Dans un marché de l'assurance vie en Afrique subsaharienne francophone à la traîne, mais promis à un bel avenir en cas d'émergence de solutions techniques et commerciales endogènes, la thèse propose des outils théoriques et opérationnels adaptés à son développement. Cette démarche s'inscrit en parallèle des actions entreprises par l'autorité de contrôle régionale (la CIMA) pour fournir aux assureurs de la région des outils adaptés. En effet, la CIMA a initié des travaux pour la construction de nouvelles tables réglementaires d'expérience, ce qui a permis de fournir des références fiables et pertinentes pour la mortalité de la population assurée dans la région. Toutefois, certaines problématiques techniques utiles n'ont pas été développées dans ces travaux de construction. La thèse leur accorde alors une attention particulière. Ainsi, d'une part, la thèse permet de fournir des outils pour tenir compte des différences de mortalité entre pays de la région, tout en limitant les risques systématiques liés aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage (dues à la petite taille des échantillons de données par pays). Il apparaît notamment que si la modélisation indépendante de chaque pays n'est pas appropriée, les modèles d'hétérogénéité à facteurs observables, tels que le modèle de Cox ou de Lin et Ying, permettent d'atteindre cet objectif. On précise toutefois ici que ces modèles d'hétérogénéité ne permettent pas de supprimer le risque systématique lié aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage lors de l'estimation du modèle, ils engendrent seulement une réduction de ce risque en contrepartie d'une augmentation du risque systématique lié au choix du modèle. D'autre part, la thèse permet également de fournir des outils pour modéliser la mortalité d'expérience future dans la région. En absence de données sur les tendances passées de la mortalité d'expérience, ni le modèle classique de Lee-Carter ni ses extensions ne sont applicables. Une solution basée sur un ajustement paramétrique, une hypothèse sur la forme de l'évolution du niveau de mortalité (évolution linaire ou exponentielle) et un avis d'expert sur l'espérance de vie générationnelle à un âge donné est alors proposée (ces travaux s'appuient sur le modèle de Bongaarts). Ensuite, dans un second temps, en supposant disposer de données sur les tendances passées (ce qui pour mémoire n'est pas le cas à ce stade dans la région, mais devrait l'être dans les prochaines années), la thèse propose une modélisation de la mortalité future à partir d'une référence de mortalité externe et une analyse des risques systématiques associés (risques liés aux fluctuations d'échantillonnage et au choix de la référence de mortalité) / In a market of life insurance in sub-Saharan Francophone behind, but with a bright future in the event of emergence of endogenous technical and commercial solutions, the thesis provides theoretical and operational tools adapted to its development. This approach is in parallel with actions taken by the supervisory authority regional (CIMA) to provide insurance tools in the region. Indeed, CIMA has initiated work to construct new tables regulatory experience, which has provided reliable and relevant references for mortality of the insured population in the region. However, some useful technical issues were not developed in such construction. The thesis then give them special attention. Thus, on the one hand, the theory can provide tools to account for differences in mortality between countries in the region, while limiting the risks associated with systematic sampling fluctuations (due to small sample sizes data countries). Particular, it appears that if the model independent of each country is not appropriate, models of heterogeneity with observable factors, such as the Cox or Lin and Ying model, can achieve this goal. However, it says here that these models of heterogeneity does not eliminate the systematic risk due to sampling fluctuations when estimating the model, they generate only a reduction of this risk in exchange for an increase in systematic risk associated the choice of model. On the other hand, the thesis can also provide tools to model future mortality experience in the region. In the absence of data on past trends in mortality experience, nor the classical Lee-Carter or its extensions are applicable. A solution based on a parametric adjustment, an assumption about the form of changes in the level of mortality (exponential or linear trend) and an expert opinion on the generational life expectancy at a given age is then proposed (this work based on the model of Bongaarts). Then in a second time, assuming availability of data on past trends (which for the record is not the case at this stage in the region, but should be in the coming years), the thesis proposes a model of future mortality from an external reference mortality and analyzes associated systematic risk (risk of sampling fluctuations and on the choice of the reference of mortality)

L'analyse des risques est devenu un enjeu majeur dans notre société. Quels que soient les champs d'application dans lesquels une situation à risque peut survenir, les mathématiques et plus particulièrement les statistiques et les probabilités se révèlent être des outils essentiels. L'objet principal de cette thèse est de développer des indicateurs de risque pertinents et d'étudier les propriétés extrémales de processus intervenant dans deux domaines d'applications : en risque alimentaire et en assurance. La théorie du risque se situe entre l'analyse des valeurs extrêmes et la théorie des variables aléatoires à variations régulières ou à queues lourdes. Dans le premier chapitre, on définit les éléments clefs de la théorie du risque ainsi que la notion de variation régulière et on introduit différents modèles liés au risque alimentaire qui seront étudiés dans les chapitres 2 et 3. Le chapitre 2 présente les travaux effectués avec Olivier Wintenberger. Pour des classes de processus stochastiques, sous des hypothèses de variations régulières, on développe une méthode qui permet d'obtenir des équivalents asymptotiques en horizon fini d'indicateurs de risque en assurance et en risque alimentaire tels que la probabilité de ruine, le "temps passé au dessus d'un seuil" ou encore la "sévérité de la ruine". Le chapitre 3 se concentre sur des modèles en risque alimentaire. Précisément, on étudie les propriétés extrémales de différentes généralisations d'un processus d'exposition à un contaminant nommé KDEM pour Kinetic Dietary Exposure Model proposé par Patrice Bertail et ses co-auteurs en 2008. Sous des hypothèses de variations régulières, on propose des équivalents asymptotiques du comportement de queue et de l'indice extrémal du processus d'exposition. Enfin, le chapitre 4 passe en revue différentes techniques statistiques particulièrement adaptées à l'étude du comportement extrémal de certains processus de Markov. Grâce à des propriétés de régénérations, il est possible de découper le chemin des observations en blocs indépendants et identiquement distribués et de n'étudier ainsi que le processus sur un bloc. Ces techniques s'appliquent même si la chaîne de Markov n'est pas atomique. On se concentre ici sur l'estimation de l'indice de queue et de l'indice extrémal. On illustre la performance de ces techniques en les appliquant sur deux modèles - en assurance et en finance - dont on connaît les résultats théoriques / Risk analyses play a leading role within fields such as dietary risk, hydrology, nuclear security, finance and insurance and is more and more present in theapplications of various probability tools and statistical methods. We see a significant impact on the scientific literature and on public institutions in the past years. Risk theory, which is really close to extreme value analysis, typically deals with the occurrences of rare events which are functions of heavy-tailed random variables, for example, sums or products of regularly varying random variables. The purpose of this thesis is the following : to develop revelant risk indicators and to study the extremal properties of stochastic processes used in dietary risk assessment and in insurance. In Chapter 1, we present the main tools used in risk theory and the notion of regular variation and introduce different models involved in dietary risk assessment, which will be specifically studied in Chapters 2 and 3. Chapter 2 presents a joint work with Olivier Wintenberger. For a particular class of stochastic processes, under the assumption of regular variation, we propose a method that gives way to asymptotic equivalents on a finite-time horizon of risk indicators such as the ruin probability, the Expected Time over a Threshold or the Expected Severity of the ruin. Chapter 3 focuses on dietary risk models. To be precise, we study the extremal properties of an extension of a model called KDEM for Kinetic Dietary Exposure Model introduced by Patrice Bertail and his co-authors in 2008. Under the assumption of regular variation, we provide asymptotic equivalents for the tail behavior and the extremal index of the exposure process. In Chapter 4, we review different statistical tools specifically tailored for the study of the extremal behavior of Markov processes. Thanks to regeneration properties, we can split the path of observations into blocks which are independent and identically distributed. This technic still works even if the Markov chain is not atomic. We focus here on the estimation of the tail index and the extremal index. We illustrate the performance of these technics applying them on two models in insurance and finance for which we know the theoritical results.

In last decade passed investment in the Czech republic discontinuous innovation. The expanse of investors fund is adherent to voucher privatization, which they realized in 1992 {--} 1994. At the beginnig of new millenium in the Czech republic begin penetrated foreign investments company. The faulted year for collective investing was in 2004, when Czech republic enter in Europion Union. The market of life insurance in last years noted big boom. Since 1996 the market of life insurance trebled. In my graduation theses I compare two products {--} investment life insurance and open muttual funds. The investment life insurance is Flexi 2009 from Pojišťovna České spořitelny, a.s. and open muttual funds is Evropslá penze Plus/Baby from Conseq Management Investment, a.s. The similar products are in the czech market many, but is not possible to characterise and compare all. Investment life instance is more difficult product than open muttual funds. Especially is adress those, who has commitment to third persons, for example familly or long loan. Open muttual funds is a form of savings, which offer interesting assesment investment instruments. I can´t say, that one product is better than second. For me both muttualy added. From existencial reasons is more necessary life insurance in result cover human risks of clients and their familly. I would recommend clients, who want conclude investment life insurance or enter in world of investing in the form of open muttual funds to not restrict to selection only one insurance or investment company. In time of charge wars are prices very different in almost the same products. Client should have a comparison ond offers selected products from more financial institucions or financial advisors, who have almost all company under {\clqq}one roof`` and they can select. They should know, what is for their clients important, what not and mainly why.

This thesis covers stochastic claims reserving in non-life insurance based on individual claims developments. Summarized theoretical methods are applied on data from Czech Insurers' Bureau for educational purposes. The problem of estimation is divided into four parts: oc- curence process generating claims, delay of notification, times between events and payments. Each part is estimated separately based on maximum likelihood theory and final estimates allow us to obtain an estimate of future liabilities distribution. The results are very promis- ing and we believe this method is worth of a further research. Contribution of this work is more rigorous theoretical part and application on data from the Czech market with some new ideas in practical part and simulation. 1

台灣保險業具有良好的服務品質，但台灣保險市場漸趨飽和、競爭激烈，受限於國內市場規模的限制，有必要拓展海外市場，以增加保險業成長機會及獲利空間。企業面對本國市場所造成的威脅，必須朝國際化經營方向，這都已是當今企業不得不面對的挑戰和趨勢。為追求更大幅度的成長，與利潤極大化的目標，積極地將其經營版圖延伸至海外其他國家，採取國際化策略亦是重要的選擇之一。 本研究以富邦人壽作為個案研究對象，經由企業內部和外部環境分析，探討個案公司面臨的機會與挑戰，針對個案公司之國際化策略提出建議。富邦人壽於2015年以合資方式進入韓國市場，與韓國現代汽車集團合作，取得現代汽車集團合作子公司現代人壽48.62%持股。富邦人壽為台灣保險業者中首次進入韓國市場之壽險公司，在較不熟悉之韓國市場，找到值得信賴的長期合作夥伴，不僅可學習韓國市場經營知識、分散營運成本與風險、並發揮合作夥伴之優勢。 本研究先由PEST分析探討個案公司所面臨之外部總體環境，逐一檢視總體環境中的政治、經濟、社會與科技等四項因素與產業環境，藉以找出未來發展時可能存在的機會與威脅等對於個案公司可能之影響。另於企業內部環境分析以獲得個案公司之優勢與劣勢，再加上前述所提及之外部環境的機會與挑戰，進行TOWS分析，期能推導出擴大優勢與機會之策略，抑或擬訂解決劣勢與威脅策略，據以降低內部劣勢及避開環境威脅，探討個案公司進入韓國市場國際化策略之研究，最後彙整出結論及建議，以提供給個案業者做為未來經營管理的參考方針。 / Although Taiwan's insurance industry is known for their good service quality, Taiwan’s insurance market is gradually becoming saturated and highly competitive. Due to the restriction of the size of the domestic market, it is necessary to expand overseas so as to increase the growth opportunities and profits for the insurance industry. Enterprises facing the threat posed by the domestic market must move in the direction of internationalization. These are the challenges and trends that the enterprises have to face today. It is also important to pursue more substantial growth and achieve the goal of maximizing profits by actively extending its business territory to other countries overseas and adopting an international strategy. In this study, I will analyze the internal and external environment of Fubon Life Insurance Co., Ltd. In order to make recommendations for internationalization, I will also explore its opportunities and challenges. Fubon Life entered the Korean market through joint ventures in 2015 and has partnered with Korea Hyundai Motor Group to acquire a 48.62% stake in Hyundai Life Insurance, a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Group. Fubon Life is the first life insurance company among Taiwanese insurers to enter the Korean market. Finding trustworthy long-term partners in the less familiar Korean market can help by gaining knowledge of Korean market operation, diversify operating costs and risks, and play in part of the advantages in cooperating with partners. In this study, I will first analyze utilizing PEST analysis, exploring the overall external environment faced by individual companies and examining the four factors such as politics, economy, society and technology and industry environment in the overall environment one by one. Based on this analysis, I will find out the opportunities and threats that may exist in the future development. Another analysis that I have explored would be the company's internal environment. The purpose of this analysis is to distinguish the advantages and disadvantages of the company, throughout the analysis TOWS will be utilized putting forward SO, ST, WO, WT strategy. In order to reduce internal disadvantages and avoid environmental threats, this paper explores the case study of the internationalization strategy of case company entering the Korean market. This paper then ends with the conclusion and suggestions to be used as a reference guideline for the business owner’s future business management.

Title: Traditional and modern approaches to pricing in nonlife insurance Abstract: This thesis deals with the theory and implementation of generalized linear models in the area of pricing of non-life insurance and subsequent optimalization of rates. Using the generalized linear models it is possible to estimate expected value and variance of compound distribution of total claims made according to insurance policy during definite time period. The next step is to build an optimalization model and describe several methods how to determine rates that lead to optimal distribution of safety margins within insurance policies in particular risk groups. Represented approaches how to calculate insurance premiums are numerically illustrated on simulated data in concluding parts of the thesis.

The thesis deals with complex questions of life insurance primarily on the Czech insurance market. At the beginning of the work, life insurance is described from a theoretical point of view and its main characteristics and mechanisms are outlined. In the next step, the main topics, which have the most important place in life insurance, are analysed. It is comparison of the insurance in Europe. Then, it is current use of life insurance mainly for covering of the short-term income in case of health problems. It also deals with the opinion of young people on insurance and with approach of ordinary people to the health form connected with a new contract. For the savings, there are capital and investment life insurance mentioned. The investment life insurance is the very important part because of the problems, which it has created in the last 15 years. The thesis also speaks about the possibilities of insurance for athletes. Finally, a small questionnaire had been completed by people on the street. Own contribution of the thesis is to demonstrate problematic parts of life insurance for the clients and explanation why it is so.

The thesis focuses on the Risk Life Insurance of the Czech insurance market offering coverage just for serious health risks without any investment or savings component. Assessment of the Risk Life Insurance offer is based on the findings of the general and special insurance conditions as well as on the gained draft insurance contracts worked on the model setting. The aim of the thesis is the analysis of the main coverage which is in all cases the life insurance along with the offer of the complementary insurance for case of death, disability, cancer or severe diseases. The emphasis is on the scope of risks coverage and the insurance conditions which are considered to be an insurance event.

This thesis presents a comparison of five commercially available products most commonly used by Czech households: a savings account, buildings savings, pension insurance, investment life insurance and mutual funds in terms of taxation. The aim of the work is an overview of the taxation of selected products for the general public in a concise form and show specific impacts on individual cases.

Thesis adresses specificity of sale insurance products. The theoretical part analyses specificity of insurance services and their reflection of marketing insurance company and methods of sale insurance products. The practical part analyses two products according to adjusted arguments, namely - investment life insurance, saving account (as a next possibility of financial source for clients). Both chosen products are model applied to one client. The aim of this analysis is to compare product specificity of sale insurance products. Characteristics of products and their segment specifics are listed in recapitulation as well as segment advantages and disadvantages of individual channels of distribution. Personal contact with client, which can be realized either throught network of insurance brokers or branch insurance company, is accented in connection with the specificity of insurance services and their complexity factors.