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Cette thèse applique la théorie des prospects et la théorie du regret à l’étude sur la performance des actions et à expliquer une anomalie du marché connue appelé l’effet momentum. Cette thèse propose un modèle théorique qui lie les facteurs comportementaux à la performance des actions et à l’effet momentum, et ensuite réalise des tests empiriques pour examiner le modèle théorique. Dans le chapitre 2, le modèle est établi sur un concept des gains/pertes potentiels, qui indiquent si un investisseur se trouve actuellement dans une situation gagnante ou perdante. Ensuite, le modèle montre que les investisseurs sont très réticents à vendre leurs stocks dans une situation des grands gains ou des grandes pertes. Les chapitres 3 et 4 effectuent des tests empiriques sur le modèle des gains/pertes potentiels. L'échantillon des tests comprend tous les stocks de NYSE et l'AMEX de l’année 1982 à 2012. Les tests sont en mesure de confirmer l'influence des gains/pertes potentiels sur les rendements des actions. En outre, une stratégie de coût nul d’Extrémité moins Moyen (EMM), basée sur le modèle théorique, est documentée pour être rentable après contrôlée pour des risques. Dans le chapitre 5, le modèle des gains/pertes potentiels est développé dans une version dynamique. Il suggère que l'influence des gains/pertes potentiels pourrait persister pendant une période de intermédiaire à long terme, et génère une tendance à la hausse de la performance pour les actions avec un grand gain/perte potentiel. Les tests empiriques dans ce chapitre se concentrent sur l'évolution de série temporelle des rendements. Les tests montrent que les actions avec un grand gain/perte potentiel ont une plus forte tendance à la hausse. Le chapitre 6 applique les résultats du chapitre précédent pour expliquer l'effet momentum. La tendance à la hausse correspond à une auto-corrélation positive des rendements, ce qui est l'une des sources qui contribuent au profit de momentum. Les tests empiriques dans ce chapitre regardent la similitude entre la stratégie de momentum et les gains/pertes potentiels, et examinent également la corrélation entre le profit de momentum et le profit de la stratégie EMM. Les tests montrent que des gains/pertes potentiels pourraient contribuer à l'effet momentum, mais ne sont pas la seule source. L'effet momentum peut être le résultat d'une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs complexes. / This dissertation applies the prospect theory and the regret theory to the study on the stock performance and to explain one well-known market anomaly called the momentum effect. The dissertation proposes a theoretical model that links the behavior factors to stock performance and the momentum effect, and performed empirical test to examine the theoretical model. In chapter 2, the model is established on the concept of the potential gain/loss, which indicates if an investor is currently at a winning or a losing position. The model then shows that the investors are highly reluctant to sell their stocks in a large gain or in a large loss situation. The chapter 3 and 4 perform empirical tests on the model of potential gain/loss. The test sample includes all stocks in NYSE and AMEX from 1982 to 2012. The tests are able to confirm the influence of the potential gain/loss on stock returns. Moreover, a zero-cost Extremity minus Middle (EMM) strategy based on the theoretical model is documented to be profitable after controlling for risks. In chapter 5, the model of potential gain/loss is developed into a dynamic version. It suggests that the influence of a potential gain/loss could persist over an intermediate to long term, and generates an upward trend in performance for stocks with large potential gain/loss. The empirical tests in this chapter focus on the time serial evolution of returns. The tests show that stocks with large potential gain/loss have a stronger upward trend. The chapter 6 applies the results from the previous chapter to explain the momentum effect. The upward trend corresponds to a positive return autocorrelation, which is one of the sources that contribute to the momentum profit. The empirical tests in this chapter look into the similarity between the momentum strategy and the potential gain/loss, and also examine the correlation between the momentum profit and the profit from the EMM strategy. Tests show that the potential gain/loss could contribute to the momentum effect, but is not the only source. The momentum effect could be a result of a combination of many complex factors.

Title: Analysis of Climate Model Outputs Author: RNDr. Zuzana Chládová E-mail: zuzana.chladova@gmail.com Department: Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague Supervisor: RNDr. Aleš Raidl, Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail address: ales.raidl@mff.cuni.cz Consultant: doc. RNDr. Jaroslava Kalvová, CSc. Regional climate models are currently the most important tools regularly used for downscaling outputs of global climate models. This analysis compares control and future runs of the global climate models HadCM3, ECHAM5/OPYC3 and ARPÉGE/OPA and the regional climate models RCAO, RCA3, HIRHAM4, HIRHAM5 and ALADIN- CLIMATE/CZ with observed data and CRU data for the Czech Republic. In the period 1961-1990, the global climate models underestimated the air temperature in comparison with corresponding virtual time series representing real data; mean annual courses and variance of the temperature, on the other hand, were simulated satisfactorily. The results of the regional climate models showed overestimation of the model temperature in winter season, while in other seasons the model temperatures corresponded better with real values and the results of simulation were generally more accurate in comparison with global climate models. Concerning...

[pt] Um dos principais problemas em manufatura é como ajustar um processo de produção que não está obtendo uma performance desejada. O intuito é fazer com que o parâmetro do processo volte a assumir um valor alvo requerido. As técnicas de controle estatístico de processo (CEP) são amplamente utilizadas na indústria para monitorar processos e, conseqüentemente, para melhoria da qualidade. Os gráficos de controle para variáveis mais freqüentemente utilizados para monitorar a média e a variabilidade do processo são os gráficos de Shewhart, os gráficos de CUSUM e os gráficos de EWMA. Porém, as considerações básicas para se utilizar um gráfico de Shewhart são que os dados gerados pelo processo sejam independentes e identicamente distribuídos (IID). Quando a hipótese de independência dos dados não é satisfeita, tais gráficos não funcionam bem, pois fornecerão resultados não confiáveis na forma de excesso de alarme falsos, ou seja, conduz a interpretações equivocadas acerca do processo e gera custos adicionais de controle. Esta tese utiliza uma formulação bayesiana, o Modelo Linear Dinâmico de Harrison & Stevens (MLD-HS) para o monitoramento da média de processos cujas observações podem ser modeladas como um processo ARMA (1,1). O Fator de Bayes acumulado foi utilizado na detecção de desvios na média de um dado processo. Posteriormente, os resultados obtidos pelo modelo proposto, que foi nomeado como MLD-CEP, são comparados aos resultados obtidos por Lu & Reynolds (2001). Os resultados obtidos pelo MLD-CEP sugerem bom desempenho na detecção de alterações na média em processos de baixo a moderadamente alto nível de autocorrelação. / [en] Monitoring a manufacturing process is an important subject in the industries currently. Statistical process control techniques are widely used for process monitoring and quality improvement. Control charts for variables more often used to control both process mean and variance are Shewhart control charts, CUSUM charts and EWMA charts. However, the basic assumptions to use a Shewhart chart are: independent and identically distributed observations (IID); but,autocorrelation may be present in many process, and may have a strong impact nthe properties of control charts. This thesis used a bayesian formulation, Dynamic Linear Model of Harrison & Stevens (MLD-HS), for monitoring the process mean for the situation in which observations from the process can be modeled as an ARMA(1,1). The cumulative Bayes factor has been used for detecting shifts on the process mean. After that, the results obtained by MLD-CEP are compared with the results obtained by Lu & Reynolds (2001). The MLD-CEP results indicate a good performance in detecting shifts in the process mean.

Macrophytes are an integral component of lake littoral zones and play an irreplaceable role in maintaining the ecological balance of wetlands. Recent research has highlighted the role of lake-scale environmental factors (or “filters”) and catchment- and/or landscape-scale processes in explaining variation in macrophyte communities across different scales. In this work, the effects of land-use and connectivity on macrophyte communities were explored at two contrasting spatial scales (i.e. local catchment scale and topographic catchment scale). At the local catchment scale, the results revealed strong scale-dependency. The effects of land use on macrophyte richness were most apparent at fine spatial scales (within 0.5 to 1 km) and significantly outweighed the importance of hydrology. In terms of growth form composition, the effects of hydrological connectivity were stronger than those of land use, with the greatest effect observed at an intermediate distance (~ 5 km) from the lake. The study on the hydrologically-connected lake pairs indicated that environmental filters were more influential in explaining species turnover than lake connectivity. Interestingly, geographical connectivity explained more of the variability in species turnover than hydrological connectivity. Moreover, the relative importance of environmental filters and lake connectivity to species turnover was very sensitive to the degree of human disturbance. The multi-scale interaction analyses indicated the effect of lake alkalinity on macrophyte composition is strongly influenced by catchment scale variables including hydrological features and land use intensity. The turnover in macrophyte composition in response to variability in alkalinity was stronger in catchments with low lake and stream density and weaker in catchments with a more highly developed hydrological network. Lake abiotic variables were found to have more influence on macrophyte composition in lowland catchments with a higher intensity of human disturbance. Moreover, the catchment-scale factors promoting the establishment of different communities were found to vary between catchments depending on lake type, the degree of environmental heterogeneity and hydrological connectivity.

Submitted by RAFAEL RUBIATI SCALVENZI (rafaelrubiati@yahoo.com) on 2018-08-23T14:58:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rafael Rubiati.pdf: 3684917 bytes, checksum: 933c9cd1b163eaf62189c9f2bcfcdd2f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Elza Mitiko Sato null (elzasato@ibilce.unesp.br) on 2018-08-23T19:34:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 scalvenzi_rr_me_sjrp_.pdf: 3684917 bytes, checksum: 933c9cd1b163eaf62189c9f2bcfcdd2f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-23T19:34:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 scalvenzi_rr_me_sjrp_.pdf: 3684917 bytes, checksum: 933c9cd1b163eaf62189c9f2bcfcdd2f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-20 / A área na qual a música está inserida requer, para sua compreensão, considerável abstração. Neste âmbito, a análise matemático-computacional possui papel importante, principalmente para planejar a interatividade entre aluno e computador, potencializando o aprendizado musical. Embora um número considerável de estudos em diferentes contextos sejam dedicados à classificação das estruturas sonoras, os procedimentos de análise em um grande conjunto de sinais podem tornar-se uma tarefa difícil e exaustiva. Diante do exposto, este trabalho tem como objetivo a proposição e a implementação de um método capaz de reconhecer e classificar sinais musicais em tempo real, visando auxiliar os aprendizes. No método proposto, um conjunto relevante de eventos musicais é inspecionado por meio da análise de multirresolução baseada na Transformada Wavelet-Packet, escolhida em função da característica multidimensional encontrada na música, a qual permite isolar diferentes eventos musicais em níveis de decomposição wavelet distintos. Apoiado por um processo de autocorrelação e uma rede neural artificial, cada padrão sônico é associado ao seu respectivo evento musical. Testes envolvendo centenas de sinais permitiram obter uma acurácia quase plena com um tempo relativamente bastante pequeno de análise em função da baixa ordem de complexidade computacional do algoritmo implementado, reafirmando a sua aplicabilidade / Music belongs to an area which requires a considerable piece of abstraction for its understanding. In this domain, computational and mathematical analyses play an important role, particularly for planning human-machine interaction and enhancing learning. Although a considerable number of studies in different musical contexts are dedicated to the classification of the structures present in sound signals, the inspection of long clips is a challenge. Thus, this work proposes and implements a method capable of identifying and classifying musical signals in real-time, helping music students. Specifically, multiresolution analysis using the Wavelet-Packet Transform is adopted, allowing for different musical events to be isolated in distinct wavelet levels of decomposition. Based on an autocorrelation and an artificial neural network, each sonic pattern is associated with a respective musical event. Tests using hundreds of music clips exhibit almost full accuracy with relatively very short time consumption as a function of the algorithm low level of computational complexity, reassuring its applicability.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:35:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-02-23Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:46:47Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 calgaro_hf_dr_ilha.pdf: 1024535 bytes, checksum: 534d1a478ba9f7e0da680f76b7d7f267 (MD5) / Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) / Com o surgimento de áreas degradadas por ações antrópicas, os atributos físicos e químicos do solo e os caracteres silviculturais, passaram a ter importância quanto ao entendimento do processo sucessional das espécies arbóreas e no planejamento de recomposição da paisagem. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a distribuição de espécies arbóreas em áreas com diferentes níveis de perturbação antrópica, promover a compreensão da relação com os atributos químicos e físicos do solo; avaliar caráteres silviculturais e a relação como possível fator definidor do tipo vegetacional existente, para fins de integrar a programa de conservação genética in situ. O trabalho foi desenvolvido em área da Fazenda Experimental de Pesquisa e Extensão (FEPE) da UNESP de Ilha Solteira, no município de Selvíria - MS. Por meio de transecto foram demarcadas 64 parcelas equidistantes de 50 m com dimensões de 10x10 m. Sendo: 29 parcelas em área altamente antropizada (AAA); cinco em área medianamente antropizada (AMA); 15 em área pouco antropizada (APA); seis na mata ciliar do córrego da Véstia (Mata ciliar) e nove na Reserva legal. As amostras de solo foram coletadas em quatro profundidades (0,0 a 0,10 m; 0,10 a 0,20 m; 0,20 a 0,30 m e 0,30 a 0,40 m) para análise dos atributos físicos e duas profundidades (0,0 a 0,20 m e 0,20 a 0,40 m) para os atributos químicos além da avaliação dos caracteres silviculturais, como altura, diâmetro a altura do peito (DAP) e forma, e da autocorrelação espacial. Com base nos resultados conclui-se que: os atributos físicos e químicos do solo, associados ao nível de antropização e conservação das áreas, estão influenciando a ocorrência natural, diversidade de espécies e desenvolvimento dos indivíduos arbóreos; a altura, DAP e Forma, são bons indicadores para avaliar o crescimento das espécies arbóreas e relacioná-los aos... / With the emergence of areas degraded by human actions, the physical and chemical soil properties and forestry traits, have gained importance in understanding the process of succession of tree species and restoration of landscape. This study aimed to evaluate the distribution of tree species in areas with different levels of human disturbance, promote understanding of the relationship with the chemical and physical properties of soil; evaluate forestry charatcer relationship as possible and defining factor of the existing vegetation type, for to integrate the program of genetic conservation in situ. The work was developed at the Experimental Farm Research and Extension (FEPE) from UNESP of Ilha Solteira, Selvíria - MS. Through transect were marked 64 plots of 50 m equidistant with dimensions of 10x10 m. Where: 29 plots was located in area highly impacted (AAA), five in moderately disturbed area (AMA) in 15 in little disturbed area (APA); six in Riparian forest river of Véstia (Riparian Forest) and nine in the Legal Reserve. Soil samples were collected at two depths (0,0-0,20 m and 0,20-0,40 m) for the analysis of chemical and four depths (0,0-0,10 m, 0,10-0,20 m, 0,20-0,30 m and 0,30-0,40 m) for physical attributes; assessment of forestry traits such as height, diameter at breast height and shape, and spatial autocorrelation. Based on the results concluded that: the physical and chemical soil properties associated with the level of human disturbance and conservation areas, are influencing the natural occurrence, species diversity and development of the individual trees; the height, diameter at breast height and shape are good indicators to assess the growth of tree species and relate them to physical and chemical attributes of soil; the AAA, and the AMA to show similarity of soil physical properties; APA and Legal reserve have higher natural occurrence, number of individuals and number ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Intelligenta Transportsystem (ITS) utgör idag en central del i arbetet att försöka höja kvaliteten i transportnätverken, genom att exempelvis ge stöd i arbetet att leda trafik i realtid och att ge trafikanter större möjlighet att ta informerade beslut gällandes sin körning. Kortsiktig prediktion av trafikdata, däribland trafikvolym, spelar en central roll för de tjänster ITS-systemen levererar. Den starka teknologiska utvecklingen de senaste decennierna har bidragit till en ökad möjlighet till att använda datadriven modellering för att utföra kortsiktiga prediktioner av trafikdata. Säsongsbaserad ARIMA (SARIMA) är en av de vanligaste datadrivna modellerna för modellering och predicering av trafikdata, vilken använder mönster i historisk data för att predicera framtida värden. Vid modellering med SARIMA behöver en mängd beslut tas gällandes de data som används till modelleringen. Exempel på sådana beslut är hur stor mängd träningsdata som ska användas, vilka dagar som ska ingå i träningsmängden och vilket aggregationsintervall som ska användas. Därtill utförs nästintill enbart enstegsprediktioner i tidigare studier av SARIMA-modellering av trafikdata, trots att modellen stödjer predicering av flera steg in i framtiden. Besluten gällandes de parametrar som nämnts saknar ofta teoretisk motivering i tidigare studier, samtidigt som det är högst troligt att dessa beslut påverkar träffsäkerheten i prediktionerna. Därför syftar den här studien till att utföra en känslighetsanalys av dessa parametrar, för att undersöka hur olika värden påverkar precisionen vid prediktion av trafikvolym. I studien utvecklades en modell, med vilken data kunde importeras, preprocesseras och sedan modelleras med hjälp av SARIMA. Studien använde trafikvolymdata som insamlats under januari och februari 2014, med hjälp av kameror placerade på riksväg 40 i utkanten av Göteborg. Efter differentiering av data används såväl autokorrelations- och partiell autokorrelationsgrafer som informationskriterier för att definiera lämpliga SARIMA-modeller, med vilka prediktioner kunde göras. Med definierade modeller genomfördes ett experiment, där åtta unika scenarion testades för att undersöka hur prediktionsprecisionen av trafikvolym påverkades av olika mängder träningsdata, vilka dagar som ingick i träningsdata, längden på aggregationsintervallen och hur många tidssteg in i framtiden som predicerades. För utvärdering av träffsäkerheten i prediktionerna användes MAPE, RMSE och MAE. Resultaten som experimentet visar är att definierade SARIMA-modeller klarar att predicera aktuell data med god precision oavsett vilka värden som sattes för de variabler som studerades. Resultaten visade dock indikationer på att en träningsvolym omfattande fem dagar kan generera en modell som ger mer träffsäkra prediktioner än när volymer om 15 eller 30 dagar används, något som kan ha stor praktisk betydelse vid realtidsanalys. Därtill indikerar resultaten att samtliga veckodagar bör ingå i träningsdatasetet när dygnsvis säsongslängd används, att SARIMA-modelleringen hanterar aggregationsintervall om 60 minuter bättre än 30 eller 15 minuter samt att enstegsprediktioner är mer träffsäkra än när horisonter om en eller två dagar används. Studien har enbart fokuserat på inverkan av de fyra parametrarna var för sig och inte om en kombinerad effekt finns att hitta. Det är något som föreslås för framtida studier, liksom att vidare utreda huruvida en mindre träningsvolym kan fortsätta att generera mer träffsäkra prediktioner även för andra perioder under året. / Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) today are a key part of the effort to try to improve the quality of transport networks, for example by supporting the real-time traffic management and giving road users greater opportunity to take informed decisions regarding their driving. Short-term prediction of traffic data, including traffic volume, plays a central role in the services delivered by ITS systems. The strong technological development has contributed to an increased opportunity to use data-driven modeling to perform short-term predictions of traffic data. Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) is one of the most common models for modeling and predicting traffic data, which uses patterns in historical data to predict future values. When modeling with SARIMA, a variety of decisions are required regarding he data used. Examples of such decisions are the amount of training data to be used, the days to be included in training data and the aggregation interval to be used. In addition, one-step predictions are performed most often in previous studies of SARIMA modeling of traffic data, although the model supports multi-step prediction into the future. Often, in previous studies, decisions are made concerning mentioned variables without theoretical motivation, while it is highly probable that these decisions affect the accuracy of the predictions. Therefore, this study aims at performing a sensitivity analysis of these parameters to investigate how different values affect the accuracy of traffic volume prediction. The study developed a model with which data could be imported, preprocessed and then modeled using a SARIMA model. Traffic volume data was used, which was collected during January and February 2014, using cameras located on highway 40 on the outskirts of Gothenburg. After differentiation of data, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation graphs as well as information criteria are used to define appropriate SARIMA models, with which predictions could be made. With defined models, an experiment was conducted in which eight unique scenarios were tested to investigate how the prediction accuracy of traffic volume was influenced by different amount of exercise data, what days was included in training data, length of aggregation intervals, and how many steps into the future were predicted. To evaluate the accuracy of the predictions, MAPE, RMSE and MAE were used. The results of the experiment show that developed SARIMA models are able to predict current data with good precision no matter what values were set for the variables studied. However, the results showed indications that a training volume of five days can generate a model that provides more accurate predictions than when using 15 or 30-day volumes, which can be of great practical importance in real-time analysis. In addition, the results indicate that all weekdays should be included in the training data set when daily seasonality is used, SARIMA modeling handles aggregation intervals of 60 minutes better than 30 or 15 minutes, and that one-step predictions are more accurate than when one or two days horizons are used. The study has focused only on the impact of the four parameters separately and not if a combined effect could be found. Further research is proposed for investigating if combined effects could be found, as well as further investigating whether a lesser training volume can continue to generate more accurate predictions even for other periods of the year.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / This study employed different autocorrelation functions and Maclaurin series expansions in the derivation of expressions describing the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. These expressions have the same functional form, but are described in terms of different numerical coefficients. The values obtained for the numerical coefficients were used in a Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model to simulate the dispersion of contaminants in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The simulation results were compared with concentration data observed in the Copenhagen experiment. The good performance of the parameterization and analysis through statistical indices showed that the mathematical relationships that describe the turbulent dissipation rate present an uncertainty. The analysis developed in this study indicates that there is no a universal functional form describing the dissipation rate of turbulent energy. / Neste estudo foram empregadas diferentes funções de autocorrelação e expansões em série de Maclaurin na derivação de expressões que descrevem a taxa de dissipação da energia cinética turbulenta. Estas expressões apresentam a mesma forma funcional, porém são descritas em termos de diferentes coeficientes numéricos. Os valores obtidos para os coeficientes numéricos foram empregados em um modelo de dispersão estocástico Lagrangiano para simular a dispersão de contaminantes na Camada Limite Planetária (CLP). Os resultados das simulações foram comparados com dados de concentração do experimento de Copenhagen. O bom desempenho da parametrização e a análise através de índices estatísticos permitiram concluir que as relações matemáticas que descrevem a taxa de dissipação da turbulenta, apresentam uma incerteza. A análise desenvolvida nesse estudo permite concluir que não existe uma forma funcional universal descrevendo a taxa de dissipação de energia turbulenta.

This chapter reexamines ceramic production, and other possibly specialized activities, at Conchopata, a recently excavated Middle Horizon urban center in the Ayacucho Valley. Drawing on the exhaustive GIS database compiled by the Conchopata Project, we employ normalized choropleth maps and localized spatial autocorrelation statistics to examine the distributions of four categories of ceramic production implements — ceramic molds, polishers, scrapers, and pulidores — and contrast them with the distributions of artifacts related to lithic manufacturing. We find high concentrations of artifacts suggestive of both types of production to coincide with each other and to correlate with high concentrations of other kinds of materials, such as botanical remains and animal bones. Consequently, areas of the site with high densities of ceramic manufacturing tools are unlikely tohave been ceramic workshops, but more plausibly trash concentrations containing all manner of remains in high densities. Indiscriminate dumping of refuse stemming from various craft production activities as well as domestic waste is indicative of non-specialized discard behavior and, by inference, of non-specialized, domestic production. The fancy ceramics whose spread across much of the Central Andes constitutes the defining feature of the Middle Horizon do not appear to have been manufactured in a V. Gordon Childe-style urban setting associated with spatially differentiated and class-structured economic interdependency. It is unlikely that they imply the spread of this kind of urbanism during the Middle Horizon, and new, Andean models of Wari political organization, craft production, and interregional interaction must be explored by archaeologists. / El presente capítulo reexamina la producción de cerámica y otras actividades, posiblemente especializadas, en Conchopata,un centro urbano recientemente excavado del Horizonte Medio en el valle de Ayacucho. Empleando la exhaustiva base de datos SIG recopilada por el Proyecto Arqueológico Conchopata examinamos mapas normalizados de coropletas y coeficientes de autocorrelación espacial local para entender las distribuciones de cuatro categorías de implementos de producción alfarera—moldes cerámicos, alisadores, pulidores y raspadores— y las contrastamos con las de vestigios de talla lítica. Encontramos que las altas concentraciones de artefactos relacionados a manufactura cerámica y talla lítica coinciden en el espacio y también están correlacionadas con altas concentraciones de otros materiales, tales como restos botánicos y huesos de animales. Por lo tanto, las áreas del sitio con altas densidades de implementos alfareros probablemente no fueron talleres cerámicos sino concentraciones de basura con altas densidades de desechos de todo tipo. La descarga indiscriminada de desechos de diversas actividades productivas, incluyendo basura doméstica, indirectamente indica una conducta no especializada de eliminación de basura y por inferencia, de actividades de producción no especializadas. La cerámica elaborada, cuya distribución a través de gran parte de los Andes centrales constituye el rasgo definidor del Horizonte Medio, no parece haberse manufacturado dentro del tipo de contexto urbano visualizado por V. Gordon Childe, asociado con interdependencia socio económica de poblaciones económicamente especializadas y divididas en clases sociales. Es improbable que implique la propagación de este tipo de urbanismo durante el Horizonte Medio. Los estudiosos de este periodo deben explorar nuevos modelos alternativos andinos de la organización política, la producción artesanal y la interacción interregional.