Forecasting is used for decision making and unreliable predictions can instill a false sense of condence. Traditional time series modelling is astatistical art form rather than a science and errors can occur due to lim-itations of human judgment. In minimizing the risk of falsely specifyinga process the practitioner can make use of machine learning models. Inan eort to nd out if there's a benet in using models that require lesshuman judgment, the machine learning models Random Forest and Neural Network have been used to model a VAR(1) time series. In addition,the classical time series models AR(1), AR(2), VAR(1) and VAR(2) havebeen used as comparative foundation. The Random Forest and NeuralNetwork are trained and ultimately the models are used to make pre-dictions evaluated by RMSE. All models yield scattered forecast resultsexcept for the Random Forest that steadily yields comparatively precisepredictions. The study shows that there is denitive benet in using Random Forests to eliminate the risk of falsely specifying a process and do infact provide better results than a correctly specied model.

Title of the bachelor's work: "Comparison individual game activities with individual game performance of the league players BC Brandýs of category U19 in basketball. Goals: In my thesis I focused on testing the level of individual game activities and afterwards Compare the results with individual game performance of the players Methods: For diagnosis were used the test of basketball skills and expert analysis of coach and assistant coach. This analysis evaluated the level of performance of individual basketball. Elements. The test of basketball skills and the expert analysis were carried out during the basketball season 2011/12. The results of the basketball skills test were evaluated according to the criterions established by tehe club for this age category (see Chapter 7.3.2). There were determined the evaluation criterions, respectively the rating scale in the rande 1 to 5, for evaluation of the level of basketball elements /see Chapter 7.3.1). The palyers were compared within thein team and based on the results of the evaluation there was assembler the rating of the players. This testing og the individual game activities was compared with the statistics of each player, technical reports respectively with the astatistics of the payers during the baskeball season 2011/12 and with thein individual...

In the first part of this thesis, we study the kinetics of the complexation of a double-stranded DNA byNCp7 protein. To do this, we study the evolution of mechanical properties of DNA and its complexation by stretching the DNA/NCp7 complex with a optical trap. We observed that the persistence length of the complex decreases progressively during the complexation. Using astatistical model we describe the evolution of the flexibility of DNA complexed with NCp7. Our main result is that the fraction phi of base pairs that have reacted is not a linear function of time at low phi.We interpret our results assuming that the adsorption of NCp7 on DNA is highly cooperative. In the second chapter, we describe the dynamics of probe particles in a colloidal glassy suspension of Laponite. Laponite is a colloidal discoidal particle of 25 nm in diameter and 0.92 nm thick. We take advantage of evanescent wave microscopy, and follow the movement of fluorescent latex particles.Then we image these particles. We show that for a movement that has a single characteristic time scale, it is simply a linear function of time. We find that, what ever their size, the motion of probe particles can be described by a succession of two dynamic modes, where the fastest mode corresponds to the diffusion of particles in a viscoelastic fluid.

Disabilitybenefit is a publicly funded benefit in Sweden that provides financialprotection to individuals with permanent working ability impairments due todisability, injury, or illness. The eligibility requirements for disabilitybenefit were tightened June 1, 2008 to require that the working abilityimpairment be permanent and that no other factors such as age or local labormarket conditions can affect eligibility for the benefit. The goal of thispaper is to investigate risk factors for the incidence disability benefit andthe effects of the 2008 reform. This is the first study to investigate theimpact of the 2008 reform on the demographics of those that received disabilitybenefit. A logistic regression model was used to study the effect of the 2008law change. The regression results show that the 2008 reform did have astatistically significant effect on the demographics of the individuals whowere granted disability benefit. After the reform women were lessoverrepresented, the older age groups were more overrepresented, and peoplewith short educations were more overrepresented. Although the variables for SKLregions together were jointly statistically significant, their coefficientswere small and the group of variables had the least amount of explanatory valuecompared to the variables for age, education, gender and the interactionvariables.

[Abstract]: Research has suggested that, despite support through policy and resource provision,information and communications technologies (ICTs) have made little impact on the practiceof education and that limited teacher preparation for the use of ICTs represents a partialexplanation. The purpose of this study was to investigate what form of professionaleducation might be effective in preparing pre-service teachers to integrate ICTs into theirteaching. Self-efficacy beliefs about teaching with computers were identified as a potentiallysignificant source of influence on teachers' use of ICTs for teaching. It was proposed thatinteractive multimedia using a problem-based learning design (IMM-PBL) should be aneffective tool for increasing self-efficacy. Principles for the design of IMM-PBL were derivedfrom the relevant literature.An IMM-PBL package was designed and developed for delivery in a web browser formatusing content relevant to the integration of ICTs into teaching. Interviews with and sampleresponses prepared by computer-using teachers provided the basis for ensuring therelevance of content.The completed materials were evaluated in use with a group of 24 final year pre-serviceteachers in a Queensland university. Participants in the trials reported that the materialswere engaging and assisted their learning about integrating computers in their teaching. Astatistically significant increase in self-efficacy for teaching with computers was found forusers who had initially low self-efficacy for teaching with computers.The principles proposed for IMM-PBL design were found to offer a practical basis for thedevelopment of effective learning materials. With further development, IMM-PBL promisesto be a powerful and flexible approach to supporting learning for teachers and otherprofessionals.

<p>The construction industry is often accused of beingfragmented and inefficient in nature due to the lack ofcontinuity and repetitive behaviour in projects. For many yearsinformation technology has been put forward as a solution. But,despite the potentials, little gains have been harvested by thedevelopment of computerised information systems (IS). Theoverall aim of this research is to determine if a moreaccessible and clearly described housing development processcould be enabled by an information system, which in itself,could improve both individual and project (group) performance.Two research questions are being put forward; first, will aprocess-oriented IS positively impact on the performance ofproject managers and in particular on the performance ofproject groups? Second, how important is a process-orientedinformation management process for the success of the IS? Toanswer these questions an action research approach with largeinfluences of survey research has been adopted. The researchconsists of two phases; a process orientation within a largeSwedish housing development company and a survey of projectmanagers¡¦ attitudes towards a new process-orientedIS also including a study of dependencies found among variablesof information system success (ISS). To enable a verificationof the success of the IS an assessment instrument - hypothesismodel - for evaluating ISS was developed. The assessmentinstrument was built on DeLone and McLean's (1992) ISS modeland extended to include measures of information managementprocess quality (process quality). The hypothesis model wasthen tested empirically with a questionnaire survey. Astatistical test was also performed to test the hypothesisedrelationships of the augmented ISS model. In summarising thefindings of the data analysis, it is evident that the new ISreceived unexpected support from the respondents. The findingsalso indicate that the collected and analysed data show supportfor numerous of the hypothesised relationships of ISS.Conclusions are drawn that confirm the presence of a processquality measure for assessing ISS. From a practitioner'sperspective, this research suggests a course of action forprocess oriented organisational development. It also indicatesbeneficiary useof a process focus in IS development.</p><p><b>KEYWORDS:</b>Process orientation, information system,information system success, information management, projectmanagement</p>

In 1964, John Bell showed that a local hidden variables model cannot accommodate all the statistical predictions of quantum theory. This incompatibility was demonstrated by way of the negation of an inequality which put bounds on the expectation values of experimental outcomes. This inequality is known as Bell's inequality, its generalizations are known as Bell-type inequalities, and a Bell or Belltype experiment is a quantum experiment that tests for the violation of such an inequality. . According to the cl)lssical theory of stochastic input-output systems in spacetime, a quantum experiment may be considered as a black-box that has input and output ports distributed along its spacetime boundary and which is at rest in the laboratory frame. For each run of an experiment there are classical input events, i, and classical output events, j, which represent the settings of the devices that determine what quantum variable is to be measured and the outcomes of a quantum measurement respectively. In this thesis, quantum experiments of the Bell-type are considered within this framework. For such stochastic input-output systems, the relation between the inputs and outputs is defined in terms of the measurable conditional probabilities !P(jli), which depend on the probabilities !PCF) of local transfer functions F We define weak nonlocality, or nonlocality in the sense of Bell, as astatistical property of the classical inputs and outputs for which it is impossible to express the conditional probabilities in terms of local transfer functions alone. At least one nonlocal transfer function may have to have nonzero probability. We show that for a given Bell-type experiment, the corresponding Bell-type inequalities are in fact the facet-defining inequalities of a polytope which is given as the convex hull of a finite set of local deterministic systems. This is the Bell-polytope, which, in general, has many facets. Using BellTest, a computer program which we designed for the analysis of such experiments, we find the Bell-type inequalities for ideal and realistic Bell-type experiments which have outputs excluded in the ideal setup.

The construction industry is often accused of beingfragmented and inefficient in nature due to the lack ofcontinuity and repetitive behaviour in projects. For many yearsinformation technology has been put forward as a solution. But,despite the potentials, little gains have been harvested by thedevelopment of computerised information systems (IS). Theoverall aim of this research is to determine if a moreaccessible and clearly described housing development processcould be enabled by an information system, which in itself,could improve both individual and project (group) performance.Two research questions are being put forward; first, will aprocess-oriented IS positively impact on the performance ofproject managers and in particular on the performance ofproject groups? Second, how important is a process-orientedinformation management process for the success of the IS? Toanswer these questions an action research approach with largeinfluences of survey research has been adopted. The researchconsists of two phases; a process orientation within a largeSwedish housing development company and a survey of projectmanagers¡¦ attitudes towards a new process-orientedIS also including a study of dependencies found among variablesof information system success (ISS). To enable a verificationof the success of the IS an assessment instrument - hypothesismodel - for evaluating ISS was developed. The assessmentinstrument was built on DeLone and McLean's (1992) ISS modeland extended to include measures of information managementprocess quality (process quality). The hypothesis model wasthen tested empirically with a questionnaire survey. Astatistical test was also performed to test the hypothesisedrelationships of the augmented ISS model. In summarising thefindings of the data analysis, it is evident that the new ISreceived unexpected support from the respondents. The findingsalso indicate that the collected and analysed data show supportfor numerous of the hypothesised relationships of ISS.Conclusions are drawn that confirm the presence of a processquality measure for assessing ISS. From a practitioner'sperspective, this research suggests a course of action forprocess oriented organisational development. It also indicatesbeneficiary useof a process focus in IS development. KEYWORDS:Process orientation, information system,information system success, information management, projectmanagement / <p>NR 20140805</p>

Background: Low back pain may be treated surgically if a mechanical cause can be identified. In elite athletes,certain spinal adaptations have been described, from the diver’s kyphosis to the gymnast’s spondylolysis. Some of these chronic spinal changes have previously been identified to influence the long-term result of spinal surgery of untrained patients. Purpose:The aim of this study is to determine whether elite athletes have a betteror worse outcome of spinal surgery compared tophysicallyinactivepatients.Methods:Data from patients registered in Swedish National Spine Register SWESPINE between 1996-2014 were analyzed. The patient reported outcome measures (PROM: s)preoperatively, after one year, and two yearswere evaluated with the following instruments: Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for leg-and back pain, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and EuroQol five-dimension scale(EQ5D)for health-related quality of life. Results:Surgical treatmentwas associated withimprovements in VAS for leg pain in both groups (-48 for elite athletes vs. -53 for physically inactive patients) with nostatistically significant difference between the two groups (p = 0.203). VAS forback pain improved in both groups (-37 vs. -44) without a statistically significant difference between the two groups (p=0.073). ODI improved in both groups (-32 vs. -37)withouta statistically significant difference between the two groups (p = 0.142). EQ5D improved the first year for both groups (0.15 vs.0.11)with a decline the second year (-0.15 vs. -0.13) for both groups without a statistically significant difference between both groups (p = 0.140). There was no statistically significant difference forAUC VAS leg (p = 0.178) and AUC VAS back (p= 0.99). However, there was a statistically significant difference for ODI (p = 0.017) and EQ5D (p = 0.002). Conclusion:Disability, back-and leg pain decreasedafter spinal surgery. Quality of life increased the first year but decreased the second year. There was only astatistical difference of outcome between elite-active patients and non-active patients of the AUC for ODI and EQ5D.

In many occupations, exposure to hand-transmitted vibration (HTV) over a prolonged period causes various disorders involving the vascular, neural and musculoskeletal systems, collectively known as the hand-arm vibration syndrome (HAVS). It is a complex and potentially disabling chronic disorder of the upper extremities, especially of the hands. Numbness, tingling, reduced tactile discrimination, and impaired manipulative dexterity are often reported by workers exposed to HTV. The precise pathophysiological mechanism responsible for vascular injuries in HAVS has not yet been fully clarified; it seems to be multifactorial and highly complex. Interaction of neural signals, hormones, mediators and changes in the blood vessel itself appear to contribute to the development of such vascular injuries. This study aims to assess the risk of the hand-transmitted vibration exposure during pneumatic impact wrench operation in a rock drill repair and maintenance workshop at a South African platinum mine. A total of 8 workers working on a day to day basis with impact wrenches were available for this study. For each of the workers a control (not exposed to vibration) was selected on the basis of gender, ethnic group, smoking habits, age and body mass index (BMI). Grip force, dexterity and hand-eye co-ordination were tested on the workers and control group before and after work. Finger systolic blood pressure (FSBP) was also measured after cold provocation of the worker and control groups. Results have shown astatistically significant difference between the two groups with respect coordination, dexterity and FSBP after cold provocation. Vibration measurements shows three workers had values above the suggested ELV of 5 m/s² for an eight hour A (8) workday. With regards to dexterity, workers were capable to manipulate small objects better with their dominant right (vibration exposed) hand after work than before work. In contrast, it seems that the number of pegs correctly inserted by the controls is not uniformly affected by their 8 hour workday. The worker group showed a greater grip force than that of the control group, both before and after work.There was a statistically significant difference between the control and worker group with respect to the number of mistakes during the mirror trace and the time to complete this test only for the right hand. The difference in FSBP after cold provocation between the control and worker group observed is of medium importance when compared with effect sizes, however, there was no statistical significant difference. In this study, it was very difficult to make valid conclusions due to the limitations of a small sample size. A longitudinal study should be conducted preferably using newly appointed workers with no prior exposure to vibration and a sufficient control group to eliminate the effect other confounding variables such as general working conditions. / Thesis (MSc (Occupational Hygiene))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.