Criminal networks exploit vulnerabilities in the global financial system, using it as a conduit to launder criminal proceeds. Law enforcement agencies, financial institutions, and regulatory organizations often scrutinize voluminous financial records for suspicious activities and criminal conduct as part of anti-money laundering investigations. However, such studies are narrowly focused on incidents and triggered by tip-offs rather than data mining insights. This research models cross-border financial flows using a network theoretic approach and proposes a symmetric-key encryption algorithm to preserve information privacy in multi-dimensional data sets. The newly developed tools will enable regulatory organizations, financial institutions, and law enforcement agencies to identify suspicious activity and criminal conduct in cross-border financial transactions. Anti-money laundering, which comprises laws, regulations, and procedures to combat money laundering, requires financial institutions to verify and identify their customers in various circumstances and monitor suspicious activity transactions. Instituting anti-money laundering laws and regulations in a country carries the benefit of creating a data-rich environment, thereby facilitating non-classical analytical strategies and tools. Graph theory offers an elegant way of representing cross-border payments/receipts between resident and non-resident parties (nodes), with links representing the parties' transactions. The network representations provide potent data mining tools, facilitating a better understanding of transactional patterns that may constitute suspicious transactions and criminal conduct. Using network science to analyze large and complex data sets to detect anomalies in the data set is fast becoming more important and exciting than merely learning about its structure. This research leverages advanced technology to construct and visualize the cross-border financial flows' network structure, using a directed and dual-weighted bipartite graph. Furthermore, the develops a centrality measure for the proposed cross-border financial flows network using a method based on matrix multiplication to answer the question, "Which resident/non-resident nodes are the most important in the cross-border financial flows network?" The answer to this question provides data mining insights about the network structure. The proposed network structure, centrality measure, and characterization using degree distributions can enable financial institutions and regulatory organizations to identify dominant nodes in complex multi-dimensional data sets. Most importantly, the results showed that the research provides transaction monitoring capabilities that allow the setting of customer segmentation criteria, complementing the built-in transaction-specific triggers methods for detecting suspicious activity transactions. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2021. / Banking Sector Education and Training Authority (BANKSETA) / UP Postgraduate Bursary / Industrial and Systems Engineering / PhD / Unrestricted

This work proposes a three-state microscopic opinion formation model based on the stochastic dynamics of the three-state majority-vote model. In order to mimic the heterogeneous compositions of societies, the agent-based model considers two different types of individuals: noise agents and contrarians. We propose an extension of the model for the simulation of the dynamics of financial markets. Agents are represented as nodes in a network of interactions and they can assume any of three distinct possible states (e.g. buy, sell or remain inactive, in a financial context). The time evolution of the state of an agent is dictated by probabilistic dynamics that include both local and global influences. A noise agent is subject to local interactions, tending to assume the majority state of its nearest neighbors with probability 1-q (dissenting from it with a probability given by the noise parameter q). A contrarian is subject to a global interaction with the society as a whole, tending to assume the state of the global minority of said society with probability 1 -q (dissenting from it with probability q). The stochastic dynamics are simulated on complex networks of different topologies, including square lattices, Barabási-Albert networks, Erdös-Rényi random graphs and small-world networks built according to a link rewiring scheme. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to study the second-order phase transition of the system on small-world networks. We perform finite-size scaling analysis and calculate the phase diagram of the system, as well as the standard critical exponents for different values of the rewiring probability. We conclude that the rewiring of the lattice drives the system to different universality classes than that of the three-state majority-vote model on a two dimensional square lattice. The model’s extension for financial markets exhibits the typical qualitative and quantitative features of real financial time series, including heavy-tailed return distributions, volatility clustering and long-term memory for the absolute values of the returns. The histograms of returns are fitted by means of coupled exponential distributions, quantitatively revealing transitions between leptokurtic, mesokurtic and platykurtic regimes in terms of a nonlinear statistical coupling and a shape parameter which describe the complexity of the system.

Systems such as the power grid, world wide web (WWW), and internet are categorized as complex systems because of the presence of a large number of interacting elements. For example, the WWW is estimated to have a billion webpages and understanding the dynamics of such a large number of individual agents (whose individual interactions might not be fully known) is a challenging task. Complex network representations of these systems have proved to be of great utility. Statistical physics is the study of emergence of macroscopic properties of systems from the characteristics of the interactions between individual molecules. Hence, statistical physics of complex networks has been an effective approach to study these systems. In this dissertation, I have used statistical physics to study two distinct phenomena in complex systems: i) Cascading failures and ii) Shortest paths in complex networks. Understanding cascading failures is considered to be one of the “holy grails“ in the study of complex systems such as the power grid, transportation networks, and economic systems. Studying failures of these systems as percolation on complex networks has proved to be insightful. Previously, cascading failures have been studied extensively using two different models: k-core percolation and interdependent networks. The first part of this work combines the two models into a general model, solves it analytically, and validates the theoretical predictions through extensive computer simulations. The phase diagram of the percolation transition has been systematically studied as one varies the average local k-core threshold and the coupling between networks. The phase diagram of the combined processes is very rich and includes novel features that do not appear in the models which study each of the processes separately. For example, the phase diagram consists of first- and second-order transition regions separated by two tricritical lines that merge together and enclose a two-stage transition region. In the two-stage transition, the size of the giant component undergoes a first-order jump at a certain occupation probability followed by a continuous second-order transition at a smaller occupation probability. Furthermore, at certain fixed interdependencies, the percolation transition cycles from first-order to second-order to two-stage to first-order as the k-core threshold is increased. We setup the analytical equations describing the phase boundaries of the two-stage transition region and we derive the critical exponents for each type of transition. Understanding the shortest paths between individual elements in systems like communication networks and social media networks is important in the study of information cascades in these systems. Often, large heterogeneity can be present in the connections between nodes in these networks. Certain sets of nodes can be more highly connected among themselves than with the nodes from other sets. These sets of nodes are often referred to as ’communities’. The second part of this work studies the effect of the presence of communities on the distribution of shortest paths in a network using a modular Erdős-Rényi network model. In this model, the number of communities and the degree of modularity of the network can be tuned using the parameters of the model. We find that the model reaches a percolation threshold while tuning the degree of modularity of the network and the distribution of the shortest paths in the network can be used as an indicator of how the communities are connected.

No description available.

We present a rigorous yet accessible introduction to structures on finite sets foundational for a formal study of complex networks. This includes a thorough treatment of binary relations, distance spaces, their properties and similarities. Correspondences between relations and graphs are given and a brief introduction to graph theory is followed by a more detailed study of cohesiveness and centrality. We show how graph degeneracy is equivalent to the concept of k-cores, which give a measure of the cohesiveness or interconnectedness of a subgraph. We then further extend this to d-cores of directed graphs. After a brief introduction to topology, focusing on topological spaces from distances, we present a historical discussion on the early developments of algebraic topology. This is followed by a more formal introduction to simplicial homology where we define the homology groups. In the context of algebraic topology, the d-cores of a digraph give rise to a partially ordered set of subgraphs, leading to a set of filtrations that is two-dimensional in nature. Directed clique complexes of digraphs are defined in order to encode the directionality of complete subdigraphs. Finally, we apply these methods to the neuronal network of C.elegans. Persistent homology with respect to directed core filtrations as well as robustness of homology to targeted edge percolations in different directed cores is analyzed. Much importance is placed on intuition and on unifying methods of such dispersed disciplines as sociology and network neuroscience, by rooting them in pure mathematics. / Vi presenterar en rigorös men lättillgänglig introduktion till de abstrakta strukturer på ändliga mängder som är grundläggande för en formell studie av komplexa nätverk. Detta inkluderar en grundlig redogörelse av binära relationer och distansrum, deras egenskaper samt likheter. Korrespondenser mellan olika typer av relationer och grafer förklaras och en kort introduktion till grafteori följs av en mer detaljerad studie av sammanhållning och centralitet. Vi visar hur begreppet 'degeneracy' är ekvivalent med begreppet k-kärnor (eng: k-cores), vilket ger ett mått på sammanhållningen hos en delgraf. Vi utökar sedan detta till konceptet d-kärnor (eng: d-cores) för riktade grafer. Efter en kort introduktion till topologi med fokus på topologiska rum från distansrum, så presenterar vi en historisk diskussion kring den tidiga utvecklingen av algebraisk topologi. Detta följs av en mer formell introduktion till homologi, där vi bl.a. definierar homologigrupperna. Vi definierar sedan så kallade riktade klick-komplex som simplistiska komplex (eng: simplicial complexes) från riktade grafer, där d-kärnorna av en riktad graf då ger upphov till filtrerade komplex i två parametrar. Persistent homologi med avseende på dessa riktade kärnfiltreringar såväl som robusthet mot kantpercolationer i olika kärnor analyseras sedan för det neurala nätverket hos C.Elegans. Stor vikt läggs vid intuition och förståelse, samt vid att förena metodiker för så spridda discipliner som sociologi och neurovetenskap.

No description available.

Human mobility is a complex phenomenon emerging from the nexus between social, demographic, economic, political and environmental systems. In this thesis we develop novel mathematical models for the study of complex systems, to improve our understanding of mobility patterns and enhance our ability to predict local and global flows for real-world applications.The first and second chapters introduce the concept of human mobility from the point of view of complex systems science, showing the relation between human movements and their predominant drivers. In the second chapter in particular, we will illustrate the state of the art and a summary of our scientific contributions. The rest of the thesis is divided into three parts: structure, causes and effects.The third chapter is about the structure of a complex system: it represents our methodological contribution to Network Science, and in particular to the problem of network reconstruction and topological analysis. We propose a novel methodological framework for the definition of the topological descriptors of a complex network, when the underlying structure is uncertain. The most used topological descriptors are redefined – even at the level of a single node – as probability distributions, thus eluding the reconstruction phase. With this work we have provided a new approach to study the topological characteristics of complex networks from a probabilistic perspective. The forth chapter deals with the effects of human mobility: it represents our scientific contribution to the debate about the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences. We present a complex-causal analysis to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and human activity, considered as the components of a complex socio-environmental system. In particular, we derive the network of relations between different flavors of human mobility data and other social and environmental variables. Moreover, we studied the effects of the restrictions imposed on human mobility – and human activities in general – on the environmental system. Our results highlight a statistically significant qualitative improvement in the environmental variable of interest, but this improvement was not caused solely by the restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, such as the lockdown.The fifth and sixth chapters deal with the modelling of causes of human mobility: the former is a concise chapter that illustrate the phenomenon of human displacements caused by environmental disasters. Specifically, we analysed data from different sources to understand the factors involved in shaping mobility patterns after tropical cyclones. The latter presents the Feature-Enriched Radiation Model (FERM), our generalization of the Radiation Model which is a state-of-the-art mathematical model for human mobility. While the original Radiation Model considers only the population as a proxy for mobility drivers, the FERM can handle any type of exogenous information that is used to define the attractiveness of different geographical locations. The model exploits this information to divert the mobility flows towards the most attractive locations, balancing the role of the population distribution. The mobility patterns at different scales can be reshaped, following the exogenous drivers encoded in the features, without neglecting the global configuration of the system.

For complex computer networks with many tunable parameters and network performance objectives, the task of selecting the ideal network operating state is difficult. To improve the performance of these kinds of networks, this research proposes the idea of the cognitive network. A cognitive network is a network composed of elements that, through learning and reasoning, dynamically adapt to varying network conditions in order to optimize end-to-end performance. In a cognitive network, decisions are made to meet the requirements of the network as a whole, rather than the individual network components. We examine the cognitive network concept by first providing a definition and then outlining the difference between it and other cognitive and cross-layer technologies. From this definition, we develop a general, three-layer cognitive network framework, based loosely on the framework used for cognitive radio. In this framework, we consider the possibility of a cognitive process consisting of one or more cognitive elements, software agents that operate somewhere between autonomy and cooperation. To understand how to design a cognitive network within this framework we identify three critical design decisions that affect the performance of the cognitive network: the selfishness of the cognitive elements, their degree of ignorance, and the amount of control they have over the network. To evaluate the impact of these decisions, we created a metric called the price of a feature, defined as the ratio of the network performance with a certain design decision to the performance without the feature. To further aid in the design of cognitive networks, we identify classes of cognitive networks that are structurally similar to one another. We examined two of these classes: the potential class and the quasi-concave class. Both classes of networks will converge to Nash Equilibrium under selfish behavior and in the quasi-concave class this equilibrium is both Pareto and globally optimal. Furthermore, we found the quasi-concave class has other desirable properties, reacting well to the absence of certain kinds of information and degrading gracefully under reduced network control. In addition to these analytical, high level contributions, we develop cognitive networks for two open problems in resource management for self-organizing networks, validating and illustrating the cognitive network approach. For the first problem, a cognitive network is shown to increase the lifetime of a wireless multicast route by up to 125\%. For this problem, we show that the price of selfishness and control are more significant than the price of ignorance. For the second problem, a cognitive network minimizes the transmission power and spectral impact of a wireless network topology under static and dynamic conditions. The cognitive network, utilizing a distributed, selfish approach, minimizes the maximum power in the topology and reduces (on average) the channel usage to within 12\% of the minimum channel assignment. For this problem, we investigate the price of ignorance under dynamic networks and the cost of maintaining knowledge in the network. Today's computer networking technology will not be able to solve the complex problems that arise from increasingly bandwidth-intensive applications competing for scarce resources. Cognitive networks have the potential to change this trend by adding intelligence to the network. This work introduces the concept and provides a foundation for future investigation and implementation. / Ph. D.

Networks are all around us, all the time. From the biochemistry of our cells to the web of friendships across the planet. From the circuitry of modern electronics to chains of historical events. A network is the result of the forces that shaped it. Thus the principles of network formation can be, to some extent, deciphered from the network itself. All such information comprises the structure of the network. The study of network structure is the core of modern network science. This thesis centres around three aspects of network structure: What kinds of network structures are there and how can they be measured? How can we build models for network formation that give the structure of networks in the real world? How does the network structure affect dynamical systems confined to the networks? These questions are discussed using a variety of statistical, analytical and modelling techniques developed by physicists, mathematicians, biologists, chemists, psychologists, sociologists and anthropologists. My own research touches all three questions. In this thesis I present works trying to answer: What is the best way to protect a network against sinister attacks? How do groups form in friendship networks? Where do traffic jams appear in a communication network? How is cellular metabolism organised? How do Swedes flirt on the Internet? . . . and many other questions.

Complex networks are an important class of models used to describe the behaviour of a very broad category of systems which appear in different fields of science ranging from physics, biology and statistics to computer science and other disciplines. This set of models includes spin systems on a graph, neural networks, decision networks, spreading disease, financial trade, social networks and all systems which can be represented as interacting agents on some sort of graph architecture. In this thesis, by using the theoretical framework of statistical mechanics, the equilibrium and the dynamical behaviour of such systems is studied. For the equilibrium case, after presenting the region graph free energy approximation, the Survey Propagation method, previously used to investi- gate the low temperature phase of complex systems on tree-like topologies, is extended to the case of loopy graph architectures. For time-dependent behaviour, both discrete-time and continuous-time dynamics are considered. It is shown how to extend the cavity method ap- proach from a tool used to study equilibrium properties of complex systems to the discrete-time dynamical scenario. A closure scheme of the dynamic message-passing equation based on a Markovian approximations is presented. This allows to estimate non-equilibrium marginals of spin models on a graph with reversible dynamics. As an alternative to this approach, an extension of region graph variational free energy approximations to the non-equilibrium case is also presented. Non-equilibrium functionals that, when minimized with constraints, lead to approximate equations for out-of-equilibrium marginals of general spin models are introduced and discussed. For the continuous-time dynamics a novel approach that extends the cav- ity method also to this case is discussed. The main result of this part is a Cavity Master Equation which, together with an approximate version of the Master Equation, constitutes a closure scheme to estimate non-equilibrium marginals of continuous-time spin models. The investigation of dynamics of spin systems is concluded by applying a quasi-equilibrium approach to a sim- ple case. A way to test self-consistently the assumptions of the method as well as its limits is discussed. In the final part of the thesis, analogies and differences between the graph- ical model approaches discussed in the manuscript and causal analysis in statistics are presented. / <p>QC 20160904</p>