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Technician level needs and skills development guidelines for the South African nuclear energy industry / Titus P. Mampala.Nampala, Titus Pendukeni January 2012 (has links)
The increasing demand for electrical energy to bring about development and social change has brought about renewed interest in the use of nuclear power as one of the sources of electrical energy. The nuclear power industry has had a few decades of low activity due to previous accidents which turned the public perception against the use of nuclear as an electrical power source. The low activity has resulted in the shortage of nuclear skills as the skill previously available is now aged and about to reach retirement.
The South African Government has recently announced its commitment to having nuclear in the energy mix. This will require construction of new nuclear power plants. This research arises from the need to understand whether the required human capital will be available, looking specifically at technician level in the nuclear energy industry.
The main research goal of the study was to find what training and development initiatives are currently being used in industry and what needs to be in place to ensure that the industry is ready for the nuclear new-build. The researcher than proposes training and development initiatives that should be put in place to meet the demand that will be created by the nuclear new-build. / Thesis (MSc (Engineering Sciences in Nuclear Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.
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Technician level needs and skills development guidelines for the South African nuclear energy industry / Titus P. Mampala.Nampala, Titus Pendukeni January 2012 (has links)
The increasing demand for electrical energy to bring about development and social change has brought about renewed interest in the use of nuclear power as one of the sources of electrical energy. The nuclear power industry has had a few decades of low activity due to previous accidents which turned the public perception against the use of nuclear as an electrical power source. The low activity has resulted in the shortage of nuclear skills as the skill previously available is now aged and about to reach retirement.
The South African Government has recently announced its commitment to having nuclear in the energy mix. This will require construction of new nuclear power plants. This research arises from the need to understand whether the required human capital will be available, looking specifically at technician level in the nuclear energy industry.
The main research goal of the study was to find what training and development initiatives are currently being used in industry and what needs to be in place to ensure that the industry is ready for the nuclear new-build. The researcher than proposes training and development initiatives that should be put in place to meet the demand that will be created by the nuclear new-build. / Thesis (MSc (Engineering Sciences in Nuclear Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.
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Mesure du capital réglementaire par des modèles de risque de marché / Measure of capital requirement by market risk modelsKourouma, Lancine 11 May 2012 (has links)
Suite à la crise financière et économique de 2008, il a été constaté sur le portefeuille de négociation des banques un montant de capital réglementaire significativement inférieur aux pertes réelles. Pour comprendre les causes de cette insuffisance de capital réglementaire, il nous a paru important d'évaluer la fiabilité des modèles de mesure de risque de marché et de proposer des méthodologies de stress test pour la gestion des risques extrêmes. L'objectif est de mesurer le capital réglementaire sur un portefeuille de négociation composé d'actions et de matières premières par la mesure de la Value at Risk (VaR) et l'Expected Shortfall. Pour réaliser cet objectif, nous avons utilisé le modèle Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) et deux modèles internes utilisés par les banques : méthode de simulation historique et modèle de la loi normale. Une première évaluation de la fiabilité effectuée sur les trois modèles de risque sous l'hypothèse de volatilité constante, montre que les modèles internes des banques et le modèle GPD ne mesurent pas correctement le risque du portefeuille d'étude pendant les périodes de crise. Néanmoins, le modèle GPD est fiable en période de faible volatilité mais avec une forte surestimation du risque réel ; cela peut conduire les banques à bloquer plus de fonds propres réglementaires qu'il est nécessaire. Une seconde évaluation de la fiabilité des modèles de risque a été effectuée sous l'hypothèse du changement de la volatilité et par la prise en compte de l'effet asymétrique des rentabilités financières. Le modèle GPD s'est révélé le plus fiable quelles que soient les conditions des marchés. La prise en compte du changement de la volatilité a amélioré la performance des modèles internes des banques. L'intégration des scénarios historiques et hypothétiques dans les modèles de risque a permis d'évaluer le risque extrême tout en diminuant la subjectivité reprochée aux techniques de stress test. Le stress test réalisé avec les modèles internes des banques ne permet pas une mesure correcte du risque extrême. Le modèle GPD est mieux adapté pour le stress test. Nous avons développé un algorithme de stress test qui permettra aux banques d'évaluer le risque extrême de leurs portefeuilles et d'identifier les facteurs de risque responsables de ce risque. Le calcul du capital réglementaire sur la base de la somme de la VaR et du stress VaR n'est pas logique et entraîne un doublement des fonds propres réglementaires des banques. Le doublement de ces fonds propres aura pour conséquence le resserrement du crédit à l'économie. Nous observons que le coefficient multiplicateur et le principe de la racine carrée du temps de l'accord de Bâle conduisent les banques à faire un arbitrage en faveur des modèles de risque non fiables. / During the financial and economic crisis of 2008, it was noticed that the amount of capital required for banks' trading portfolio was significantly less than the real losses. To understand the causes of this low capital requirement, it seemed important to estimate the reliability of the market risk models and to propose stress testing methodologies for the management of extreme risks. The objective is to measure the capital requirement on a trading portfolio, composed of shares and commodities by the measure of the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall. To achieve this goal, we use the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and two internal models commonly used by banks: historical simulation method and model of the normal law. A first evaluation of the reliability made on the three risk models under the hypothesis of constant volatility, shows that the internal banks' models and the GPD model do not measure correctly the risk of the portfolio during the crisis periods. However, GPD model is reliable in periods of low volatility but with a strong overestimation of the real risk; it can lead banks to block more capital requirement than necessary. A second evaluation of the reliability of the risk models was made under the hypothesis of the change of the volatility and by considering the asymmetric effect of the financial returns. GPD model is the most reliable of all, irrespective of market conditions. The performance of the internal banks' risk models improves when considering the change of the volatility. The integration of the historic and hypothetical scenarios in the risk models, improves the estimation of the extreme risk, while decreasing the subjectivity blamed to the stress testing techniques. The stress testing realized with the internal models of banks does not allow a correct measure of the extreme risk. GPD model is better adapted for the stress testing techniques. We developed an algorithm of stress testing which allow banks to estimate the extreme risk of their portfolios and to identify the risk factors causing this risk. The calculation of the capital requirement based on the sum of the VaR and the stress VaR is not logical and leads to doubling the capital requirement of banks. Consequently, it conducts to a credit crunch in the economy. We observe that the multiplier coefficient and the principle of square root of time of the Basel's agreement lead banks to make arbitration in favor of risk models that are not reliable.
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Tactical production planning for physical and financial flows for supply chain in a multi-site context / Planification tactique de production des flux physiques et financiers d’une chaîne logistique multi-siteBian, Yuan 19 December 2017 (has links)
En période de crise financière, les entreprises ont besoin de trésorerie pour réagir efficacement aux aléas et assurer leur solvabilité. Cette thèse se situe à l’interface entre l’opérationnel et la finance pour développer des modèles de planification tactique gérant simultanément les flux physiques et financiers dans la supply chain. Le coût de financement des opérations basé sur le besoin en fond de roulement (BFR) est intégré comme un nouvel aspect financier jamais considéré dans la littérature de lot-sizing. Nous débutons par une extension du modèle EOQ considérant les coûts de financement du BFR. L’objectif est la maximisation du profit. Une quantité de production optimale est obtenue analytiquement ainsi que l’analyse de la sensibilité du modèle. De plus, les comparaisons avec le modèle EOQ et un modèle qui considère le coût du capital sont étudiées. Ensuite, un modèle basé sur un lot-sizing dynamique est établi. La propriété ZIO est démontrée et permet l’utilisation d’un algorithme en temps polynomial. Enfin un scénario multi-niveau à capacité infini est étudié avec une approche séquentielle puis centralisée. La propriété ZIO est prouvée dans ces deux cas. Des algorithmes de programmation dynamique sont utilisés pour obtenir une solution optimale. Cette thèse peut être considérée comme un premier, mais significatif, travail combinant la planification de production et la gestion du besoin en fond de roulement dans des modèles de planification tactique. Nous montrons que les aspects financiers ont un impact significatif sur les plans de production. Les cas étudiés dans cette thèse peuvent être considérés comme des sous-problèmes dans l’étude de scénario plus réalistes. / In financial crisis, companies always need free cash flow to efficiently react to any uncertainties to ensure solvency. Thus, this thesis serves as an interface between operations and finance to develop tactical production planning models for joint management of physical and financial flows in the supply chain. In these models, the financing cost of operation-based working capital requirement (WCR) is integrated as a new financial aspect never before considered in the lot-sizing literature. We first focus on extending the classic EOQ model by considering the financing cost of WCR with a profit maximization objective. The optimal analytic production quantity formula is derived as well as sensitivity analysis of this model. Moreover, a comparison with the EOQ model and with the formula which considers the cost of capital are discussed. Secondly, a dynamic lot-sizing-based, discounted cash flow model is established based on Uncapacitated lot-sizing model. The zero-inventory ordering property is proven valid for this case and a polynomial-time algorithm can thus be established. Thirdly, multi-level and infinite capacity scenario is investigated with both sequential and centralized approaches. The ZIO property is demonstrated valid in both cases. Dynamic-programming based algorithms are constructed in order to obtain an optimal solution. This thesis should be considered as a first, but significant setup of combining production planning and working capital management. It is shown the significant financial consequences of lot-sizing decision on production planning. The cases investigated in this thesis may be tackled as subproblems in the study of more realistic scenarios.
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Optimering av lagernivåer vid distributionscentralen Bygg Ole / Optimization of inventory levels at the distribution central of Bygg OleGöransson, Gustav, Johnson, Mathias January 2016 (has links)
Detta examensarbetes syfte var att undersöka möjligheter till förbättring av hantering av lagernivåer för Bygg Ole Saltsjö-Boo. En kombination av aspekter från både systemteknik och industriell ekonomi har använts. I rapporten applicerades Guaranteed Service-Level modellen baserad på historisk försäljning i kombination relevanta teorier om lagerkostnad. Rapporten var begränsad till att behandla utvalda produkter med hög omsättning från två utvalda leverantörer till Bygg Ole. Efterfrågan för alla produkter i rapporten utom en är icke säsongsberoende. Särskild hänsyn har dessutom tagits till servicenivå, kapitalkostnader och variation i efterfråga. Resultatet gav att en implementering av modellen skulle ge lägre lagernivåer och därmed lägre lagerkostnader. Slutsatsen från rapporten var att modellen skulle kunna implementeras, eventuellt med höga administrativa kostnader i början. Bygg Ole har också en möjlighet att använda ett ordersystem baserat på den matematiska GSL-modellen (Guaranteed Service-Level) i kombination med prognoser över efterfrågan producerade av försäljningsavdelningen på Bygg Ole. Detta skulle potentiellt kunna öka precisionen i lagerhanteringen. Den nuvarande lagerräntan är relativt lågt bestämd och därför minskas de beräknade besparingarna från implementering av modellen. Om lagerräntan skulle vara högre skulle den ekonomiska fördelen med implementeringen vara tydligare. Rekommendationen till Bygg Ole är att tillämpa den rekommenderade GSL-modellen i kombination med ett system för prognos över efterfrågan på några utvalda produkter och sedan utvärdera resultatet. / The aim of this thesis was to examine possible improvements in the inventory management and procedure of ordering at Bygg Ole Saltsjö-Boo. A combination of aspects from both Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering and Management has been used. In the report, a Guaranteed Service-Level model based on historical data of sales in combination with relevant theories about inventory carrying cost has been applied. The study was limited to specific chosen products with high sales from two selected suppliers of Bygg Ole. All these products in the study except one experienced low seasonal variety in demand. Furthermore special consideration was taken to service level, cost of capital and variability of demand. The result was that an implementation of the model would yield lower inventory levels and therefore lower carrying costs of inventory. The conclusion from the report was that the model could be implemented, although with possibly high administrative costs in the beginning. Bygg Ole also has a possibility of using an ordering system based on the mathematical GSL-model (Guaranteed Service-Level) in combination with forecasts of demand conducted by the sales department of Bygg Ole. This could potentially increase precision in the inventory management. The current inventory carrying charge is compounded relatively low and therefore decreases the calculated savings from implementing the model. If the carrying charge would be higher, the benefits of implementation would be more evident. The recommendation for Bygg Ole is to apply the recommended GSL-model in combination with a demand forecast planning system on a few selected products and then evaluate the result.
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Dealing with the ORSA : A Dynamic Risk-Factor Based Approach for the Small, Swedish Non-Life Insurer / Att handskas med ORSAn : En dynamisk riskfaktor-baserad metod för små, svenska skadeförsäkringsbolagSahlin, Carl, Hugner, Carl-Johan January 2013 (has links)
The Own Risk and Solvency Assessment, ORSA, is referred to as the heart of the regulation to be for European insurance companies - Solvency II. The aim of the ORSA process is to provide an overall and holistic view of the insurer’s risks by analyzing their current financial status and business strategy at hand. There is no predefined way to implement this process, which means that the companies are forced to develop a model themselves, as they see fit. In collaboration with a regional insurance company in Sweden we develop a structure and framework for an ORSA-model, flexible enough to be used by similar insurers yet standardized enough to overcome the issue of constrained resources within these smaller organizations. We apply a risk-factor based approach and tie together a balance sheet projection and stress testing, designed to be further developed as the individual insurer see fit. The suggested approach yields partially satisfying results and we consider the model to be particularly well-suited for assessing risk in the context of the small, non-life insurer. / Den egna risk- och solvensutvärderingen, ORSA, kallas hjärtat av det kommande regelverket för europeiska försäkringsbolag - Solvens II. Syftet med ORSA-processen är att ge en övergripande helhetsbild av försäkringsgivarens risker genom att analysera deras finansiella ställning och affärsstrategi. Det finns inget fördefinierat sätt att genomföra denna process, vilket innebär att företagen tvingas att utveckla en modell på egen hand, på ett sätt som de finner lämpligt. I samarbete med ett regionalt försäkringsbolag i Sverige utvecklar vi en struktur och en grund för en ORSA-modell. En modell som är tillräckligt flexibel för att kunna användas av liknande försäkringsgivare men samtidigt standardiserad nog att lösa problemet med begränsade resurser i dessa mindre organisationer. Vi tillämpar en riskfaktor-baserad metod, prognostiserar resultat- och balansräkning för bolaget och utför stresstester. Metoden är utformad för att utvecklas vidare av den enskilde försäkringsgivaren så som de finner lämpligt. Den föreslagna metoden ger delvis tillfredsställande resultat och vi anser att det är en grund väl lämpad att använda som utgångspunkt för att konstruera riskmätningsmetoder för små, skadeförsäkringsbolag.
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Ekonomický kapitál a cena rizika penzijního fondu / The economic capital and the price of risk in a pension fundČupák, Matúš January 2011 (has links)
In the present work we study the economic capital of pension funds and their possible extension into the new concept of Solvency II. The main task is to examine the risks that are characteristic for pension fund activity. We use several modified stress simulations, which we model using a virtual model of pension fund. Primarily we focus on changes in net asset value (NAV) which is used in standard formula for calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR). In conclusion, we evaluate the possible impact of applications Solvency II to pension funds, the resulting economic capital and solvency of modeled pension fund.
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台灣產險業實施風險基礎資本額制度之適當風險係數探討 / An Analysis of Risk Factors of RBC System for Property-Liability Industry in Taiwan連婉儀, Lien, Wan-I Unknown Date (has links)
行政院會於民國八十八年十二月十六日通過保險法修正草案,修正草案中針對強化保險業之監理機制與增進保戶大眾之權益係以強化其資本適足性為其修法目標,所採之方法即建立風險基礎資本額制(Risk-based Capital, RBC)。而保險法修正案於民國九十年六月二十六日業已經立法院三讀通過,基於保險法相關條文規定,RBC制度將於民國九十二年中實施。
另一方面,美國經濟、社會及投資環境和台灣不盡相同,若將此制度直接或稍加修改即套用於台灣,將可能造成不切實際與誤導的作用,其結果不僅可能無法有效規範及避免保險公司失卻清償能力,亦可能因而造成龐大的社會成本,反而和當初建立RBC制度之原意背道而馳。因此,本論文即依循台灣產險業之產業特性制訂一套合宜之產險RBC制度,其中包括各個適當之風險項目及所屬之風險係數。
本論文在資產風險部分結合風險值(Value at risk, VaR)來計算資產之風險係數;在準備金風險以及自留保費收入風險則依照美國RBC制度之原始公式重新計算得來,惟準備金風險部分實因資料取得限制無法順利求出,為求模型完整性此部分本論文以財政部草案取代之;而於自留保費收入風險方面是採險種別及公司別。
研究結果發現:台灣產險的風險係數確實和美國產險的風險係數是有相當的差異,並且須根據台灣產業的經驗及配合我國的社會、經濟、投資環境並經由實際的運算才能得到適切的風險係數;而以論文所建立之RBC模型試算於各公司之風險基礎資本比則多有偏低之情形。 / Legislative Yuan has pass the draft of Insurance Law on June 26, 2001. In order to strengthen insurance regulation mechanism and to protect the insureds' benefit, the Risk-based Capital will be implemented in Taiwan Insurance market in 2003.
On the other way, the economic environment and investment markets in United State are different from those in Taiwan. If we directly imitate their RBC system in Taiwan, the outcome would be impractical. It not only can't regulate the insurers effectively, but also may cause huge social cost. Therefore, the purpose of the thesis is to establish a suitable risk items and suitable risk factors for Property-Liability insurance in Taiwan by our own empirical data.
This study finds that risk factors are significant different between Taiwan and American for Property-Liability insurance industry. The risk factors of the RBC system in Taiwan must depend on our own empirical data. I used the RBC model built in the thesis to test every Property-Liability company in Taiwan, and found that calculated Risk-based Capital ratios were relatively low.
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台灣壽險公司資本適足率分析-以Solvency II QIS5原則計算 / A study on the solvency capital requirements of the life insurance companies in Taiwan-estimated in Solcency II QIS5 principles林正國, Lin, Cheng Kuo Unknown Date (has links)
歐盟保險業新監理架構Solvency II 於第5 次量化衝擊研究完成後計畫將在近年正式施行,我國保險業監理制度是否朝採用Solvency II 架構的方向前進仍未為定論,但必頇先行瞭解採行此制度可能對業界造成的影響。
本研究以2010 年8 月時CEIOPS 對Solvency II 所進行的第5 次量化衝擊研究QIS5 設立的標準與原則,對公司的資產與負債做假設後,以公帄價值法衡量壽險公司各部位資產位與負債,包括準備金的公帄價值衡量,並利用QIS5 所提供之計算工具標準法計算四家台灣壽險公司在2009 年底時的清償資本要求SCR。而QIS5 是在金融風暴後不久,當時環境使得利率極低,為了估算在利率環境較正常的情況下,本研究以2007 年底之利率做敏感度分析,重新計算各公司之資產與負債狀況與清償資本要求SCR。
研究結果發現在本研究假設下,負債面的準備金提存不足,保險公司以經濟
資本角度來衡量已經屬於破產狀態。投資型分離帳戶以外的準備金計算與目前準備金計提的方式除了頇以公帄價值衡量保險責任的最佳估計外,另外需要計提風險邊際,此數額約為最佳估計總額的12.4%至30.2%,保險公司自有資本不足有很大的因素是由於此部分準備金的計提。
也發現所計算出的SCR 中所最大的比率為利率風險或匯率風險,在假設以較
高利率環境做敏感度分析後發現壽險公司淨值仍然為負數,且所需要的SCR 與之前所得結果相差不大,顯示壽險公司負債部位對利率敏感度相當高,即使曝險部位變少,對於未來的利率變動仍需要準備相當大的資本以防範虧損。 / After the completion of the Fifth Quantitative Impact Study (QIS5) for the new insurance industrial regulation framework- Solvency II, European Union planned to implement the project in few years. No matter that the regulatory system of insurance industry in Taiwan will follow the trend or will not, it is a must that we should estimate the impacts on the whole industry before making the decisions.
This study have an aim to estimate the Solvency Capital Requirements of 4 life insurance companies in Taiwan in the same principles with QIS5, which were took place in August 2010 by CEIOPS. In order to calculate the SCR, we made a lot of hypotheses and then estimated the fair value of the company assets and liabilities, including the fair value of technical provision. By means of the calculating helpers provided by CEIOPS used in QIS5, we found out the SCRs of these companies when they were on 31 December 2009. Then we performed the sensitivity analysis by the different interest rate which is based on the data on 31 December 2007, and recalculated the SCRs of the companies.
This study had conclusions that the technical provisions were not sufficient to fulfill the obligations in aspect of the economic value. The surplus of companies were exhausted, because the technical provisions increased by fair valuation. Also, the heavy loadings of risk margins as 12.4% to 30.2% of the best estimates were the important reason of the negative own fund.
We found that the capital requirements of interest risk and currency risk took great percentages of total SCRs. And the SCRs will not reduce in great amount caused by technical provisions reduced in the situation that interest rate come back to the level in 2007. It showed that the SCRs had great sensitivity to the interest risk and insurance companies should prepare sufficient own fund to prevent financial crisis caused by interest rate shock.
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資本適足率對銀行流動性風險傳遞效果之研究 / The Effect of Capital Requirement on the Transmission of Liquidity Preference Shock among Banks蔡幸芳, Tsai, Hsing Fang Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在說明資本適足率對於銀行業資訊傳遞效果之影響,利用Allen and Gale (2000)模型討論在不完整市場結構下,銀行間因為持有銀行同業存款而形成相連的傳染途徑,進而影響整個系統,本研究擴展Allen and Gale (2000)的模型,加入資本適足率的考量,從而進一步探討透過資本適足要求能否有效提高銀行整體穩定性。
模型假設因為不同區域對於早、晚期消費需求不同,可藉由區域間的資源移轉,來達到最適分配情況。隨著資本適足率的納入,將改變最適分配解,同時分析緩衝(buffer)、擴散效果(spillover effect)及傳染(contagion)的變化。文中傳染定義為擴散效果扣除緩衝力道的淨結果,並說明若有超額流動性消費需求衝擊時,一家銀行的倒閉將如何傳染至整個銀行體系。
此研究發現,在資本適足規定下,若長期資產報酬率越大,會更有機會取得較大的緩衝能力,但將面對較大的擴散效果。關於傳染現象,則是發覺當銀行同業存款越小,在資本適足規定下的傳染機會越低;若長期資產的早期報酬率越大,同樣可降低發生傳染現象機率,即驗證資本適足率對於銀行穩定性的貢獻。 / The objective of this study is to testify the effect of capital requirement with regard to information transmission among banks. We develop a model based on Allen and Gale (2000) to discuss that under incomplete market structure, contagion channel is built because of interbank deposits market. We also expand Allen and Gale’s model by putting new parameter, capital requirement, into this model to analyze the impact of capital requirement with respect to stability in banking system.
Due to different liquidity demands at each date in different regions, banks can exchange resources in the system to reach the first-best allocation. With capital requirement, the first-best allocation varies and so does buffer, spillover effect and contagion. In this article, contagion is defined as the net result of spillover effect minus buffer. Besides, we explain how the bankruptcy in one region evolves into the bankruptcy in the whole system under excess demand for liquidity.
We find out that with capital requirement, if return of long-term asset at final date is higher, there will be more chances to have more buffers but larger spillover effect. As for contagion, it shows that with lower interbank deposits or higher return of long-term asset at early date, the possibility of contagion will be reduced. As a result, we can conclude that capital requirement really improves the stability in banking system.
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