemographischen Strukturen der Wahlbevölkerung Gegenstand einer Vielzahl von Studien aus Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften. Dies auch gilt für die Geographie. Die erwähnte räumliche Dimension politischer Wahlen wurde bislang aber seltener in das Zentrum von Untersuchungen gestellt. Es mangelt insofern auch an spezifischen Methodologien, die eine integrierte Untersuchung aller relevanten Wahlparameter ermöglichen und eine umfassende Bewertung alle Aspekte des Wahlwahlverhaltens einer Wahlbevölkerung bei politischen Wahlen unterstützen. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht strukturelle wie räumliche Merkmale und Zusammenhänge der wesentlichen Faktoren, die bei politischen Wahlen relevant sind. Ausgangspunkt ist die Untersuchung so genannter Wahlmuster, die durch das Zusammenwirken folgender Faktoren entstehen: Wahlprozess (Wahlsystem, Wahlcode), politische und soziodemographische Kenndaten der Wahlbevölkerung, räumliche Ausbreitung und regionale Struktur der Wahlbezirke sowie die räumliche Verteilung und Strukturierung der Wahlbevölkerung. Als Wahlmuster wird die endgültige Repräsentation von Wahlergebnissen, i.d.R. in Tabellen- und Kartenform, betrachtet. Wahlmuster entstehen durch komplexe Interaktion der sozialen, wirtschaftlichen, juristischen und räumlichen Merkmale der Wahlbevölkerung zu einer bestimmten Zeit (Wahltag) in einem bestimmten Raum (Wahlgebiet). Für die Untersuchung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dimension der Wahlmuster werden Methoden und Techniken der Geoinformationsverarbeitung eingesetzt. Die räumliche Dimension wird dabei in drei Merkmalsgruppen untersucht: Erstens, die Beziehungen zwischen Raum (Standort) und Wahlbevölkerung, wie sie sich in den demographischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Kennwerten der Wahlbevölkerung manifestieren. Zweitens, die Interaktion zwischen Walbevölkerung und Wahl, die die Grundlage bildet, um regionale Kontexteffekte bei Wahlverhalten und Wahlergebnissen zu untersuchen. Drittens, die Verknüpfung von Wahlergebnissen und deren räumlichen Bezügen, wie sie sich in der stetigen Veränderung der Wahlkreisgrenzen niederschlägt. Um die genannten Merkmalsgruppen zu untersuchen, werden drei Variablengruppen gebildet: räumliche, unabhängige, abhängige Variablen. Ihre raumzeitlichen Interaktionen werden mittels zweier raumbezogener Modelle untersucht. Das graphikfreie Datenmodell wird in einem Geoinformationssystem erstellt und erlaubt die Strukturierung der Wahldaten. Dies bildet eine Voraussetzung für die nachfolgende räumliche Analyse. Das besondere Kennzeichen der Wahlmuster – eine mehrdimensionale Matrix der Variableninformation, die in unterschiedlichen, nicht aggregierbaren administrativen Raumbezugseinheiten vorliegt – behindert die räumliche Analyse der Originaldaten. Um dennoch räumliche Analysen durchzuführen, ist es erforderlich, den Raumbezug zu verändern bei gleichzeitiger Beibehaltung der thematischen Merkmale. Hierbei werden alle Wahldaten sowie die relevanten soziodemographischen Daten auf eine gemeinsame Raumbezugseinheit bezogen. Statt unterschiedlich administrativ abgegrenzter Raumeinheiten werden regelmäßige Rasterzellen gleicher Maschenweite als Raumbezugseinheiten definiert und den bisherigen, separaten Raummustern der Variablen überlagert. Auf diese Weise wird die räumliche Gleichverteilung aller Variablen in eine gemeinsame räumliche Bezugsbasis überführt, ohne dass die semantischen Merkmale verändert werden. Entsprechend dem Erfassungs- und Präsentationsmaßstab wurde eine Maschenweite von 0,5 km gewählt. Der hieraus resultierende feingranulare Raumgitter bildet die gemeinsame Basis für die nunmehr möglich integrierte räumliche Analyse aller Merkmalsgruppen. Die hier beschriebene rasterbasierte Raumanalyse stellt eine eingeführte Methode der GIS-basierten Geoinformationsverarbeitung dar. Sie wurde bislang jedoch selten zur Verarbeitung und Analyse von Wahldaten eingesetzt. Das mit dem Datenmodell korrespondierende graphikbezogene Visualisierungsmodell wird in einer Kartenkonstruktionsumgebung erstellt und erlaubt die fachgerechte kartographische Veranschaulichung ausgewählter Analyseergebnisse des Datenmodells. Daten- und Kartenmodell sind durch einen Datenfilter verknüpft, der die erforderliche Datenkonversion ermöglicht. Auf Basis des Visualisierungsmodells wurden zweiundfünfzig Kartenmodelle des Kartogramm- bzw. Kartodiagrammtyps erzeugt. Sie ermöglichen die vertiefte visuelle Exploration, Analyse und Interpretation der räumlichen Verteilung und Korrelation der untersuchten Wahldaten. Komplementär zum graphikfreien Datenmodell eröffnet das Visualisierungsmodell Fachwissenschaftlern, politischen Entscheidungsträgern und - in begrenztem Umfang – einer interessierten Öffentlichkeit einen intuitiven Erkenntniszugang zur den räumlichen Dimensionen, der regionalen Variation der Wahlergebnisse und den resultierenden raumgebundenen Wahlmustern.