Cette thèse vise à présenter des éléments nouveaux sur quelques questions clés relatives à l’architecture du système monétaire et financier international permettant d’éclairer les enjeux de son évolution possible au cours des années à venir. Les deux premiers chapitres présentent des éléments empiriques en faveur du « regard nouveau » sur la concurrence entre monnaies internationales. Ils étudient deux dimensions de l’utilisation internationale d’une monnaie, à savoir son rôle comme instrument de financement dans les marchés obligataires internationaux et celui de moyen de paiement des transactions internationales pour un bien homogène comme le pétrole. Le troisième chapitre met en lumière une source d’inertie dans le choix des monnaies internationales autre que les externalités et rendements croissants liées aux effets de réseau qui a attiré jusqu’à présent moins d’attention, à savoir les coûts fixes et les effets d’apprentissage endogènes. Le dernier chapitre identifie le risque d’aléa moral comme canal permettant à l’accumulation de réserves d’avoir des effets inflationnistes. / This dissertation presents new evidence on selected issues relating to the architecture of the international monetary and financial system, which might help shed some light on its potential evolution in the period ahead. The first two chapters of the dissertation provide new evidence in support of the “new view”. They study two different dimensions of international currency use, namely the role of currencies as financing units in the global bond market and their role as means of payment in international transactions in homogenous goods, specifically in the global oil market. The third chapter sheds light on a source of persistence in international currency use besides network externalities and increasing returns which had attracted less attention hitherto, namely sunk costs and endogenous learning effects. The last chapter identifies moral hazard as a channel through which reserve accumulation can have inflationary effects.

[pt] Este trabalho analisa a construção dos padrões regulatórios bancários internacionais a partir de uma perspectiva de Relações Internacionais. Tem como objeto a transformação regulatória observada em Basileia III no pós-crise 2007/2008, como forma de acessar a problemática mais ampla do Poder Estrutural no Sistema Monetário Internacional. A hipótese que guia o estudo é a de que apesar da regulação bancária internacional ser concernente ao poder estrutural do dólar há espaço de atuação política aos países emergentes/periféricos, na dimensão institucional internacional e ideacional. Analisa-se o sistema monetário internacional a partir de seus elementos constitutivos e os processos políticos, econômicos e ideacionais que conformam a história da regulação bancária internacional. Este tema representa, desde a perspectiva dos países periféricos, um pouco problematizado espaço de política internacional. Parte-se de análise epistemológica sobre o campo para realizar análise teórica sobre o Poder Estrutural e sua aplicação à análise do SMI. Considera-se o surgimento da regulação bancária internacional em meados dos anos 1970 e procura-se explorar como os marcos regulatórios acordados no BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) foram atingidos em relação aos eventos de crise que marcaram o sistema monetário internacional a partir dos anos 1980. Exploram-se, nesse sentido, os condicionantes estruturais e locais que levaram ao surgimento dos acordos de Basileia I, II e III. As conclusões consolidadas pelo estudo revelam a importância dos elos ideacionais e da atuação institucional advocatícia para a definição dos padrões de regulação bancária internacional e demonstram a possibilidade de um espaço político para atuação dos países mal posicionados em relação à hierarquia monetária internacional. / [en] This dissertation aims to analyze the construction of international banking regulatory standards from an International Relations perspective. Its object is the regulatory transformation observed in Basel III in the post-2007/2008 crisis as a way of accessing the broader problem of Structural Power in the International Monetary System and the political space available to peripheral countries in this context. The hypothesis that guide the study is that even though international banking regulation is aligned to US structural power, there are political spaces for action for emerging/peripheral countries in the international institutional and ideational dimensions. Therefore, it analyzes the international monetary system from its constituent elements and the political, economic and ideational processes that have shaped international banking regulation. This topic represents an under problematized space of international relations. The work departs from an epistemological analysis and follows through a theoretical analysis of Structural Power and its application towards the International Monetary System. It then considers the emergence of international banking regulation in the mid-1970s and seeks to explore how regulatory frameworks agreed upon the BCBS (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) were achieved in relation to crisis events that have characterized the international monetary system since the 1980s. In this sense, the structural and local constraints that led to the emergence of the Basel I, II and III agreements are explored. The conclusions consolidated by the study reveal the importance of ideational links and institutional action for standards definition in international banking regulation and suggest a political space for action by countries poorly positioned in the international monetary hierarchy.

L’équilibre économique mondial repose sur une asymétrie structurelle dont les pôles antagonistes principaux sont les États-Unis et l’Asie orientale. À la base de cet axe de tension géographique se trouve la question de la représentation mondiale de la richesse. La domination du dollar permet aux États-Unis un accès disproportionné aux ressources planétaires. Les pays créanciers, dont fait partie la Chine, hésitent à laisser flotter leur monnaie et attaquer l’hégémonie du dollar. Entre temps, les déséquilibres s’intensifient, tout comme les tensions politiques, par l’effet de ce système monétaire qui participe au maintien d’un monde unipolaire. Le système monétaire actuel n’offre aucune perspective endogène quant à la résolution des déséquilibres que son équilibre requiert. Ce mémoire cherche à identifier les stratégies géoéconomiques de la Chine pour se soustraire de l’emprise du dollar. / Present world economic stability rests on a structural asymmetry whose main antagonists are the United States and East Asia. Inducing the very existence of this axis is the question of the worldwide representation of value. The dollar’s domination in this matter allows the United States a disproportionate access to planetary resources. The creditor countries, among which China, hesitate to adopt a floating exchange rate and challenge this peculiar dimension of hegemony directly through the foreign exchange market. As time goes by the global imbalances intensify along with the corresponding political tensions. In effect, the dollarized global monetary system acts as a pillar of a unipolar world. The present international monetary system does not offer, by itself, a resolution to this polarisation process its existence generates. This mémoire offers a perspective on China’s geoeconomic strategies destined to extract itself from the dollar system. This is done through the observation of three sets of indicators : Forex reserves, commercial relations and domestic demand.

L’équilibre économique mondial repose sur une asymétrie structurelle dont les pôles antagonistes principaux sont les États-Unis et l’Asie orientale. À la base de cet axe de tension géographique se trouve la question de la représentation mondiale de la richesse. La domination du dollar permet aux États-Unis un accès disproportionné aux ressources planétaires. Les pays créanciers, dont fait partie la Chine, hésitent à laisser flotter leur monnaie et attaquer l’hégémonie du dollar. Entre temps, les déséquilibres s’intensifient, tout comme les tensions politiques, par l’effet de ce système monétaire qui participe au maintien d’un monde unipolaire. Le système monétaire actuel n’offre aucune perspective endogène quant à la résolution des déséquilibres que son équilibre requiert. Ce mémoire cherche à identifier les stratégies géoéconomiques de la Chine pour se soustraire de l’emprise du dollar. / Present world economic stability rests on a structural asymmetry whose main antagonists are the United States and East Asia. Inducing the very existence of this axis is the question of the worldwide representation of value. The dollar’s domination in this matter allows the United States a disproportionate access to planetary resources. The creditor countries, among which China, hesitate to adopt a floating exchange rate and challenge this peculiar dimension of hegemony directly through the foreign exchange market. As time goes by the global imbalances intensify along with the corresponding political tensions. In effect, the dollarized global monetary system acts as a pillar of a unipolar world. The present international monetary system does not offer, by itself, a resolution to this polarisation process its existence generates. This mémoire offers a perspective on China’s geoeconomic strategies destined to extract itself from the dollar system. This is done through the observation of three sets of indicators : Forex reserves, commercial relations and domestic demand.

Ma thèse étudie la pensée monétaire ainsi que les travaux de Ralph G. Hawtrey, Harry D. White et Robert Triffin, entre 1919 et 1960. Au cours des débats sur cette période, considérée comme fondatrice pour le système monétaire international, ces trois économistes ont été des personnalités clés qui ont influencé le cours de l’histoire monétaire. Premièrement, ils ont critiqué la théorie de l’étalon-or issue de la tradition ricardienne, en soulignant le caractère non-automatique et asymétrique du mécanisme d’ajustement de la balance des paiements. En s’articulant autour du rejet de cette tradition, les analyses de nos auteurs ont caractérisé les faiblesses liées au fonctionnement du système monétaire international. Deuxièmement, bénéficiant de leurs positions au Trésor américain et britannique, au FMI ou encore à la Fed, ces économistes ont exercé une influence sur les réformes en œuvrant pour une consolidation de la coopération monétaire internationale dans un régime de changes fixes. / My PhD dissertation studies Ralph G. Hawtrey’s, Harry D. White’s and Robert Triffin’s monetary thought and works between 1919 and 1960. Actively participating to key institutions which shaped the international monetary system – the British Treasury for Hawtrey, the US Treasury for White and the Fed and the IMF in the case of Triffin – those economists influenced the course of monetary theory and history. They both wrote on the non-automatic and asymmetric nature of the balance of payments adjustment mechanism, and formulated an original critic towards the classical Ricardian gold standard theory. Structured around the rejection of this classical theory, the authors’ analysis pointed out the weaknesses of the international monetary system. Since then, all of their reform proposals were grounded on the strengthening of monetary cooperation under a fixed exchange rates system.