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Planification avec préférences basée sur la Théorie de l'Utilité Multi-Attribut couplée à une intégrale de Choquet : application à l'interopérabilité des organisations en gestion de crise / Preference-based planning using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory along with a Choquet integral : application to organizations' interoperability in crisis managementBidoux, Loïc 14 June 2016 (has links)
Cette étude s'intéresse à la prise en compte des préférences des décideurs dans le cadre de la résolution des problèmes de planification. L'originalité de l'approche retenue consiste à représenter les préférences en utilisant un formalisme issu de l'aide à la décision multicritère à savoir un modèle MAUT (acronyme de Théorie de l'Utilité Multi-Attribut) couplé à une intégrale de Choquet. Ce formalisme généralise la notion de préférence utilisée en PDDL (le Langage de Définition des Domaines de Planification). Ainsi, l'extension PDDL3/MAUT proposée enrichit le pouvoir expressif du PDDL en permettant d'utiliser facilement un nombre quelconque de préférences numériques, d'agréger des préférences entre elles ou encore de considérer d'éventuelles interactions entre les préférences du problème. En conséquence, elle permet de représenter plus finement la complexité intrinsèque des préférences des décideurs. Par ailleurs, un algorithme pour la résolution des problèmes de planification avec préférences est proposé. Ce dernier est mis en oeuvre dans le planificateur ChoPlan qui a été développé dans le cadre de cette étude et dont les performances ont été comparées à celles des planificateurs de l'art. En outre, les travaux réalisés contribuent à la résolution de la problématique de l'interopérabilité des organisations en situation de crise. En effet, un système d'aide à la décision capable de supporter les décideurs lors de l'élaboration de plans d'action collaboratifs est présenté. Ce dernier permet de modéliser la situation à résoudre, les capacités des partenaires mobilisés ainsi que les objectifs, contraintes et préférences des décideurs. Les modèles ainsi réalisés sont ensuite transformés afin de générer un problème de planification avec préférences qui est résolu à l'aide de ChoPlan. / This study aims to solve preference-based planning problems. The originality of this work is to represent preferences using a formalism from multicriteria decision analysis namely a MAUT model (acronym for Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) along with a Choquet integral. This formalism generalizes the notion of preference used in PDDL (the Planning Domain Definition Language). Indeed, the proposed PDDL3/MAUT extension improves the PDDL expressiveness by allowing to use any number of numeric preferences, aggregating preferences and considering interactions between preferences. As a consequence, it can represent more accurately the intrinsic complexity of decision-makers preferences. Furthermore, an algorithm for preference-based planning has been designed. It has been used to implement a planner named ChoPlan whose performances have been compared to state of the art planners. In addition, this work adresses the problem of organization’s interoperability in crisis management. Indeed, a decision aid system supporting decision-makers during the design of collaborative plans is presented. It helps stakeholders to model the situation to solve, the responders’ capabilities as well as objectives, constraints and preferences of the decision-makers. These models are then processed to generate a preference-based planning problem that is solved using the ChoPlan planner.
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Distribuição espacial da resistência do solo vista sob o prisma da fragilidade ambiental para a Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) de BotucatuYoshida, Fernando de Alvarenga 28 April 2015 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2015-04-28 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / This study, conducted in the limits of EPA of Botucatu, sought by the spatial distribution of soil strength, prepare an environmental fragility index of soil resistance and using methodologies such as the analysis of environmental fragility, geostatistics and multi-criteria decision analysis generate a environmental fragility map of the study object. The sample area was divided into 78 quadrants where data were collected on the soil resistance with an impact penetrometer, slope, soil types and land use and vegetation cover. It has been prepared an environmental fragility index for soil strength and weaknesses and maps were generated for each parameter and raised by map algebra in a multi-criteria decision analysis, the preparation of the environmental fragility map. The results can be noted that the slope, the lowest average of soil resistance were found in the higher slope (2,38 MPa - 20-40% and 2,92 MPa - greater than 40%) and this group showed significant differences compared to other classes of minor steepness (6.44 MPa to 6%, 7.11 MPa 6 to 12 MPa and 4.85% from 12 to 20%) at a depth of 0 to 20cm. There were significant differences between the different types of land use and vegetation cover. Sugarcane (9,35 MPa) and grazing (9,05 MPa) had the highest average resistance, differing from citrus (6.23 MPa) that differed from perennial crops such as eucalyptus forests (5,28 MPa), the coffee (3,58 MPa) and native forests (2,33 MPa) that formed the last group of least resistance in the layer 0-20 cm soil. In the spatial distribution of soil resistance, ordinary kriging in the exponential semivariogram model proved the most efficient method, given the parameters of the cross validation compared with gausian and spherical models. The multi-criteria decision analysis, through map algebra, generated the final product of this study, the map of environmental fragility to the EPA of Botucatu which showed that 32.43% of the total sample area are within lower fragility environmental classes and 67.57% of the total sample area are averaged fragility classes to very high fragility. / Esse estudo, realizado no limites da APA de Botucatu, buscou, através da distribuição espacial da resistência do solo, elaborar um índice de fragilidade ambiental da resistência do solo e, utilizando metodologias como a análise da fragilidade ambiental, a geoestatistica e a análise de decisão multicritérios gerar uma carta ou mapa de fragilidade ambiental para o objeto de estudo. Dividiu-se a área amostral em 78 quadrantes onde foram coletados dados sobre a resistência do solo com um penetrômetro de impacto, dados sobre a declividade, os tipos de solos e uso do solo e cobertura vegetal. Foi elaborado um índice de fragilidade ambiental para a resistência do solo e foram geradas cartas de fragilidades para cada parâmetro levantado e através da álgebra de mapas em uma análise de decisão de multicritérios, a elaboração da carta de fragilidade ambiental. Como resultados pode-se destacar que na declividade, as menores médias da resistência do solo foram encontradas nas declividades mais altas (2,38 MPa - de 20 a 40% e 2,92 MPa - maior que 40%) e esse grupo apresentou diferenças significativas se comparadas com as outras classes de menores declividades (6,44 MPa até 6%, 7,11 MPa de 6 a 12% e 4,85 MPa de 12 a 20%), na profundidade de 0 a 20cm. Foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre os diferentes tipos de uso do solo e cobertura vegetal. A cana de açúcar (9,35 MPa) e as pastagens (9,05 MPa) apresentaram as maiores resistências médias, diferindo do citros (6,23 MPa) que diferiu das culturas perenes, como as florestas de eucalipto (5,28 MPa), o café (3,58 MPa) e as florestas nativas (2,33 MPa) que formaram o último grupo, de menor resistência na camada 0 a 20 cm do solo. Na distribuição espacial da resistência do solo, a krigagem ordinária no modelo de semivariograma exponencial foi o método mais eficiente, atendendo aos parâmetros da validação cruzada comparado com os modelos gausiano e esférico. A análise de decisão de multicritérios, através da álgebra de mapas, gerou o produto final desse estudo, a carta de fragilidade ambiental para a APA de Botucatu que mostrou que 32,43% do total da área amostral se encontram dentro de classes baixas de fragilidade ambiental e 67,57% do total da área amostral se encontram em classes de fragilidade de média a muito alta.
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Multicriteria analysis and GIS application in the selection of sustainable motorway corridorBelka, Kamila January 2005 (has links)
Effects of functioning transportation infrastructure are receiving more and more environmental and social concern nowadays. Nevertheless, preliminary corridor plans are usually developed on the basis of technical and economic criteria exclusively. By the time of environmental impact assessment (EIA), which succeeds, relocation is practically impossible and only preventative measures can be applied. This paper proposes a GIS-based method of delimiting motorway corridor and integrating social, environmental and economic factors into the early stages of planning. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are used to assess all possible alternatives. GIS-held weighted shortest path algorithm enables to locate the corridor. The evaluation criteria are exemplary. They include nature conservation, buildings, forests and agricultural resources, and soils. Resulting evaluation surface is divided into a grid of cells, which are assigned suitability scores derived from all evaluation criteria. Subsequently, a set of adjacent cells connecting two pre-specified points is traced by the least-cost path algorithm. The best alternative has a lowest total value of suitability scores. As a result, the proposed motorway corridor is routed from origin to destination. It is afterwards compared with an alternative derived by traditional planning procedures. Concluding remarks are that the location criteria need to be adjusted to meet construction requirements as well as analysis process to be automated. Nevertheless, the geographic information system and the embedded shortest path algorithm proved to be well suited for preliminary corridor location analysis. Future research directions are sketched.
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Localização de depósitos de suprimentos de alívio para resposta a desastres através de programação linear estocástica e análise de decisão com múltiplos critérios. / Pre-positioning relief supplies for disaster response through stochastic optimization and multi-criteria decision analysis.Irineu de Brito Junior 27 March 2015 (has links)
Com o aumento do número de desastres e consequente incremento no número de pessoas vitimadas, a preparação para esses eventos é uma necessidade das sociedades modernas. Neste sentido, o planejamento das operações logísticas para atendimento as situações de emergências é uma atividade recente e pouco explorada na produção acadêmica. O objetivo deste trabalho é estabelecer uma metodologia para definir locais para o pré-posicionamento de materiais utilizados no socorro a populações afetadas por desastres através de um modelo de otimização estocástica de dois estágios e análise de decisão multicritério e que considerem parâmetros quantitativos e qualitativos. Com base nos custos de transporte e do não atendimento a demanda, e utilizando informações como mapeamentos de riscos; custos de transporte; histórico de ocorrências de desastres; cobertura geográfica; compras de materiais; capacidades de depósitos e de transporte, um modelo estocástico de programação linear minimiza os custos operacionais para abastecimento às vítimas. Uma análise detalhada sobre como atribuir penalidades para demanda não atendida também é apresentada. Devido à incerteza quanto a severidade de um desastre e a influência da mídia nas fases pós-desastres estes parâmetros são representados na forma de cenários. O resultado do modelo estocástico mostra a quantidade de locais e quais localidades minimizam o custo operacional. Após a obtenção desse resultado, uma nova etapa é utilizada para decisão de escolha do local, com a aplicação de modelo de decisão multicritério que considere, além dos valores obtidos pela modelagem, critérios subjetivos característicos a operações humanitárias. Os resultados finais mostram que modelos estocásticos promovem resultados mais confiáveis que os determinísticos, especialmente, em situações nas quais materiais disponíveis não podem atender toda a demanda e que a consideração de critérios qualitativos e quantitativos proporciona uma decisão mais robusta em operações humanitárias. / The increase in disasters and the consequent increase in the number of victims make it highly necessary to prepare for these events in modern societies. Logistics operations planning to meet emergencies is a recent activity and little explored in academic production. Our aim is to establish a method to locate pre-positioned materials used in disaster relief through a two-stage stochastic optimization model and a multi-criteria decision analysis that consider quantitative and qualitative parameters. Based on transportation and unattended demand costs, and using information such as risk mapping, transportation costs, historical occurrences of disasters, coverage, materials purchase, warehouses and transport capacities, a stochastic linear programming model minimizes the operating costs to supply the victims. A detailed analysis on how to assign penalties for unmet demand is also presented. Due to the uncertainty of the disasters severity and the influence of the media in phases after disasters, these parameters are represented as scenarios. The result of the stochastic model shows the quantity and the locations that minimize the operational cost. After this result, a new phase is applied for site selection, with the application of multi-criteria decision analysis that consider the values provided by the model and subjective criteria characteristic of humanitarian operations. The final results show that stochastic models promote more reliable results than deterministic ones, especially in situations in which the materials available cannot meet all the demand and that the consideration of qualitative and quantitative criteria provides better decisions in humanitarian operations.
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Localização de usinas termoelétricas utilizando Sistema de Informação Geográfica e métodos de decisão multicritério / Location of thermoelectric plants using Geographic Information System and multicriteria decision analysisKátia Lívia Zambon 07 May 2004 (has links)
No setor de energia elétrica, a área que se dedica ao estudo da inserção de novos parques geradores de energia no sistema é denominada planejamento da expansão da geração. Nesta área, as decisões de localização e instalação de novas usinas devem ser amplamente analisadas, a fim de se obter os diversos cenários proporcionados pelas alternativas geradas. Por uma série de fatores, o sistema de geração elétrico brasileiro, com predominância hidroelétrica, tende a ser gradualmente alterada pela inserção de usinas termoelétricas (UTEs). O problema de localização de UTEs envolve um grande número de variáveis através do qual deve ser possível analisar a importância e contribuição de cada uma. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é o desenvolvimento de um modelo de localização de usinas termoelétricas, aqui denominado SIGTE (Sistema de Informação Geográfica para Geração Termoelétrica), o qual integra as funcionalidades das ferramentas SIGs (Sistemas de Informação Geográfica) e dos métodos de decisão multicritério. A partir de uma visão global da área estudada, as componentes espaciais do problema (localização dos municípios, tipos de transporte, linhas de transmissão de diferentes tensões, áreas de preservação ambiental, etc.) podem ter uma representação mais próxima da realidade e critérios ambientais podem ser incluídos na análise. Além disso, o SIGTE permite a inserção de novas variáveis de decisão sem prejuízo da abordagem. O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado para a realidade do Estado de São Paulo, mas deixando claro a viabilidade de uso do modelo para outro sistema ou região, com a devida atualização dos bancos de dados correspondentes. Este modelo é designado para auxiliar empreendedores que venham a ter interesse em construir uma usina ou órgãos governamentais que possuem a função de avaliar e deferir ou não a licença de instalação e operação de usinas. / In the electric power industry, there is an area devoted to study alternatives for the expansion of the energy generation system. The decisions regarding the location and installation of new plants ought to be thoroughly analyzed in that planning activity, in order to foresee the likely scenarios resulting from the combination of distinct alternatives. For a number of reasons, the predominantly hydroelectric generation system historically set in Brazil tends to be gradually altered by the introduction of thermoelectric power plants (TPPs). The site selection problem involves, in the case of TPPs, a large number of variables, which contribute to the analysis process in various ways and with different levels of importance. The general goal of this work is the development of a location model of thermoelectric plants, here named SIGTE (an acronym for Geographic Information System for Thermoelectric Generation), which integrates the functionalities of the GIS tools (Geographic Information Systems) and multicriteria decision methods. Starting from an overall view of the studied area, this combination of techniques ensures a more realistic representation of the spatial components of the problem (e.g., the location of the municipalities, the transportation alternatives, the different voltages of transmission lines, areas of environmental preservation, etc.) It thus allows a straightforward inclusion of environmental criteria in the analysis. In addition, the SIGTE framework is also flexible enough to incorporate new decisions variables. The model was applied in a case study carried out in the state of Sao Paulo, although it can be easily adapted for use in other systems or geographical areas given that the corresponding databases are available. SIGTE was envisaged to be a supporting tool to public and private stakeholders interested in building new power plants or to governmental agencies in charge of the regulation mechanisms required for the installation nd operation of plants.
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Abordagem de Decisão em Grupo Baseada em Avaliações Linguísticas com uma Aplicação em Orçamento ParticipativoSILVA, Vanessa Batista de Sousa 05 February 2013 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2013-02-05 / Na maioria dos procedimentos de votação, a avaliação de um candidato é obtida a partir
de uma contagem de votos, sem levar em consideração qualquer informação sobre intensidade
de preferência. O uso de expressões linguísticas em votações torna o processo de avaliação
mais amigável e permite a consideração de informações sobre intensidade de preferência nas
estruturas de preferência dos decisores, além de melhorar a captura de informações subjetivas
e de incertezas intrínsecas aos julgamentos humanos. A qualidade da decisão irá depender da
qualidade da informação capturada através dos termos e expressões linguísticas utilizadas nas
avaliações, cujos valores semânticos devem ser representativos da interpretação dada à
linguagem pelos decisores dentro do contexto onde ela está sendo aplicada. A abordagem de
decisão em grupo proposta contempla um método para construção de uma escala linguística,
onde os indivíduos e o contexto da decisão são inseridos no processo de modelagem para
determinação dos significados matemáticos dos termos da escala. A abordagem contempla
também um procedimento de votação baseado no uso da escala linguística construída para um
grupo e um contexto específicos. A abordagem é bastante apropriada para apoiar decisões
com grupos de decisores heterogêneos, tais como decisões envolvendo a participação da
sociedade de uma forma geral. Para verificar o funcionamento, a abordagem foi utilizada para
simular uma das etapas de votação do Orçamento Participativo do Município de Recife,
Pernambuco, onde a população decide sobre as prioridades de ações públicas a serem
implementadas pelo governo local dentro do orçamento planejado para o ano seguinte. A
abordagem proporcionou uma forma simples, completa e transparente de avaliação das
prioridades das ações. / In most voting procedures, the evaluation of a candidate is obtained by counting the
votes, without considering any information on the intensity of preference. The use of
linguistic expressions in voting makes the evaluation process more friendly and allows for
consideration of intensity of preference in the preference structure of decision makers, and
also captures better the subjective information and intrinsic uncertainties, which are inherent
to human judgments. The quality of the decision will depend on the quality of the information
obtained from the linguistic terms and expressions used in the evaluations, whose semantic
values should be representative of the interpretation by decision makers within the context in
which it is being applied. The proposed group decision approach includes a method for
construction of a linguistic scale, in which the individuals and the decision context are
inserted into the modeling process for determining the mathematical meaning of the scale
terms. The approach also includes a voting procedure based on the linguistic scale constructed
for a specific group and context. The approach is appropriate for supporting decisions with
heterogeneous groups, such as decisions involving society in general. To verify the
effectiveness of the method, the approach was applied to one of the voting steps of the
Participatory Budgeting process of the city of Recife in Brazil, in which the population
decides the priorities of public actions to be implemented by the local government based on
the available budgeting for the next year. This approach provided a simple, complete and
transparent assessment of priority actions.
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Métodos de simulação-otimização e análise de decisão multi-critério aplicados ao dimensionamento de sistemas logísticos complexos. / Simulation-optimization and multi-criteria decision analysis applied to complex logistics systems.Edson Felipe Capovilla Trevisan 16 September 2013 (has links)
O estudo de sistemas logísticos envolve a concatenação de elementos estratégicos e operacionais, comumente compondo sistemas com múltiplas facetas, objetivos antagônicos e grande número de alternativas. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho discute a utilização de análise de decisão multicritério (MCDA), simulação de eventos discretos (SED) e otimização para simulação. A metodologia MCDA captura, mensura e pondera os objetivos e valores dos tomadores de decisão. Por sua vez, a SED representa o sistema estudado com alto nível de detalhamento, permitindo a avaliação de diversas configurações do sistema. Por fim, métodos de otimização para simulação possibilitam a busca e comparação de alternativas mais eficientes. As três metodologias são avaliadas, identificando suas vantagens, desvantagens e complementaridades quando aplicadas a sistemas logísticos. Através da aplicação de um estudo de caso sobre o dimensionamento de um sistema de transporte, constatou-se que: a) a SED incorporou detalhes importantes para a avaliação mais precisa de vários indicadores de desempenho b) a metodologia MCDA possibilitou a captura de vários objetivos e valores, propiciando a realização de tradeoffs robustos; c) um método de busca exaustiva e técnicas de redução de variância permitiram a comparação das alternativas em tempos computacionais reduzidos. Por fim, conclui-se que a metodologia híbrida apresentada expande o potencial de aplicação da SED em sistemas logísticos complexos. / A logistic system study involves strategic and operational elements, commonly composing multi-faceted systems with antagonistic goals and large number of alternatives. In this context, this thesis discusses the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), discrete event simulation (DES) and optimization for simulation. The MCDA methodology captures, measures and weighs the goals and values of decision makers. DES is useful for representing systems with high level of detail, allowing the evaluation of several system configurations. Finally, optimization for simulation procedures are useful for searching and comparing more efficient alternatives. These three methodologies are assessed and their advantages, disadvantages, and complementarities are identified for logistics systems applications. Through a case study of a transportation system, we conclude that: a) the SED incorporated important details for more precise evaluation of various performance indicators b) the MCDA methodology was useful to capture several goals and values, so that robust tradeoffs could be carried out c) an exhaustive search routine and variance reduction techniques allowed the comparison of several alternatives in feasible computational times. Finally, we conclude that the presented hybrid methodology expands the application of DES to complex logistics systems.
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Proposta de modelo para priorização de investimentos em infraestrutura de transporte de cargas: abordagem multicritério para problemas de fluxos em rede. / A proposed model for prioritizing investments in freight transport infrastructure: multi-criteria approach for network flow problems.Samir Kazan 23 September 2013 (has links)
A relevância da infraestrutura de transporte para incrementos em produtividade, induzindo ao desenvolvimento socioeconômico de determinada região é amplamente reconhecida. O Brasil, no entanto, apresenta sérias deficiências em relação à sua infraestrutura de transporte, oriundas de seu desenvolvimento histórico e da redução de níveis de investimentos públicos no setor nas últimas décadas. Estas deficiências traduzem-se em grande concentração no modal rodoviário para o transporte de cargas, menos eficiente do que os modais ferroviário e hidroviário, resultando em reduzida competitividade das organizações nacionais. Neste contexto, objetivou-se no presente trabalho a proposição de um modelo para avaliação e seleção de investimentos em infraestrutura de transporte de cargas, considerando-se seu caráter multidimensional. Para isso, foi proposta metodologia integrando os conceitos de análise de decisão multicritério e de programação matemática, representados pela teoria de utilidade multiatributo (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory - MAUT) e por problema de otimização de fluxos em rede (Minimum Cost Network Flow Problem - MCNFP), respectivamente. No desenvolvimento do modelo foram contemplados critérios de avaliação referentes às dimensões de análise financeira, operacional e ambiental. Posteriormente, foi considerada a aplicação de versões do modelo proposto com diferentes números de períodos de análise em caso ilustrativo, representativo da rede de transporte disponível e planejada da região Norte do Brasil. A aplicação das diversas versões do modelo proposto, de forma geral, apresentou resultados compatíveis com as teorias relacionadas à avaliação deste problema de decisão, incluindo indução à multimodalidade. Algumas versões do modelo apresentaram violações em algumas de suas restrições. Estes resultados adversos não foram plenamente eliminados, devido a limitações das ferramentas adotadas para aplicação. No entanto, foi possível a correção manual destas violações, resultando em soluções viáveis que, apesar de não serem consideradas ótimas, são mais completas do que soluções obtidas por meio de metodologias unidimensionais de análise. Por fim, foram apresentadas recomendações para condução de trabalhos futuros visando eliminação dos resultados adversos do modelo proposto e complementação de sua análise. / The role of transport infrastructure in productivity increases leading to regional social-economic development is widely recognized. Brazil, however, has serious deficiencies in its transport infrastructure, rooted in the country\'s historical development and in the recent decades\' reduction of public investment in the sector. These deficiencies can be observed in Brazil\'s strong focus on roads for cargo transportation, which besides being less efficient than rail and waterways, results in reduced competitiveness of national enterprises. In this context, the aim of this work was to propose a model for evaluating and selecting investments in freight\'s transportation infrastructure, considering its multidimensional character. It was proposed a methodology integrating the concepts of multi-criteria decision analysis and mathematical programming, represented by the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) along with the Minimum Cost Network Flow Problem (MCNFP). The developed model included financial, operational and environmental analysis evaluation criteria. Subsequently, this study applied the proposed model into a case study of the transportation network, available and planned, of the Northern region of Brazil. Overall, the application of various versions of the proposed model yielded results consistent with related evaluation and decision making theories, including induction of multimodality. Some versions of the model presented some violations of its restrictions. These adverse results were not fully eliminated due to the limitations of the application tools utilized. It was possible, however, to manually correct these violations and obtain viable solutions that, while cannot be considered optimal, are more complete than those obtained by single dimension analysis. Finally, recommendations were made for future studies aiming at eliminating the proposed model\'s adverse outcomes, and complementing its analysis.
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MCDM problem-structuring framework and a real estate decision support modelTiesmeier, Dominique Katlin January 2016 (has links)
The real estate selection process might be regarded as a typical Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. With current literature concentrating predominantly on institutional investment decision making, additional effort should be directed towards studying inexperienced homebuyers who want to buy a property in which to live. In this context, authors have described the decision environment as a complex decision process with restricted access to property data, high financial burdens partially due to the illiquid nature of the investment, the unfamiliarity with the decision task and low transparency in information aggregation. Consequently, this situation could benefit from a more structured approach that assists homebuyers in their actions. In order to guide the decision making process and provide a suitable support mechanism, it is necessary to first structure the problem and extract the required information. A thorough literature review shows that little guidance is available for MCDM problem structuring. Consequently, this research first proposes an MCDM problem-structuring framework to decompose complex problems into smaller parts. Foremost, the application is intended for high-involvement consumer products and services. This framework is derived from MCDM and methodology literature, where the former provides the elements that need to be defined in any MCDM problem situation, and the latter suggests suitable data collection and analysis methods to obtain the information. As a result, the first contribution to existing literature is the introduction of an MCDM problem-structuring framework, which consists of a carefully designed sequential exploratory mixed method procedure. Next, following the proposed structure, the real estate selection problem in Majorca (Spain) is defined. Whilst providing the inherent problem elements and establishing a comprehensive list of evaluation criteria to assess luxury properties, the fieldwork also offers behavioural insights, contributing and supplementing existing real estate research. In particular, major misunderstandings and false assumptions during real estate agent and client interactions are observed, stressing the need to optimise communication and targeting strategies. On the basis of the relevant real estate evaluation criteria, a dataset of alternative houses is created and subsequently rated by prospective luxury-homebuyers. This provides the basis for the third research focus, the construction of a decision support model for real estate selection. In accordance to the problem features and model requirements, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) rule is identified to offer a powerful and transparent evidence aggregation process, with the potential to have a superior performance than other methods in addressing the selection decision. Due to the ER rule’s short history (2013), application studies in general are practically non-existing and unprecedented in the real estate domain. Therefore, the use of a modified ER model can provide the real estate literature with a prescriptive multi-criteria decision support mechanism, whilst simultaneously offering an application study for the MCDM community and other relevant decision analysis domains. In closing, modelling a real problem using the ER rule highlights the method’s advantages and might in turn increase awareness, leading to more applications.
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Hybrid Gates approach for R and D product portfolio managementKoh, Alex January 2012 (has links)
Companies today are aggressively finding ways to improve top-line growth by introducing innovative products faster to the market. To achieve both innovation and accelerated rollout, many are turning to techniques such as Stage Gate approaches to improve engineering and marketing collaborations to clarify short term resource allocations (day to day plan with employee assignment). While Stage Gate approaches have been shown to result in better project coordination and faster time to market by doing projects right, research also indicates the need to ensure alignment to company strategy by doing the right projects within the allocated annual budget through medium term (rough cut capacity plan with employee requirements) and long term resource allocations (business / strategic plan with funding requirements). Today, such medium to long term resource allocation methodologies tend to be broadly consolidated under Research and Development (R&D) product portfolio management. We argue that there is value in a philosophical change in viewing R&D product portfolio management from the context of (1.) long and medium term resource allocation phases separately, (2.) focusing on the overlapping regions between long and medium term and between medium and short term resource allocation phases and (3.) the evolving resource allocation perspective (monetary to headcount to skillset) through these phases. Cooper et al note that for R&D product portfolio management and the Stage Gate process to work together, one can expect one of two scenarios - a gates dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at short term focused Stage Gates) or a portfolio reviews dominated approach (where the prioritization and resource decisions are made at the long term focused portfolio reviews). We propose that with appropriate focus given to the medium term phase, a third approach that we call a Hybrid Gates approach can exist in a "gates dominated" environment. A case study on Freescale Semiconductor was used as an empirical inquiry to gain deeper understanding on the perceived value of this approach within a real-life context. Triangulating between structured surveys, unstructured surveys, and focused interviews; we were able to show perceived value to the organization in the following areas: (1.) Enhancing the understanding of decision maker's decision and solution spaces, (2.) Clarifying strategic expressions and "stress testing" new strategies, (3.) Improving horizontal and vertical communication within the organization and (4.) Aiding in objectivity in R&D investment allocation. Furthermore, we were able to conceptually show how this approach retains the advantages of the gates dominated and portfolio dominated approaches while minimizing their respective weaknesses. This research is novel and unique as we have not found any research literature that focuses on a Hybrid Gates approach perspective or studies where the implementation of MO-ZOLP is: (1.) this large in scale and (2.) designed specifically to support a Stage Gate dominated environment. We believe that this research contributes to the practising educator and researcher by providing them with an alternative approach on R&D project portfolio management in complex organizations that are using a Stage Gate process. We also believe that this research is valuable to the practitioner by providing them with a practical process and methodology in which change management for such activities can be achieved. In addition, we assessed the on-going value added to the organization, thus linking theory to practice and finally, to outcome.
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