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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
71

Collective dynamics and control of a fleet of heterogeneous marine vehicles

Wang, Chuanfeng 13 January 2014 (has links)
Cooperative control enables combinations of sensor data from multiple autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) so that multiple AUVs can perform smarter behaviors than a single AUV. In addition, in some situations, a human-driven underwater vehicle (HUV) and a group of AUVs need to collaborate and preform formation behaviors. However, the collective dynamics of a fleet of heterogeneous underwater vehicles are more complex than the non-trivial single vehicle dynamics, resulting in challenges in analyzing the formation behaviors of a fleet of heterogeneous underwater vehicles. The research addressed in this dissertation investigates the collective dynamics and control of a fleet of heterogeneous underwater vehicles, including multi-AUV systems and systems comprised of an HUV and a group of AUVs (human-AUV systems). This investigation requires a mathematical motion model of an underwater vehicle. This dissertation presents a review of a six-degree-of-freedom (6DOF) motion model of a single AUV and proposes a method of identifying all parameters in the model based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. Using the method, we build a 6DOF model of the EcoMapper and validate the model by field experiments. Based upon a generic 6DOF AUV model, we study the collective dynamics of a multi-AUV system and develop a method of decomposing the collective dynamics. After the collective dynamics decomposition, we propose a method of achieving orientation control for each AUV and formation control for the multi-AUV system. We extend the results and propose a cooperative control for a human-AUV system so that an HUV and a group of AUVs will form a desired formation while moving along a desired trajectory as a team. For the post-mission stage, we present a method of analyzing AUV survey data and apply this method to AUV measurement data collected from our field experiments carried out in Grand Isle, Louisiana in 2011, where AUVs were used to survey a lagoon, acquire bathymetric data, and measure the concentration of reminiscent crude oil in the water of the lagoon after the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
72

Architecting aircraft power distribution systems via redundancy allocation

Campbell, Angela Mari 12 January 2015 (has links)
Recently, the environmental impact of aircraft and rising fuel prices have become an increasing concern in the aviation industry. To address these problems, organizations such as NASA have set demanding goals for reducing aircraft emissions, fuel burn, and noise. In an effort to reach the goals, a movement toward more-electric aircraft and electric propulsion has emerged. With this movement, the number of critical electrical loads on an aircraft is increasing causing power system reliability to be a point of concern. Currently, power system reliability is maintained through the use of back-up power supplies such as batteries and ram-air-turbines (RATs). However, the increasing power requirements for critical loads will quickly outgrow the capacity of the emergency devices. Therefore, reliability needs to be addressed when designing the primary power distribution system. Power system reliability is a function of component reliability and redundancy. Component reliability is often not determined until detailed component design has occurred; however, the amount of redundancy in the system is often set during the system architecting phase. In order to meet the capacity and reliability requirements of future power distribution systems, a method for redundancy allocation during the system architecting phase is needed. This thesis presents an aircraft power system design methodology that is based upon the engineering decision process. The methodology provides a redundancy allocation strategy and quantitative trade-off environment to compare architecture and technology combinations based upon system capacity, weight, and reliability criteria. The methodology is demonstrated by architecting the power distribution system of an aircraft using turboelectric propulsion. The first step in the process is determining the design criteria which includes a 40 MW capacity requirement, a 20 MW capacity requirement for the an engine-out scenario, and a maximum catastrophic failure rate of one failure per billion flight hours. The next step is determining gaps between the performance of current power distribution systems and the requirements of the turboelectric system. A baseline architecture is analyzed by sizing the system using the turboelectric system power requirements and by calculating reliability using a stochastic flow network. To overcome the deficiencies discovered, new technologies and architectures are considered. Global optimization methods are used to find technology and architecture combinations that meet the system objectives and requirements. Lastly, a dynamic modeling environment is constructed to study the performance and stability of the candidate architectures. The combination of the optimization process and dynamic modeling facilitates the selection of a power system architecture that meets the system requirements and objectives.
73

Dynamic analysis of constrained object motion for mechanical transfer of live products

Wang, Daxue 08 April 2009 (has links)
This thesis is motivated by practical problems encountered in handling live products in the poultry processing industry, where live birds are manually transferred by human labors. As the task of handling live products is often unpleasant and hazardous, it is an ideal candidate for automation. To reduce the number of configurations and live birds to be tested, this thesis focuses on developing analytical models based on the Lagrange method to predict the effect of mechanical inversion on the shackled bird. Unlike prior research which focused on the effect of different inversion paths on the joint force/torque of a free-falling shackled bird, this thesis research examines the effect of kinematic constraints (designed to support the bird body) on the shackled bird. Unlike free-falling, the imposed kinematic constraints enable the shackled bird to rotate about its center of mass, and thus minimize wing flapping. In this thesis, birds are geometrically approximated as ellipsoids while the lower extremity is modeled as a pair of multi-joint serial manipulators. With the constraint equations formulated into a set of differential algebraic equations, the equations of motion as well as Lagrange multipliers characterizing kinematical constraints are numerically solved for the bird motion, specifically the position, velocity, and orientation and hence the forces and torques of the joints. The dynamic models are verified by comparing simulation results against those obtained using a finite element method. The outcomes of this thesis will provide some intuitive insights essential to design optimization of a live-bird transfer system.
74

Modélisation dynamique et gestion avancée de réseaux de chaleur / Dynamic modeling and advanced control of district heating systems

Giraud, Loïc 27 October 2016 (has links)
Les Réseaux de Chaleur (RdC) connaissent un nouvel essor en France qui s’explique par leur capacité à valoriser, à un prix raisonnable, des énergies bas carbone dans les domaines du chauffage et de l’eau chaude sanitaire aujourd’hui fortement émetteurs de CO2. L’amélioration du contrôle de ces systèmes complexes est un enjeu clé pour accroître leur compétitivité et favoriser leur développement. Cette thèse s’intéresse à la gestion par commande optimale des RdC. Pour cette application, nous avons développé et évalué un algorithme qui, à partir d’une prévision de la demande, optimise l’utilisation des différents moyens de production ainsi que la température de départ et la pression différentielle. Par rapport aux systèmes existants, les originalités de notre solution sont de tirer pleinement partie des capacités de stockage thermique dans le réseau et de déterminer le meilleur compromis entre coûts liés au pompage et pertes thermiques. Cette thèse débute par un travail de modélisation dynamique réalisé à l’échelle composant. En nous appuyant sur une démarche de validation expérimentale, nous avons systématiquement recherché le meilleur compromis entre précision et efficacité numérique (Chapitre 1). Le cas d’étude, décrit dans le Chapitre 2, est un RdC virtuel à l’échelle d’un quartier, représentatif du cas Grenoble. Pour le développement du système de gestion avancée, nous présentons ensuite une version linéarisée du modèle de réseau de distribution que nous intégrons à un optimiseur en suivant le formalisme de la programmation linéaire mixte. L’algorithme de gestion proposé est ensuite décrit (Chapitre 3). Il associe un modèle dynamique non-linéaire et l’optimiseur précité. L’objet du quatrième chapitre est l’évaluation des performances de notre algorithme par la simulation et la comparaison à des méthodes de contrôle existantes. Enfin, un dernier chapitre étudie la robustesse de l’algorithme en condition de commande réelle, c’est-à-dire en tenant compte de différentes sources d’incertitude. / District Heating (DH) are currently fast-growing in France. This situation is explained by their ability to exploit and disseminate massively, at a reasonable price, energy sources with low CO2 contents in the sectors of space heating and domestic hot water production, nowadays strongly emitters of greenhouse gases. Improving the control of these complex energy systems is a key issue for increasing their competitiveness and promote their development.This thesis focuses on the optimal control of DH systems. For this application, we have developed and tested an algorithm that optimizes, given a load prediction, the use of the production means, the supply temperature and the differential pressure. Compared to existing methods, the original features of the developed solution are to fully exploit the thermal storage capacity of the network and to determine the best compromise between costs for pumping and heat losses.This thesis begins with a work on dynamic modeling carried out at the component scale. Based on an experimental validation approach, we systematically sought the best compromise between accuracy and computational efficiency (Chapter 1). The case study, described in Chapter 2, is a virtual DH at the district scale, representing the Grenoble case. For the development of the advanced control system, we then present a linearized version of the distribution network model that we integrate into an optimizer relying on Mixed Linear Programming. The proposed control algorithm is described in Chapter 3. It combines a nonlinear dynamic model and the aforementioned optimizer. The topic of the fourth chapter is the evaluation of the performance of our algorithm by simulation and comparison with existing methods of control. A final chapter examines the robustness of the algorithm in real control conditions considering various sources of uncertainty.
75

Modélisation dynamique d’un dispositif de stockage par chaleur sensible intégré à un système énergétique / Dynamic modeling of a sensible heat storage device integrated into an energy system

Terzibachian, Elie 10 July 2017 (has links)
Dans les années récentes, des politiques visant à promouvoir l’efficacité énergétique ont été instaurées en réponse aux obligations réglementaires européennes et internationales. Le stockage d’énergie thermique s’est révélé être une technologie qui permet une amélioration de l’efficacité énergétique, en particulier celle des installations techniques pour le conditionnement d’air, le chauffage et l’eau chaude sanitaire pour le bâtiment. Parmi les différents types existants, le stockage thermique par chaleur sensible est le plus ancien et le plus répandu sur le marché. Or, l’intégration du ballon de stockage dans les installations énergétiques s’avère délicate tant dans la phase de conception que de l’exploitation de ces installations. Par ailleurs, il convient d’évaluer – pour les systèmes et équipements techniques du bâtiment – leurs consommations énergétiques annuelles (ou saisonnières). Pour répondre à l’ensemble de ces exigences, le recours à la modélisation et simulation dynamique des composants et systèmes énergétiques devient indispensable. Le travail de la présente thèse présente une approche de modélisation et de simulation dynamique d’un ballon de stockage d’eau par chaleur sensible qui répond aux contraintes particulières suivantes : assurer une modélisation fine à partir de la résolution des équations de Navier-Stokes d’un composant – le ballon de stockage – dans lesquels les mécanismes de transfert et d’écoulement sont complexes et réaliser une modélisation dynamique d’un système thermique associant des divers composants techniques d’un circuit et ceci avec des temps de calcul raisonnables, compatibles avec les pratiques courantes des bureaux d’étude spécialisés en conception d’installations . Le travail réalisé associe donc une analyse fine du comportement dynamique du ballon grâce au développement d’un modèle CFD, la détermination d’un modèle réduit à partir de ce modèle – qui permet la construction d’un champ dynamique de température – et enfin une modélisation sous Modelica adaptée à la simulation d’un système énergétique complexe. Dans les différentes phases de cette étude, les résultats issus de la simulation sont alors confrontés aux résultats déduits de divers travaux expérimentaux. La validation de la démarche suite à cette confrontation calculs/expériences permet d’envisager l’application des outils présentés à des projets techniques notamment au projet « PV cooling » de climatisation des bâtiments avec une ressource solaire photovoltaïque, projet réalisé en parallèle de ce projet de thèse et porté par les acteurs industriels qui soutiennent cette recherche. / In recent years, policies to promote energy efficiency have been introduced in response to European and International regulatory obligations. Thermal Energy Storage has proven to be a technology that improves energy efficiency, particularly for the air conditioning, heating and domestic hot water utilities in buildings. Among the existing types, sensible heat storage is the oldest and most widespread on the market. The integration of the storage tank into energy installations may be tricky in both the design and operation phases of these installations. Moreover, the annual (or seasonal) energy consumption of the building's technical systems and equipment should be evaluated. To meet all these requirements, dynamic modeling and simulation of energy components and systems becomes essential. The work of this thesis presents a dynamic modeling and simulation approach of a sensible heat water storage tank which respond to the following particular constraints: To ensure a fine modeling based on the resolution of the Navier-Stokes equations of a component – the storage tank – in which the flow and transfer mechanisms are complex, and to carry out a dynamic modeling and simulation, with reasonable computational time, of a thermal energy system associating various technical components of a circuit and compatible with the usual practices of the specialized system design offices. Thus, the carried out work combines a detailed analysis of the dynamic behavior of the storage tank through the development of a CFD model, the development of a reduced model from the previous CFD model that allows the construction of temperature dynamic fields and finally a Modelica modeling adapted to the simulation of a complex energy system. In the different phases of this study, the results from the simulation are compared to the results deduced from various experimental works. The validation of the approach following this comparison between calculations and experimental results makes it possible to consider the application, of the presented tools, in technical projects and in particular the project “PV cooling” for buildings air conditioning with a photovoltaic solar resource, a project that is carried out in parallel with this thesis by the industrial players supporting this research.
76

Study on the integration of controllability and diagnosability of reactive distillation columns as from the conceptual design step. Application to the production of ethyl acetate. / Etude de l’intégration de la contrôlabilité et de la diagnosticabilité des colonnes de distillation réactive dès la phase de conception. Application à la production d’acétate d’éthyle.

Figueiredo-Fernandez, Mayra 15 July 2013 (has links)
La distillation réactive est un exemple emblématique de l’intensification de procédés. Cependant, le couplage réaction/séparation génère des complexités importantes en termes de dynamique, de contrôle et de supervision qui constituent une barrière pour leur mise en œuvre industrielle. Ces aspects doivent être considérés dès la phase de conception sous peine de concevoir une colonne difficilement contrôlable. Une méthodologie existante est étendue afin d’y intégrer les aspects de contrôlabilité et de diagnosticabilité. L’étape de conception étudie les courbes de résidu et extractives réactives, identifie les paramètres opérationnels et propose des configurations de colonne respectant les spécifications. La meilleure configuration est choisie sur des critères de contrôlabilité par l’analyse de différents indicateurs quantitatifs et qualitatifs identifiés à l’aide de simulations en régime permanent et dynamique. La méthodologie est appliquée à la production industrielle d’acétate d’éthyle. Deux campagnes expérimentales ont permis de fiabiliser le modèle de simulation de la colonne. La méthodologie permet d’identifier les sensibilités et montre que il est possible d’agir sur les trois degrés de liberté de la colonne double alimentation pour atteindre les spécifications industrielles ; les variables contrôlées sont sélectionnées dans des sections spécifiques, similaires pour différentes configurations de colonne. Concernant le diagnostic, l’utilisation de capteurs de composition semble la plus pertinente mais la complexité de leur utilisation industrielle (cout) peut être contournée par la sélection d’un nombre plus important de capteurs de température judicieusement positionnés. Les résultats de contrôlabilité et de diagnosticabilité sont en cohérence et bien intégrés dans la conception des colonnes réactives. / Reactive distillation involves complexities on process dynamics, control and supervision. This work proposes a methodology integrating controllability and diagnosability as from conceptual design. The choice of the most appropriate feasible configuration is conducted though an indices-based method, regarding steady-state and dynamic simulations, for the ethyl acetate production. Experimental campaigns were performed to acquire reliable models. The methodology highlights the process sensitivities and shows that three degrees of freedom of the double-feed column can be manipulated to ensure the industrial specifications; the controlled variables are selected at similar specific locations for all column configurations. Concerning diagnosis, the use of composition sensors seems to be the most appropriate solution, but the same performances can be reached with more temperature sensors judiciously placed.
77

Modelagem da dinâmica de paisagem: simulação de cenários na região do baixo curso do Rio dos Sinos – RS

Lima, Ednardo Correia January 2014 (has links)
A análise do acelerado crescimento urbano industrial dos municípios próximos às grandes metrópoles brasileiras, principalmente a partir dos anos 1960, requer novas metodologias de análise espaço-temporal que possam antecipar ações de planejamento territorial. Nesse contexto, foi utilizado um modelo de autômato celular para a modelagem da dinâmica da paisagem do baixo curso do rio dos Sinos - RS ao longo de 21 anos (1990 a 2011) e simuladas as tendências de mudanças dos elementos desta paisagem para 2016 e 2022. O trabalho foi elaborado com auxílio de softwares de sistemas de informações geográficas e de simulação espacial, como o Dinamica EGO, compreendendo três etapas: (a) preparação dos dados para o modelo da paisagem para os anos de 1990, 2000 e 2011, que compreende dois períodos de simulação, além da seleção de variáveis espaciais para explicar as transições de uso e cobertura do solo; (b) calibração e validação do modelo, ou seja, definição dos parâmetros para a simulação dos cenários para cada um dos períodos; (c) obtenção dos cenários de prognósticos. A quantificação das alterações na paisagem do baixo curso do rio dos Sinos no período de 1990 a 2011 revelou as seguintes tendências: aumento das áreas de cobertura vegetal, áreas urbanizadas e silvicultura; redução das áreas de campos ou áreas agrícolas e arrozais; as demais classes não apresentaram alterações significativas. Essas tendências foram simuladas no processo de modelagem dinâmica espacial para os períodos (1990 a 2000) e (2000 a 2011), geradas matrizes de transição, com pesos de evidência de transição por faixas de distância de variáveis espaciais e a calibração dos modeladores de formação, retração e expansão de manchas de uso e cobertura do solo. Foram geradas simulações da paisagem para os anos de 2000 e 2011 com similaridades consideradas satisfatórias. A partir dos dados probabilísticos estocados do período de simulação (2011) geramos cenários futuros a curto e médio prazo, devido a maior similaridade apresentada com a paisagem observada, com relação ao primeiro período de simulação (2000). Os cenários futuros simulados a curto e médio prazo indicam tendência de continuidade na dinâmica observada, porém em menor intensidade, conforme se verifica em outras áreas intensamente urbanizadas junto a grandes centros urbanos. / Analysis of accelerated industrial growth of urban municipalities near Brazil's big cities, mainly from the 1960s, requires new methodologies for spatio-temporal analysis to anticipate actions of territorial planning. In this context, a model of cellular automata for the modeling of landscape dynamics of the lower course of the Sinos - RS river over 21 years (1990-2011) and simulated the changing trends of the elements of this landscape in 2016 and 2022. The work was prepared with the aid of software for geographic information and spatial simulation Dinamica EGO systems, comprising three stages: (a) preparation of data for the model of the landscape for the years 1990, 2000 and 2011, comprising two periods the simulation and the selection of spatial variables to explain land use change and land cover; (b) calibration and validation of the model and, defining the parameters for the simulation of scenarios for each period; (c) obtaining the forecast scenarios. The quantification of changes in the landscape of the lower course of the Sinos river in the period 1990 to 2011 revealed the following trends: increasing canopy coverage areas, urbanized areas and forestry; reduction in agricultural fields or areas of fields and rice paddies; other classes showed no significant changes. These trends were simulated by the spatial dynamics modeling process for the periods (1990-2000) and (2000-2011), generated transition matrices, with weights of evidence of transition by distance bands of spatial variables and calibration of modelers training, contraction and expansion of use of stains and ground cover. Landscape simulations for the years 2000 and 2011 with deemed satisfactory similarities were generated. From the probabilistic data stored in the simulation period (2011) generate future scenarios in the short and medium term, due to greater similarity presented with the landscape observed with respect to the first simulation period (2000 ). The future scenarios simulated in the short and medium term trend indicates continuity in the observed dynamics, but at a lower intensity, as shown in other heavily urbanized areas near large urban centers such as Porto Alegre.
78

Contribution à la modélisation dynamique, l'identification et la synthèse de lois de commande adaptées aux axes flexibles d'un robot industriel. / Contribution to dynamic modeling, identification and synthesis of control laws for flexible industrial robot.

Oueslati, Marouene 18 December 2013 (has links)
Les robots industriels représentent un moyen de production sophistiqués pour l'industrie manufacturière d'aujourd'hui. Ces manipulateurs sont plus agiles, plus flexibles et moins coûteux que les machines-outils spécialisées. L'exploitation de ces avantages fait l'objet d'une demande croissante de l'industrie. La dynamique de ces manipulateurs est soumise à des nombreuses sources d'imprécision. En effet les défauts de la chaîne de transmission, ou encore les éléments de liaisons peuvent être le siège de déformations et de vibrations dégradant sensiblement leur précision. Ces phénomènes physiques sont d'autant plus difficiles à compenser que seul un sous ensemble des états du système est mesuré par les codeurs moteurs. La structure de commande industrielle actuelle d'un robot n'agit donc pas directement sur ces phénomènes. Il est nécessaire alors de progresser sur le front de l'amélioration de la précision par l'adaptation de la commande à ces nouvelles exigences. Un état de l'art met en évidence un manque de travaux qui traitent de l'élaboration d'anticipations adaptées aux axes d'un robot et intégrant les phénomènes de déformation. En outre, la planification de trajectoire n'est classiquement pas remise en cause et peu évoquée. Elle représente pourtant un moyen d'action éprouvé afin d'améliorer les performances dynamiques en suivi de profil. L'approche proposée dans ce mémoire se veut une alternative à ces méthodes. Elle est basée sur une exploitation d'un modèle dynamique représentatif et détaillé. Il intègre les principaux phénomènes physiques mis en évidence tels que les effets de la gravité, les systèmes mécaniques de compensation, les forces de frottement et la flexibilité articulaire. Cette modélisation associée à des méthodes d'identification expérimentale est exploitée afin de déduire une structure de commande. Elle permet la réduction des déformations élastiques et des vibrations par une action sur la précommande et sur la loi de mouvement adaptée. Ainsi, nous introduisons une méthode d'estimation non asymptotique appliquée en robotique, afin d'estimer rapidement les paramètres vibratoires de ce dernier et contribue à une réactualisation des modèles exploités. Des résultats expérimentaux montrent que cette méthodologie mène à une amélioration des performances de positionnement par rapport à la commande industrielle. / Anthropomorphic robots are widely used in many fields of industry to carry out repetitive tasks such as pick and place, welding, assembling, and so on. Due to their flexibility and ability to perform complex tasks in a large workspace, industrial robots are finding their way to realize continuous operations. Then, high level pose accuracy is required to achieve a good path tracking. Unfortunately these systems were designed to have a good repeatability but not a good accuracy. The dynamics of these manipulators is subject to many sources of inaccuracy. Indeed, friction, kinematic errors and joint flexibilities may be the seat of deformation and vibration which degrade the position performance. These physical phenomena are even more difficult to manage even only a subset of states of the system is measured by motor encoders. Hence, the structure of current industrial control does not act directly on these phenomena. Nevertheless, there is a growing interest from industry for an improved path tracking accuracy with standard robots controllers. A state of the art highlights a lack of works considering the development of expectations adapted to the axes of an industrial robot and incorporating deformation phenomena. The approach proposed in this PhD. Thesis is meant to be an alternative to such techniques by proposing a methodology based on exploitation of detailed physical modeling and associated to experimental identification methods. This model incorporates the main highlighted physical phenomena. It is then exploited to obtain adapted control structures and tuning methods allowing enhancing the system's performance. It is integrated in our trajectory planner in order to realize a compensation scheme of joint errors. Thus, we introduce a new non-asymptotic estimation method applied in robotics, to on-line estimate the vibration parameters and to update operated models. Experimental results show that the proposed methodology leads to an improved motion control of the point-tool.
79

MODELAGEM DINÂMICA DO USO E COBERTURA DA TERRA DA QUARTA COLÔNIA, RS / DYNAMIC MODELING OF LAND USE AND COVERAGE AT QUARTA COLÔNIA, RS

Ferrari, Renata 01 December 2008 (has links)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The matter about the changes in land use and coverage patterns, connected to present time concerns on development sustainability and the adequate balance between social, economic and environmental questions involved in it, stimulate the research in the field of scenery simulation at several different regions of the world. In this context, the present research intends to simulate the land use and coverage evolution tendency at Quarta Colônia, RS, for the year 2018, from physical variables, analyzing the change on the land use and coverage in the period of 1988 to 2002 and 2008, spacing and quantifying them. To do so, the land use and coverage patterns were classified using images from the satellites LANDSAT 5 and LANDSAT 7 relative to the years 1988, 2002 and 2008, being the last two maps used for modeling. After performing the crossing of land use and coverage patterns (forest, field, agricultural soil and water) between each other, in a LEGAL analysis, we created maps containing the specific evolutionary changes of each class, including the individual tendencies from the simulation made for the year 2018. It was observe that there wasn t any big change. The maps of land use and coverage from 2002 and 2008 processed in the Dinamica EGO modeling platform enabled the definition of the Markov model global transition probabilities and, local transition probabilities were defined using the empiric probabilistic method weight of evidence, based on Bayes conditional probability theorem. The change probabilities to land use and coverage obtained allowed the formation of a cell automata model based on stochastic transition algorithm where the physical variables demonstrated to be collaborator in this process of land use and coverage changes over time. The simulation results were validated specially due to a knowledge of the statistical procedure, the fuzzy method, demonstrating satisfactory results of the simulation. / As questões de mudanças nos padrões de uso e cobertura da terra, ligadas às preocupações atuais da sustentabilidade do desenvolvimento e ao balanço adequado entre as questões sociais, econômicas e ambientais envolvidas, motivam pesquisas no campo da simulação de cenários em diversas regiões do mundo. Nesse contexto, a presente pesquisa pretende simular as tendências de evolução do uso e cobertura da terra da Quarta Colônia/RS, para o ano de 2018, a partir de variáveis físicas; analisando as mudanças nos padrões de uso e cobertura da terra de 1988 a 2002 e de 2002 a 2008, espacializando-as e quantificando-as. Para tanto, foram classificados os padrões de uso e cobertura da terra em imagens dos satélites LANDSAT 5 e LANDSAT 7, referentes aos anos de 1988, 2002 e 2008, sendo os dois últimos mapas utilizados para a modelagem. A partir do cruzamento dos padrões de uso e cobertura da terra (floresta, campo, solo agrícola e água) entre si, em análise LEGAL, foram gerados mapas contendo as informações das mudanças evolutivas específicas de cada classe, inclusive das tendências individuais da simulação gerada para 2018, observando-se que não houve grandes mudanças. Os mapas de uso e cobertura da terra de 2002 e 2008 no Dinamica EGO possibilitaram a definição das probabilidades globais de transição do modelo markoviano, e as probabilidades locais de transição foram definidas pelo método probabilístico empírico pesos de evidência, baseado no teorema da probabilidade condicional de Bayes. As probabilidades de mudança de uso e cobertura da terra obtida permitiram a constituição de um modelo de autômatos celulares, baseado em algoritmos de transição estocásticos, sendo que as variáveis físicas se mostraram ser colaboradoras desse processo de mudança de uso e cobertura da terra ao longo do tempo. Os resultados da simulação foram validados espacialmente em função de um embasamento do procedimento estatístico, baseado em lógica fuzzy, apresentando resultados satisfatórios da simulação.
80

A expansão urbano-industrial do município de Americana - SP: geotecnologias aplicadas à análise temporal e simulação de cenários

Trentin, Gracieli [UNESP] 10 July 2008 (has links) (PDF)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-07-10Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T18:56:34Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 trentin_g_me_rcla.pdf: 2761301 bytes, checksum: fda6b758fce6a9b5a14c4421053e98ee (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar o processo de expansão urbano-industrial do município de Americana-SP, com o subsídio de geotecnologias. A ocupação urbana e industrial foi identificada e analisada ao longo de uma série temporal de aproximadamente 60 anos (1940 a 2005), apoiando-se na elaboração e análise do uso da terra do município. Essas etapas permitiram alcançar um diagnóstico da área de estudo atrelada a dados socioeconômicos e a identificação dos vetores de crescimento urbano-industrial para cada década da série temporal. A partir disso, foi desenvolvida a etapa de modelagem dinâmica espacial, utilizando-se um modelo de autômatos celulares para simular os cenários de uso da terra e obter prognósticos para a dinâmica urbana de Americana. Observou-se que a expansão urbano-industrial bem como a formação do contingente populacional do município acompanhou o processo de desenvolvimento do país, sendo o reflexo das políticas governamentais e do desempenho econômico e social que caracterizou cada período. Verificou-se também que o desenvolvimento industrial teve importante papel na ocupação urbana e no crescimento populacional, uma vez que impulsionou os fluxos migratórios que afluíram para o município. A ocupação da quase totalidade do território pela mancha urbana representa um entrave ao crescimento futuro da cidade. Entretanto, mantidas as características de uso e ocupação atuais, a dinâmica territorial deverá ser menor no curto e médio prazo, de acordo com a atual tendência de redução no ritmo de crescimento da população e, por conseqüência da área urbana, semelhante ao observado na maioria dos centros urbanos. Em suma, foram apontadas possíveis aplicações deste trabalho, além de sugestões, sobretudo relacionadas à etapa de modelagem, a qual constitui importante subsídio para o planejamento urbano. / The aim of this research is to analyze the urban-industrial expansion process of Americana-SP town by means of geotechnologies. The urban and industrial occupation were identified and analyzed along a temporal series of approximately 60 years (1940 to 2005), based on the elaboration and analysis of land use. These stages allowed to achieve a diagnosis of studied area linked to socioeconomics information and the identification of vectors of urban-industrial growth for each decade of the temporal series. Next, the spatial dynamic modeling using a cellular automata model was developed to simulate land use scenarios and to obtain prognosis for the urban dynamics of Americana. It was observed that the urban-industrial expansion as well as the formation of population contingent followed the process of national development, reflecting governmental politicies and the economic and social performance that characterized each period. Furthermore, the industrial development had an important role on urban occupation and on population growth, since that impelled the rural-urban flows. The spread of urban areas in Americana municipality represents a hindrance to the future city growth. However, if the current land use and occupation trends are maintained the spatial dynamic would be small for the short and medium terms, according to actual tendency of decrease on population growth rates and consequently of urban areas, similar to that observed on the majority of urban centers worldwide. Finally, possible applications this work are pointed out, besides suggestions related to the advances in spatial modeling, since it constitutes an important tool for urban planning.

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