「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係，「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性；反之，則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言，會產出不同的「決策」結果，此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關，亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。
因此，本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係，架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性，再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」，企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係，並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證，說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域，及美伊戰爭決策缺失中，檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」，文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關，除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外，更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」，將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能，進而有利於優質決策的產出。 / There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition.
For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War.
This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker's prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0912615021 |
| Creators | 紀光陽, Chi,Kuang Yang |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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