本論文旨在探討管理當局之自願性盈餘預測事件對股價及交易量反應之影響，以瞭解預測資訊之品質與其資訊內涵間之關聯性。本研究選取國內之150家上市公司在民國75年至85年間的1035個首次自願性盈餘預測資料為樣本，根據相關之理論及實證文獻建立五項可能影響資訊內涵的因素－公司規模、盈餘預測精確度、盈餘變異性、預測揭露時點與未預期盈餘，以t檢定及多元迴歸分析方式檢視預測發布期間之資訊內涵假說。實證結果顯示： 一、公司規模與預測發布期間之異常價量反應成反比。 二、盈餘預測準確度與預測發布期間之異常價量反應成正比，與Kim及Verrecchia(1991)之理論分析結果相符。 三、盈餘變異性於國內並非預測發布期間之異常價量反應的良好解釋因素，研究假說未獲支持。此一現象可能係困盈餘變異性對市場反應之影響並非透過盈餘預測之精確度而是另有其他原因所致。 四、預測揭露時點之早晚與預測發布期間之異常價量反應成正比，顯示自願性盈餘預測之資訊內涵會受到該訊息之能否及時提供而影響，證明『時效性』為會計資訊之攸關品質特性。 五、未預期盈餘之絕對值與預測發布期間之異常價量反應成正比。 / This study investgates the effects of managers' voluntary earnings forecast quality on investors' trading behavior. The relationships between firm size, precision of forecast, stability of earnings, timing of disclosures, unexpected earnings and price and volume reactions are examined. Kim and Verrecchia(1991) modeled the price and volume reactions to the public announcement as a positive function of the information's precision. We test these predictions with a sample of 1035 managers' voluntary earnings forecasts for 1986-1996 annual earnings. T statistical test and regression analysis are applied to test the information content hypothesis. We obtain the following results: 1. Price and volume reactions are inversely related to firm size. 2. Price and volume reactions are increasing functions of the precision of management forecasts. These results are consistent with Kirn and Verrecchia's(1991) theoretical proposition. 3.The relationship between stability of earnings and price and volume reactions are not significant around the period of managers' voluntary earnings forecasts issued. 4.The eariler the timing of disclosures, the higher the price and volume reactions. Thus for information to be relevant, it must be presented on a timely basis. 5.Price and volume reactions are positively correlated with the absolute value of the unexpected earnings.

在大眾運輸導向（Transit-Oriented Development, TOD）所推行的捷運站區土地混合使用政策的背景下，本研究探討住商混合使用對於住宅房價之影響。本研究之研究假設有三：第一，不同空間尺度的混合使用，會對房價形成不同的影響；第二，其他土地使用種類越多，住宅房價越高；第三，商業使用之量體大小，對於房價形成不同的影響。本研究以台北市住宅為研究對象，研究時間為2001年，樣本數670 份。分析工具包含運用地理資訊系統(Geographic Information Systems, GIS)進行空間變數處理，以及多元迴歸分析（Multiple regression analysis）進行統計分析。研究成果驗證研究假設，於同棟及同街廓的空間尺度中，住商混合對住宅房價造成下降的影響，而相鄰街廓的住商混合使用使得住宅房價提升；且相鄰街廓混合使用種類越多，住宅房價越高。研究結果可做為政府擬定土地使用管制計畫之參考。

有鑑於台灣銀行保險市場重要性之提升，金融各界皆高度關注銀行保險市場的發展，然而國內尚缺乏專業客觀的指標以全面地衡量銀行保險市場，僅能就每月公布之新契約保費收入數據觀察銀行保險市場。因此本研究目的為建置多元化銀行保險市場指標，分別為總體經濟因素指標、銀行保險業務趨勢指標與市場專業意見指標，以提供市場各界評估銀行保險市場之發展。 　 總體經濟因素指標部分，本研究利用多元迴歸模型，分析對於我國銀行保險市場有顯著影響力的因子，包括一年期定存利率、景氣對策信號分數、超額儲蓄率、金融保險業從業人員數與台灣整體銀行分行數等，並據以建置總體經濟因素指標。銀行保險業務趨勢指標部分，本研究利用移動平均法，觀測銀行保險市場的業務趨勢，以長短期均線比較方式，用以建構評估銀行保險業務變動趨勢。　　市場專業意見指標部分，本研究蒐集彙整銀行保險市場專業經理人及從業人員之意見，以建構市場專業意見指標，透過上述三項指標提供市場更完整專業的市場資訊與預測工具，使本研究建置之指標不僅於量化數據而兼顧質化意見。 / Bancassurance is unquestionably one of the most important trend in Taiwan’s financial market, and has received much attention from both researchers and policymakers. The aim of this article is to construct bancassurance indicators for Taiwan, which provide more diverse and professional ways to measure and predict bancassurance market. We build three indicators, they are about the influence of macroeconomic factors, the trend in bancassurance, and the professional advice from bancassurance experts, and we name them Macro-indicator, Trend-indicator, and Expert-indicator respectively. Every indicator are built with different methods, the Macro-indicator is constructed by creating a multiple regression model that is using first year premium for bancassurance as a dependent variable with macroeconomic factors as predictor variables, which are 1-year interest rate, monitoring indicator, excess saving rate, number of employees in financial market, and number of bank branches in Taiwan. Also, we use the concept of moving average method in technical analysis to develop the Trend-indicator, which can be used to examine trends and patterns as well as infer future trends by observing the momentum in bancassurance market. To　provide the market more insights, we set up an electronic platform to collect professional advices and ideas from bancassurance experts so that we could understand bancassurance market condition and direction more objectively.

企業之生存、成長及績效，環境之影響至巨，若企業本身處於一個發展潛力甚高的產 業，則環境之優渥保證了企業的未來遠景，當然管理能力亦為一重要決定因素。 本研究的目的即是在探討企業環境對於企業本身之生存、成長及績效之影響關係。以 美國Edward H.Mason與J.S.Bain等人所發展的產業組織學（Industrial Organizatio n ）為架構，以多元迴歸分析（Multiple Regression Analgsis）為方法，研究我國 目前大型企業之環境與其績效間之關係，布冀從其中獲致企業良好投資環境之指引。 樣本包含了自民國６７年至７０年連續四年進入中華徵信所出版「全國最大民營企業 」排行之三百二十餘家民營製造業者，選出與績效與產業特色有關變數指標共十四個 ，如利潤率、成刁率、市場集中度、市場佔有率等。資源來源為：（一）中華徵信所 「全國最大民營企業」６８─７１年版。（二）經濟部統計處「中華民國工商業調查 報告」１１─１４輯。（三）財政部統計處「中華民國進出貿易統計月報」民國７２ 年三月版。

本研究以TEPS資料庫第二、三波追蹤樣本為資料來源，使用多元迴歸分析中的OLS（ordinal least squares）最小平方法，分析不同管教方式之父母比較行為如何影響子女之綜合能力。刪除作答不全的缺失值後，共計取得有效樣本為2,595人。 研究結果顯示：父母管教方式若以雙向度作為分類，以高反應（74.6％）與高要求（69.2％）者居多，綜合兩大面向後，有52.40％的父母採取開明權威型的管教方式，有22.20％的父母為專制權威型，有16.90％的父母為寬鬆放任型，有8.50％的父母是忽視冷漠型。此外，父母最常把子女與其同班同學（45.5％）進行比較，其次依序為鄰居小孩、同事或朋友小孩（42.0％）、同年齡的親戚（37.0％）、兄弟姊妹（26.9％），父母最少拿自己小時候（18.8％）與子女相比。 經由多元迴歸分析之後得知，無論是開明權威、專制權威、寬鬆放任或忽視冷漠型的父母，凡拿子女與其「同班同學」比較者，子女的綜合能力越高，達到統計顯著水準；但是當父母持專制權威的管教方式時，無論有無加入控制變項（子女性別、父母教育程度和家庭月收入），有與「同班同學」和「父母小時候」比較者，其綜合能力顯著越高，但與「同年齡親戚」比較者，其綜合能力顯著越低。 / The research was to explore the effects of parenting style, parental comparison, and the interaction of them on children’s general ability. Data were collected from Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS), the core panel in the second and the third wave. Total number of the students from high school reduced to 2,595 people after listwise deletion. We explored the effects by using ordinal least squares in the multiple regression analysis. The results showed that there were 74.6% high-respective parents, and 69.2% high-demanding ones. Mixed with the two dimensions, demanding and responsive, there were 52.40% authoritative parents, 22.20% authoritarian ones, 16.90% indulgent ones, and 8.50% neglectful ones. Besides, parents compared their children with their classmates (45.5%), neighbors (42.0%), cousins (37.0%), siblings (26.9%), and parents’ childhood (18.8%). After regression, the results showed in the following ways. First, no matter what the parenting style was, children who were compared with classmates had significantly higher ability. Whether adding the control variables like children’ gender, parents’ education level and family monthly income or not, when parents were authoritarian, children compared with classmates and parents’ childhood had significantly higher ability. Meanwhile, if they were compared with cousins, then they had significantly lower ability. Keywords: Taiwan Education Panel Survey (TEPS), multiple regression analysis, parenting style, social comparison, general ability

網際網路的發展讓人們的生活起了變化，Web2.0的概念更是增加了人們對網際網路的依賴性，我們成為網路內容的生產者、我們在社交網站上發表、追縱朋友的動態，以及取得全球世界各地的資訊。在這無限的虛擬空間中隱含的巨大商機，讓各大企業紛紛而至，因而加速了Web2.0社群網站的發展，維持與增加網站流量更是成為社群網站生存的關鍵與重要的績效指標。但社群網站該如何從流量指標之變化來評斷社群網站之績效呢?這是令我們最好奇之處。 藉由Google Analytics提供的流量分析工具，本研究蒐集了台灣四間社群網站1-3年間的流量資訊進行分析，考量蒐集之資訊具時間序列性質特性，本研究首先採用移動視窗法重新進行資料的整理，並據此概念應用在後續的統計分析。此外，本就以指數加權平均法及多元迴歸分析進行流量異常值之偵測，最後，對照各網站重大事件里程碑並與各網站業主進行一對一深訪。故本研究實際上包含質、量化之分析結果。 本篇研究四間個案網站為例，並依網站創造的服務與使用者互動情形流量將其區分為社交互動型與資訊交換型網站，並歸納其在網站流量指標上不同特徵表現及各自可參考之績效評估指標。同時，本研究採用多元迴歸分析做為社群網站績效評估模型，並企圖建構一績效評估分析流程期以做為後續研究者針對網站流量相關研究之參考。 / The development of Internet makes a great influence on human society and the development of Web2.0 enhances human’s dependence on the internet and becomes a channel of social connections. Currently, most contents of the Internet are generated by common users who could retrieve information through the entire network and trace their friends’ actions over the Social Network Sites (SNSs).Owing to the potential business opportunities on the internet, companies try to enter the market causing the prosperities of SNSs. Maintaining or even increasing traffic flows become a critical issue for SNSs to survive in the competitive market. However, how to evaluate the performance of SNSs based on traffic flow indices remains unsolved.This study collected Google Analytics data for 1-3 years from four SNSs’, respectively.Consider the time series charactics, this study applied “Moving Windows“ to organize the data for further statistical analysis.In addition, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average and Multiple Regression Analysis were used to detect the abnormal traffic flows. Finally, these abnormal records were compared with the important events and one-on-one interviewings with the SNSs operators were conducted. The results of this study are based on qualitative and quentitative analysis. This research studiesd four SNSs that were categorized into information-oriented and interaction-oriented services based on their services and users’ interaction. The SNSs at different categories behaved differently following certain characteristics defined previously.A performance evaluation process was developed as a reference for further studies.