Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa AgropecuÃria / Esta DissertaÃÃo de Mestrado trata da anÃlise e comparaÃÃo de 7 (sete) mÃtodos numÃricos para avaliaÃÃo da eficiÃncia na determinaÃÃo dos parÃmetros para a distribuiÃÃo de Weibull, atravÃs de dados de velocidade de vento coletados nas cidades de Paracuru-Ce e Camocim-Ce, no perÃodo compreendido entre agosto de 2004 a abril de 2006, obtidos junto à Secretaria de Infraestrutura do Cearà â SEINFRA. Utilizaram-se as metodologias de anÃlise de variÃncia, A raiz quadrada dos erros quadrÃticos mÃdios, do teste do qui-quadrado e da anÃlise da potÃncia, para comparaÃÃo dos mÃtodos propostos. Este trabalho visou à determinaÃÃo de qual mÃtodo fora o mais eficiente na determinaÃÃo dos parÃmetros da curva de distribuiÃÃo de Weibull para os dados disponÃveis, objetivando se estabelecer critÃrios para melhor aproveitamento do potencial eÃlico do estado do CearÃ, que tem ocupado posiÃÃo de destaque nacional na utilizaÃÃo de fontes renovÃveis para geraÃÃo de energia elÃtrica. / This dissertation deals with the analysis and comparison of 7 (seven) numerical methods for the assessment of effectiveness in determining the parameters for the Weibull distribution, using wind speed data collected in Camocim and Paracuru cities, in the period from August 2004 to April 2006, obtained by the Department of Infrastructure of the Cearà state. Using the method of analysis of variance, RMSE test and the chi-square and analysis of power for test to compare the proposed methods, this study aims to determine which method was most effective in determining the shape parameters of Weibull distribution for the available data, aiming to establish criteria to a better utilization of wind power in the of Cearà state, which is in national prominence in the use of renewable sources for electricity generation.

Muitos equipamentos utilizados para quantificar substâncias, como toxinas em alimentos, freqüentemente apresentam deficiências para quantificar quantidades baixas. Em tais casos, geralmente indicam a ausência da substância quando esta existe, mas está abaixo de um valor pequeno \'ksi\' predeterminado, produzindo valores iguais a zero não necessariamente verdadeiros. Em outros casos, detectam a presença da substância, mas são incapazes de quantificá-la quando a quantidade da substância está entre \'ksai\' e um valor limiar \'tau\', conhecidos. Por outro lado, quantidades acima desse valor limiar são quantificadas de forma contínua, dando origem a uma variável aleatória contínua X cujo domínio pode ser escrito como a união dos intervalos, [ómicron, \"ksai\'), [\"ksai\', \'tau\' ] e (\'tau\', ?), sendo comum o excesso de valores iguais a zero. Neste trabalho, são propostos modelos que possibilitam discriminar a probabilidade de zeros verdadeiros, como o modelo de mistura com dois componentes, sendo um degenerado em zero e outro com distribuição contínua, sendo aqui consideradas as distribuições: exponencial, de Weibull e gama. Em seguida, para cada modelo, foram observadas suas características, propostos procedimentos para estimação de seus parâmetros e avaliados seus potenciais de ajuste por meio de métodos de simulação. Finalmente, a metodologia desenvolvida foi ilustrada por meio da modelagem de medidas de contaminação com aflatoxina B1, observadas em grãos de milho, de três subamostras de um lote de milho, analisados no Laboratório de Micotoxinas do Departamento de Agroindústria, Alimentos e Nutrição da ESALQ/USP. Como conclusões, na maioria dos casos, as simulações indicaram eficiência dos métodos propostos para as estimações dos parâmetros dos modelos, principalmente para a estimativa do parâmetro \'delta\' e do valor esperado, \'Epsilon\' (Y). A modelagem das medidas de aflatoxina, por sua vez, mostrou que os modelos propostos são adequados aos dados reais, sendo que o modelo de mistura com distribuição de Weibull, entretanto, ajustou-se melhor aos dados. / Much equipment used to quantify substances, such as toxins in foods, is unable to measure low amounts. In cases where the substance exists, but in an amount below a small fixed value \'ksi\' , the equipment usually indicates that the substance is not present, producing values equal to zero. In cases where the quantity is between \'\'ksi\' and a known threshold value \'tau\', it detects the presence of the substance but is unable to measure the amount. When the substance exists in amounts above the threshold value ?, it is measure continuously, giving rise to a continuous random variable X whose domain can be written as the union of intervals, [ómicron, \"ksai\'), [\"ksai\', \'tau\' ] and (\'tau\', ?), This random variable commonly has an excess of zero values. In this work we propose models that can detect the probability of true zero, such as the mixture model with two components, one being degenerate at zero and the other with continuous distribution, where we considered the distributions: exponential, Weibull and gamma. Then, for each model, its characteristics were observed, procedures for estimating its parameters were proposed and its potential for adjustment by simulation methods was evaluated. Finally, the methodology was illustrated by modeling measures of contamination with aflatoxin B1, detected in grains of corn from three sub-samples of a batch of corn analyzed at the laboratory of of Mycotoxins, Department of Agribusiness, Food and Nutrition ESALQ/USP. In conclusion, in the majority of cases the simulations indicated that the proposed methods are efficient in estimating the parameters of the models, in particular for estimating the parameter ? and the expected value, E(Y). The modeling of measures of aflatoxin, in turn, showed that the proposed models are appropriate for the actual data, however the mixture model with a Weibull distribution fits the data best.

A resistência à ruptura de materiais frágeis como o concreto de granulometria fina é fortemente dependente de sua heterogeneidade, do tamanho da amostra e da heterogeneidade das tensões. A partir de uma abordagem probabilista, fundamentada no modelo de Weibull, este trabalho trata da influência de tais efeitos sobre a resistência à tração de painéis compósitos formados por concreto de granulometria fina e telas soldadas. Desde que as armaduras se mantenham em regime elástico, mostra-se que o modelo de Weibull de dois parâmetros pode ser empregado com sucesso na previsão da ruptura dos painéis compósitos em estudo. Os parâmetros foram então identificados com medidas de ensaios de flexão em três e em quatro pontos de barras de concreto de granulometria fina de dois tamanhos diferentes. A utilização do modelo de Weibull confirmou, por outro lado, a validade da teoria de misturas como ferramenta para estimar as resistências de rupturas locais correspondentes a diferentes níveis de formação de fissuras / The rupture strength of brittle materials such as the microconcrete is strongly dependent on the microstructural heterogeneity, the sample size and the stress heterogeneity. Using a probabilistic approach, based on the Weibull distribution, this work deals with the influence of such effects on the tensile strength of composite panels formed by microconcrete and welded wire grids. Provide the reinforcements behaves in elastic regime, it is shown that the model of Weibull of two parameters can be used with success to predict the failure of the composite panels studied. The parameters were then identified from measurements of flexural tests in three and in four points of two different sizes of microconcrete samples. The feasibility of the Weibull model validates, as well, the rule of mixture as a satisfactory tool to estimate local failure strengths of related to different levels of cracking

The supply of electricity is important in modern society, so the outages of the electric grid should be few and short, especially for the transmission grid. A summary of the history of the Swedish electrical system is presented. The objective is to be able to plan the maintenance better by following the condition of the equipment. The risk matrix can be used to choose which component to be maintained. The risk matrix is improved by adding a dimension, the uncertainty of the probability. The risk can be reduced along any dimension: better measurements, preventive maintenance or more redundancy. The number of dimensions can be reduced to two by following iso-risk lines calculated for the beta distribution. This thesis lists twenty surveys about circuit breakers and disconnectors, with statistics about the failures and the lifetime. It also presents about forty condition-measuring methods for circuit breakers and disconnectors, mostly applicable to the electric contacts and the mechanical parts. A method for scheduling thermography based on analysis of variance of the current is tried. Its aim is to reduce the uncertainty of thermography and it is able to explain two thirds of the variation using the time of the day, the day of the week and the week number as explanatory variables. However, the main problem remains as the current is in general too low. A system with IR sensors has been installed at the nine contacts of six disconnectors with the purpose of avoiding outages for maintenance if the contacts are in a good condition. The measured temperatures are sent by radio and regressed against the square of the current, the best exponent found. The coefficient of determination $R^2$ is high, greater than 0.9. The higher the regression coefficient is, the more heat is produced at the contact. So this ranks the different contacts. Finally a framework for lifetime modelling and condition measuring is presented. Lifetime modelling consists in associating a distribution of time to failure with each subpopulation. Condition measuring means measuring a parameter and estimating its value in the future. If it exceeds a threshold, maintenance should be carried out. The effect of maintenance of the contacts is shown for four disconnectors. An extension of the risk matrix with uncertainty, a survey of statistics and condition monitoring methods, a system with IR sensors at contacts, a thermography scheduling method and a framework for lifetime modelling and condition measuring are presented. They can improve the planning of outages for maintenance. Finally a framework for lifetime modelling and condition measuring is presented. Lifetime modelling consists in associating a distribution of time to failure with each subpopulation. Condition measuring means measuring a parameter and estimating its value in the future. If it exceeds a threshold, maintenance should be carried out. The effect of maintenance of the contacts is shown for four disconnectors. An extension of the risk matrix with uncertainty, a survey of statistics and condition monitoring methods, a system with IR sensors at contacts, a thermography scheduling method and a framework for lifetime modelling and condition measuring are presented. They can improve the planning of outages for maintenance. / Elförsörjningen är viktig i det moderna samhället, så avbrotten bör vara få och korta, särskilt i stamnätet. En kortfattad historik över det svenska elsystemet presenteras. Målet är att kunna planera avbrotten för underhåll bättre genom att veta mera om apparaternas skick. Det är svårt att planera avbrott för underhåll och utbyggnad. Riskmatrisen är verktyg för att välja vad som ska underhållas och den kan förbättras genom att lägga till en dimension, sannolikhetens osäkerhet. Risken kan minskas längs med varje dimension: bättre mätningar, förebyggande underhåll och mer redundans. Antalet dimensioner kan igen bli två genom att följa linjer med samma risk, som är beräknade för betafördelningen. Denna avhandling tar upp tjugo studier av fel i brytare och frånskiljare med data om felorsak och livslängd. Den har också en översikt av ett fyrtiotal olika metoder för tillståndsmätningar för brytare och frånskiljare, som huvudsakligen rör de elektriska kontakterna och de mekaniska delarna. Ett system med IR sensorer har installerats på de nio kontakterna på sex frånskiljare. Målet är att minska antalet avbrott för underhåll genom att skatta skicket när frånskiljarna är i drift. De uppmätta temperaturerna tas emot genom radio och behandlas genom regression mot kvadraten av strömmen, då den bästa exponenten för strömmen visade sig vara 2,0. Förklaringsfaktorn $R^2$ är hög, över 0,9. För varje kontakt ger det en regressionskoefficient. Ju högre koefficienten är, desto mer värme utvecklas det i kontakten, vilket kan leda till skador på materialet. Koefficienterna ger en rangordning av frånskiljarna. Systemet kan också användas för att minska eller öka den tillåtna strömmen baserat på skicket. Slutligen förklaras ett ramverk för livslängdsmodellering och tillståndsmätning. Livslängdsmodellering innebär att koppla en fördelning för tiden till fel med varje delpopulation. Med tillståndsmätning avses att mäta en parameter och skatta dess värde i framtiden. Om den överskrider en tröskel, måste apparaten underhållas. Effekten av underhåll visas för fyra frånskiljare. En utveckling av riskmatrisen med osäkerheten, en sammanställning av statistik och metoder för tillståndsövervakning, ett system med IR-sensor vid kontakerna, en metod för termografiplanering och ett ramverk för livslängdsmodellering och tillståndsmätningar presenteras. De kan förbättra avbrottsplaneringen. / El suministro de energía eléctrica es importante en la sociedad moderna. Por eso los cortes eléctricos deben ser poco frecuentes y de poca duración, sobre todo en la red de transmisión. Esta tesis resume la historia del sistema eléctrico sueco. El objetivo es planificar los cortes mejor siguiendo la condición de los aparatos. La matriz de riesgo se utiliza muchas veces para escoger en qué aparatos debería realizarse mantenimiento. Esta matriz se puede mejorar añadiendo una dimensión: la incertidumbre de la probabilidad. El riesgo puede ser disminuido siguiendo cada una de las tres dimensiones: mejores mediciones, mantenimiento preventivo y mayor redundancia. El número de dimensiones puede reducirse siguiendo líneas del mismo riesgo calculadas para la distribución beta. Esta tesis presenta veinte estudios de fallos en interruptores y seccionadores con datos sobre la causa y el tiempo hasta la avería. Contiene también una visión general de cuarenta métodos para medir la condición de seccionadores e interruptores, aplicables en su mayoría a los contactos eléctricos y los componentes mecánicos. Se ha instalado un sistema con sensores infrarrojos en los seis contactos de nueve seccionadores. El objetivo es disminuir los cortes de servicio para mantenimiento, estimando la condición con el seccionador en servicio. Las temperaturas son transmitidas por radio y se hace una regresión con el cuadrado de la corriente, ya que el mejor exponente de la corriente resultó ser 2,0. $R^2$ alcanza un valor de 0,9 indicando un buen ajuste de los datos por parte del modelo. Existe un coeficiente de regresión para cada contacto y este sirve para ordenar los contactos según la necesidad de mantenimiento, ya que cuanto mayor sea el coeficiente más calor se produce en el contacto. Finalmente se explica que el modelado de tiempo hasta la avería consiste en asignar una distribución estadística a cada equipo. La monitorización del estado consiste en medir y estimar un parámetro y luego predecir su valor en el futuro. Si va a sobrepasar un cierto límite, el equipo necesitará de mantenimiento. Se presenta el efecto de mantenimiento de cuatro seccionadores. Un desarrollo de la matriz de riesgo, un conjunto de estadísticas y métodos de monitoreo de condición, un sistema de sensores IR situados cerca de los contactos, en método de planificación de termografía y un concepto para explicar la modelización de tiempo hasta la avería y de la monitorización de la condición han sido presentados y hace posible una mejor planificación de los cortes de servicio. / <p>QC 20170928</p>

Neste trabalho propomos a distribuição Weibull-Binomial-Negativa (WBN) considerando uma estrutura de ativação latente para explicar a ocorrência do evento de interesse, em que o número de causas competitivas é modelado pela distribuição Binomial Negativa, e os tempos não observados devido às causas seguem a distribuição Weibull. Em geral, as causas competitivas podem ter diferentes mecanismos de ativação, sendo assim os casos de primeira ativação, última ativação e ativação aleatória foram considerados no estudo. Desse modo o modelo proposto inclui uma ampla distribuição, tais como Weibull-Geométrico (WG) e Exponencial-Poisson Complementar (EPC), introduzidas por Barreto-Souza et al. (2011) e G. et al. (2011), respectivamente. Baseando-nos na mesma estrutura, consideramos o modelo de regressão locação-escala baseado na distribuição proposta (WBN) e o modelo para dados de sobrevivência com fração de cura. Os principais objetivos deste trabalho é estudar as propriedades matemáticas dos modelos propostos e desenvolver procedimentos de inferências desde uma perspectiva clássica e Bayesiana. Além disso, as medidas de diagnóstico Bayesiana baseadas na \'psi\'-divergência (Peng & Dey, 1995; Weiss, 1996), que inclui como caso particular a medida de divergência Kullback-Leibler (K-L), foram consideradas para detectar observações influentes / In this work we propose the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) considering a latent activation structure to explain the occurrence of an event of interest, where the number of competing causes are modeled by the Negative Binomial distribution and the no observed time due to the causes following the Weibull distribution. In general, the competitive causes may have different activation mechanisms, cases of first, last and random activation were considered in the study. Thus, the proposed model includes a wide distribution such as Weibull-Geometric distribution (WG) and Exponential-Poisson complementary (EPC) introduced by (Barreto-Souza et al., 2011) and (G. et al., 2011) respectively. Based on the same structure, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the proposed distribution (WNB) and the model for survival data with cure fraction. The main objectives of this work is to study the mathematical properties of the proposed models and develop procedures inferences from a classical and Bayesian perspective. Moreover, the Bayesian diagnostic measures based on the \'psi\'-divergence (Peng & Dey, 1995; Weiss, 1996), which includes Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence measure as a particular case, were considered to detect influential observations

Tato diplomová práce se zabývá Weibullovými modely, přesněji dvouparametrickým Weibullovým rozdělením. Práce se zabývá odhady parametrů, a to čtyřmi variantami kvantilové metody, metodou maximální věrohodnosti a grafickou metodou Weibullova pravděpodobnostního grafu. Je uvedeno odvození odhadu parametrů pro jednovýběrovou analýzu rozptylu pro Weibullovo rozdělení. Jsou zde odvozeny vztahy pro model s konstantním parametrem alfa, s konstantním parametrem beta a s oběma konstantními parametry. Také jsou uvedeny testové statistiky pro rušivé parametry - skórový test, Waldův test a test založený na věrohodnostním poměru. V poslední kapitole je provedena aplikace jednotlivých představených metod. Srovnání metod je ukázáno pomocí grafů, histogramů a tabulek. Metody jsou naprogramovány v~softwaru R. Jejich funkčnost a vlastnosti jsme ověřili na dvou simulovaných souborech dat. Diplomová práce je zakončena příkladem tří simulovaných náhodných výběrů, na kterých byla provedena analýza pomocí zavedených metod.

This Master’s thesis focuses on the wind turbines. It describes the basic attributes of the wind energy and the wind potential of Slovak Republic, as well as the environmental impact of this sector. Meteorological data for the selected location are processed according to the Weibull distribution and they are used for the aerodynamic design of the wind turbine blades. Aerodynamic design is processed by using two methods. The first is the blade cascade theory, which is used to design prismatic and twist blades. The second method is called the blade element momentum, which is used to design wind turbine but only twist blades are designed by using this theory. Calculated aerodynamic shapes are compared and the best economic solution for the selected location is chosen.

This master‘s thesis focuses on wind turbines. The first part describes the basic attributes of wind energy and wind turbines and is accompanied by a many images. The next section is a statistical processing of measured meteorological data from measuring stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. These data are then used for calculations of the blades of wind turbines. The calculations are carried by two different methods. The first method is called the blade element momentum theory, the second method is the theory of blade cascade. Using these methods are obtained by two different blades. The last section compares the two blades in terms of geometric and performance.

Progressive Type-II censoring was introduced by Cohen (1963) and has since been the topic of much research. The question stands whether it is sensible to use this sampling plan by design, instead of regular Type-II right censoring. We introduce an asymptotic progressive censoring model, and find optimal censoring schemes for location-scale families. Our optimality criterion is the determinant of the 2x2 covariance matrix of the asymptotic best linear unbiased estimators. We present an explicit expression for this criterion, and conditions for its boundedness. By means of numerical optimization, we determine optimal censoring schemes for the extreme value, the Weibull and the normal distributions. In many situations, it is shown that these progressive schemes significantly improve upon regular Type-II right censoring.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer au développement de l'énergie éolienne au Liban et des problèmes de stockage qui y sont liés. Une analyse des caractéristiques du vent dans 14 sites libanais a été effectuée dans le but de sélectionner les sites optimaux pour l'implantation d'éoliennes. Après la sélection de ces cinq sites optimaux, le choix de l'éolienne adéquate et la détermination du nombre d'éoliennes qui pourrait être érigées dans chacun de ces cinq sites, une évaluation du potentiel éolien a été réalisée afin d'estimer la quantité d'électricité qui pourrait être produite par ces éoliennes. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a un excédent d'électricité produite par les éoliennes qui pourrait être enregistré pendant la nuit, ce qui nous a incités à travailler sur la conception et le dimensionnement d'un système de stockage hydraulique de l'énergie éolienne afin d'optimiser sa pénétration dans le réseau. Les cinq sites sélectionnés pour l'implantation d'éoliennes au Liban ont été soumis à la procédure d'évaluation et d'examen des impacts sur l'environnement, notamment sur le paysage et les oiseaux, ce qui aide à faciliter l'élaboration des projets prenant en compte tous les enjeux environnementaux. A la fin du travail, des pistes d'élaboration d'un règlement pour l'implantation d'éoliennes au Liban et une analyse économique du projet d'implantation d'éoliennes et d'un système de stockage ont été menées. / The objective of this thesis is to investigate of the development of the wind power in Lebanon and storage related issues. An analysis of wind characteristics at 14 Lebanese sites was carried out in order to select the optimal sites for the implementation of wind turbines. After the optimization procedure (5 sites in final), the choice of the appropriate wind turbine (in terms of capacity) and the determination of the number of wind turbines that could be erected in each of selected sites, an evaluation of the wind potential has been performed to estimate the level of electrical power that could be produced. The results show that there is an overproduction of electricity could be registered during the night, which prompted us to work on the design and dimensioning of a hydraulic storage of wind energy system to optimize its penetration into the grid. The five selected sites for the installation of wind turbines in Lebanon were subjected to the evaluation process and review of environmental impacts, particularly regarding landscape and birds, which helps to facilitate project development taking into account all environmental issues. At the end of the work, tentative regulations to erect wind turbines in Lebanon and an economic analysis of the wind project and implementation of a storage system have been proposed. / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished