This thesis attempts to contribute to the discussion over the problem of maritime piracy that poses a threat to maritime transport as well as international trade. The impact of maritime piracy was researched mainly in the context of Somali pirates. Currently the problem concerns other areas, which are the subject of my investigation. The thesis is focused on maritime piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and Southeast Asia, which are the current piracy hotspots. The main goal is to identify the implications of maritime piracy and analyze its impact on international trade in the given regions.

The objective of this thesis is to study two Basins of the Gulf of Guinea (GoG), namely the Dahomey and the Liberian Basins. These Basins are located in the northern part of the GoG, where oil and gas exploration has significantly increased in the last 10 years or so. We proposed geological descriptions of these two Basins. The key characteristics of the two models are the presence of channels and pinch-outs for depths of between 1 km and 2 km (these values are rescaled for our numerical purposes to 600- m and 700-m depths) and normal faults below 3 km (for our numerical purposes we use 1 km instead of 3 km). We showed that these models are consistent with the plate tectonics of the region, and the types of rocks and ages of rocks in these areas. Furthermore, we numerically generated seismic data for these two models and depth-migrated them. We then interpreted the migrated images under the assumption that the geologies are unknown. The conclusions of our interpretations are that we can see clearly the fault systems in both models. However, our results suggest that seismic interpretations of the channels and pinch-outs associated with the geology of the Dahomey and Liberian Basins will generally be difficult to identify. In these particular cases, we missed a number of channels and pinch-outs in our interpretations. The limited resolution of seismic images is the key reason for this misinterpretation.

Le golfe de Guinée constitue le principal enjeu de la géostratégie africaine post-bipolaire des Etats-Unis. Et pour cause, la région possède plusieurs forces profondes. Elles sont perceptibles avec les hydrocarbures liquides, devenus stratégiques pour les chefs d’état-major américains depuis qu’ils sont convoités, depuis 2000, par les Officiels chinois. Il ne s’agit donc pas pour les Etats-Unis d’accéder aux hydrocarbures de la région dans la seule finalité de diversifier leurs sources d’approvisionnement. Il s’agit avant tout de puissance. Pour les Officiels américains, il est vital d’endiguer dès à présent, et comme pour le Communisme hier, l’influence du « péril jaune » dans cette région stratégique. En réalité, l’ambition est, à terme, d’avoir à eux seuls, via leurs compagnies pétrolières, le « contrôle » exclusif du golfe de Guinée, ce qui ajouterait une valeur à leur puissance. Ces calculs répondent ainsi à l’impératif que poursuit leur politique étrangère post-bipolaire en général et post-11septembre 2001 en particulier : à savoir la pérennisation de l’hégémonie américaine par le « contrôle » des espaces-enjeux. L’autre force profonde de la région repose sur l’insécurité de la période allant de 1993 à 2008. Elle est liée à la mauvaise gouvernance de la rente pétrolière et des autres ressources stratégiques de la région. De même, le retard des Etats de la région dans les processus de démocratisation, la piraterie maritime qui sévit sur les côtes ouest africaines, sont autant de menaces et d’incertitudes qui pèsent sur la région. Elles préoccupent les administrations Clinton et Bush car elles sont susceptibles d’hypothéquer les intérêts vitaux des Etats-Unis dans la région. / The gulf of Guinea has being the main concern of the United States foreign policy toward Africa since the end of the Cold War. The reason can be found in the region’s fundamental forces, an instance by no means least being oil. The oil deposits of the gulf of Guinea have become strategic for U.S. Officials since Chinese Officials started coveting them. The access to the oil of the region is not for them mainly a way of diversifying their supply sources, but rather a matter of keeping up their hegemony. Indeed, as the United States did yesterday with Communism, they do today with China containing its influence in this region of greater importance. Their ambition is to gain the exclusive « control » over the gulf of Guinea via their oil companies. This strategy meets their post-Cold War foreign policy, and aims at perpetuating the American hegemony through the control of regions of greater importance. This policy has been re-enforced since September, 11, 2001. Other fundamental forces include bad governance of incomes from strategic resources such as oil. Other uncertainties that weigh on the gulf of Guinea include the sluggishness of the region in setting in place democratic processes, and sea piracy. All of them have worried both Clinton and Bush’s administrations: there are threats to US “vital” interests in the region.

The diploma thesis analyzes the impacts of maritime piracy on international community. The study analyzes the situation in terms of economic impacts, but also in terms of international cooperation in solving piracy issues. The aim of the diploma thesis is to define most vulnerable locations, quantify economic impacts and evaluate the impacts of military missions in the affected regions, as well as analyze the published recommendations.

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nigeria’s ability to play a regional stabilizing role in the Gulf of Guinea is severely thwarted due to unresolved conflict in the Niger Delta. Stemming from agitation by local communities, it evolved from peaceful rallies into an armed insurgency with the youth as the vanguard, and the conflict has subsequently spread into neighbouring countries like Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Benin. The aim of this study was to analyse the conflict in the Niger Delta, southern Nigeria in order to assess its impact on the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea. Taking the form of a political risk analysis, a means of forecasting potential pitfalls for an investing client to mitigate or manage risk, the study postulated that a country specific risk analysis would not be sufficient to analyse an integrated system like the Gulf of Guinea. Many scholars have suggested that regional analysis has become more important than national. In the context of Africa contagion effects, the spill over, positive as well as negative from one country to another, casts doubt on the value of assessing only a country specific risk analysis. Taking this phenomenon into account, a regional risk index was created in order to assess the regional implications of the conflict in the Niger Delta. The index consists of six variables chosen from four political risk frameworks, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Business Environment Risk Intelligence, The Brink Model, and finally the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were chosen on their utility for regional political risk analysis and their status as major risk variables, universal risk variables employed by various risk frameworks. In the subsequent political risk analysis, the first four variables were rated as having a high risk while the latter two garnered a medium risk rating. As such the overall rating for the political risk of the Gulf of Guinea was found to be high. This study finds that conventional country specific risk models are still very much the preferred means of analysing risk, but that regional risk analysis would have to take a larger role in political risk analysis in the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nigerië se vermoë om ‘n streeks-stabiliserende rol in die Golf van Guinea te speel, word ernstig gedwarsboom deur die onopgeloste konflik in die Niger Delta. Die oorsprong van die konflik in vreedsame gemeenskaplike protestaksie vir meer regverdige verdeling van olie inkomste het uitgekring na gewapende konflik, beide in die Delta self en in buurlande Kameroen, Ekwatoriale Guinee en Benin. Hierdie studie het gepoog om die konflik in die Nigeriese Delta te bestudeer om die impak van politieke risiko op die Golf van Guinea te assesseer. Die studie het die vorm van ‘n politieke risiko analise aangeneem, ‘n middel van vooruitskatting om potensiële valstrikke aan ‘n kliënt wat wil belê uit te wys om sodoende konflik te verlig of te beheer. Die studie veronderstel dat ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise onvoldoende is om ‘n geïntegreerde sisteem soos die Golf van Guinea te analiseer. Met menige akademici wat voorstel dat streeksanalise belangriker geword het as die nasionale, word daar in die konteks van die gevolge van Afrika-besmetting, die oorloop daarvan van een land na ‘n ander, positief sowel as negatief, ‘n skaduwee gegooi op die waarde van die assessering van slegs ‘n landspesifieke konflik analise. Met hierdie fenomeen in gedagte, is ‘n streek risiko inhoud geskep om die implikasies vir die konflik in die Niger Deltastreek, te assesseer. Die inhoud is saamgestel uit ‘n verskeidenheid van ses variante gekies uit vier politieke risiko raamwerke, nl die ‘Ekonomist Intelligence Unit’, die ‘Business Environment Risk Intelligence’, die ‘Brink Model’ en ook die ‘International Country Risk Guide’. Die variante is gebruik vir hulle waarde vir streekspolitieke risiko analise, asook die belangrikheid van hulle hoof risiko veranderlikheid, ‘n universele Hoof risiko variant wat gebruik word in verskillende risiko raamwerke. In die gevolglike politieke risiko-analise, is die vier variante beskou as ‘n baie hoë risiko, terwyl die laaste twee as medium risiko beskou word. Dus is die algemene taksering vir die politiese risiko in die Golf van Guinea baie hoog. Die studie vind uiteindelik dat lande se spesifieke risiko modelle steeds die verkose manier is om risiko’s te analiseer, alhoewel politieke risiko analise ‘n groter rol sal speel in toekomstige streek risiko analise.

This dissertation explores the growing field of study around Maritime Security. While an increasingly common sub-heading in American naval strategy documents, maritime security operations are largely framed around individual threats (i.e. counter-piracy, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics). Here, we endeavor to explore how a seemingly disparate set of transnational issues fit into a more coherent framework to give greater theoretical substance to the notion of Maritime Security as a distinct concept. In particular, we examine, as our research question, whether the Broken Windows theory, a criminological construct of social disorganization, provides the lens through which to theorize maritime security in the littorals. By extrapolating from criminology, this dissertation engages with a small but growing impulse in studies on insurgencies, terrorism, and piracy to look beyond classic theories of security to better understand phenomena of political violence. To evaluate our research question, we begin by identifying two critical components of the Broken Windows theory, multidimensionality and context specificity. Multidimensionality refers to the web of interrelated individuals, organizations, and infrastructure upon which crime operates. Context specificity refers to the powerful influence of an individual or community's environment on behavior. These two themes, as explored in this dissertation, are brought into stark relief through an application of the Broken Windows theory. Leveraging this understanding of the theory, we explore our research question by employing process-tracing and detailed descriptions across three case studies (one primary and two illustrative)—the Caribbean Basin, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. In so doing, we demonstrate how applying the lens that Broken Windows provides yields new and interesting perspectives on maritime security. As a consequence, this dissertation offers an example of a theoretical framework that provides greater continuity to the missions or threats frequently binned under the heading of maritime security, but infrequently associated with one another in the literature.

[pt] Constatou-se que os atos piratas no Golfo da Guiné, especialmente em Nigéria, estão fortemente associados ao roubo de cargas de petróleo e à pilhagem das instalações de exploração do produto. As ações dos perpetradores de tais atos, como é o caso da Nigéria que se debruçou mais, visam atingir o Estado Federal e as multinacionais exploradoras do petróleo bruto nacional. Com base na Teoria dos Complexos Regionais de Segurança e nos conceitos teóricos sobre a securitização, procurou-se analisar a pirataria na região estudada como uma ameaça existencial socialmente construída e como um objeto securitizado por uma variedade de atores políticos (regionais e internacionais). O objetivo cabal é mostrar que, no atual contexto da corrida pelo petróleo no Golfo da Guiné, a securitização da pirataria provoca a despolitização de questões econômicas e sociais inerentes aos Estados locais e a ameaça suas soberanias e integridades territoriais. / [en] It was found that pirates acts in the Gulf of Guinea, especially in Nigeria, are strongly associated with the theft of oil cargo and the pillaging of the product exploration installations. The actions of the perpetrators of such acts, as is the case of Nigeria which leaned more, aim to achieve the Federal State and the multinationals exploiting the national crude oil. Based on the Theory of Regional Security Complex and on the theoretical concepts of securitization, we tried to analyze piracy in the region studied as a socially constructed existential threat and a securitized object by a variety of political actors (regional and international). The full goal is to show that, in the current context of the race for oil in the Gulf of Guinea, the securitization of piracy causes the depoliticization of economic and social issues related to local states and threatens their sovereignty and territorial integrity.