This thesis deals with the regional population projections. The theoretical part is divided into several chapters, which describe and explain the basic concepts, such as demographics, birth rate, death rate and more. There are also analyzed the actual projection methods and specifying formulas. Last but not least consulted on the population projection of the Czech Republic in 2050 and the most recent projections up to the year 2100th. Own part is about the screening for districts in South Bohemian region. Projections were prepared for districts: Ceske Budejovice, Cesky Krumlov, Jindrichuv Hradec, Prachatice, Pisek, Strakonice and Tabor. As evaluation indicators were elected, population, life expectancy, total fertility rate and the secondary sex ratio or even sex ratio. Projections for population and life expectancy has been created specially for men and women.

Do ponto de vista da produtividade, a fertilidade é um dos parâmetros de maior importância em um rebanho bovino comercial e esta é influenciada por vários fatores, entre eles estão as condições do trato reprodutivo das fêmeas e a qualidade do sêmen utilizado. O influxo de células inflamatórias no local da deposição do sêmen logo após a inseminação artificial (IA) pode ser intensificada na presença de maior número de espermatozoides lesados durante a IA, caracterizando uma endometrite. Este estudo foi conduzido em três experimentos. Com o objetivo de comparar os métodos de colheita de material endometrial por escova ginecológica (EU) e lavado uterino (LU), bem como a interferência destes procedimentos na hemodinâmica uterina, foi proposto o Experimento 01, onde pode-se constatar que ambas as técnicas permitem o recolhimento de amostras em quantidade e qualidade suficiente para contagem, e que a porcentagem de células polimorfonucleares obtidas pela técnica LU foi superior a EU. Maior fluxo sanguíneo das artérias uterinas foi encontrado no momento de 4 horas após a realização de LU, sugerindo que este influencia na resposta vascular inflamatória. Para avaliar o efeito da LU após a IA em Tempo Fixo (IATF) na fertilidade dos animais, executou-se o Experimento 02 e constatou-se que não há diferença no índice de prenhez entre os animais submetidos ou não à LU, demonstrando que a técnica não interfere na taxa de fertilidade. Com o intuito de investigar a interferência da qualidade do sêmen na fertilidade, resposta inflamatória e hemodinâmica uterina, foi proposto o Experimento 03, onde foi possível observar influência da qualidade do sêmen sobre a taxa de prenhez, verificou-se maior porcentagem de vacas prenhes quando inseminadas com sêmen com maiores percentuais de espermatozoides apresentando integridade das membranas plasmática e acrossomal e função mitocondrial (PIAIC). Notou-se ainda a ocorrência de endometrite em 65,3 % dos animais, os quais apresentaram taxa de prenhez inferior aos que não apresentaram inflamação. Pode-se concluir que a qualidade do sêmen e a endometrite interferem na taxa de fertilidade bovina. / When productivity is taking into account, fertility is one of the most important parameters in a commercial herd. It is influenced by several factors, especially by the conditions of the female reproductive tract and the quality of the semen used. The influx of inflammatory cells at the site of semen deposition after artificial insemination (AI) can be intensified by the deposition of a greater number of dead spermatozoa during AI, which characterized endometritis. This study was conducted in three different experiments. In order to compare the methods of collection of endometrial sampling by swab using a gynecological brush (GB) or uterine flushing (UF), as well as the interference of these procedures in uterine hemodynamics, we designed experiment 01. Our results reveal that both techniques allow collecting samples with good quality and sufficient quantity to be counted; moreover, the average percentage of polymorphonuclear cells obtained by UF was greater compared to those obtained by GB. It may be noted that the increased blood flow was observed in samples collected four hours after the UF procedure, suggesting that it may have an influence on the vascular inflammatory response. To evaluate the effect of uterine flushing after AIFT on animal fertility we designed the experiment 02. Our results revealed that there is no statistical difference in pregnancy rates between flushed and non flushed animals, showing that the UF does not interfere with fertility rate. Experiment 03 was designed in order to assess the inflammatory response induced by different qualities of semen and their interference on uterine hemodynamic and fertility. There was an influence of semen quality on pregnancy rates: higher percentage of pregnancy was found in the group of cows inseminated with semen with plasma and acrossome membrane integrity and mitochondrial function (PIAIC). Endometritis was noticed in 65.3% of the cows and these animals presented lower pregnancy rate compared to those that did not show an inflammatory response. We concluded that semen quality and endometritis interferes with fertility rate in bovine species.

This work aims to outline the factors that may affect probability of transition from motherhood of two children to motherhood of three children, in positive or negative way. This work would also like to specify, if this factors can be affected and so the better conditions for three-children-families can be achieved. These goals are reached by analysing demographical data of years 1990-2011 and also by own research of qualitative data in group of mothers-of-two-children in age up to 45 including. This work also contains theoretical background of the problem of decreasing fertility, the development of indicators of fertility of third child in the Czech Republic and selected states of Europe. It is also important to characterize the progression of length of interval between delivery of second and the third child, analysis of probability of transition from motherhood of two children to motherhood of three and estimations of cohort probability of giving birth to third child.

Analysing fertility developments in selected European countries between 1970 and 2014 using alternative methods Abstract Transversal fertility indices as the total fertility rate are distorted by tempo effect when timing of childbearing is changing. New indices as the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate remove this distortion and give another perspective on fertility trends in countries with present tempo effect. These countries are former Eastern Bloc countries and other European countries. This thesis uses the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate and data from Human Fertility Database to describe tempo distortion in fertility level in Sweden, Norway, Czechia, Slovakia, Estonia and Lithuania in period 1970-2014. A more detailed analysis by parity in Sweden and Czechia is conducted in the same period. Negative tempo effect has been present from 1970s in Sweden and Norway and then from 90s in the countries left with fertility postponement being very widespread. The tempo effect level in Sweden and Czechia was substantial at parity one and diminishing with higher parities. Keywords: fertility, timing, level, postponement, adjusted total fertility rate, tempo effect Number of characters without blank spaces: 138 653

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / The purpose of this research is to study the effect of different demographic and socio economic factors on the contraceptive use among currently married women of age 15-49 in the two regions of Ethiopia, Amhara (17,214,056) and Oromiya (27,158,471). Data are obtained from the 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Information on contraceptive use was provided by current use 1334 (14.7), future use 4017 (52.0), unmet need for spacing 1817 (20.0) and limiting 1249 (13.3) currently married women aged 15-49 interviewed in the 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). / South Africa

Impact of economic crisis on fertility level in EU member states Abstract The aim of this diploma thesis is to provide a detailed development overview of the selected indicators, i.e., GDP per capita, unemployment rate and total fertility rate, in the context of the Global Economic Crisis, which, on a European scale, started in 2008, and evaluate the impact of the crisis on fertility levels across EU countries. The diploma thesis further concerns itself with various approaches to the relation between economic development and fertility, briefly with the causes of the Global Economic Crisis and with family policy measures in response to worsening economic conditions. Using cluster and regression analyses, the relationship between the economic indicators and total fertility rates in relation to the onset of the crisis has been examined. Even though total fertility rates of individual EU countries were affected differently by the change of economic conditions, the results indicate that changes in unemployment rates affect fertility levels. The decline in fertility levels during the crisis, which occurred in most of the examined countries, is certainly the result of a large number of factors affecting reproductive behaviour. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the symptoms of the crisis significantly...

本論文在實質與貨幣內生成長模型中探討政府租稅的效果，而其中又以稅制改革政策為主角。 在第二章中，我們將內生生育率的概念引入了Romer (1986)的實質經濟成長模型，並說明當政府在維持稅收中立的原則下將所得稅制轉換為消費稅制時，將可能對經濟成長與社會福利有所傷害。而後我們也提供了一些數值模擬以支持我們的論點。至於第三章，我們將勞動供給內生的概念引入一個有預付現金限制(Cash-in-Advance)的貨幣經濟成模型，在本章中我們得到了所謂「Mundell-Tobin Effect」與「消費稅中立性」的成立與否，將取決於政府稅收的用途；接著我們把焦點放在資本的生產外部性與消費稅所造成的扭曲上並導出最適貨幣政策；最後，在維持政府的支出水準下，我們得到將消費稅制轉換為通膨稅制時，將對經濟成長有正面的效果。 / The dissertation provides a theoretical framework to investigate the effects of tax policies, especially the tax reform, in real and monetary models of endogenous growth. In Chapter 2, by shedding light on the endogenous fertility choice, we set up a simple Romer (1986)-type endogenous growth model and show that, in a departure from the existing literature, a switch from a decrease in income tax rate to an increase in consumption tax rate so as to ensure a revenue-neutrality could be harmful, rather than favorable, to both growth and welfare. In addition, we also conduct a simple numerical analysis to investigate the conditions in which the negative effect on growth and welfare occurs. As to the monetary model, an endogenous growth model with endogenous labor-leisure choice and cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint which is only imposed on consumption is established in Chapter 3. Through the model, we found that the Mundell-Tobin effect and the validity of consumption tax neutrality depend on the usages of tax revenue. Next, focusing on the distortions due to the production externality of capital and consumption tax, the optimal monetary policy is also derived. Finally, we show that a switch from consumption taxation to inflation taxation to finance a given stream of government expenditure, namely tax switch, enhances economic growth through the increase in labor supply in a CIA economy and the qualitative equivalence between MIU and CIA approaches is still valid.

台灣地區在2002年時總生育率已降至1.33，而淨繁殖率為0.63，此種低於替代水準的生育率如果繼續下去，台灣地區的人口成長將於20-30年後，達成人口零成長並轉為負成長；生育率持續降低將造成人口老化，對國家經濟造成負面影響。 而影響生育率的因素很多，鑑於現代家庭在子女養育費用上的支出日益增加，尤以教育費用佔養育成本之比例最大，中低收入的家庭籌措教育費用的負擔，可能比生活開支更為沉重；尤其近年來政府廣開大學之門，但高等教育的經費並沒有比例的提升，因此不論公立或私立學校，從政府所得的補助相形減少；而大學學歷已成為基本的學位，可以預期未來幾乎每個人都會念大學，因此當大學學雜費調漲，將使父母養育子女成本增加，所以要思考是否因為養育成本的提高，而降低了生育子女的意願，使得台灣地區生育率年年下降。 本文的研究目的，主要在探討佔教育費用相當大比重的大學學雜費調漲，對台灣地區生育率的影響，並就其他影響台灣地區生育率的主要因素加以分析。以下為本論文之主要內容：第一章緒論，介紹本文研究背景與動機、研究目的與研究架構及研究限制。第二章文獻回顧，探討影響生育率因素的相關文獻，並就大學學雜費之文獻加以分別整理並予以說明。第三章，分析台灣地區生育率與大學學雜費調漲之變化；為了研究大學學雜費調漲對台灣地區生育率之影響，必須對近年來台灣地區生育率之變化及大學學雜費制度之變化作進一步之了解。第四章是研究方法，在本章中，將介紹本論文的資料來源、研究方法與實證模型及變數說明，以檢視大學學雜費調漲對台灣地區生育率的影響。第五章，就實證結果加以分析說明，第六章是本研究之結論與政策建議。 本文以1991年至2002年台灣地區23個縣市之追蹤資料為研究對象，經由固定效果模型的估計結果發現，大學學雜費對台灣地區生育率的影響有顯著的負相關；而其他影響台灣地區生育率的主要因素，如台灣地區各縣市家庭所得、失業率（尤以男性失業率為顯著）、婦女教育程度等均呈現顯著的負向影響，台灣地區嬰兒死亡率亦呈現負向影響但並不顯著，而婦女25 – 39歲年齡組群佔該縣市15歲以上婦女總人數比例，對台灣地區生育率的影響，呈現顯著的正向關係。 依本研究結果顯示，大學學學雜費是影響台灣地區生育率相當重要的因素，且教育學費與提升生育率皆屬於政府的政策，政府應該高度正視此問題並有所作為。至於控制其他因素後之地區特質效果，`顯示台灣地區之生育率，以東部地區為最高，南部地區最低；各縣市之特質效果則以新竹縣為最高、高雄市最低，可能與原住民比例、人口外移、城鄉差距或其他人文因素有關。因此，如何縮小城鄉差距,平衡人口分佈,使經濟均衡發展,也是值得政府思考與正視的問題。 關鍵詞：大學學雜費、生育率、固定效果模型、台灣地區

The aim of this thesis is to give an overview of the population (family) development from its start in the fifties of the twentieth century until today and to suggest its possible focus in the future. In the theoretical part, the development of family and pro-population precaution in the former Czechoslovakia is described, including international context. The next thing that the theoretical part deals with is the development of the states support of families after the Velvet Revolution in the context of economical a political changes. The analytical part of this thesis deals with the development of fertility using detailed demographic data of sectional and cohort analysis. The conclusion of this paper outlines possible direction of family politics which could ease the life of families, for example in the context of the reconciliation between family and work life.

[pt] Eu desenvolvo um modelo de gerações sobrepostas com crescimento salarial ao longo do ciclo de vida (LCWP, por sua sigla em inglês), taxa de mortalidade dependente da idade, restrições de liquidez e rigidez nominal. O modelo é calibrado para capturar a transição demográfica dos EUA, estimativas de LCWP e outras características importantes da economia dos EUA durante o período 3;72-4239. O modelo é usado para examinar a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros reais assim como os principais mecanismos de transmissão em jogo. Eu encontro que o rápido aumento da população em idade ativa entre 3;72 e 3;:2 contribuiu significativamente para o aumento das taxas de juros reais. A reversão desse processo, juntamente com o aumento da expectativa de vida, desencadeou um rápido declínio nas taxas de juros desde então. A heterogeneidade na propensão marginal a consumir entre os trabalhadores desempenha um papel importante na conexão desses movimentos de fertilidade e taxa de juros real. Num exercício adicional, devido à evidência de grandes erros de previsão da expectativa de vida, eu estendo o modelo com um processo de aprendizado sobre longevidade e encontro que ele pode aumentar significativamente a relevância de fatores demográficos na explicação dos movimentos reais das taxas de juros. Por fim, encontro que a falha dos bancos centrais em levar em conta a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros pode gerar, devido a mudanças não monitoradas na taxa de juros natural, variações na taxa de inflação. / [en] I develop an overlapping generations model with life cycle wage profile (LCWP), age-dependent mortality rate, liquidity constraints, and nominal rigidities. The model is calibrated to capture US demographic transition, LCWP estimations, and other salient features of the US economy during 3;72-4239. The model is then used to examine the relationship between demographics and real interest rates and the main transmission mechanisms in play. I find that the rapid increase in the working age population from 3;72-3;:2s has significantly contributed to the rise of real interest rates. The reversion of this process together with the increase in life expectancy triggered a rapid decline in the interest rates ever since. The heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume among workers plays a major role in connecting these fertility and real interest rate movements. In an additional exercise, due to the evidence on large life expectancy forecast errors, I introduce a learning process about longevity and find that it can significantly a ugment t he r elevance o f d emographic f actors in explaining real interest rate movements. Finally, I find t hat t he central banks failure to recognize the relationship between demographics and interest rates can generate, due to unaccounted changes in the natural interest rate, inflation rate variations.