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<p>The topic of the research in this dissertation is the application of machine<br />learning in solving problems characteristic to biosystems, with special<br />emphasis on agriculture. Firstly, an innovative regression algorithm based on<br />big data was presented, that was used for yield prediction. The predictions<br />were then used as an input for the improved portfolio optimisation algorithm,<br />so that appropriate soybean varieties could be selected for fields with<br />distinctive parameters. Lastly, a multi-objective optimisation problem was set<br />up and solved using a novel method for categorical evolutionary algorithm<br />based on NSGA-III.</p> / <p>Предмет истраживања докторске дисертације је примена машинског учења у решавању проблема карактеристичних за биосистемe са нагласком на пољопривреду. Најпре је представљен иновативни алгоритам за регресију који је примењен на великој количини података како би се са предиковали приноси. На основу предикција одабране су одговарајуће сорте соје за њиве са одређеним карактеристикама унапређеним алгоритмом оптимизације портфолија. Напослетку је постављен оптимизациони проблем одређивања сетвене структуре са вишеструким функцијама циља који је решен иновативном методом, категоричким еволутивним алгоритмом заснованом на NSGA-III алгоритму.</p> / <p>Predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije je primena mašinskog učenja u rešavanju problema karakterističnih za biosisteme sa naglaskom na poljoprivredu. Najpre je predstavljen inovativni algoritam za regresiju koji je primenjen na velikoj količini podataka kako bi se sa predikovali prinosi. Na osnovu predikcija odabrane su odgovarajuće sorte soje za njive sa određenim karakteristikama unapređenim algoritmom optimizacije portfolija. Naposletku je postavljen optimizacioni problem određivanja setvene strukture sa višestrukim funkcijama cilja koji je rešen inovativnom metodom, kategoričkim evolutivnim algoritmom zasnovanom na NSGA-III algoritmu.</p>

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A key challenge for maximizing the world’s food supply is crop yield prediction. In this study, three machine models are used to predict the fresh weight (yield) of lettuce plants that are grown inside indoor farms hydroponically using the vertical farming infrastructure, namely, support vector regressor (SVR), random forest regressor (RFR), and deep neural network (DNN).The climate data, nutrient data, and plant growth data are passed as input to train the models to understand the growth pattern based on the available features. The study of evaluation metrics majorly covers Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared, and Adjusted R-squared values.The results of the project have shown that the Random Forest with all the features is the best model having the best results with the least cross-validated MAE score and good cross-validated Adjusted R-squared value considering that the error of the prediction is minimal. This is followed by the DNN model with minor differences in the resulting values. The Support Vector Regressor (SVR) model gave a very poor performance with a huge error value that cannot be afforded in this scenario. In this study, we have also compared various evaluating metrics mentioned above and considered the cross-validated MAE and cross-validated Adjusted R-squared metrics. According to our study, MAE had the lowest error value, which is less sensitive to the outliers and adjusted R-squared value helps to understand the variance of the target variable with the predictor variable and adjust the metric to prevent the issues of overfitting.

Agricultural industry has started to rely more on data driven approaches to improve productivity and utilize their resources effectively. This thesis project was carried out in collaboration with Ljusgårda AB, it explores plant yield prediction using machine learning models and hyperparameter tweaking. This thesis work is based on data gathered from the company and the plant yield prediction is carried out on two scenarios whereby each scenario is focused on a different time frame of the growth stage. The first scenario predicts yield from day 8 to day 22 of DAT (Day After Transplant), while the second scenario predicts yield from day 1 to day 22 of DAT and three machine learning algorithms Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short Time Memory (LSTM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were investigated. Machine learning model’s performances were evaluated using the metrics; Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and r-squared. The evaluation results showed that ANN performed best on MSE and r-squared with dataset 1, while SVR performed best on MAE with dataset 2. Thus, both ANN and SVR meets the objective of this thesis work. The hyperparameter tweaking experiment of the three models further demonstrated the significance of hyperparameter tuning in improving the models and making them more suitable to the available data.

This study identified marginal agricultural lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley using crop yield predicting models. The Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were trained and validated using county-level crop yield data, climate data, soil properties, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The RFR model outperformed MLR model in estimating soybean and corn yields, with an index of agreement (d) of 0.98 and 0.96, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and 0.93, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.34% and 5.84%, respectively. Marginal agricultural lands were estimated to 26,366 hectares using cost and sales price in 2021 while they were estimated to 623,566 hectares using average cost and sales price from 2016 to 2021. The results provide valuable information for land use planners and farmers to update field crops and plan alternative land uses that can generate higher returns while conserving these marginal lands.

En agriculture, la météo est le principal facteur de variabilité d’une année sur l’autre. Cette thèse vise à construire des modèles statistiques à grande échelle qui estiment l’impact des conditions météorologiques sur les rendements agricoles. Le peu de données agricoles disponibles impose de construire des modèles simples avec peu de prédicteurs, et d’adapter les méthodes de sélection de modèles pour éviter le sur-apprentissage. Une grande attention a été portée sur la validation des modèles statistiques. Des réseaux de neurones et modèles à effets mixtes (montrant l’importance des spécificités locales) ont été comparés. Les estimations du rendement de maïs aux États-Unis en fin d’année ont montré que les informations de températures et de précipitations expliquent en moyenne 28% de la variabilité du rendement. Dans plusieurs états davantage météo-sensibles, ce score passe à près de 70%. Ces résultats sont cohérents avec de récentes études sur le sujet. Les prévisions du rendement au milieu de la saison de croissance du maïs sont possibles à partir de juillet : dès juillet, les informations météorologiques utilisées expliquent en moyenne 25% de la variabilité du rendement final aux États-Unis et près de 60% dans les états plus météo-sensibles comme la Virginie. Les régions du nord et du sud-est des États-Unis sont les moins bien prédites. Le rendements extrêmement faibles ont nécessité une méthode particulière de classification : avec seulement 4 prédicteurs météorologiques, 71% des rendements très faibles sont bien détectés en moyenne. L’impact du changement climatique sur les rendements jusqu’en 2060 a aussi été étudié : le modèle construit nous informe sur la rapidité d’évolution des rendements dans les différents cantons des États-Unis et localisent ceux qui seront le plus impactés. Pour les états les plus touchés (au sud et sur la côte Est), et à pratique agricole constante, le modèle prévoit des rendements près de deux fois plus faibles que ceux habituels, en 2060 sous le scénario RCP 4.5 du GIEC. Les états du nord seraient peu touchés. Les modèles statistiques construits peuvent aider à la gestion sur le cours terme (prévisions saisonnières) ou servent à quantifier la qualité des récoltes avant que ne soient faits les sondages post-récolte comme une aide à la surveillance (estimation en fin d’année). Les estimations pour les 50 prochaines années participent à anticiper les conséquences du changement climatique sur les rendements agricoles, pour définir des stratégies d’adaptation ou d’atténuation. La méthodologie utilisée dans cette thèse se généralise aisément à d’autres cultures et à d’autres régions du monde. / In agriculture, weather is the main factor of variability between two consecutive years. This thesis aims to build large-scale statistical models that estimate the impact of weather conditions on agricultural yields. The scarcity of available agricultural data makes it necessary to construct simple models with few predictors, and to adapt model selection methods to avoid overfitting. Careful validation of statistical models is a major concern of this thesis. Neural networks and mixed effects models are compared, showing the importance of local specificities. Estimates of US corn yield at the end of the year show that temperature and precipitation information account for an average of 28% of yield variability. In several more weather-sensitive states, this score increases to nearly 70%. These results are consistent with recent studies on the subject. Mid-season maize crop yield forecasts are possible from July: as of July, the meteorological information available accounts for an average of 25% of the variability in final yield in the United States and close to 60% in more weather-sensitive states like Virginia. The northern and southeastern regions of the United States are the least well predicted. Predicting years for which extremely low yields are encountered is an important task. We use a specific method of classification, and show that with only 4 weather predictors, 71% of the very low yields are well detected on average. The impact of climate change on yields up to 2060 is also studied: the model we build provides information on the speed of evolution of yields in different counties of the United States. This highlights areas that will be most affected. For the most affected states (south and east coast), and with constant agricultural practice, the model predicts yields nearly divided by two in 2060, under the IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario. The northern states would be less affected. The statistical models we build can help for management on the short-term (seasonal forecasts) or to quantify the quality of the harvests before post-harvest surveys, as an aid to the monitoring (estimate at the end of the year). Estimations for the next 50 years help to anticipate the consequences of climate change on agricultural yields, and to define adaptation or mitigation strategies. The methodology used in this thesis is easily generalized to other cultures and other regions of the world.

<p>There is a growing demand for indoor farm management systems that can track plant growth, allow automatic control and aid in real-time decision making. Internet of Thing (IoT)-based solutions are being applied to meet these needs and numerous researchers have created prototypes for meeting specific needs using sensors, algorithms, and automations. However, limited studies are available that report on comprehensive large-scale experiments to test various aspects related to availability, scalability and reliability of sensors and actuators used in low-cost indoor farms. The purpose of this study was to develop a low-cost, IoT devices driven indoor farm as a testbed for growing microgreens and other experimental crops. The testbed was designed using off-the-shelf sensors and actuators for conducting research experiments, addressing identified challenges, and utilizing remotely acquired data for developing an intelligent farm management system. The sensors were used for collecting and monitoring electrical conductivity (EC), pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) levels of the nutrient solution, light intensity, environmental variables, and imagery data. The control of light emitting diodes (LEDs), irrigation pumps, and camera modules was carried out using commercially available components. All the sensors and actuators were remotely monitored, controlled, and coordinated using a cloud-based dashboard, Raspberry Pis, and Arduino microcontrollers. To implement a reliable, real-time control of actuators, edge computing was used as it helped in minimizing latency and identifying anomalies.</p> <p>Decision making about overall system performance and harvesting schedule was accomplished by providing alerts on anomalies in the sensors and actuators and through installation of cameras to predict yield of microgreens, respectively. A split-plot statistical design was used to evaluate the effect of lighting, nutrition solution concentration, seed density, and day of harvest on the growth of microgreens. This study complements and expands past efforts by other researchers on building a low cost IoT-based indoor farm. While the experience with the testbed demonstrates its real-world potential of conducting experimental research, some major lessons were learnt along the way that could be used for future enhancements.</p>

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / An erosion prediction method that has recently received wide attention in the United States is the universal soil loss equation which is given as: a=rklscp. Where a = estimated soil loss (tons/acre/year), r = a rainfall factor, k = a soil erodibility factor, l = a slope length factor, s = a slope gradient factor, c = a cropping-management factor, and p = an erosion control practice factor. Data collected on the walnut gulch experimental watershed in southeastern Arizona were used to estimate these factors for semiarid rangeland conditions. The equation was then tested with data from watersheds of 108 and 372 acres. The predicted value of annual sediment yield was 1.29 tons/acre/year as compared with an average 1.64 tons/acre/year for 4 years of data for the 108-acre watershed, and a sediment yield of 0.39 tons/acre/year was predicted for the 372-acre watershed as compared with the measured value of 0.52 tons/acre/year. Although good agreement was noted between predicted and actual sediment yield, additional work is needed before the equation can be applied to other areas of the southwest.