This thesis holistically examines the potential for tidal stream turbine (TST) integration to displace diesel generated electricity in remote coastal First Nations communities within the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast region of British Columbia. This thesis utilizes a combination of spatial analysis (GIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) to identify sites; stakeholder engagement to assess TST suitability, bridge knowledge gaps, and understand desired characteristics of community energy systems; and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) analyses for existing diesel and externality included scenarios along with potential TST costs in a candidate community. Results illustrate the need for information within these communities, from resource quantification to characteristics of renewable energy technologies and system feasibility; self-sufficiency as being the primary transition driver; and funding/human resource capacity as being substantial barriers. Within the study region ≈89.8 km2 of feasible resource was identified, with ≈22 km2 of potentially suitable tidal resource in proximity to nine communities. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in difficulties contacting and arranging interviews with the most suitable communities. Driven by the holistic research mandate requiring community stakeholder engagement to occur in tandem with the economic analyses, Queen Charlotte Village and Skidegate Landing on Haida Gwaii were chosen as the candidate communities, despite not being the most suitable identified communities. The community interviews revealed TSTs as being an acceptable renewable energy technology. Furthermore, the identified site in Skidegate Inlet (SI) was found to have favourable Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) for TST development. Existing diesel generation carries a LCOE of $0.63/kWh, being $0.08-0.14 more per kWh than the literature cited LCOE range for TSTs. The LCOE for CO2 equivalent externalities at current carbon tax prices was found to be an additional $0.02/kWh. Despite having a technically viable peak spring current speed, the SI site was financially unviable for 284 kW of rated capacity across all diesel LCOE scenarios driven by capacity factor (1.62%), high cabling costs (approximately one third of capital costs), and outdated data/assumptions within the Natural Resources Canada Tidal Project Cost Estimation tool used in the tidal LCOE calculations. This work contributes to the progression of tidal energy development on BCs coast along with demonstrating the utility of holistic assessment frameworks for RETs across environmental, social, and economic considerations. The results of this thesis can inform existing MSP efforts in the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific region and the framework developed can be built upon and altered for global use in pursuit of sustainable energy transitions. / Graduate

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational framework. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. The complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. This thesis aims to overcome some of these challenges, and to demonstrate how new modeling approaches can provide successful integrative water resources research. It focuses on the development of new integrated modeling approaches which allow integration of not only physical processes but also socio-economic and environmental issues and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems. To achieve this goal, two new approaches are developed in this thesis. At first, a Bayesian network (BN)-based decision support tool is developed to conceptualize hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems. The method demonstrates the value of combining different commonly used integrated modeling approaches. Coupled component models are applied to simulate the nonlinearity and feedbacks of strongly interacting groundwater-agricultural hydrosystems. Afterwards, a BN is used to integrate the coupled component model results with empirical knowledge and stakeholder inputs. In the second part of this thesis, a fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool is developed to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrates physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approaches are applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structures. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The first method can aid in the impact assessment of alternative management interventions on sustainability of aquifer systems while accounting for economic (agriculture) and societal interests (employment in agricultural sector) in the study area. Results from the second method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. The new approaches can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resource systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

This thesis analyses how public decision-makers can rapidly and sustainably decarbonise their regions, considering the challenge that promoting timely decarbonisation represents. The research was divided into three phases and developed using desk studies and interviews with Project Drawdown (PD) experts, Swedish public officials and researchers. In phase one, PD solutions showed a shortcoming in sustainable operationalisation of global decarbonisation solutions. It was found that they alone could not account for sustainability, and that there is dependency on the context of application and on decision-making processes. In phase two, it was found that sustainability could be embedded in decision-making for decarbonisation through decision support. In the Blekinge example case, several challenges were found, for which sustainable decision support was needed. To respond to this challenge, a Decision Support tool (DST) was created, based on multi-criteria decision analysis. This three-step generic tool provides a relevance assessment to prove the suitability of decarbonisation solutions in the given context, a sustainability assessment to address sustainability challenges, and a prioritisation step for strategic decision-making. The tool was validated to be useful by Swedish policymakers and by international experts. This DST has the potential to support policy-making around the world to decarbonise regions rapidly and sustainably.

Cette thèse concerne l’étude des débats argumentatifs entre plusieurs agents artificiels. Notre travail est motivé par les difficultés qui surgissent quand un nombre important d’utilisateurs interagissent et débattent sur le Web, en échangeant des arguments sur différents sujets. Ces difficultés se situent au niveau de la représentation des connaissances des agents impliqués dans le débat, de la représentation du débat, de la façon de tirer les conclusions du débat, de l'évaluation de la qualité du débat, de la définition des protocoles spécifiques d'interaction, et de l'étude des stratégies des agents qui souhaitent atteindre un but précis via le débat. La contribution de cette thèse consiste donc en: a) la modélisation d'un débat argumentatif entre plusieurs agents, la modélisation des expertises de ces derniers, et l'agrégation des opinions des différents experts sur différentes parties d'un débat; b) l'apport d'une aide à l'agent responsable de la gestion d'un débat donné, la proposition d'une méthode permettant d'évaluer la qualité des débats argumentatifs en fonction de la confiance que l'on peut avoir en leurs conclusions, ainsi que la proposition de solutions permettant d'améliorer la qualité des débats dont les conclusions ne sont pas clairement établies; c) l'apport d'une aide permettant aux agents qui participent à un débat argumentatif de déterminer quels arguments placer dans le débat, l'étude des systèmes argumentatifs munis d'une structure dynamique, l'étude des moyens disponibles permettant à un agent d'influencer un système dynamique afin d'atteindre son but, l'étude des modifications minimales permettant à un agent d’atteindre un objectif donné, l'étude des stratégies argumentatives basées sur ce changement minimal; d) la définition, l'étude et l'évaluation des protocoles argumentatifs multi-agents, ainsi que la définition de protocoles de différents types (1) basés sur une évaluation numérique d'arguments et (2) basés sur des extensions d'arguments, l'utilisation des différentes techniques pour assurer la cohérence d'un débat tout en laissant une liberté d'expression aux agents, et enfin un grand nombre d'expérimentations (sur des débats) permettant de tester différentes stratégies et de les évaluer en fonction de différents critères. / In this thesis multi-agent argumentation debates are studied. Our work is motivated by the issues which are raised when a large number of users interact and debate on the Web, by exchanging arguments on various topics. These issues are raised on the levels of representing the debating users' knowledge, representing the debate, computing the debate's conclusions, evaluating the debate's quality, defining specific protocols for user interaction, and studying debate strategies which users employ in order to achieve particular goals. This thesis' contribution consists in: a) proposing a way to model a multi-agent argumentation debate where the participants have different types of expertise, and proposing a way to aggregate their opinions; b) offering support to the agent who is arbitrating a debate, proposing a way to evaluate the quality of a debate on the basis of how confident we can be on its conclusions, and proposing solutions for improving the quality of a debate which lacks definite conclusions; c) offering support to the debating agents in order to determine which arguments they should put forward, studying dynamic argumentation systems, studying the potential ways in which an agent can influence a dynamic argumentation system in order to achieve his goal, studying the minimal change allowing an agent to achieve his goal, studying several argumentation strategies based on minimal change; d) defining, studying and evaluating multi-agent argumentation protocols, defining protocols of different types (1) based on numerical argument evaluation and (2) based on argument extensions, using different techniques to ensure a debate's coherence while ensuring some liberty of expression to the agents, and finally performing an important number of experiments (on debates) in order to test various strategies and evaluate them with respect to specific criteria.

Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden är två sjöar som tillhör den innersta delen av en vik i Mälaren. Här har den höga fosforbelastningen länge varit ett problem då den leder till kraftig algblomning varje år. Hittills har åtgärder mot fosforbelastningen riktats mot utsläppskällor av fosfor från omgivande mark, men dessa åtgärder har inte varit tillräckliga. Det beror på att fosfor har lagrats på sjöarnas bottnar under många år vilket orsakar intern fosforbelastning.  Restaureringsbehovet i sjöarna bestämdes genom att hitta den totalfosforhalt som krävs för att uppnå god ekologisk vattenstatus. Det är önskvärt att sjöarna uppnår god status med avseende på klorofyll, siktdjup och växtplankton. Dessa parametrar uppvisar starka samband till halten totalfosfor och på så sätt kunde målbilden för halten totalfosfor bestämmas till 9,4 µg/l i Stora Ullfjärden och 8,7 µg/l i Lilla Ullfjärden, med siktdjupet som den begränsande parametern.  En multikriterieanalys togs fram där det undersöktes vilken metod som är den lämpligaste sjörestaureringsåtgärden mot internbelastningen. Kostnader, effektivitet och livslängd för sex välstuderade åtgärdsmetoder fastställdes genom en metaanalys. Resultatet visar att aluminiumbehandling verkar vara det lämpligaste valet av åtgärdsmetod. Åtgärden innebär att en aluminiumlösning tillsätts sjöarnas sediment vilket binder fosforn och gör så att den inte frigörs.  Det undersöktes även om kostnaden för aluminiumbehandlingen kan motiveras genom att belysa sjöarnas ekonomiska värden. Under arbetet togs det fram olika typer av underlag för att bedöma sjöarnas värde. Genom att lista de tjänster som sjöarna bidrar med och tilldela tjänsterna ett uppskattat ekonomiskt värde konstaterades att sjöarna framför allt har ett högt naturvärde och bidrar med många kulturella ekosystemtjänster såsom bad, fiske och rekreation. Utifrån en tidigare studie uppskattades allmänhetens betalningsvilja för att uppnå god vattenstatus i Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden till 23 miljoner kronor. Det betyder att allmänhetens betalningsvilja täcker kostnaderna för aluminiumbehandlingen i Stora och Lilla Ullfjärden, vilket uppskattades till 22 miljoner kronor.  Med hjälp av bayesiansk beslutsanalys har det även kunnat konstateras att sjöarna bör aluminiumbehandlas om det minskade värdet för att god status inte uppnås (såsom minskat estetiskt värde, minskad biologisk mångfald, försämrad förmåga att rena vatten, med mera) anses kosta mer än 25 miljoner kronor på en 12 årsperiod. Eftersom beslutsmaterialet har en del osäkerheter finns det ett fortsatt behov av ytterligare undersökningar. / Stora Ullfjärden and Lilla Ullfjärden are two lakes that belong to the innermost part of a bay in Lake Mälaren. Phosphorus load has been a problem for a long time as it causes large algal bloom every summer. Attempt to decrease the phosphorus load in the lakes have so far been focused on measures to control the phosphorous emissions from the surrounding land. However, these measurers have not been sufficient. This is because phosphorus has been accumulated in the bottom sediment of the lakes for many years which cause internal phosphorus loading.  The amount of phosphorous needed to be removed was determined by identifying the maximum total phosphorus content the lake can handle while still demonstrating good ecological status. It is desirable that the lakes achieve good status regarding chlorophyll, secchi depth and phytoplankton. These three parameters show strong correlations to the total phosphorus content and in this way the desired future total phosphorus content could be calculated to 9,4 µg/l in Stora Ullfjärden and 8,7 µg/l in Lilla Ullfjärden, with the secchi depth as the limiting parameter. A multi-criteria decision analysis was developed to determine the most suitable lake restoration measure to reduce internal phosphorous loads. Costs, efficacy, and longevity of six well-known mitigation measures were determined by a meta-analysis. The results verify that aluminum treatment appears to be the most suitable choice. The method involves adding aluminum solution to the lakes' sediment, which binds phosphorus, so it is not released.  Additionally, it was examined whether the cost of aluminum treatment can be justified by highlighting the economic values ​​of the lakes. Different types of decision material are presented in the report to assess a value to the lakes. By listing services of the lakes and assign them an estimated economic value, it was determined that the lakes have a high nature value and contribute with many cultural ecosystem services such as swimming, fishing, and recreation. Based on a previous study, the public's willingness to pay to achieve good water status in Stora Ullfjärden and Lilla Ullfjärden was estimated to SEK 23 million. Hence, the public's willingness to pay covers the costs of the aluminum treatment in Stora and Lilla Ullfjärden, which was estimated to SEK 22 million.  Lastly, a Bayesian model for decision making was used. It was discovered that the lakes are recommended to undergo an aluminum treatment if the reduced value for not achieving good status in the lakes (e.g., decreased aesthetic value, reduced biodiversity, and impaired ability to purify water) is considered to cost more than SEK 25 million over a 12-year period. As the decision material has some uncertainties, there is a continuing need for further investigations.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第23591号 / 地環博第218号 / 新制||地環||42(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 教授 諸富 徹, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

<p dir="ltr">Most road fatalities are caused by human error. To help mitigate this issue and enhance overall transportation safety, companies are turning to advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicle development. Perception, a key module of these systems, mostly uses light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors and enables efficient obstacle detection and environment mapping. Extensive research on the use of LiDAR for autonomous driving has been documented in the literature. Yet still, several researchers and practitioners have advocated continued investigation of LiDAR placement alternatives. To address this research need, this thesis research begins with a comprehensive review of different sensor technologies – camera, radio detection and ranging, global positioning system, and inertial measurement units – and exploring their inherent strengths and limitations. Next, the thesis research developed a methodological multiple criteria framework and implemented it in the context of LiDAR placement optimization. Given the numerous criteria and placement alternatives associated with LiDAR placement, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was identified as an effective tool for LiDAR placement optimization. MCDA has been applied to some extent in decision-making regarding autonomous vehicle development. However, its application in LiDAR placement optimization remains unexplored. In evaluating the LiDAR placement alternatives, the research first established the placement alternatives and then developed a comprehensive yet diverse set of criteria – point density, blind spot regions, sensor cost, power consumption, sensor redundancy, ease of installation, and aesthetics. The data collection methods included the CARLA simulator, sensor datasheets, and questionnaire surveys. The relative importance among the evaluation criteria was established using weighting techniques such as respondent-assigned weighting, equal weighting, and randomly generated weighting. Then, to standardize the different measurement units, scaling was carried out using value functions developed for each criterion using data from the respondents. Finally, the weighted and scaled criteria measures were amalgamated to obtain the overall evaluation score for each alternative LiDAR placement design. This enabled the ranking of the placement designs and the identification of the best-performing and worst-performing designs. Hence, the optimization method used is the enumeration technique. The findings of this study serve as a reference for future similar efforts that seek to optimize LiDAR placements based on select criteria. Further, it is expected that the thesis’s framework will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the overall impact of LiDAR placement on autonomous vehicles, thus enabling the cost-effective design of their placement and, ultimately, improving AV operational outcomes, including traffic safety.</p>

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Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.

<p>U radu su istražene mogućnosti za razvoj modela za izbor<br />lokacije proizvodnih sistema. Razvijen je model za izbor<br />lokacije proizvodnih sistema i verifikovan u studiji<br />slučaja na teritoriji AP Vojvodine i opštine Inđija.<br />Posebno značajan rezultat je fazi ekspertni sistem za<br />analizu kriterijuma odlučivanja, geografski informacioni<br />sistem za skrining i prostorni sistem za podršku u izboru<br />lokacije proizvodnih sistema.</p> / <p>This paper examines the possibilities of model development for<br />production systems site selection. Developed model for production<br />systems site selection is presented and tested in case study of AP<br />Vojvodina and Indjija municipality. A particularly important result is<br />developed fuzzy expert system for factor analysis, geographic<br />information system for screening and spatial decision support system.</p>