Esta dissertação procurou comparar os modelos CAPM, três fatores de Fama e French (1993) e quatro fatores de Carhart (1997) com o objetivo de verificar qual possui o maior poder de explicação das variações dos retornos dos ativos no mercado brasileiro. O estudo considerou 512 ações listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo no período de 1995-2011. Utilizou-se metodologia preditiva, que aplica regressão em dois estágios - série temporal e corte transversal - com erro padrão calculado de acordo com técnica desenvolvida por Fama e Macbeth (1973). Foram calculados os retornos mensais das ações, que foram agrupadas em carteiras e utilizadas como variável dependente nas regressões. Já foram utilizadas como variáveis independentes os fatores carteira de mercado, tamanho, índice book-to-market e momento. Os resultados observados indicaram que, apesar de o modelo de três fatores de Fama e French (1993) ter apresentado maior poder preditivo em relação ao de quatro fatores de Carhart (1997) e ao CAPM, nenhum dos modelos foi suficiente para explicar as variações dos retornos das carteiras formadas. Os fatores tamanho e momento não foram estatisticamente significantes, o que indicou que não foi possível observar no mercado brasileiro os mesmos efeitos documentados por Fama e French (1993) e Carhart (1997). Já o fator mercado foi significante somente nos modelos com intercepto, e o fator índice B/M foi significante somente nos modelos sem intercepto. O intercepto foi fortemente significante nos modelos de três e quatro fatores, o que sinaliza, juntamente com o baixo poder de explicação dos modelos, que outros fatores não incluídos nos modelos, seriam capazes de explicar as variações dos retornos dos ativos. / This dissertation seeks to compare the CAPM model, three factor model of Fama and French (1993) and four factor model of Carhart (1997). Its goal is to verify the one that has the best capability to explain the stock return variations in the Brazilian market. This study considered 512 stocks listed in São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA) along the period 1995-2011. Predictive methodology, which applies a two stage regression (time series and cross-sectional), was used. The standard error was calculated in accordance to the technique developed by Fama and Macbeth (1973). Stocks monthly returns were calculated and grouped in portfolios that were employed afterwards as dependent variable in the regressions. The market portfolio factor, the size factor, the book-to-market index factor and the momentum factor were used as independent variables. The observed results indicated that, despite the tree factor model of Fama and French (1993) had showed a better predictability over the four factor model of Carhart (1997) and CAPM, none of these models were enough to explain the return variation of the formed portfolios. The size and momentum effects weren\'t statistically significant, which indicates that it was not observed, in the Brazilian market, the same effects documented by Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997). The market factor was significant only in the models with the intercept, and the B/M index factor was significant only in the models without the intercept. The intercept itself was strongly significant in the tree and four factor models, which, combined with the poor power of explaining the models, signalizes that other factors not included in the models would be able to explain the stock return variations.

Este trabalho se baseia na análise de 125 Laudos de Avaliação emitidos no contexto de Ofertas Públicas de Aquisição (OPAs) no Brasil realizadas no período entre 2006 e 2017. As OPAs movimentaram dezenas de bilhões de Reais, envolvendo companhias avaliadas, no total, em mais de R$ 300 bilhões. Os objetivos principais são três: (i) mapear as metodologias de avaliação utilizadas, (ii) identificar erros cometidos, comparando as metodologias utilizadas com o referencial teórico e (iii) medir vieses de posição na preparação das avaliações. Os resultados indicam (i) diversidade de metodologias aplicadas, o que pode gerar inconsistência e viés nos resultados, (ii) existência de erros, inclusive relacionados a conceitos básicos de avaliação de empresas e (iii) viés de posição por parte dos avaliadores, especialmente empresas independentes de consultoria, que tendem a emitir resultados consistentes com os interesses dos contratantes, potencialmente causando expropriação dos minoritários. Tais resultados mostram a necessidade de aumentar tanto a qualidade técnica dos avaliadores como o nível de controle sobre possíveis conflitos de agência. Possíveis mitigadores incluem a aplicação de legislação e regulação mais rigorosas, com maior controle do processo de avaliação pelos minoritários, e exigências relacionadas à qualificação técnica dos avaliadores, às metodologias aplicadas e à responsabilização do avaliador. / This work is based on the analysis of 125 valuation reports (Laudos de Avaliação) issued in the context of tender offers (OPAs) in Brazil during the 2006-2017 period. Such offers had a total value of tens billions of Reais, with firms valued at over R$ 300 billion. The main objectives are (i) describe the valuation methodologies, (ii) identify errors, comparing the adopted methodologies with the theoretical framework and (iii) measure valuation biases. The results indicate (i) diversity of methodologies used by practitioners, possibly causing inconsistencies and biases in the results, (ii) existence of errors, some of them related to basic valuation concepts and (iii) valuation biases, especially in reports prepared by independent consulting firms, which tend to issue results consistent with the controlling shareholders\' interests, potentially causing expropriation of the minority shareholders. Such results indicate the need to improve the practitioners\' technical quality as well as the controls against agency conflicts. Possible mitigators include stricter legislation and regulation, with greater control by minority shareholders of the valuation process, and minimum requirements regarding the practioners\' technical qualification, acceptable methodologies and accountability of the report\'s issuer.

Using an APT model where global temperature shocks are a systematically priced factor, the risk premium is significant and positive. Evidence is provided that positive exposure to temperature shocks is related to increasing CO2 emissions by industry. The global impact on the cost of equity could be as high as 2.8% per year, implying a global GDP loss of $2.2 Trillion per year due to global temperature shocks.

Yes / The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS) and The Scottish Accountancy Trust for Education and Research (SATER)

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This study examines how diversification changes firms' key characteristics, which consequently alter firms' value. The reason why I focus on this topic is because of the mixed findings in literature about the valuation effect of diversification. This study offers deeper insights to the influence of diversification on important valuation factors that are already identified in finance literature. Specifically, it examines if diversification affects firms' information asymmetry problem, firms' cost of capital and cash flow, and firms' production efficiency. The study looks at both the financial industry and non-financial industry and the chapters are arranged in the following order. Firstly, empirical studies show that investors do not value BHCs' pursuit of non-interest income generating activities and yet these activities have demonstrated a dramatic pace of growth in the recent decades. An interesting question is what factors drive the discontent of the investors with the diversification endeavors of the BHCs in non-interest income activities. The first chapter examines the subject from the view point of information opaqueness, which is unique in the banking industry in terms of its intensity. We propose that increased diversification into non-interest income activities deepens information asymmetry, making BHCs more opaque and curtailing their value, as a result. Two important results are obtained in support of this proposition. First, analysts' forecasts are less accurate and more dispersed for the BHCs with greater diversity of non-interest income activities, indicating that information asymmetry problem is more severe for these BHCs. Second, stock market reactions to earning announcements by these BHCs signaling new information to the market are larger, indicating that more information is revealed to the market by each announcement. These findings indicate that increased diversity of non-interest income activities is associated with more severe information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders and, hence, a lower valuation by shareholder. Secondly, since Lang and Stulz (1994) and Berger and Ofek (1995), corporate literature has taken the position that industrial diversification is associated with a firm value discount. However, the validity and the sources of the diversification discount are still highly debated. In particular, extant studies limit themselves to cash flow effects, totally overlooking the cost of capital as a factor determining firm value. Inspired by Lamont and Polk (2001), the second chapter examines how industrial and international diversification change the conglomerates' cost of capital (equity and debt), and thereby the firm value. Our empirical results, based on a sample of Russell 3000 firms over the 1998-2004 period, show that industrial (international) diversification is associated with a lower (higher) firm cost of capital. These findings also hold for firms fully financed with equity. In addition, international diversification is found to be associated with a lower operating cash flow while industrial diversification doesn't alter it. These results indicate that industrial (international) diversification is associated with firm value enhancement (destruction). Given the fact that the majority of the firms involved in industrial diversification also diversify internationally, failing to separate these two dimensions of diversification may result in mistakenly attributing the diversification discount to industrial diversification. Thirdly, financial conglomerates have been increasingly diversifying their business into banking, securities, and insurance activities, especially after the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA, 1999). The third chapter examines whether bank holding company (BHC) diversification is associated with improvement in production efficiency. By applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA), the Malmquist Index of productivity, and total factor productivity change as a decomposed factor of the index, are calculated for a sample of BHCs over the period 1997-2007. The following results are obtained. First, technical efficiency is negatively associated with activity diversification and the effect is primarily driven by BHCs that did not diversify through Section 20 subsidiaries before GLBA. Second, the degree of change in diversification over time does not affect the total factor productivity change but is negatively associated with technical efficiency change over time. This latter effect is also primarily shown on BHCs that did not have Section 20 subsidiaries before GLBA. Therefore, it can be concluded that diversification is on average associated with lower production efficiency of BHCs, especially those BHCs without first-mover advantage obtained through Section 20 subsidiaries. These chapters explores the possible channels through which diversification could alter firms' valuation. They contribute to the literature by offering further knowledge about the effect of diversification. / Business Administration

Voluntary disclosure theory suggests a firm increasing its disclosures should lower the information asymmetry component of its cost of capital. Empirical results on specific disclosures are mixed though, as individual disclosures may not provide enough value to investors in disclosure rich environments. Salary expense disclosures, unlike some other cost disclosures, may provide insight into increasing firm risk leading to an increased cost of capital, as employee pay has been shown to increase in response to leverage increases. I examine whether salary expense disclosures provide valuable information to investors, as measured through a disclosing firm's cost of capital, and I examine the channels through which the disclosure provides the information. I find that firms that disclose salary expense receive a lowered cost of capital if they are disclosing more stable cost structures, and the value of this disclosed information relates to the relative risk associated with the disclosed cost structures. I also find the propensity for firms to initiate disclosure increases as more analysts follow the firm and these initiating firms receive a lower cost of capital in exchange for their initial disclosure. Additionally, this lower cost of capital for initial disclosers is not based on the relative stability of the disclosed cost structure. / Doctor of Philosophy / Theory suggests when a company voluntarily discloses information that is useful to investors, the investors will pay more for that company's stock which equates to a lower cost of capital for the company. Empirical results on individual disclosures are mixed though, as each disclosure may not provide enough value to investors in environments where companies disclose a large amount of information. Salary expense disclosures, unlike some other cost disclosures, may provide insight into increasing firm risk leading to an increased cost of capital for the disclosing companies, as employee pay has been shown to increase in response to leverage increases. I examine whether salary expense disclosures provide valuable information to investors, as measured through a disclosing firm's cost of capital, and I examine the channels through which the disclosure provides the information. I find that firms that disclose salary expense receive a lowered cost of capital if they are disclosing more stable cost structures, and the value of this disclosed information relates to the relative risk associated with the disclosed cost structures. I also find the propensity for firms to initiate disclosure increases as more analysts follow the firm and these initiating firms receive a lower cost of capital in exchange for their initial disclosure. Additionally, this lower cost of capital for initial disclosers is not based on the relative stability of the disclosed cost structure.

Neste ano a Anatel começou a adotar um novo modelo para as tarifas de interconexão das diversas áreas de telecomunicações do Brasil. Nesse modelo o WACC e o CAPM têm um papel central no cálculo da remuneração do capital empregado em cada setor. No caso do CAPM, entretanto, há muitas controvérsias sobre a sua aplicabilidade a países emergentes. ESTRADA (2002, 2003), por exemplo, encontrou resultados mais plausíves para esses países utilizando o modelo D-CAPM, uma variação do CAPM baseada no risco Downside. Sabe-se, por outro lado, que o CAPM é uma composição média entre os riscos Downside e Upside. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho é propor uma generalização do CAPM (Gw-CAPM), baseada em uma ponderação dos riscos Downside e Upside, e analisar a existência de modelos intermediários que estimem melhor o retorno do mercado local de telefonia fixa do Brasil, com vistas à nova orientação a custos adotada. Outro objetivo é elaborar uma metodologia específica para a telefonia fixa e aplicar o Gw-CAPM no cálculo do custo de capital próprio, analisando se há ou não diferenças significativas no resultado final do custo de capital do setor. Na avaliação do poder de estimação dos modelos utilizou-se o índice de Jensen e o REQM. Mostra-se, assim, que realmente há uma determinada combinação entre os riscos Downside e Upside que estima melhor o retorno das operadoras do setor e do mercado de telefonia fixa como um todo. Além disso, conclui-se que há diferenças significativas no cálculo do custo de capital quando o modelo utilizado é o Gw-CAPM. / This year Anatel began to adopt a new model to the interconnection tariffs to the several telecommunication areas of Brazil. According to this model, the WACC and the CAPM have a central role on determining the remuneration of the investment on each sector. However, there are much controversy about the applicability of CAPM to the emergent countries. For example, Estrada (2002, 2003) found more reasonable results to these countries using the D-CAPM, a variation of CAPM based on the Downside risk. It is also known that the CAPM is an average composition between the Donwside and Upside risks. The purpose of this work is to propose a generalization of the CAPM (Gw-CAPM), based on the weight of the Downside and Upside risks and analyse the existence of intermediate models that can evaluate more precisely the return of the brazilian local market of fixed telephony, aiming the new cost orientation adopted. Other objective is to build a specific methodology to the fixed telephony and apply the Gw-CAPM on the determination of the own capital cost, verifying whether there are significant differences on the final result of the sector capital cost. In the evaluation of the valuation power of the models, the Jensen index and the REQM were used. It is shown, therefore, that there is really a certain combination between the Downside and the Upside risks that evaluates more accurately the return of the sector operating companies and the fixed telephony market as a whole. In addition to this, we conclude that there are significant differences on determining the cost of capital when the model used is the Gw-CAPM.

Este trabalho descreve as práticas usuais dos avaliadores de ativos do mercado brasileiro ao estimar o valor do custo de capital próprio na composição da taxa de desconto dos fluxos de caixa a ser empregada no método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado. O estudo consiste de duas etapas principais. Na primeira foi feito um delineamento descritivo, explicitando-se quais são os métodos utilizados na estimação do custo de capital próprio, e como são obtidos os parâmetros que alimentam esses métodos. Na segunda fase do trabalho, foram realizados testes de hipótese de relações entre variáveis pertinentes no processo de estimação da taxa de desconto do capital próprio, buscando entender as relações de causa e efeito dos fenômenos presentes no processo. Para que os objetivos desejados fossem alcançados nas fases citadas, foi realizado um levantamento de dados primários, no qual se obteve uma amostra de 93 avaliações realizadas entre 2002 e 2006, tendo sido a sua maioria, aproximadamente 70%, realizadas em 2006. Em seguida foi feito um tratamento estatístico dos dados levantados, utilizando-se o aplicativo SPSS versão 13.0, com o propósito de agrupar e quantificar os resultados obtidos e de estabelecer relações pertinentes entre as variáveis envolvidas no processo de estimação do custo do capital próprio. Ao final, os resultados atingidos mostram a predominância de duas metodologias distintas: o CAPM e o Método de Prêmios de Risco. Para cada um dos métodos observou-se um padrão predominante de determinação dos parâmetros que viabilizam a metodologia. Além disso, foi verificada a existência de um forte viés de posição do avaliador ao selecionar quais fatores de risco incluir na metodologia. Uma análise derradeira da formação da taxa de desconto mostrou a sua forte relação com o porte do ativo avaliado, o que ratifica o conceito já preconizado em diversas publicações sobre o assunto, de que o prêmio por porte do ativo avaliado é um fator a ser levado em consideração. / This work describes the usual practices of asset valuators in Brazilian Market when estimating the equity capital cost used to compose the cost of capital to discount future cash flows through the Discounted Cash Flow Method. The study consists of two main blocks. Firstly, a general guideline was constructed, explaining the principal methods used for equity cost estimation and how these methods? parameters are obtained. In the second phase of the study, hypothesis tests concerning relations among relevant variables of the process were carried out, searching to identify the cause-effect relations among the phenomena present in the process. So that the objectives were reached in the mentioned phases, a primary data survey was carried out, obtaining a sample of 93 valuations made between 2002 and 2006. About 70% of these valuations were appraised in 2006. Therefore, a statistic data analysis took place with use of SPSS 13.0 version, with the objective of grouping and quantifying the survey results and also set relevant relations among involved variables in the equity cost of capital estimation. In the end, the main results show a predominance of two distinct methodologies: CAPM and Build-up Models. For each of them it was possible to identify a predominant standard of parameter estimation. Besides that, it was possible to verify the existence of a strong position bias on the analyst part, when deciding which risk premia to consider in the model. A final analysis of the discount rate composition showed strong relation with the appraised asset size, which confirms the popular concept in many publications, that size premium is a risk factor to be taken into account when valuating assets.