This dissertation work provides a kaleidoscope of alternative empirical estimation techniques while illuminating and challenging conventional approaches and established findings in the Corporate Finance literature. In particular, the observed „conglomerate discount“ and the effect of diversication and concentrated ownership on firm value are revisited in the course of my cumulated doctoral thesis. In doing so, the main emphasis lies on the inference of causation in the presence of endogeneity concerns, namely by considering potential distortions caused by unobserved heterogeneity, reverse causality or non-random self-selection.:1 A Corporate Finance Application of the Oaxaca-Blinder De-composition: Causes of the Diversification Discount 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Corporate diversi_cation and its agency-related costs 1.3 The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition as an approach to explaining the excess value gap 1.3.1 Pooled sample OLS decomposition 1.3.2 The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition 1.4 Sample selection and description 1.4.1 Sample selection and variables 1.4.2 Sample description 1.5 Empirical analysis and discussion 1.5.1 Basic results 1.5.2 Robustness tests 1.6 Conclusion 1.7 Tables 1.8 References 1.9 Appendix 2 A Paradoxon of Policy Intervention: The Case of the German Tax Reduction Act 2.1 Introduction 2.2 The Tax Reduction Act of 2000 2.3 Theoretical Framework 2.3.1 Investor View 2.3.2 Investee View 2.4 Data and Descriptives 2.4.1 Sample 2.4.2 Summary Statistics 2.4.3 Identification Strategy 2.5 Estimation Framework 2.5.1 The Effect of the Tax Reform on Ownership Concentration and Firm Value 2.5.2 The Effect of Ownership Concentration on Firm Value 2.6 Conclusion and Discussion 2.7 Tables 2.8 Appendix 2.9 References 3 Good Matches Last Longer { Unobserved Heterogeneity across Firm-Owner Matches 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Estimation Framework 3.2.1 Empirical Model 3.2.2 Error Decomposition 3.2.3 The OLS Estimator 3.2.4 The Instrumental Variable (IV)-Approach 3.2.5 Prediction of Bias Direction and Relevance 3.3 Data and Sample Description 3.3.1 Sample 3.3.2 Summary Statistics 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Cumulative Effect of Ownership Concentration 3.4.2 Cumulative Effect of Ownership Concentration by Owner Types 3.5 Discussion and Conclusion 3.6 Tables 3.7 Appendix 3.8 References 4 About estimating gains from diversification and why firms self-select 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Modelling gains from diversification 4.2.1 Potential outcomes and switching regressions 4.2.2 Expected firm values and selection bias 4.2.3 Diversification gains and selection bias 4.3 Modelling selection into diversification 4.3.1 Selection according to highest expected outcome 4.3.2 Selection on expected gains 4.4 Sample selection and descriptives 4.4.1 Sample selection and excess value measure 4.4.2 Distribution of firm characteristics 4.5 Results 4.5.1 OLS and IV estimation 4.5.2 Endogenous switching regression 4.6 Conclusion 4.7 Tables 4.8 References

Le sujet du parcours est l'esprit, l'axe de recherche est le concept de causalité. Il s'agit d'abord de relever les déclinaisons de ce concept afin de souligner ces applications dans les travaux des philosophes de l'esprit. Après avoir vu des approches de la causalité (productif et pour dépendance), on parcourt la voie du fonctionnalisme et du physicalisme en philosophie de l'esprit, en voyant les notions de cause et leurs problèmes. On voit aussi d'un point de vue plus empirique la recherche du corrélat neuronal de la conscience. On souligne que la question de la " conscience phénoménale" peut être individuée en tant que problème philosophique et scientifique parce qu'elle s'impose comme inaccessible à une connaissance intersubjective et que le concept productif de cause ne peut pas être appliqué. Le problème principal, c'est la possibilité de détecter une corrélation mais pas un rapport asymétrique de relation causale. En cherchant un point de vue qui part de la conscience et un concept relationnel pour la corrélation psycho-physique (interrelation), on voit les thèses phénoméniste de Mach, de Carnap et de la pensée boudhiste (Ancienne/ Moyen-Age) avec leurs problèmes et leurs intuitions. On peut comprendre que la corrélation ne peut pas être dégagée d'un point de vue métaphysique mais qu'une conception épistémologique s'avère possible. C'est dans la méthode phénoménologique et la recherche neurophénoménologique qu'on peut trouver les moyens concrets d'exploration de la conscience. Cela permet d'appliquer un concept causal actionniste sur le plan épistémique et la notion d'interrelation pour décrire la corrélation psychophysique et son contexte d'individuation. / The debate is on the notions of cause impact on theory of mind and consciousness. First of all, I explore two notions of causality as defined by Ned Hall (2004) : production and dependence, and other related positions among which the actionist theory. After, I see the use of the notion of cause approaches to mind-body problem and to problem of consciousness (functionalism, physicalism and the NCC research) and two experimental examples (blindsight ans neurofeedback), I argue that neither production nor dependence are useful because there is a correlation and not an asymetrical causal relation, but that actionist theory of cause can be a good descriptive approache to our epistemic point of view. After I explore the phenomenalist point of view (Mach, Carnap and the Buddhist philosophy of Middle Age) on consciousness and psychophysical relation and the notions of cause and interrelation. It emerges that an epistemic description is useful and possible. I find in phenomenological and neurophenomenological methods the specific ways to detailing aspects of consciousness and mental phenomena, this allows to apply the actionist concept of cause for the epistemic point of view and to describe the psychophysical relation with the notion of interrelation.

Consacrée à la fin du 19ème siècle, la perte de chance n'est autre qu'un préjudice visant à réparer 1 disparition de la probabilité de constater la réalisation d'un évènement favorable. Synonyme du hasard quand elle est employée au singulier mais synonyme de probabilité lorsqu'elle est plurielle la chance est encadrée par le droit. La perte de chance constitue un préjudice réparable dès lors que la victime du comportement dommageable démontre la réunion de certaines conditions de fond. A cet effet, la question de la causalité semble retenir une attention toute particulière. Le lien de causalité doit s'établir entre le comportement répréhensible et la perte de chance. Ainsi, le préjudice de perte de chance dispose d'une causalité autonome et ne saurait se confondre avec le dommage intégral. Par ailleurs, la chance doit être « réelle et sérieuse » pour être réparable, excluant ainsi toutes les chances faibles de la réparation. La victime obtiendra alors une réparation à hauteur de la chance perdue. Disposant d'une valeur juridique, la chance doit être irrémédiablement perdue pour être réparable. En effet, si la victime se prévaut d'une chance encore susceptible d'être atteinte, la réparation de la chance sera exclue. Bien que rigoureusement définie, la perte de chance s'est quelque peu dévoyée afin d'apparaître comme une notion « fourre-tout », comme un réflexe juridique, comme la solution de la dernière chance pour obtenir une réparation. Dans cet objectif, la perte de chance a notamment contourné la relation causale, pourtant indispensable, afin d'attribuer ce préjudice une vocation plus morale que juridique. La perte de chance subit les conséquences de l'évolution du concept de responsabilité civile et l'influence du principe de précaution. Remettant en cause la définition de la perte de chance, cette conception a même permis de poser la question de l'existence de cette théorie juridique qui ne rencontre qu'un succès plus que relatif dans le systèmes juridiques européens. Coincée dans un tourbillon juridique, la perte de chance est devenue un réflexe indemnitaire mettant toutes les chances au même niveau. Par un revirement de jurisprudence, assez inattendu, la Cour de Cassation est venue insérer la référence à la notion de « chance raisonnable ». Ainsi, la perte de chance retrouve la place qui lui avait été consacrée en ne réparant que les chances substantielles. Ce travail consistera à démontrer l'intérêt que cette révolution juridique apporte au préjudice de perte de chance. Qu'il s'agisse de l'efficacité de son régime juridique ou de stabilité de son application, la perte de chance aura tout intérêt à épouser un renouveau juridique au gré de propositions, certes rigoureuses, mais ô combien pragmatiques. / Acknowledged by the end of the 19th century, the loss of chance is nothing else than the prejudice recognizing the Joss of the probability of a positive event occurring. Synonymous of coincidence when used in its singular form but synonymous of probabilities when plural, the chance is in framed by law. The loss of a chance is a repairable prejudice as long as the victim of the harmful attitude shows the gathering of a few substantive conditions. To this effect, the notion of causality ought to be given a particular consideration. The chain of causation must be established between the objectionable behavior and the loss of chance. Hence, the loss of chance prejudice has its own autonomous causation and shall not be mistaken with the entire damage. Furthermore, the chance must be « real and serious » in order to be repairable, thus excluding the low chances on reparation. The victim will then obtain a compensation equal to the loss of chance. Having a legal value, the chance must be lost forever in order to be compensated. Indeed, if the victim claims chance that might still be reached, its compensation will be excluded. Even though it has been rigorously defined, the loss of chance has been brought down to the holdall status, as a legal reaction as if it were the last possibility to obtain compensation. In this perspective, the loss of chance has bypassed the causality, yet essential, in order to award to this prejudice a moral connotation whether than a legal one. The loss of chance undergoes the consequences of the evolution of the civil liability concept and the influence of the precautionary principle. Taking perspective on the loss of chance's definition, this concept has even enable the question of the existence of this legal theory, which encounters a relative success in the European legal systems. Trapped in a legal swirl, the loss of chance has become a compensation reflex, putting all the chances on the same level. By an unexpected revision of the jurisprudence, the Cour de Cassation (Supreme Court), has integrated the reference the "reasonable chance" notion. Thus, the loss of chance finds its original place back, compensating only the substantive chances. This work will aim at demonstrating the impact of the legal revolution on the loss of chance. Whether it is the effectiveness of its legal regime or the stability of its enforcement, the loss of chance has an interest in embracing the legal renewal through strict and pragmatic propositions.

The research aims to investigate the relationship between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth. The Arab Spring placed renewed interest on the topic of freedom, yet current economic conditions seemingly contradicted the established theory. The largest free economies were being outperformed by those with less political and economic freedom.Three objectives were specified to answer the research question. The first objective aimed to determine the association between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth, for which Spearman’s correlation was used. The second objective aimed to investigate causal relationships between the variables, for which Granger’s causality was employed. The third objective aimed to examine complex relationships between the variables, for which vector autoregression was used.Economic growth was weakly correlated with the independent variables. Civil liberties, political rights and economic freedom, however, had strong correlations with each other. Economic freedom and economic growth had bi-directional Granger-causality. Political rights Granger-caused economic freedom whilst civil liberties Granger-caused political rights and economic freedom. Using vector autoregression, the model consisting of economic growth, economic freedom and civil liberties had the greatest explanatory power towards economic growth. Existing theory therefore remains valid: political freedom enhances economic freedom, which, in turn, enhances economic growth.The relationship between economic freedom, political freedom and economic growth / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Soil moisture influences the water and energy cycles of terrestrial environments, and thus plays an important climatic role. However, the behavior of soil moisture at large scales, including its impact on atmospheric processes such as precipitation, is not well characterized. Satellite remote sensing allows for indirect observation of large-scale soil moisture, but validation of these data is complicated by the difference in scales between remote sensing footprints and direct ground-based measurements. To address this problem, a method, based on information theory (specifically, mutual information), was developed to determine the useful information content of satellite soil moisture records using precipitation observations. This method was applied to three soil moisture datasets derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements over the contiguous U.S., allowing for spatial identification of the algorithm with the least inferred error. Ancillary measures of biomass and topography revealed a strong dependence between algorithm performance and confounding surface properties. Next, statistical causal identification methods (i.e. Granger causality) were used to examine the link between AMSR-E soil moisture and the occurrence of next day precipitation, accounting for long term variability and autocorrelation in precipitation. The probability of precipitation occurrence was modeled using a probit regression framework, and soil moisture was added to the model in order to test for statistical significance and sign. A contrasting pattern of positive feedback in the western U.S. and negative feedback in the east was found, implying a possible amplification of drought and flood conditions in the west and damping in the east. Finally, observations and simulations were used to demonstrate the pitfalls of determining causality between soil moisture and precipitation. It is shown that ignoring long term variability and precipitation autocorrelation can result in artificial positive correlation between soil moisture and precipitation, unless explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In total, this dissertation evaluates large-scale soil moisture measurements, outlines important factors that can cloud the determination of land surface-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, and examines the causal linkage between soil moisture and precipitation at large scales.

This study examines the relationship between unemployment rates and oil price, oil price uncertainty, and interest rates. This relation is examined by testing for both cointegration and causality between the variables. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method this study managed to examine the long-run cointegration between unemployment rates oil price, oil price uncertainty, and interest rates. A modification of the ARDL method is the error correction method which was used to find the short-run dynamics and the speed of convergence back to equilibrium after a shock. Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) regression was then applied to find the optimal estimates of the long-run coefficients for the regressions. The Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test is used to find the direction of causality between the variables. These tests were conducted on Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland on monthly data from January 2008 to February 2020. A cointegration relationship was found for Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. The long-run coefficients from the FMOLS regression showed that increased oil prices lead to increased unemployment rates for Sweden and Denmark. All countries except Denmark show evidence of causality from oil prices on unemployment indicating a strong relationship between these two variables. Some countries show causality from oil price uncertainty and interest rates on unemployment rates. These results provide important guidance for policymakers on how to design good economic policies.

The nexus among foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the Mexican economic growth has been the subject of a number of recent papers. Yet, previous studies frequently overlook its relationship to human capital and consequently ignore potential interlinkages between the variables. By running an ARDL model and thereafter applying the Granger causality technique derived by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) this paper investigates the relationship among FDI and economic performance in Mexico during 1970-2018 after incorporating human capital into the framework. When including human capital, measured as gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, FDI inflows and real GDP per capita have an insignificant long-run relationship. However, this paper finds a Granger-causal relationship running from FDI inflows to human capital. Human capital, on the other hand, precedes real GDP per capita and the main implication is thus that FDI may not spur economic performance directly, but indirectly through its significant effect on the enrolment ratio in tertiary education. Therefore, to ignore the influence of human capital may result in deceptive conclusions regarding the Mexican FDI-growth nexus.

One of the main goals of genetics has been to understand the link between genotype and phenotype. Using yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) as our model organism, we take a closer look at the connection between genetic variation and gene expression to learn more about the mechanisms of gene regulation. We propose an algorithm based on ANOVA to detect causal relationships between coexpressed genes. We first identify expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) with strong effects on gene expression. The algorithm then uses these eQTLs with strong effects and the expression of all genes to identify how genes are affecting each other. This is done by analysing coexpressed gene pairs where both genes have an eQTL and finding if the eQTL of one gene affects the expression of the other. Genes that were found to affect the expression of other genes were named “causal genes”. We evaluate our method by comparing its results with known causal genes and conclude that it is a good predictor of known interactions. Using this algorithm, we found 741 genes having causal effects on gene expression, many of which affected the gene expression of many other genes across the genome (2278 total affected genes). Some of the causal genes clustered at six hotspot regions in the genome. Genes in hotspot regions were found to have lower heritability than genes outside these regions. We hypothesize that hotspot regions may be enriched for essential and/or fitness related genes.

With an ever-increasing globalising world, trade is of most importance for developing countries to not fall behind and be outcompeted. Export-led growth theory states that one of the key determinants for economic growth is exports. This thesis aims to analyse the causal effects of exports on economic growth in the case of Brazil. Annual data from the World Bank’s database for the years 1990-2018 has been used. The variables included are GDP, exports, gross capital formation, FDI and labour force. This study puts the export-led growth theory in a Vector Error Correction – Granger Causality framework. As opposed to previous scholars’ findings, neither export-led growth nor growth-led export could be determined for Brazil.

Real estate industry plays a significant role in high speed of economic development in China. However, with increasingly high housing price and scare land resources, real estate development is caught in a vicious circle. A large number of families could not afford their housing while housing prices have no trend to decrease which leads to huger gap between the rich and the poor and causes indirectly instability of society. Therefore, creating a healthy and stable real estate investment market is extremely urgent. The purpose of the thesis is to research the relationship between leading index of macro economy prosperity and real estate investment based on the reality. We found that leading indicator Granger causes real estate investment while real estate investment Granger causes leading indicator at the same time. Based on that, this paper also forecasts the real estate investment with VAR models in the following 7 years which was proved to a circle of real estate market. In the light of our research, some target suggestions are pointed out at last.