Este trabalho realiza uma análise exploratória do comportamento das venda de varejo na economia brasileira. O estudo parte da identificação de variáveis econômicas relevantes na determinação das vendas de varejo. A identificação apoia-se em proposições de outros estudos e testes de causalidade. O resultado da identificação é validado por meio da construção de um modelo de previsão de vendas no varejo. A relevância da causalidade das variáveis é verificada pela comparação do desempenho do modelo multivariado em relação ao desempenho de modelos univariados. Em seguida, o trabalho aprofunda a análise da relevância das variáveis por meio da mensuração da causalidade das taxas de juros básica da economia e ao consumidor e da mensuração do tempo médio de causalidade sobre as vendas de varejo. Por fim, as vendas de varejo são decompostas em vendas setoriais e avaliadas as mensurações de causalidade e tempo de causalidade das taxas de juros sobre os segmentos de varejo. / This work conducts an exploratory analysis on the behavior of retail sales in the brazilian economy. The analysis starts by identifying relevant economic variables in determining retail sales. The identification leans on other researches and causality tests. The identification results are validated by the contruction of a forecasting model for retail sales. The relevance of causal variables is assessed by comparing the forecasting performance of univariate models against the multivariate model. The work deepens the analysis of the causal variables by measuring the causality of the basic interest rate and the consumer interest rate over retail sales and by measuring the average time of the causality. The same analysis is extended to industry sectors in the retail sales.

Orientador: Evely Boruchovitch / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Educação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T09:10:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Kaulfuss_MarcoAurelio_M.pdf: 1947979 bytes, checksum: 404b9c8539bdcdb9ad9b9e6ff0f3eca4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Kaulfuss, Marco Aurélio. (2014). Atribuição causal para o sucesso e fracasso em ensinar e crença de eficácia coletiva de professores. Dissertação de Mestrado, Faculdade de Educação, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas. A importância da atribuição causal em contextos de desempenho relacionados ou não à Educação está bastante consolidada na literatura e encontra forte amparo teórico no que se refere à sua influência na atuação docente. O construto da eficácia coletiva já se delineou como um importante determinante das práticas e percepções de professores. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa teve como objetivo investigar essas duas variáveis e suas possíveis correlações junto a um grupo de 153 professores, de ambos os gêneros, atuantes em dois municípios do interior de São Paulo. Para a coleta de dados, foram utilizados dois instrumentos em formato de escala do tipo Likert, sendo um para o levantamento das atribuições causais dos docentes em relação ao seu sucesso ou fracasso em ensinar e outro para identificação do seu nível de eficácia coletiva. Os dados foram analisados de acordo com os procedimentos da estatística descritiva e inferencial. Os professores que atuam no município A tendem a atribuir maior internalidade e estabilidade para o próprio fracasso, quando comparados aos do B. Professores com mais idade atribuem causas incontroláveis para o sucesso e os com maior tempo de atuação atribuem causas internas e instáveis para o sucesso. Os docentes que atuam no nível fundamental I tendem a perceber as causas do seu sucesso como menos controláveis e estáveis e mais internas, em comparação aos professores de nível fundamental II e estes atribuem seu fracasso mais a causas incontroláveis, externas e instáveis. Verifica-se correlação significativa positiva entre eficácia coletiva e escores de atribuições causais para sucesso em termos das dimensões da causa como: controlabilidade, incontrolabilidade, internalidade, externalidade e instabilidade. Também houve correlação significativa e negativa entre os escores na escala de eficácia coletiva e na de atribuições causais para fracasso nas dimensões de controlabilidade, incontrolabilidade, internalidade, externalidade e instabilidade. Os resultados obtidos na presente pesquisa merecem atenção e sinalizam a necessidade de outras perspectivas de investigações em amostras maiores e mais representativas que busquem identificar não só as correlações da eficácia coletiva com a atribuição causal, mas também que possam esclarecer como o feedback obtido pelos professores como grupo pode influenciar a sua autoeficácia e eficácia coletiva. Assim, recomenda-se que futuras pesquisas atentem para os índices obtidos, nas escolas, pelas avaliações formais, tais como o IDEB, a identificação dos processos de comunicação nas organizações escolares, o modelo de gestão assumido, o desenvolvimento de indicadores institucionais, os sistemas de reconhecimento e valorização adotados, entre outras possibilidades / Abstract: Kaulfuss, Marco Aurélio. (2014). Causal attribution for success and failure in teaching and the belief of collective efficacy of teachers. Master¿s qualification report, Faculty of Education, State University of Campinas, Campinas. The importance of causal attribution in contexts of performance, whether related to Education or not, is very well established in the literature and finds strong theoretical support regarding its influence on teaching practice. The construct of collective efficacy has already been outlined as an important determinant of the practices and perceptions of teachers. In this sense, the present study aimed to investigate these two variables and their possible correlations among a group of 153 teachers, of both sexes, working in two counties of a city in the state of São Paulo. For the data collection, two instruments were used in Likert type scale format, one for the evaluation of the causal attributions of the teachers in relation to their success or failure in teaching and another for the identification of their belief of collective efficacy. The data were analyzed according to inferential and descriptive statistical procedures. The teachers who worked in the municipality A tended to attribute greater internality and stability to their own failure, when compared to B. Older teachers attributed uncontrollable causes to their success and those who had practiced longer attributed internal and unstable causes to their success. The teachers who worked at elementary level I tended to perceive the causes of their success as less controllable and stable, and more internal, compared to the teachers of elementary level II, who attributed their failure more to uncontrollable, external and unstable causes. A significant positive correlation emerged between collective efficacy and scores of causal attributions for success in terms of the dimensions of the cause, such as: controllability, uncontrollability, internality, externality, and instability. There was also a significant negative correlation between the collective efficacy scale scores and the causal attributions for failure in the dimensions of controllability, uncontrollability, internality, externality, and instability. The results obtained in this study deserve attention and indicate the need for studies from other perspectives with larger, more representative samples, which not only seek to identify the correlations of collective efficacy with causal attribution, but also to clarify how the feedback obtained by the teachers as a group can influence their self-efficacy and collective efficacy. Thus, it is recommended that future studies investigate the indices obtained in the schools through formal evaluations, such as the IDEB, the identification of the communication processes in the school organizations, the management model assumed, the development of institutional indicators, and the recognition and valuation systems adopted, among other possibilities / Mestrado / Psicologia Educacional / Mestre em Educação

Orientador: Lucas Angioni / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T16:26:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Zuppolini_BrenoAndrade_M.pdf: 1697211 bytes, checksum: 90a25cb07732228ac68e4afe94a0fb34 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: A teoria da demonstração de Aristóteles, desenvolvida no tratado Segundos Analíticos, não se limita a determinar os requisitos formais para a elaboração de argumentos probatórios que estabeleçam adequadamente os resultados da investigação científica. Ao aspecto probatório da demonstração, acrescenta-se o seu caráter prioritariamente explanatório, orientado por teses de forte conteúdo ontológico-metafísico, as quais envolvem noções como substância, essência e causalidade. Pretendemos analisar a relação entre estes dois âmbitos da filosofia aristotélica da ciência e investigar em que medida as características formais da demonstração mantêm uma afinidade com o arcabouço metafísico a que está condicionada a atividade científica / Abstract: Aristotle's theory of demonstration, developed in the Posterior Analytics, is not restricted to determining the formal requirements for formulating probative arguments that establish properly the results of scientific investigation. To the probative aspect of demonstration it shall be added its primarily explanatory character, orientated by theses of strong ontological and metaphysical content and involving notions like substance, essence and causation. We shall analyze the relation between those two ranges of Aristotle's philosophy of science and investigate how the formal features of demonstration maintain an affinity with the metaphysical background to which scientific activity is conditioned / Mestrado / Filosofia / Mestre em Filosofia

Orientador: Cláudio Eduardo Muller Banzato / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T23:16:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Araujo_LuisFernandoSilvaCastrode_M.pdf: 17028426 bytes, checksum: 19c4738a0813da9cb9bc34f3ae98874d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A noção de causa é de grande importância na medicina e o uso de um vocabulário causal é praticamente inevitável. Afinal, intervenções como a prevenção e o tratamento dependem do conhecimento sobre as causas das doenças. Contudo, na literatura médica científica, frequentemente não se explicita quais são as noções de causa e os modelos causais empregados. Há ainda uma expectativa da descoberta de causas fortes, isto é, que seja necessário e suficiente o que nem sempre é o que constatamos na prática. No caso da psiquiatria, que nos interessa em particular, na maioria das vezes temos muitos fatores com influência causal fraca, cuja determinação é, na melhor das hipóteses, probabilística. Entender como se dá a cadeia causal dos transtornos mentais é um grande desafio. E a equação fica ainda mais complicada se incluirmos no raciocínio causal eventos que não se repetem, como, por exemplo, circunstâncias biográficas. OBJETIVO: O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar de forma filosoficamente informada às noções de causalidade presentes explícita ou implicitamente na literatura científica atual e estabelecer quais os modelos filosóficos de causalidade que predominam nestes textos. Abordo o modelo de causalidade do filósofo John L. Mackie como alternativa para a aplicação de modelos exclusivamente estatísticos de causalidade, como aparecem na literatura científica desde os trabalhos de Bradford- Hill (1964). MÉTODO E RESULTADOS: Realizei uma revisão da literatura filosófica e médica através das bases de dados relevantes (Philosophy Index e PubMed) e analisei os conceitos de causa utilizados, seja implícita ou explicitamente nos artigos. Também fiz uma busca ativa por livros de filósofos que tenham abordado o tema causalidade, bem como busquei artigos através das referências do material coletado. Há consequências da aplicação de certas ideias de causalidade sobre os dados empíricos, por exemplo, se devemos assumir ou não uma visão indeterminística de mundo é uma delas (distinção que aparece implicitamente entre os trabalhos de Koch e de Bradford- Hill, por exemplo). Outra consequência é a de que modelos estatísticos e de regularidade se aplicam com dificuldade em casos que não se repetem como acontece particularmente na psiquiatria. Além disto, a forma de investigação científica que escolhemos tem como consequência o acúmulo de informações com pouco poder explicativo sobre os eventos mentais. Exatamente por estas características da psiquiatria que utilizo o modelo do filósofo John L. Mackie de condição INUS, por ser capaz de lidar tanto com casos singulares quanto com relações estatísticas, assim como também é capaz de organizar de forma explicativa os dados científicos. Mackie propõe que nossa noção de causa inclui como causalmente relevantes elementos periféricos; causalidade é, para ele, "necessidade nas circunstâncias". Através desta idéia, define uma condição INUS como sendo um elemento necessário para um conjunto de circunstâncias que por sua vez é suficiente para o efeito em estudo. Detalho este modelo causal no decorrer do texto e, a título de exemplo, o aplico na Esquizofrenia e no Transtorno de Estresse Pós-traumático / Abstract: Causality is of great importance in medicine and the use of causal vocabulary is perhaps inevitable. After all, interventions such as prevention and treatment depend, to a large extent, upon the knowledge about the causes of diseases. However, medical scientific literature is seldom explicit about the notions of cause and causal models employed. There seems to be high expectations of finding strong causes for the diseases, i.e., causes that are necessary and sufficient, which are rarely seen in daily practice. In psychiatry, our main concern here, there are many weak causal factors whose determination is, at best, probabilistic. Understanding the causal chain of mental disorders is, therefore, a major challenge, and this equation becomes even more complex if we include in it singular events, such as biographical circumstances. OBJECTIVE: This work aims to analyze, in a philosophically-informed way, the explicit or implicit notions of causality in the current medical scientific literature and to find out which philosophical models of causality prevail in these texts. I also suggest that the causality model of the philosopher John L. Mackie is as an alternative to the exclusive use of statistical models in scientific papers, tendency observed since the seminal work of Bradford-Hill (1964). METHODS AND RESULTS: I reviewed medical and philosophical literature through the relevant databases (PubMed and Philosophy Index, respectively) and analyzed the concepts of cause used either implicitly or explicitly in the articles. I also made an active search through the references of the articles reviewed and considered as well books of philosophers who have addressed causality. There are important consequences of applying certain ideas of causality on empirical data, such as, for instance, deciding whether or not we should adopt an indeterministic stance of the world (distinction that implicitly appears in the contrast between the works of Koch and Bradford-Hill, for example). Another key consequence is that statistical models (which are based on regularity) face some difficulties when dealing with events that do not repeat, common occurrence in psychiatry. Moreover, the mainstream scientific research in psychiatry is leading to a growing set of empirical data with limited explanatory power about the causality of mental disorders. In that regard, the model of the philosopher John L. Mackie, called INUS condition, appear to be very helpful for rearranging the causal elements within a causal field. Mackie suggests that our notion of cause usually takes peripheral elements to be causally relevant; for him, causality is "necessity in the circumstances." Thus, he defines the notion of INUS condition as a necessary element within a set of conditions, set that is, at its turn, sufficient (though not necessary) for the effect. I explored the notion of INUS condition throughout the text and, to exemplify its feasibility and to stress its advantages, applied it to the hypothetical causal conceptualization of Schizophrenia and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder / Mestrado / Saude Mental / Mestre em Ciências Médicas

[pt] Dentre as obras de que dispomos para a reconstituição do pensamento metafísico de Tomás de Aquino (1225-1274), encontram-se as Quaestiones disputatae De Potentia Dei, redigidas entre 1265 e 1266. Conhecer o itinerário (iter) filosófico do De Potentia é tarefa indispensável não só para a exegese da obra, mas, sobretudo, para determinar a originalidade da síntese metafísica de seu autor. O iter metafísico do Aquinate se orienta em torno de duas vias complementares, a saber: a via de resolução (via resolutionis) e a via de composição (via compositionis). Cada via se desdobra na consideração do ente enquanto tal à luz das causas intrínsecas (secundum rationem) ou das causas extrínsecas (secundum rem). A análise dos argumentos do De Potentia revela que o termo a quo da via de resolução pelas causas intrínsecas (via resolutionis secundum rationem) consiste na elevação da dýnamis aristotélica à condição de potentia essendi, enquanto o seu termo ad quem é a resolução de todos os atos e de todas as perfeições dos entes na atualidade e na perfeição do ato de ser (actus essendi). Em perspectiva ulterior, os entes são elevados à condição de participantes do próprio ser subsistente (ipsum esse subsistens), realizando-se assim o itinerário da via de resolução pelas causas extrínsecas (via resolutionis secundum rem). É a superação pela via de resolução no esse das antíteses sobre as quais nasce nossa herança metafísica (participação e causalidade, transcendência e imanência, platonismo e aristotelismo) que constitui a contribuição mais original de Tomás de Aquino à vida cultural do Ocidente. / [en] Among the works we dispose of for the reconstitution of the metaphysical thought of Thomas Aquinas (1225-1274), we find the Quaestiones disputatae De Potentia Dei, written between 1265 and 1266. To know the philosophical itinerary (iter) of the De Potentia is an indispensable task not only for the exegesis of that work, but, above all, for determining the originality of the metaphysical synthesis of its author. The metaphysical itinerary of Aquinas is guided around two complementary ways: the way of resolution (via resolutionis) and the way of composition (via compositionis). Each of them considers being qua being in the light of the intrinsic causes (secundum rationem) or extrinsic causes (secundum rem). Examination of the De Potentia´s arguments reveals that the term a quo of the way of resolution by the intrinsic causes (via resolutionis secundum rationem) is the rising of the aristotelian dýnamis to the condition of potentia essendi, while its term ad quem consists of the resolution of all acts and of all perfections of beings in the actuality and in the perfection of the act of being (actus essendi). In an ulterior perspective, the beings are raised to the condition of participants of the selfsubsisting being (ipsum esse subsistens), thus fulfilling the itinerary of the way of the resolution by extrinsic causes (via resolutionis secundum rem). It is the overcoming by way of the resolution in esse of the antitheses on which our metaphysical inheritance is born (participation and causality, transcendence and immanence, platonism and aristotelism) that constitutes the most original contribution of Thomas Aquinas to the cultural life of the West.

This thesis consists of three studies which cover topics in the trading volume-market return volatility linkage, stock market return-aggregate mutual fund flow relationship as well as market return volatility-aggregate mutual fund flow interaction. Chapter 2 investigates the issue of volume-volatility linkage in the US market for the period 1990-2012 (S&P 500) and 1992-2012 (Dow Jones). We construct four sub-samples depending on three different structural points (the Asian Financial Crisis, the Dot-Com Bubble and the 2007 Financial Crisis). By employing univariate and bivariate GARCH processes, we find positive (negative) bidirectional linkages between these two aforementioned variables in various cases of the estimation, while a mixed one is observed in the remainder of these cases. Chapter 3 examines the issue of temporal ordering of the range-based stock market return (S&P 500 index) and aggregate mutual fund flow in the U.S. market for the period 1998-2012. We construct nine sub-samples represented by three fundamental cases of the whole data set. In addition, we take into consideration three essential indicators when splitting the whole data set, which are the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the 2007 Financial Crisis as well as the 2009 European Sovereign Debt Crisis. We examine the dynamics of the return-flow interaction by employing bivariate VAR model with various specifications of GARCH approach. Our principal findings display a bidirectional mixed feedback between stock market return and aggregate mutual fund flow for the majority of the sub-samples obtained. Nevertheless, we provide limited evidence of a positive bi-directional causality between return and flow. Chapter 4 investigates the dynamic relation between S&P 500 return volatility and U.S. aggregate mutual fund flow for the period spanning between 1998 and 2012. We assess the dynamics of the volatility-flow linkage by employing a bivariate VAR model with the GARCH approach which allows for long memory in the mean and the variance equations. In addition to the sub-samples obtained in chapter 3, we generate two measurements of volatility. Our baseline results indicate a variety of bidirectional mixed causalities between market return volatility and aggregate mutual fund flow in several sub-samples. In addition, we observe a negative/positive bi-directional relationship between volatility and flow in the rest of the sub-periods. Summarizing, a range of our findings are in line with the empirical underpinnings that most likely predict a significant linkage between the aforementioned variables. Finally, most of the bidirectional effects are found to be quite robust to the dynamics of the various GARCH processes employed in this thesis.

Legislation requires substantially lowered emissions and that all trucks manufactured are equipped with an On-Board Diagnosis (OBD) system. One approach for designing an OBD system is to use model based diagnosis and residual generation. At Scania CV AB, a method for automatic design of a diagnosis system from a model has been developed but there are still possibilities for improvements to get more and better residual generators. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze and improve the existing method. A theoretic outline of two methods using different causality assumptions is presented and the differences are analyzed and discussed. Stability of residual generators is analyzed and a method for constructing stable residual generators and its consequences for the diagnosis system is presented. Methods using integral and derivative causality are found not to be equivalent for all dynamic systems, resulting in that a diagnosis system utilizing both methods would be preferred for detectability reasons. A stable residual generator can be constructed from an unstable residual generator. The method for stabilizing a residual generator affects the fault sensitivity of the residual generator and the fault detectability properties of the diagnosis system. / Lagkrav kräver väsentligt sänkta emissionsnivåer och att alla tillverkade lastbilar är utrustade med ett system för On-Board Diagnosis (OBD). Ett sätt att konstruera ett OBD system är att använda modellbaserad diagnos och residualgenerering. På Scania CV AB har en metod för automatisk konstruktion av ett diagnossystem utifrån en modell utvecklats, men det finns utrymme för bättringar som leder till att fler och bättre residualgeneratorer konstrueras. Huvudsyftet med examensarbetet är att analysera och förbättra den existerande metoden. En teoretisk beskrivning av två metoder som använder sig av olika kausalitet presenteras och skillnaderna analyseras och diskuteras. Stabiliteten hos residualgeneratorer analyseras och en metod för att konstruera stabila residualgeneratorer och dess konsekvenser för diagnossystemet presenteras. Metoder som använder sig av integrerande respektive deriverande kausalitet visar sig inte vara ekvivalenta för alla dynamiska system, vilket resulterar i att ett diagnossystem som använder sig av båda kausaliteterna är att föredra i ett diagnossystem med avseende på detekterbarhet. En stabil residualgenerator kan konstrueras från en instabil residualgenerator. Metoden för att stabilisera en residualgenerator påverkar felkänsligheten hos residualgeneratorn och feldetekterbarheten hos diagnossystemet.

This thesis explores various perspectives on quantum phenomena, and how our understanding of these phenomena is informed by the study of general probabilistic theories. Particular attention is given to quantum nonlocality, and its interaction with areas of physical and mathematical interest such as entropy, reversible dynamics, information-based games and the idea of negative probability. We begin with a review of non-signaling distributions and convex operational theories, including “black box” descriptions of experiments and the mathematics of convex vector spaces. In Chapter 3 we derive various classical and quantum-like quasiprobabilistic representations of arbitrary non-signaling distributions. Previously, results in which the density operator is allowed to become non-positive [1] have proved useful in derivations of quantum theory from physical requirements [2]; we derive a dual result in which the measurement operators instead are allowed to become non-positive, and show that the generation of any non-signaling distribution is possible using a fixed separable state with negligible correlation. We also derive two distinct “quasi-local” models of non-signaling correlations. Chapter 4 investigates non-local games, in particular the game known as Information Causality. By analysing the probability of success in this game, we prove the conjectured tightness of a bound given in [3] concerning how well entanglement allows us to perform the task of random access coding, and introduce a quadratic bias bound which seems to capture a great deal of information about the set of quantum-achievable correlations. By reformulating Information Causality in terms of entropies, we find that a sensible measure of entropy precludes many general probabilistic theories whose non-locality is stronger than that of quantum theory. Chapter 5 explores the role that reversible transitivity (the principle that any two pure states are joined by a reversible transformation) plays as a characteristic feature of quantum theory. It has previously been shown that in Boxworld, the theory allowing for the full set of non-signaling correlations, any reversible transformation on a restricted class of composite systems is merely a composition of relabellings of measurement choices and outcomes, and permutations of subsystems [4]. We develop a tabular description of Boxworld states and effects first introduced in [5], and use this to extend this reversibility result to any composite Boxworld system in which none of the subsystems are classical.

This study sets out to reclaim the ontological epistemology of Saint Thomas Aquinas which serves as a unifier of knowledge in being, within the philosophical milieu of being’s forgottenness. Post-Humean and Kantian thought made appearance rather than being solely accessible to the thinking subject. The consequence has been the marginalisation of being as reflected in truth – influenced by scientistic and postmodern paradigms – which has contributed to both the paucity of meaningless metaphysics, and the conceptualisation of science and faith as necessarily opposing categories. To the end of establishing that science and faith have points of intersection, it is argued that the reclamation of Thomist natural philosophy leads to the defence of a clarified form of realism. Establishing the “real” implies that the metaphysical dimensions of the problem of existence can be explored. Within this realist model, the “pre-Modern” Thomistic theory of “scientia” is employed to bring physical and natural science and metaphysics into relationship as components of true knowledge of being. Consequently, the author puts forth that “scientia” is exemplified in, amongst others, the particular science of cosmology since the rudimentary point of engagement between physical and metaphysical science occurs in the act of creation, that is, when being comes into existence. Whilst metaphysics is often disregarded, it is consistently proposed that the causal nature of being demands – by its presence – a more robust account than physical and natural science can offer. The contribution made by this work rests in its ontologically-formed epistemic typology whereby “hard” science and faith are related in boundary areas of knowledge, that is, when metaphysical problems emerge from within physical and natural science. By reimaging “hard” science and reasonable faith within “scientia”, both approaches are conceived as adequating to truth when their content is reflective of being. / Thesis (DPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / lk2014 / Philosophy / DPhil / Unrestricted

This work analyzes an interrelationship between stock indices S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, HSI, Nikkei, BSI and PX in a time period from September 2004 till March 2010. Such an interrelationship has already been examined and a dominating position of American indices has been found. This influence was stronger during a financial crisis. Because the examined time period covers both financial crisis and the period before, the work studies their interrelationship in the whole period and at the end in the time period before financial crisis. The influence of one stock index on the other can be cause by several factors: (i) dominance of influencing stock index, (ii) efficient market and (iii) financial crisis. As the reaction of stock index is evoked from new information, the intention of this work is to take into account nonsychronous trading of stocks exchanges. Therefore I explored those exchange stocks closing earlier than the others start in two ways by respecting the time lag and by non-respecting the time lag. The interrelationship between the indices was modeled with help of VAR models and proved by Granger causality test.