This thesis investigated money supply behaviors in the ‘BRICS’ group from 1982 to 2012. It empirically analyzed causality relationships between related monetary indicators by using quarterly data and time series econometric methods. In four countries: Brazil, China, Russia (the period of 2004-2012) and South Africa (1982-1993), this study found money supply endogeneity evidence (bank loans cause the money supply, or there is bidirectional between these two). Other countries, India and the 1982-2003 period of Russia, money supply was found to be exogenous, i.e. money supply cause bank loans. Nonetheless, traditional Monetarian view still holds across the five economies in the short run. The findings reflected discretionary monetary policies targeting monetary aggregates in the short term, despite a neutral role of most central banks in the long run.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 IzabelCristinadoNascimento2006.pdf.jpg: 15864 bytes, checksum: 2507cc30f6de026b934f261a57620463 (MD5) IzabelCristinadoNascimento2006.pdf.txt: 64112 bytes, checksum: ced24b4ed408d8a66ea990779714d5e3 (MD5) IzabelCristinadoNascimento2006.pdf: 484084 bytes, checksum: 990cbca4e39161ccc6ef1d8a67d52e02 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-01-16T00:00:00Z / The demographic dynamics has a fundamental importance in the determination of the economic growth in a country. Some empirical works that had estimated the coefficient that associates the level of per capita income of the countries to the tax of demographic growth conclude that it can have opposing signal to the expected one, not significant or very raised in relation to that if it waits in theoretical terms. This dissertation has an a objective to analyze the theories of demographic dynamics and evaluate in which measure it can have simultaneous determination between the product per worker and the population growth. The econometric analysis, on the basis of a panel of 60 countries in the period between 1960 and 2000, indicated that to estimate of more appropriately form the effect of the demographic dynamics on the level of product per worker and on the economic growth it is necessary to consider the econometrical questions of simultaneity and endogeneidade / A dinâmica demográfica possui um papel fundamental na determinação do crescimento econômico de um país. Vários trabalhos empíricos que estimaram o coeficiente que associa o nível de renda per capita dos países à taxa de crescimento demográfico, concluem que ele pode ter sinal oposto ao esperado, não significativos ou muito elevados em relação ao que se espera em termos teóricos. Essa dissertação tem por objetivo analisar as teorias de dinâmica demográfica e avaliar em que medida pode haver determinação simultânea entre o produto por trabalhador e o crescimento populacional. A análise econometrica, com base em um painel de 60 países no período entre 1960 e 2000, indicou que para se estimar de forma mais apropriada o efeito da dinâmica demográfica sobre o nível de produto por trabalhador e sobre o crescimento econômico é necessário ater-se às questões econométricas de simultaneidade e de endogeneidade.

The study investigates the financial sector development threshold levels that would influence FDI inflows. The threshold levels identified are 41.27% of stock market capitalisation for stock market turnover, 53.55% of GDP for stock market value traded, 121.53% of GDP for stock market capitalisation, 114.43% of GDP for domestic credit to private sector by banks, 144.06% of GDP for domestic credit provided by financial sector, 0.22% of GDP for outstanding domestic private debt securities and 41.26% of GDP for outstanding domestic public debt securities. The results show that higher stock market and banking sector development above the threshold level positively and significantly influence FDI inflows whilst the influence of lower stock market and banking sector development on FDI inflows was weak and less significant. Levels of private bond market development equal to or greater than the threshold level are found to have a positive but non-significant impact on FDI inflows whereas private bond market development levels less than the threshold has a weaker positive and non-significant influence on FDI inflows. On the contrary, public bond market development levels equal to or greater than the threshold level negatively influenced FDI inflows whilst levels of public bond market development less than the threshold positively but non-significantly attracted FDI inflows into emerging markets. / Business Management / Ph. D. (Management Studies)

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Dans cette thèse, je me suis interessé à l’identification partielle des effets de traitements dans différents modèles de choix discrets avec traitements endogènes. Les modèles d’effets de traitement ont pour but de mesurer l’impact de certaines interventions sur certaines variables d’intérêt. Le type de traitement et la variable d’intérêt peuvent être défini de manière générale afin de pouvoir être appliqué à plusieurs différents contextes. Il y a plusieurs exemples de traitement en économie du travail, de la santé, de l’éducation, ou en organisation industrielle telle que les programmes de formation à l’emploi, les techniques médicales, l’investissement en recherche et développement, ou l’appartenance à un syndicat. La décision d’être traité ou pas n’est généralement pas aléatoire mais est basée sur des choix et des préférences individuelles. Dans un tel contexte, mesurer l’effet du traitement devient problématique car il faut tenir compte du biais de sélection. Plusieurs versions paramétriques de ces modèles ont été largement étudiées dans la littérature, cependant dans les modèles à variation discrète, la paramétrisation est une source importante d’identification. Dans un tel contexte, il est donc difficile de savoir si les résultats empiriques obtenus sont guidés par les données ou par la paramétrisation imposée au modèle. Etant donné, que les formes paramétriques proposées pour ces types de modèles n’ont généralement pas de fondement économique, je propose dans cette thèse de regarder la version nonparamétrique de ces modèles. Ceci permettra donc de proposer des politiques économiques plus robustes. La principale difficulté dans l’identification nonparamétrique de fonctions structurelles, est le fait que la structure suggérée ne permet pas d’identifier un unique processus générateur des données et ceci peut être du soit à la présence d’équilibres multiples ou soit à des contraintes sur les observables. Dans de telles situations, les méthodes d’identifications traditionnelles deviennent inapplicable d’où le récent développement de la littérature sur l’identification dans les modèles incomplets. Cette littérature porte une attention particuliere à l’identification de l’ensemble des fonctions structurelles d’intérêt qui sont compatibles avec la vraie distribution des données, cet ensemble est appelé : l’ensemble identifié. Par conséquent, dans le premier chapitre de la thèse, je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans le modèle triangulaire binaire. Dans le second chapitre, je considère le modèle de Roy discret. Je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans un modèle de choix de secteur lorsque la variable d’intérêt est discrète. Les hypothèses de sélection du secteur comprennent le choix de sélection simple, étendu et généralisé de Roy. Dans le dernier chapitre, je considère un modèle à variable dépendante binaire avec plusieurs dimensions d’hétérogéneité, tels que les jeux d’entrées ou de participation. je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les fonctions de profits des firmes dans un jeux avec deux firmes et à information complète. Dans tout les chapitres, l’ensemble identifié des fonctions d’intérêt sont écrites sous formes de bornes et assez simple pour être estimées à partir des méthodes d’inférence existantes. / In this thesis, I have been interested in the nonparametric (partial) identification of structural potential outcome functions and Average Treatment Effect (ATE) in various discrete models with endogenous selection and treatment. This topic of treatment effect concerns measuring the impact of an intervention on an outcome of interest. The type of treatments and outcomes may be broadly defined in order to be applied in many different contexts. There are many examples of treatment in economics (Labor, health, education, trade, industrial organization) such that Job training programs, surgical procedures, higher education level, research and development investment, being a member of a trade union etc. The decision to be treated or not, is usually not random but is based on individual choices or preferences. In such a context, determining the impact of the treatment becomes an important issue since we have to take into account the selectivity bias. The parametric version of such models has been widely studied in the literature, however in models with discrete variation, the parametrization is a strong source of identification. Then, we don’t know if the empirical results we obtain, are driven by the data or by the parametrization imposed on the model. I propose to look at a fully nonparametric version of those models, in order, to have more robust policy recommendations. The central challenge in this nonparametric structural identification is that the hypothesized structure fails to identify a single generating process for the data, either because of multiple equilibria or data observability constraints. In such cases, many traditional identification techniques become inapplicable and a framework for identification in incomplete models is developing, with an initial focus on identification of the set of structural functions of interest compatible with the true data distribution (hereafter identified set). Therefore, in the first chapter, I provide a full characterization of the identified set for the ATE in a binary triangular system. In the second chapter, I consider a model with sector specific unobserved heterogeneity. I provide the full characterization of the identified set for the structural potential outcome functions of an instrumental variables model of sectoral choice with discrete outcomes. Assumptions on selection include the simple, extended and generalized Roy models. In the last chapter, I consider a binary model with several unobserved heterogeneity dimensions, such as entry and participation games. I provide the full characterization of the identified set for the payoffs in 2 2 games with perfect information, including duopoly entry and coordination games. In all chapters, the identified set of the functions of interest are nonparametric intersection bounds and are simple enough to lend themselves to existing inference methods.

Este trabalho faz uma reconstituição histórica da política monetária praticada no Brasil desde a implementação do Plano Real, revisa uma determinada discussão teórica sobre o tema da taxa de juros brasileira e suas possíveis relações perversas com outras variáveis macroeconômicas, e apresenta um modelo para tentar captar esses possíveis efeitos perversos da política monetária, tais como descritos na maior parte dos trabalhos apontados na discussão teórica. No último decênio, a taxa de juros nominal doméstica sempre esteve acima dos 15% ao ano, sendo que em grande parte do período analisado, a taxa de juros real ficou acima deste patamar. Com efeito, essa condução da política monetária trouxe à tona determinados efeitos indesejados, tais como a contaminação do risco-País pela taxa de juros doméstica. Entre os principais resultados obtidos seguindo uma análise com base num modelo VAR em que se avaliam choques nas variáveis por meio de funções impulso-resposta generalizadas (GIR), encontra-se que o risco soberano brasileiro, no período pós-desvalorização cambial, tem como determinantes os fundamentos macroeconômicos, em particular variáveis fiscais, como a dívida líquida do setor público consolidado como proporção do PIB, e a participação da dívida externa como proporção da dívida total. Outro determinante do risco percebido de moratória é a taxa de juros nominal interna. Quanto mais elevada a taxa de juros, mais elevado o risco. Em terceiro lugar, um aumento da taxa de juros pode levar a uma desvalorização cambial, desde que as expectativas dos agentes sejam afetadas pelo aumento dos riscos provocados pela elevação dos juros. / This dissertation revisits the historical background of the monetary policy regime adopted in Brazil in the period after the implementation of the Real stabilization plan, addresses to a determined theoretical framework about the domestic interest rates and its possible undesired relations with other macroeconomic variables, and presents a model to capture these possible relations of monetary policy. In the last decade, domestic nominal interest rate have always been above 15% p.a., and in a significant period of time the real interest rate stood above this level. Therefore, the conduct of monetary policy has brought up some undesired effects, such as the contagion of the Country-Risk to the domestic interest rate. Amongst the main results obtained in this paper, using a VAR model in a Generalized Impulse Response (GIR) framework for the period after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime, stands out that the sovereign risk of Brazil is determined by macroeconomic fundaments, especially fiscal variables such as the Net Debt of the Public Sector and the share of foreign debt in the total debt. Another significant determinant of the perceived risk of default is the domestic interest rate. The higher the domestic nominal interest rate, the higher the risk. Lastly, a domestic interest rate increase may take to exchange rate depreciation if expectations are affected by the augmented risk derived from the higher domestic interest rate.

Este trabalho faz uma reconstituição histórica da política monetária praticada no Brasil desde a implementação do Plano Real, revisa uma determinada discussão teórica sobre o tema da taxa de juros brasileira e suas possíveis relações perversas com outras variáveis macroeconômicas, e apresenta um modelo para tentar captar esses possíveis efeitos perversos da política monetária, tais como descritos na maior parte dos trabalhos apontados na discussão teórica. No último decênio, a taxa de juros nominal doméstica sempre esteve acima dos 15% ao ano, sendo que em grande parte do período analisado, a taxa de juros real ficou acima deste patamar. Com efeito, essa condução da política monetária trouxe à tona determinados efeitos indesejados, tais como a contaminação do risco-País pela taxa de juros doméstica. Entre os principais resultados obtidos seguindo uma análise com base num modelo VAR em que se avaliam choques nas variáveis por meio de funções impulso-resposta generalizadas (GIR), encontra-se que o risco soberano brasileiro, no período pós-desvalorização cambial, tem como determinantes os fundamentos macroeconômicos, em particular variáveis fiscais, como a dívida líquida do setor público consolidado como proporção do PIB, e a participação da dívida externa como proporção da dívida total. Outro determinante do risco percebido de moratória é a taxa de juros nominal interna. Quanto mais elevada a taxa de juros, mais elevado o risco. Em terceiro lugar, um aumento da taxa de juros pode levar a uma desvalorização cambial, desde que as expectativas dos agentes sejam afetadas pelo aumento dos riscos provocados pela elevação dos juros. / This dissertation revisits the historical background of the monetary policy regime adopted in Brazil in the period after the implementation of the Real stabilization plan, addresses to a determined theoretical framework about the domestic interest rates and its possible undesired relations with other macroeconomic variables, and presents a model to capture these possible relations of monetary policy. In the last decade, domestic nominal interest rate have always been above 15% p.a., and in a significant period of time the real interest rate stood above this level. Therefore, the conduct of monetary policy has brought up some undesired effects, such as the contagion of the Country-Risk to the domestic interest rate. Amongst the main results obtained in this paper, using a VAR model in a Generalized Impulse Response (GIR) framework for the period after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime, stands out that the sovereign risk of Brazil is determined by macroeconomic fundaments, especially fiscal variables such as the Net Debt of the Public Sector and the share of foreign debt in the total debt. Another significant determinant of the perceived risk of default is the domestic interest rate. The higher the domestic nominal interest rate, the higher the risk. Lastly, a domestic interest rate increase may take to exchange rate depreciation if expectations are affected by the augmented risk derived from the higher domestic interest rate.

<p>This thesis consists of a summary and four papers. The first two concerns health care and sickness absence, and the last two pharmaceutical costs and prices.</p><p>Paper [I] presents an economic federation model which resembles the situation in, for example, Sweden. In the model the state governments provide health care, the fed-eral government provides a sickness benefit and both levels tax labor income. The re-sults show that the states can have either an incentive to under- or over-provide health care. The federal government can, by introducing an intergovernmental transfer, in-duce the state governments to provide the socially optimal amount of health care.</p><p>In Paper [II] the effect of aggregated public health care expenditure on absence from work due to sickness or disability was estimated. The analysis was based on data from a panel of the Swedish municipalities for the period 1993-2004. Public health care expenditure was found to have no statistically significant effect on absence and the standard errors were small enough to rule out all but a minimal effect. The result held when separate estimations were conducted for women and men, and for absence due to sickness and disability.</p><p>The purpose of Paper [III] was to study the effects of the introduction of fixed pharmaceutical budgets for two health centers in Västerbotten, Sweden. Estimation results using propensity score matching methods show that there are no systematic differences for either price or quantity per prescription between health centers using fixed and open-ended budgets. The analysis was based on individual prescription data from the two health centers and a control group both before and after the introduction of fixed budgets.</p><p>In Paper [IV] the introduction of the Swedish substitution reform in October 2002 was used as a natural experiment to examine the effects of increased consumer infor-mation on pharmaceutical prices. Using monthly data on individual pharmaceutical prices, the average reduction of prices due to the reform was estimated to four percent for both brand name and generic pharmaceuticals during the first four years after the reform. The results also show that the price adjustment was not instant.</p>

<p><strong>Syfte:</strong> Syftet är att försöka urskilja samband mellan hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer och efterfrågan på specifika bostadsattribut. Vår frågeställning är: Finns det samband mellan vilka specifika attribut som efterfrågas hos bostadsrätter och hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer? Vår förhoppning är att åtminstone få en indikation på vad olika typer av hushåll efterfrågar.<strong>Metod: </strong>Denna studie baseras på en databas bestående av bostadsrättsförsäljningar som skett i Gävle under år 2008 samt socioekonomisk information om de hushåll som förvärvat dessa bostadsrätter. För att estimera hushålls efterfrågan på ett specifikt bostadsrättsattribut har en tvåstegsmetod använts. I ett första steg avslöjas de underförstådda marginalpriserna av bostadsrätters egenskaper med hjälp av den hedoniska metoden. Dessa marginalpriser används i ett andra steg där efterfrågeekvationer för enskilda bostadsrättsattribut estimeras. Beräkningarna utförs i statistikprogrammet EViews.<strong>Resultat & slutsats: </strong>Resultatet visar att vissa bostadsrättsattribut kan sammankopplas med hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer. Vidare visar resultatet tydliga men mycket svaga mönster vad gäller efterfrågan på marknaden, trots att prisstrukturen på samma marknad är oerhört utmärkande. Vi kan konstatera att prissättningen på bostadsrätters attribut är väldigt tydlig medan konsumtionen av samma attribut är otydlig.<strong>Förslag till fortsatt forskning:</strong> Intressant vore att jämföra studier av denna typ med hyresmarknadens hyressättningsmodell och se om den utgår från samma värdering av bostadens attribut som det visat sig att hushåll efterfrågar. Ytterligare ett förslag är att skatta en faktisk boendekostnad för samtliga hushåll i datamaterialet och använda disponibel inkomst istället för taxerad förvärvsinkomst i efterfrågefunktionen.<strong>Uppsatsens bidrag: </strong>Studien har visat hur man kan estimera och finna samband mellan bostadsattribut och hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer. Därutöver har problemet med endogenitet behandlats genom instrumentvariabler och en uppdelning av datamaterialet i fyra delområden.</p> / <p><strong>Aim:</strong> The purpose of this study is to try to distinguish a relationship between household socio-economic factors and the demand for specific housing attributes. Our question is: Is there a connection between the specific attributes requested by households and its socio-economic factors? Our hope is to at least get an indication of what different types of households demand.<strong>Method:</strong> This study is based on information of tenant-owner flats sales made in Gävle in 2008 as well as socio-economic information of those households who bought these flats. In order to estimate demand for a specific housing attribute a two-step method is used. In a first step the implicit marginal prices of housing attributes are revealed by the hedonic method. These marginal rates are used in a second step to reveal the specific household demand for individual housing attributes. The calculations are made in the statistical program EViews.<strong>Result & Conclusions: </strong>The result shows that some housing attributes can be linked with household socio-economic factors. The result shows a clear but very weak pattern of demand in the market, despite that the price structure in the same market is extremely remarkable. We note that the prices of housing attributes are very clear while the consumption of the same attributes is unclear.<strong>Suggestions for future research: </strong>It would be interesting to compare the results of this type of study with rental markets rent-model and see if it is based on the same valuation of the dwelling attributes that household’s demand. Another proposal is to estimate the actual housing costs for all of the households in the data and use disposable income rather than actual income in the demand function.<strong>Contribution of the thesis: </strong>The study has revealed how to estimate and identify household demand for specific housing attributes. In addition, the problem of endogeneity has been treated with instrument variables and a separation of the data set into four submarkets.</p>

Syfte: Syftet är att försöka urskilja samband mellan hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer och efterfrågan på specifika bostadsattribut. Vår frågeställning är: Finns det samband mellan vilka specifika attribut som efterfrågas hos bostadsrätter och hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer? Vår förhoppning är att åtminstone få en indikation på vad olika typer av hushåll efterfrågar.Metod: Denna studie baseras på en databas bestående av bostadsrättsförsäljningar som skett i Gävle under år 2008 samt socioekonomisk information om de hushåll som förvärvat dessa bostadsrätter. För att estimera hushålls efterfrågan på ett specifikt bostadsrättsattribut har en tvåstegsmetod använts. I ett första steg avslöjas de underförstådda marginalpriserna av bostadsrätters egenskaper med hjälp av den hedoniska metoden. Dessa marginalpriser används i ett andra steg där efterfrågeekvationer för enskilda bostadsrättsattribut estimeras. Beräkningarna utförs i statistikprogrammet EViews.Resultat &amp; slutsats: Resultatet visar att vissa bostadsrättsattribut kan sammankopplas med hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer. Vidare visar resultatet tydliga men mycket svaga mönster vad gäller efterfrågan på marknaden, trots att prisstrukturen på samma marknad är oerhört utmärkande. Vi kan konstatera att prissättningen på bostadsrätters attribut är väldigt tydlig medan konsumtionen av samma attribut är otydlig.Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Intressant vore att jämföra studier av denna typ med hyresmarknadens hyressättningsmodell och se om den utgår från samma värdering av bostadens attribut som det visat sig att hushåll efterfrågar. Ytterligare ett förslag är att skatta en faktisk boendekostnad för samtliga hushåll i datamaterialet och använda disponibel inkomst istället för taxerad förvärvsinkomst i efterfrågefunktionen.Uppsatsens bidrag: Studien har visat hur man kan estimera och finna samband mellan bostadsattribut och hushålls socioekonomiska faktorer. Därutöver har problemet med endogenitet behandlats genom instrumentvariabler och en uppdelning av datamaterialet i fyra delområden. / Aim: The purpose of this study is to try to distinguish a relationship between household socio-economic factors and the demand for specific housing attributes. Our question is: Is there a connection between the specific attributes requested by households and its socio-economic factors? Our hope is to at least get an indication of what different types of households demand.Method: This study is based on information of tenant-owner flats sales made in Gävle in 2008 as well as socio-economic information of those households who bought these flats. In order to estimate demand for a specific housing attribute a two-step method is used. In a first step the implicit marginal prices of housing attributes are revealed by the hedonic method. These marginal rates are used in a second step to reveal the specific household demand for individual housing attributes. The calculations are made in the statistical program EViews.Result &amp; Conclusions: The result shows that some housing attributes can be linked with household socio-economic factors. The result shows a clear but very weak pattern of demand in the market, despite that the price structure in the same market is extremely remarkable. We note that the prices of housing attributes are very clear while the consumption of the same attributes is unclear.Suggestions for future research: It would be interesting to compare the results of this type of study with rental markets rent-model and see if it is based on the same valuation of the dwelling attributes that household’s demand. Another proposal is to estimate the actual housing costs for all of the households in the data and use disposable income rather than actual income in the demand function.Contribution of the thesis: The study has revealed how to estimate and identify household demand for specific housing attributes. In addition, the problem of endogeneity has been treated with instrument variables and a separation of the data set into four submarkets.