有鑑於台灣銀行保險市場重要性之提升，金融各界皆高度關注銀行保險市場的發展，然而國內尚缺乏專業客觀的指標以全面地衡量銀行保險市場，僅能就每月公布之新契約保費收入數據觀察銀行保險市場。因此本研究目的為建置多元化銀行保險市場指標，分別為總體經濟因素指標、銀行保險業務趨勢指標與市場專業意見指標，以提供市場各界評估銀行保險市場之發展。
總體經濟因素指標部分，本研究利用多元迴歸模型，分析對於我國銀行保險市場有顯著影響力的因子，包括一年期定存利率、景氣對策信號分數、超額儲蓄率、金融保險業從業人員數與台灣整體銀行分行數等，並據以建置總體經濟因素指標。銀行保險業務趨勢指標部分，本研究利用移動平均法，觀測銀行保險市場的業務趨勢，以長短期均線比較方式，用以建構評估銀行保險業務變動趨勢。 市場專業意見指標部分，本研究蒐集彙整銀行保險市場專業經理人及從業人員之意見，以建構市場專業意見指標，透過上述三項指標提供市場更完整專業的市場資訊與預測工具，使本研究建置之指標不僅於量化數據而兼顧質化意見。 / Bancassurance is unquestionably one of the most important trend in Taiwan’s financial market, and has received much attention from both researchers and policymakers. The aim of this article is to construct bancassurance indicators for Taiwan, which provide more diverse and professional ways to measure and predict bancassurance market.
We build three indicators, they are about the influence of macroeconomic factors, the trend in bancassurance, and the professional advice from bancassurance experts, and we name them Macro-indicator, Trend-indicator, and Expert-indicator respectively. Every indicator are built with different methods, the Macro-indicator is constructed by creating a multiple regression model that is using first year premium for bancassurance as a dependent variable with macroeconomic factors as predictor variables, which are 1-year interest rate, monitoring indicator, excess saving rate, number of employees in financial market, and number of bank branches in Taiwan. Also, we use the concept of moving average method in technical analysis to develop the Trend-indicator, which can be used to examine trends and patterns as well as infer future trends by observing the momentum in bancassurance market. To provide the market more insights, we set up an electronic platform to collect professional advices and ideas from bancassurance experts so that we could understand bancassurance market condition and direction more objectively.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G1003580072 |
| Creators | 陳虹羽, Chen, Hung Yu |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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