本文試圖對於北韓在後冷戰時期進行看似複雜與矛盾的內外政策進行分析，並整理出其規律性並予以模型化。而本文發現北韓應付生存危機首重外交與經濟政策，其規律性展現於：當外部危機出現惡化時，北韓外交政策會傾向使用邊緣策略；但外部危機出現好轉的時，北韓外交政策則會傾向使用妥協策略。另外，北韓經濟政策也出現一定的規律性，但其策略的採用必須同時考量到經濟與政治因素。而北韓經濟策略的規律性表現於：當經濟危機出現好轉時，但當局有政治考量的情況下，經濟策略將傾向使用計劃經濟搭配爭取經援，且對經濟改革進行限縮的情形；但經濟危機出現惡化時，當局的政治考量出現(或必須)退位，此時經濟策略將傾向於使用計劃經濟搭配爭取經援，並且進行經濟改革，或放鬆對經改的限縮。而本文依照上述所觀察出北韓外交與經濟策略的規律性，建立出分析模型，並以此預測出北韓未來可能採行的策略。
關鍵詞：北韓、外部危機、經濟危機、邊緣策略、妥協策略、計劃經濟、爭取經
援、經濟改革、受限縮的經改 / This paper tries to analyze and modelize the policies of the DPRK which look like complicated and paradoxical. It explores the DPRK puts emphasis on the foreign and economic policies to deal with he risks of her survival, and her policies or strategies can be formulated into a pattern. The pattern of her foreign strtegies shows that the authorities tend to engage in the brinkmanship after the economic risk getting worse, and they also tend to conduct the compromise after the economic risk getting better. Futhermore, the economic policies of the DPRK also shows the pattern. However, the political and economic factors should be considerated in the pattern. It shows that the authorities tend to engage in the package strategies including planned economy, aid-seeking and reform with restriction when the economic risk gets better and political concern exists. On the other hand, they tend to conduct the package strategies including planned economy, aid-seeking and reform without restriction when the economic risk coming worse and political concern diminishes. According to the pattern of foreign and economic strategies, it can be constructed the model and predicts the responses of strategies by the DPRK.
Keywords: North Korea (Democratic Republic of Korea, DPRK); external risk; economic risk; brinkmanship; compromise; planned economy; aid-seeking strategy; economic reform; economic reform without restriction
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0093252004 |
| Creators | 施志平, Shih Chih Ping |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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