Este estudo foi realizado com base nos resultados experimentais relativos a genótipos RB da Série 92 do Programa de Melhoramento Genético da Cana-de-Açúcar da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (PMGCA UFSCar), tendo como finalidade avaliar a representatividade dos locais que compõe sua rede experimental. Para isso foram avaliados os caracteres Toneladas de colmo por hectare (TCH), Pol % da cana (PC) e Toneladas de Pol por hectare (TPH) de 15 genótipos em 13 locais, sendo estes locais referentes às Usinas : Santa Fé, Santa Luiza, Santa Terezinha, São Martinho, Cocal, Bonfim, Santa Elisa - 1, Cruz Alta, Iturama, Aralco, Lucélia, Sonora e Santa Elisa - 2. A partir das análises de variância individuais e conjuntas, foram realizados testes de agrupamento baseado na metodologia de Lin, que se baseia no quadrado da distancia euclidiana para agrupar locais que apresentem similaridade nas respostas dos genótipos; entretanto, com dois critérios de significâncias para a interação genótipos x locais, tais como: p 0,05 (original) e p 0,30 (modificada), para os três caracteres avaliados. A metodologia de Lin original (p 0,05) mostrou ser pouco confiável, podendo possibilitar o agrupamento de locais com valores de quadrados médios da interação genótipos x locais muito próximos da significância. Já a metodologia de Lin modificada mostrou ser mais confiável, apresentando, portanto, menos possibilidades de agrupamento. Assim, por meio da metodologia de Lin (1982) modificada, pode-se notar que se forem considerados os três caracteres simultaneamente (TCH, PC e TPH), apenas os locais referentes às Usinas Santa fé e Cruz Alta poderiam se juntar para formar um grupo, o que possibilitaria a redução de 13 locais para 12 locais. Isso mostra que os locais de experimentação da UFSCar são bem representativos das regiões estudadas. / This study was performed on the basis of experimental results concerning RB genotypes belonging to Series 92 of the sugarcane breeding program of the Universidade Federal de São Carlos (PMGCA - UFSCar), having as purpose to evaluate representativeness of the locations that compose its experimental net. This way, the characters tons of cane per hectare (TCH), Pol % sugar (PC) and Tons of Pol per hectare (TPH) of 15 RB genotypes cultivated in 13 locations, were evaluated. These locations belongs to the following Sugar factories: Santa Fé, Santa Luíza, Santa Terezinha, São Martinho, Cocal, Bonfim, Santa Elisa - 1, Cruz Alta, Iturama, Aralco, Lucélia, Sonora and Santa Elisa - 2. From the individual and joint analyses of variance, tests of grouping based on the methodology of Lin which is based on the Square of Euclidean distance for grouping locations that present similarity in behavior of the genotypes were carried out; however, with two significance criteria of the genotypes by locations interaction, such as: p 0,05 (original) and p 0,30 (modified), for those three parameters evaluated. The original Lin (p0,05) methodology was shown not to be very precise allowing grouping locations that presented average mean squares values of the interaction genotypes by locations very close to the significance. On the other hand, the modified Lin methodology (p 0,30) showed to be more precise, presenting, therefore, less possibilities of grouping. Thus, by using the modified Lin methodology (1982), it can be noticed that if the three characters (TCH, PC and TPH) are simultaneously considered , only the locations related to Santa Fé and Cruz Alta Sugar factories could be joined to form a group, and that would make possible the reduction from 13 to 12 experimental locations. This result show that the locations of experimentation of the UFSCar breeding program are well representative of the studied regions.

As lagoas de estabilização têm sido, por suas características operacionais e baixos custos de implantação, consideradas como a opção mais viável para tratamento de águas residuárias em pequenas e médias comunidades. O sistema composto por lagoa anaeróbia e facultativa em série é o mais empregado no Brasil. Com o avanço no monitoramento das lagoas de estabilização que se iniciou na década de 90, no caso do Estado de São Paulo pela SABESP, e que hoje se encontra bastante estruturado, periódico e confiável, nota-se que esses sistemas apesar de projetados seguindo as técnicas mais recentes, não possuem a eficiência esperada quando em operação. Tornam-se então prementes os estudos no sentido de melhorar o desempenho dos sistemas existentes e fornecer subsídios para novos projetos de lagoas de estabilização. Este trabalho estudou a utilização de chicaneamento nas lagoas de estabilização verificando a influência das chicanas no comportamento hidrodinâmico e desempenho desses sistemas além da utilização de macrófitas aquáticas no processo de tratamento de águas residuárias. Concluiu-se que mesmo com aumento de eficiência de remoção de DQO, 'DBO IND.5', nitrogênio Kjedahl e amoniacal, para ambos os casos: lagoa com aguapé e lagoa com lentilha d’água, os inúmeros problemas operacionais e aumento de custos que surgiram da aplicação das macrófitas aquáticas tornam desaconselhável o uso de aguapé e lentilha d’água em lagoas de tratamento de esgoto. Com relação ao chicaneamento o sistema que mais se aproximou dos valores teóricos, com relação ao tempo de detenção hidráulico e número de dispersão (d), foi a lagoa com chicaneamento longitudinal, melhorando o comportamento hidráulico do sistema, podendo ser considerado uma medida simples e de baixo custo para incrementar a eficiência de lagoas de estabilização / Due to the operational characteristics and low investment costs stabilization ponds have been considered as the most viable option for wastewater treatment in small and medium size communities. Anaerobic and facultative ponds in series are the most used in Brazil. With the progress of monitoring of the stabilization ponds, that was initiated in the decade of 1990 in the State of São Paulo by SABESP, it was observed that these systems do not possess the expected efficiency when in operation, although they were designed following the best available knowledge at that time. Thus, new studies were direct to improve the performance of the existing systems and to supply subsidies for new projects of stabilization ponds. This research examines, separately, the use of baffles and macrophytes in a pilot scale stabilization pond verifying the influence of these elements on the hydrodynamic behavior and performance of the wastewater treatment. It was concluded that although there is an increase in removal efficiency of DQO, 'DBO IND.5', nitrogen Kjedahl and ammoniacal, the several operational problems and increase of costs that had appeared with the application of water hyacinths and duckweed in the pond, it is not recommended to use these aquatic plants in sewer treatment. Concerning the use of baffles the system that came closer to the theoretical values, in relation to the hydraulic time of detention and number of dispersion (d), was the pond with longitudinal baffles. These baffles improved the hydraulic behavior of the system and are a simple measure and of low cost to develop the efficiency of stabilization ponds

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-09-27T13:14:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 wendelalvesdamasceno.pdf: 14936440 bytes, checksum: 2e998515d85ffc1971ef72d37984f99c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-09-27T13:43:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 wendelalvesdamasceno.pdf: 14936440 bytes, checksum: 2e998515d85ffc1971ef72d37984f99c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-27T13:43:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 wendelalvesdamasceno.pdf: 14936440 bytes, checksum: 2e998515d85ffc1971ef72d37984f99c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-23 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O presente trabalho se constituiu a partir de pesquisa quantitativa sobre influência da avaliação pública do Sistema Mineiro de Avaliação da Educação (Simave) sobre o desempenho e desigualdades educacionais em escolas públicas da Rede Municipal e Rede Estadual do Município de Barbacena-MG. Os microdados sobre o desempenho em Matemática e Língua Portuguesa de todas as escolas públicas da cidade no período de 2011 a 2014 foram a base das análises apresentadas. A pesquisa utilizou os dados desempenho nas 5, 9 e 12 séries. O uso dos resultados pela Rede Estadual, como parte de sua Política de Responsabilização, produz melhores desempenhos educacionais do que os apresentados pela Rede Municipal, que não utiliza destes dados para traçar suas diretrizes. Embora tenha melhorado seu desempenho, a Rede Estadual não reduziu as desigualdades de desempenho no interior de sua rede, que ainda se mostra vulnerável às influências das origens sociais e às vantagens e desvantagens produzidas pela mesma nos sistemas escolares. / The present work was based on a quantitative research on the influence of public evaluation of the Mineiro System of Education Evaluation (Simave) on the performance and educational inequalities in public schools of the Municipal Network and State Network of the Municipality of Barbacena-MG. The microdata on performance in Mathematics and Portuguese Language of all public schools in the city from 2011 to 2014 were the basis of the analyzes presented. The research used the performance data in the 5, 9 and 12 series. The use of the results by the State Network as part of its Accountability Policy produces better educational performance than those presented by the Municipal Network, which does not use these data to draw up its guidelines. Although it has improved its performance, it has not reduced performance inequalities within its network, which is still vulnerable to the influences of social origins and the advantages and disadvantages produced by it in school systems.

Orientador: Jose Roberto Rus Perez / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T08:57:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Stoco_Sergio_D.pdf: 2608494 bytes, checksum: 3632c963e6abe46505650c9b4a36ceed (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: O sistema de ensino brasileiro conquistou a universalização do Ensino Fundamental, mas carrega na sua organização e estrutura uma divisão, que segrega as crianças oriundas das famílias mais pobres. Neste contexto, educar para quê? Partindo da perspectiva da família, tendo o domicílio como unidade de análise, este trabalho irá recuperar os processos sociais, em uma abordagem materialista (capitais), que definem os sentidos e as ações familiares na sua função educacional, sistematizados por referenciais teóricos heurísticos que definem o grupo e o sentido social da família, suas motivações econômicas, seus processos simbólicos de legitimação e suas relações e interações. Estes atributos conceituais teóricos e empíricos serão operacionalizados na forma de ativos disponíveis ou não, utilizáveis ou não pelas famílias pesquisadas considerando sua posição social, seu lugar no espaço habitado e suas relações, configurando o espaço social como uma estrutura de oportunidades, estratificadas a partir do conceito de vulnerabilidade social. A metodologia empregada foi desenvolvida na pesquisa "Dinâmica Intrametropolitana e Vulnerabilidade Sócio-demográfica nas Metrópoles do Interior Paulista: Campinas e Santos", que contou com o mapeamento das Zonas de Vulnerabilidade das regiões pesquisadas e com o levantamento de informações ao longo do segundo semestre de 2007, a partir de uma pesquisa domiciliar realizada em 1680 domicílios escolhidos através de uma amostra aleatória especialmente desenhada para refletir a heterogeneidade espacial da Região Metropolitana de Campinas em termos do grau de vulnerabilidade das famílias. Esta inovação na forma de estratificar o espaço e a população em situação de vulnerabilidade social é mais abrangente que as tradicionais medidas de pobreza, pois se refere à condição de não possuir ou não conseguir usar ativos materiais e imateriais que permitiriam ao indivíduo ou grupo social lidar com a situação de pobreza. Dessa forma, os lugares vulneráveis são aqueles nos quais os indivíduos ou grupos sociais enfrentam riscos e a impossibilidade de acesso a serviços e direitos básicos de cidadania como condições habitacionais, sanitárias, educacionais, de trabalho e de participação e acesso diferencial a informação e às oportunidades oferecidas de forma mais ampla àqueles que possuem estas condições. Os primeiros resultados, apresentados na forma de capital físico/financeiro, capital cultural e capital social mostram, de um lado, uma região com infraestrutura bastante consolidada nas regiões de ocupação mais antiga, favorecida pela pujança econômica, pela dinâmica do emprego e renda e pela capacidade tecnológica características desta parte do estado de São Paulo, com avançado processo de universalização das políticas públicas de educação e saúde. Do outro lado, uma população segregada na sua condição de vulnerabilidade social absoluta, marcada tanto pelas péssimas condições de infraestrutura urbana, precariedade e instabilidade nas suas condições de emprego e renda, como na dificuldade de conquistar ativos vinculados à escolaridade, o acesso a serviços (sejam eles públicos ou privados) e os efeitos simbólicos de pertencimento a regiões estigmatizadas. Estas diferenças são apresentadas no trabalho de modo a identificar um conjunto de variáveis (ativos) que determinam uma condição social, que acaba por orientar a forma e a posição que as famílias assumem nas suas escolhas educacionais. / Abstract: The Brazilian educational system achieved universal primary education, but carries its organization and structure in a division that segregates the children from the poorest families. In this context, education for what? From the perspective of the family as the unit of analysis, this work will restore the social processes in a materialist approach (capital), which define the directions and actions in their family educational function, a systematic theoretical heuristics that define the group and social meaning of family, their economic motivations, their symbolic processes of legitimation and their relationships and interactions. These attributes are theoretical and empirical concepts operationalized in the form of active or not available, usable or not by the families surveyed considering their social position, his place in the living space and their relationships by setting social space as an opportunity structure, from the Stratified concept of social vulnerability. The methodology was developed in the search "Intra-metropolitan dynamics and socio-demographic vulnerability in two metropolitan areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: Campinas and Santos" which included the mapping of areas of vulnerability of the areas surveyed and the survey of information throughout the second half of 2007, from a household survey conducted in 1680 households selected through a random sample specially designed to reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas in the degree of vulnerability of families. This innovation in the form of space, and stratify the population in a situation of social vulnerability is more comprehensive than traditional measures of poverty, which refers to the condition of not having or not use of tangible and intangible assets that would allow the individual or social group to deal with the poverty situation. Thus, the vulnerable places are those in which individuals or social groups face risks and lack of access to services and basic rights of citizenship such as housing conditions, health, educational, employment and participation and differential access to information and opportunities more broadly to those who have these conditions. The first results, presented in the form of physical capital / financial, cultural capital and social capital, infrastructure showed a region with a stronger foothold in the oldest settled regions, favored by the boom, the dynamics of employment and income characteristics of the technological capacity part of the state of São Paulo, with advanced process of universalization of public policies on education and health. On the other hand, a population segregated in their absolute condition of social vulnerability, marked both by the appalling conditions of urban infrastructure, insecurity and instability in their conditions of employment and income, as the difficulty of gaining assets related to education, access to services ( whether public or private) and the symbolic effects of belonging to stigmatized regions. These differences are presented in the study to identify a set of variables (assets) that determine a social condition that ultimately guide the shape and position that families take in their educational choices. / Doutorado / Politicas de Educação e Sistemas Educativos / Doutor em Educação

Emirati students studying at the University of the Emirates, one of three major public institutions of higher learning in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have a wide demographic of faculty members teaching them an equally wide variety of courses. All of these courses are mandated to be taught in English. These faculty members bring with them their own cultural assumptions, methods, expectations, educational practices and use of language. While previous studies in multiculturalism explore how faculty members engage, know and understand a multicultural student population, one focus of this thesis is to explore how an international faculty affects a monocultural student body (Brown-Glaude, 2009). Speaking specifically to the students who study in a second language, Badger & MacDonald (2007) argue that there is a difference of culture between learners and educators and acknowledgement of that difference is crucial in understanding students’ needs and academic progress. Often what occurs in the classroom is the students bring with them their own cultural assumptions, ideas, tendencies and expectations while the teacher comes in with what may be completely differing sets of each. This idea is noted by Mughan (1998) who states “In order for language learners to apply the language skills fruitfully and effectively, a knowledge of the cultural environment is essential” (p.124). The aim of the research is to shed light on the effects that an international faculty have on a monocultural student body and vice versa. Specifically, it will look at how divergent attitudes and practices, directly attributable to culture, impact the educational practices in the daily operations of the faculty members and the students. Through this research, I seek to better understand the how the dynamic of having an international teaching faculty differs from what one might call a more traditional cultural education setting in which both the faculty members and students are of the same national culture. The research questions address three themes. First explored are the benefits and pitfalls of having an international faculty with a monocultural student population. Included in this are perceptions of the necessity for such an international faculty, what advantages it offers to students as well what real and potential problems it creates. Secondly, the perceived levels and development of intercultural competence in both faculty members and students is looked at. I examined the perceptions of my participants as to the need for this as well as including why and how this skill set is so important within such an international education environment. Additionally explored was how the significance of that skill set might differ from an educational setting which is not so diverse in culture. Lastly, I wished to have a better understanding of the differences of ontology and epistemology at the University of the Emirates between the international teaching faculty members and their students. Considering the wide spectrum of worldviews that may exist from faculty member to faculty member and how these worldviews may differ from Emirati culture, I felt the practices and operations of such diversity warranted further discussion and exploration. Data were collected via structured interviews with faculty participants and focus groups with student participants. Data were then coded using NVIVO and analyzed through the lens of the literature on multiculturalism in education, development and measurement of intercultural competence and the sociological issues in the contemporary UAE. Findings suggest experience and time served in a multicultural environment remain significant factors in the development of one’s intercultural competence and this should be recognized and better utilized. Also questioned by myself and the participants is the readiness of the UAE as a country and a people for such multiculturalism considering the expedited development and diversity of the current demographics. Results suggest that there is a variance in attitudes regarding the need for multiculturalism in the context of the UAE. Contentions are made regarding the perceived necessity and effectiveness of several aspects of multiculturalism in teaching faculty, as well as the effectiveness or lack thereof of the institution’s preparation of newly-arrived teaching faculty and new students for the cultural diversity they will encounter while teaching and learning at the U of E and in Dubai. The honed-skill of intercultural competence serves as an influential factor throughout the research. Findings presented exemplify how and why it serves as a central skill set to have not only as a globalized member of an international teaching faculty but how and why it is a significant skill fresh graduates must develop during their undergraduate careers at the U of E. Further implications are presented regarding the missed opportunity by the institution to prepare both newly-arrived teaching faculty and students alike for the multicultural education they are to encounter. Aspects of such a multicultural approach include the rationale for having it as well as the mandate of English as a medium of instruction. Examples such as these and others are explored from multiple viewpoints. Additionally, the content which orientation programs include need to be revisited and scrutinized by the institution. The growing field of international education and the implications that effectiveness or ineffectiveness of employment of an international teaching faculty serve as exigencies as to why this research is pertinent to modern education systems. All parties involved, being an international teaching faculty, any student who encounters multiculturalism in education and any administration that employs such multiculturalism in education are stakeholders for whom such findings are relevant.

Studies on vertical stratification of small mammals in the Cerrado biome are scarce and, therefore, this study has the aim to check the community composition of small mammals in relation to the vertical stratum utilization in gallery forest and cerradão of south-western Brazil. The captures were carried out during the months of August/September, November/December 2006 and February/March, May/June 2007. The traps were set in three transaction lines with 10 capture stations each one. Each station had a trap on the ground, other in the understory (2.0 to 3.0 m in height) and another in the canopy (8 to 10 m) in each environment, totalling 60 stations.. With an effort of 3600 traps-night 11 species of small mammals were captured, which were distributed differentially regarding the environments and the utilization of the vertical strata. Species presented habitat high segregation on physiognomies, only Rhipidomys macrurus presented in two environments. As for use of vertical strato for the Correspondence analysis Caluromys philander was the only notable in the canopy, Cryptonanus agricolai, Marmosa murina and, Oecomys bicolor were in the understory, and Gracilinanus agilis and Nectomys rattus were only sampled on the ground. In relation the faunistic and environments parameters formed two groups, where C agricolai and G. Agilis were associated to cerradão, dry season and number of tree and C. philander, M. Murina, N. rattus and O. bicolor were associated to gallery forest, stratification, number of branch and lianas. The Cerrado biome presents distinct fauna of small mammals associated with the two main forest physiognomies in it: gallery forest and cerradão. The utilization of traps in different strata increased the species richness, showing that they are distributed in different vertical strata of the forest, utilizing the complexity of the environment which enables them to coexist. / Estudos sobre estratificação vertical por pequenos mamíferos no Cerrado são escassos. Este estudo objetivou verificar a composição da comunidade de pequenos mamíferos em relação à utilização do estrato vertical em áreas de floresta de galeria e cerradão no sudoeste do Brasil. As capturas foram realizadas durante os meses de agosto/setembro, novembro/dezembro de 2006 e fevereiro/março, maio/junho de 2007. As armadilhas foram dispostas em três transecções com 10 estações de captura cada, sendo que cada estação compreendeu uma armadilhas no solo, uma no subbosque (2,0 a 3,0 m de altura) e uma no dossel (8 a 10 m) em cada ambiente, totalizando 60 estações de capturas. Com um esforço de 3600 armadilhas-noite foram capturadas 11 espécies de pequenos mamíferos, que estiveram distribuídas diferencialmente em relação aos ambientes e à utilização do estrato vertical. As espécies apresentaram forte segregação de hábitat, onde apenas Rhipidomys macrurus esteve presente nos dois ambientes. Quanto ao uso do estrato vertical, pela análise de Correspondência, Caluromys philander foi a única espécie que se destacou no dossel, Cryptonanus agricolai, Marmosa murina, e Oecomys bicolor, e se destacaram no sub-bosque, e Gracilinanus agilis e Nectomys rattus se destacaram ao nível do solo. Em ralação aos parâmetros faunísticos e ambientais formaram-se dois grupos , onde C. agricolai e G. agilis estiveram associados ao cerradão, estação seca e número de árvores e C. philander, M. murina, N. rattus e O. bicolor estiveram associados a floresta de galeria, estratificação, número de ramos e número de lianas. O bioma Cerrado apresenta distintas faunas de pequenos mamíferos associadas às duas formações florestais: floresta de galeria e o cerradão. A utilização de armadilhas em diferentes estratos aumenta a riqueza de pequenos mamíferos, mostrando que as espécies estão distribuídas em diferentes camadas verticais da floresta, utilizando a complexidade do ambiente o que possibilita a coexistência de um número maior de espécies.

Les ondes internes sont omniprésentes dans les océans. Cette thèse analyse le cycle de vie des ondes internes et l'impact du déferlement de ces ondes sur le mélange turbulent dans deux bassins océaniques, aux caractéristiques contrastées, l'Arctique et l'Indien. Ces deux régions sont en effet aux antipodes de la circulation thermohaline avec l'océan Arctique lieu de formations d'eaux denses et l'Océan Indien région d'upwelling d'eaux denses. L'analyse de données de mouillage recueillies dans le Sud-Ouest de l'Océan Indien au niveau d'une dorsale océanique révèle la présence d'une forte marée interne. Cette marée interne montre une focalisation de l'énergie sous forme de 'rayons' dont la propagation est fortement influencée par les structures de méso-échelle. Malgré ce fort signal de marée interne, nous mettons en évidence la contribution majeure des ondes internes de fréquence proche-inertielle au mélange turbulent. Aux hautes latitudes l'analyse des séries temporelles recueillies au cours de trois printemps consécutifs dans le Storfjord, un fjord Arctique dans l'archipel Svalbard, montre la forte variabilité des ondes en fonction de la stratification et par conséquent un impact variable de ces ondes en terme de mélange turbulent. Les flux de chaleur diffusifs induits par le déferlement de ces ondes sont enfin estimés dans ces deux régions, permettant ainsi de replacer ces résultats dans le contexte global de la circulation thermohaline. / Internal waves are ubiquitous in the ocean, and play a key role in the global overturning circulation. This thesis analyzes the life cycle of internal waves in two distinct ocean basins: the Arctic and Indian Oceans. Hydrographic and velocity data are used to study the generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal waves in these two ocean basins. In the Indian Ocean, an area of mixing-driven upwelling, mooring data reveal the presence of a strong internal tide propagating as tidal beams above the Southwest Indian Ridge in the Indian Ocean basin. These tidal beams show a strong vertical structure, and their path of propagation is highly dependent on the mesoscale activity in the region. Despite this strong internal tide signal, however, mixing in the region is dominated by inertial internal waves. On the other side of the globe, in a region of deep water formation, shipboard data from four short time series from three consecutive springs in Storfjorden, an Arctic fjord in the Svalbard Archipelago, reveal a link between the vertical structure of the stratification profile and mixing in the Arctic. These environmental conditions, the changing mesoscale in the Indian Ocean, and the changing stratification in the Arctic Ocean, greatly impact the generation, propagation, and dissipation of internal waves, and subsequent turbulent mixing in theses two ocean basins.

Abstract There is a need to identify patients with an increased risk of dying after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), because sudden cardiac death (SCD) and potentially fatal ventricular tachyarrhythmias can be prevented by an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or in some cases, with aggressively optimized drug or revascularization therapy. The present study was designed to study the predictive power of non-invasive risk markers and all-cause, cardiac and arrhythmic mortality in 700 consecutive post-AMI patients discharged alive with optimal medication according to contemporary guidelines. Detrended fluctuation analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) predicted all-cause mortality beyond clinical variables as well as left ventricular function in post-AMI patients. The predictive power of the short-term scaling exponent α1 was higher than that of the traditional indexes of HRV (for α1 < 0.65, the risk ratio (RR) in multivariate analysis was 5.1, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.9-8.9; p < 0.001). HRV results from a conventional 24-hour electrocardiographic (ECG) recording system differed significantly when compared to a system with a higher sampling frequency. The difference was generally more pronounced in post-AMI patients than in healthy subjects. The presence of sustained T-wave alternans during a predischarge exercise test after AMI was not a marker of mortality. However, the inability to perform an exercise test or to reach the heart rate of 105 beats/min predicted independently all-cause (RR 9.3, 95% CI 2.0-43.3, p < 0.01) and cardiac mortality (RR 11.1, 95% CI 2.4-50.8, p < 0.01). High levels of natriuretic peptides were associated with both sudden and non-sudden cardiac mortality. B-type natriuretic peptide provided more specific independent information on the risk for subsequent SCD (RR 3.9, 95% CI 1.2-12.3, p < 0.05) than non-SCD. SCDs occurred mainly more than 18 months after AMI, and the proportion of SCD was less than 40% of all cardiac deaths. Common arrhythmia markers such as the presence of ventricular premature beats or episodes of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia during ambulatory recordings, the time domain parameters of HRV, baroreflex sensitivity, QT dispersion and QRS complex duration provided only limited predictive power on the risk of SCD or arrhythmic events in patients with optimized beta-blocking therapy. Many risk variables previously considered to predict SCD were better predictors of non-SCD than SCD. Conclusions: 1. The epidemiological pattern of SCD was different from that reported previously. 2. Many arrhythmia risk markers provided only limited information on the risk of SCD. 3. Short-term fractal scaling exponent α1 provided potentially useful information on the risk for all-cause mortality, and BNP was useful in predicting the risk of SCD in a post-AMI population with optimized therapy.

How do voters navigate the intersection between democracy and capitalism? Citizens have the opportunity to directly decide upon policies that shape their state's economy through market regulatory ballot measures; however, the role of voters in this key intersection and policy making-mechanism has been largely overlooked. Models of reasoning and decision-making in the voting literature have primarily developed from rational choice theory. These models identify conditions under which self-interest and partisanship influence voter choice and policy attitude formation. To extend this literature to voter reasoning on market regulatory measures, I examined how variation in voter choice and reasoning corresponded with variation in social indicators of self-interest and partisanship, both of which are foundational individual-level processes for capitalism and democracy, respectively. In order to carry out this analysis I conducted semi-structured interviews with 120 respondents about how they voted on four market regulatory ballot measures that appeared on the Arizona state ballot from 2008-2012 related to narcotic decriminalization and medicalization, education funding, immigration and labor markets, and consumer protection. Drawing from contemporary models of voter reasoning, I selected self-interest and partisanship as independent variables for this analysis and then examined how variation in these variables corresponded with variation in voter choice. I subsequently used my qualitative data to investigate how voters used narratives of self-interest and partisan values to reason about these four market regulatory ballot measures. I supplemented my qualitative analysis by investigating voter use of beliefs from non-partisan economic philosophies in their reasoning on these measures. To my knowledge, voter reasoning related to market regulatory ballot measures has yet to be studied and therefore my analysis required holding key factors (such as gender, race, and ethnicity) constant in order to limit sources of variation in voter choice and reasoning.

Noncompliance to treatment allocation is likely to complicate estimation of causal effects in clinical trials. The ubiquitous nonrandom phenomenon of noncompliance renders per-protocol and as- treated analyses or even simple regression adjustments for noncompliance inadequate for causal inference. For survival data, several specialist methods have been developed when noncompliance is related to risk. The Causal Accelerated Life Model (CALM) allows time-dependent departures from randomized treatment in either arm and relates each observed event time to a potential event time that would have been observed if the control treatment had been given throughout the trial. Alternatively, the structural Proportional Hazards (C-Prophet) model accounts for all-or-nothing noncompliance in the treatment arm only while the CHARM estimator allows time-dependent departures from randomized treatment by considering survival outcome as a sequence of binary outcomes to provide an 'approximate' overall hazard ratio estimate which is adjusted for compliance. The problem of efficacy estimation is compounded for two-active treatment trials (additional noncompliance) where the ITT estimate provides a biased estimator for the true hazard ratio even under homogeneous treatment effects assumption. Using plausible arm-specific predictors of compliance, principal stratification methods can be applied to obtain principal effects for each stratum. The present work applies the above methods to data from the Esprit trials study which was conducted to ascertain whether or not unopposed oestrogen (hormone replacement therapy - HRT) reduced the risk of further cardiac events in postmenopausal women who survive a first myocardial infarction. We use statistically designed simulation studies to evaluate the performance of these methods in terms of bias and 95% confidence interval coverage. We also apply a principal stratification method to adjust for noncompliance in two treatment arms trial originally developed for binary data for survival analysis in terms of causal risk ratio. In a Bayesian framework, we apply the method to Esprit data to account for noncompliance in both treatment arms and estimate principal effects. We apply statistically designed simulation studies to evaluate the performance of the method in terms of bias in the causal effect estimates for each stratum. ITT analysis of the Esprit data showed the effects of taking HRT tablets was not statistically significantly different from placebo for both all cause mortality and myocardial reinfarction outcomes. Average compliance rate for HRT treatment was 43% and compliance rate decreased as the study progressed. CHARM and C-Prophet methods produced similar results but CALM performed best for Esprit: suggesting HRT would reduce risk of death by 50%. Simulation studies comparing the methods suggested that while both C-Prophet and CHARM methods performed equally well in terms of bias, the CALM method performed best in terms of both bias and 95% confidence interval coverage albeit with the largest RMSE. The principal stratification method failed for the Esprit study possibly due to the strong distribution assumption implicit in the method and lack of adequate compliance information in the data which produced large 95% credible intervals for the principal effect estimates. For moderate value of sensitivity parameter, principal stratification results suggested compliance with HRT tablets relative to placebo would reduce risk of mortality by 43% among the most compliant. Simulation studies on performance of this method showed narrower corresponding mean 95% credible intervals corresponding to the the causal risk ratio estimates for this subgroup compared to other strata. However, the results were sensitive to the unknown sensitivity parameter.