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Russia’s nuclear signaling since the start of the war in Ukraine has been prevalent but far fromeasy to understand. Nuclear threats are often ambiguous and vague—prompting one to wonderjust how effective they are as a coercive tool in general and in the Ukraine war in particular.The destructive potential of nuclear weapons has been described as providing nuclear states witha coercive advantage towards non-nuclear states. Not only as a tool of deterrence but as a tool ofcompellence. However, there may be certain communicative and credibility issues in the way ofsuccessful nuclear coercion. We use data of Russian nuclear signaling in the first 18 months ofthe war in Ukraine and investigate whether these signals are recognized by the Ukrainiangovernment and whether their credibility is questioned. The investigation concludes that Russiannuclear threats are recognized and that the credibility of nuclear threats are sometimesquestioned albeit not consequently. This suggests that the responses to nuclear threats may bejust as ambiguous and vague as the actual threats themselves.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons has shaken the foundations of U.S. policy in Northeast Asia. Because of North Korea's record of state-sponsored terrorism, illicit activities, human rights violations, arms sales, and fiery rhetoric, its development of operational nuclear weapons is deeply disturbing. Although most agree North Korea should not possess nuclear weapons, nobody has a solution. This thesis evaluates three U.S. policy options for North Korean nuclear weapons: incentive-based diplomacy, coercive diplomacy, or military force. It analyzes them according to four criteria: the impact on North Korea's nuclear weapons, the impact on its neighbors (China, Japan, and South Korea), U.S. policy costs, and the precedent for future proliferation. This thesis shows that diplomacy will fail to achieve U.S. objectives for three reasons: lack of trust, DPRK reluctance to permit transparency, and the difficulty of conducting multilateral coercive diplomacy. Ultimately, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's question must be answered: "What price is the United States willing to pay to disarm North Korean nuclear weapons?" If Washington is unwilling to back a threat of military force, it should not risk coercive diplomacy. Likewise, U.S. leaders may need to decide between maintaining the U.S.-ROK alliance and eliminating North Korean nuclear weapons. / Major, United States Air Force

Global civilisation, and therefore population health, is threatened by excessive inequality, weapons of mass destruction, inadequate economic and political theory and adverse global environmental change. The unequal distribution of global foreign exchange adjusted income is both a cause and a reflection of global social characteristics responsible for many aspects of these inter-related crises. ¶ The global distribution of foreign exchange adjusted income for the period 1964-1999 is examined. Using data for more than 99% of the global population, a substantial divergence in its distribution is found. The global Gini co-efficient, adjusted for national income inequality, increased from an already high value of 71% in 1964 to peak at more than 80% in 1995, before falling, very slightly, to 79% in 1999. The global distribution of purchasing parity power income is also examined, for a similar period. Though also found to be extremely unequal, its trend has not been to increased inequality. Implications of the differences between these two trends are discussed. ¶ A weighted time series index of global environmental change (IGEC) for the period 1960-1997 was also calculated. This uses nine categories of global time series environmental data, each scaled so that 100% represents the level of each category in nature prior to anthropogenic change; zero represents decline to a critical point. This index fell from 82% in 1960 to 55% in 1997, and will further decline during this century. ¶ Using evidence from several disciplines, it is argued that the decline in the IGEC correlates with major macro-environmental changes, which, combined with flawed social responses to scarcity and its perception, place at risk the ability of civilisation to function. This could occur because of the interaction of conflict, economically disastrous extreme climatic events, deterioration of other ecosystem services, regional food and water insecurity, and currently unforeseen events. Uncertainty regarding both a safe rate of decline and the tolerable nadir of the IGEC is substantial. ¶ Substantial reduction in the inequality of foreign exchange adjusted income is vital to enhance the development of policies able to reverse the decline in the environmental goods which underpin civilisation, and to promote the co-operation needed to maximise the chance that civilisation will survive.

At the time that this thesis is printed, we are reminded of the tumultuous relationship between North Korea and the United States every day. If we follow the mainstream news regularly, it seems like we are on a steady path to war. Ultimately, this paper is centered around the question: what is the best foreign policy strategy for both countries to achieve respective goals, without descending into armed conflict? Specifically, I evaluated the failures of the last three U.S. Presidents and used their shortcomings to explain limitations in current foreign policy strategy. I also attempted to show North Korean concerns and perspectives regarding these issues, as our cultural and national biases often prevent us from seeing this issue with true clarity. For some background, I combined personal experience with a primary source interview. I then used scholarly articles from a variety of ideological lenses to analyze events from multiple viewpoints. Throughout the paper, I try to force readers to think critically about these events, rather than consume them through short headlines on the evening news. I learned that there is major potential for diplomatic alternatives to armed conflict in this relationship. I also learned that the current foreign policy strategies both countries are engaging in do not serve their best interests, or help to achieve foreign policy goals. These ideas are crucial to understand, as the likelihood for war between North Korea and the United States becomes greater each day. Furthermore, this war would result in immense loss of life and the displacement of millions of innocent people.

本文試圖對於北韓在後冷戰時期進行看似複雜與矛盾的內外政策進行分析，並整理出其規律性並予以模型化。而本文發現北韓應付生存危機首重外交與經濟政策，其規律性展現於：當外部危機出現惡化時，北韓外交政策會傾向使用邊緣策略；但外部危機出現好轉的時，北韓外交政策則會傾向使用妥協策略。另外，北韓經濟政策也出現一定的規律性，但其策略的採用必須同時考量到經濟與政治因素。而北韓經濟策略的規律性表現於：當經濟危機出現好轉時，但當局有政治考量的情況下，經濟策略將傾向使用計劃經濟搭配爭取經援，且對經濟改革進行限縮的情形；但經濟危機出現惡化時，當局的政治考量出現(或必須)退位，此時經濟策略將傾向於使用計劃經濟搭配爭取經援，並且進行經濟改革，或放鬆對經改的限縮。而本文依照上述所觀察出北韓外交與經濟策略的規律性，建立出分析模型，並以此預測出北韓未來可能採行的策略。 關鍵詞：北韓、外部危機、經濟危機、邊緣策略、妥協策略、計劃經濟、爭取經 援、經濟改革、受限縮的經改 / This paper tries to analyze and modelize the policies of the DPRK which look like complicated and paradoxical. It explores the DPRK puts emphasis on the foreign and economic policies to deal with he risks of her survival, and her policies or strategies can be formulated into a pattern. The pattern of her foreign strtegies shows that the authorities tend to engage in the brinkmanship after the economic risk getting worse, and they also tend to conduct the compromise after the economic risk getting better. Futhermore, the economic policies of the DPRK also shows the pattern. However, the political and economic factors should be considerated in the pattern. It shows that the authorities tend to engage in the package strategies including planned economy, aid-seeking and reform with restriction when the economic risk gets better and political concern exists. On the other hand, they tend to conduct the package strategies including planned economy, aid-seeking and reform without restriction when the economic risk coming worse and political concern diminishes. According to the pattern of foreign and economic strategies, it can be constructed the model and predicts the responses of strategies by the DPRK. Keywords: North Korea (Democratic Republic of Korea, DPRK); external risk; economic risk; brinkmanship; compromise; planned economy; aid-seeking strategy; economic reform; economic reform without restriction