Avec un taux d’incidence cumulée de 56 cas pour 100 000 habitants, la Guadeloupe est la deuxième région de France la plus touchée par le VIH. La plupart des publications sur le VIH/Sida en Guadeloupe sont essentiellement descriptives, issues de rapports d’activité. La base hospitalière, alimentant la Base de données Hospitalière française sur l’infection à VIH, n’a été que très peu exploitée pour la recherche. L’objectif de ce travail est d’évaluer les aspects fondamentaux de la prise en charge de l’infection VIH. Ainsi le dépistage tardif, le retard à la prise en charge spécialisée, l’interruption du suivi, les infections opportunistes et les décès sont étudiés ainsi que leurs facteurs prédictifs.Dans ce travail articulé autour de six publications, nous avons mis en évidence les points suivants : tout d’abord, le diagnostic très tardif (CD4<200/mm3) concernait 40,12 % des adultes infectés par le VIH suivis en Guadeloupe. Comparé à la France métropolitaine, ce taux est encore très élevé et souligne l’importance de poursuivre les efforts de dépistage. Pour pouvoir bénéficier d’une prise en charge précoce, le patient doit être dirigé dans un centre de traitement de l’infection par le VIH sans tarder. Or, le retard dans cette prise en charge spécialisée touchait 36 % des patients. L’analyse des éléments associés à ce retard a permis d’en identifier les facteurs de risque.Pour optimiser les résultats thérapeutiques, les patients nécessitent un suivi régulier. Ainsi, le système de santé devrait avoir comme objectif, entre autres, la rétention des patients dans le circuit de soins. Or, plus de 22 % des patients de cette cohorte étaient perdus de vue et jamais revus. Les patients plus jeunes, ceux au stade B de la classification CDC et ceux non traités par TTARV étaient plus à risque d’interruption de suivi, dès la première année suivant le diagnostic de l’infection VIH.Bien que la proportion des patients suivis sous ARV soit proche de 100 %, il en existe toujours développant un Sida. La comparaison avec la Guyane et la France métropolitaine montre que les trois premières affections classantes en Guadeloupe étaient la candidose oesophagienne, le syndrome de cachexie liée au VIH et la pneumocystose. Il existait des différences notables avec la métropole, mais aussi avec la Guyane. Ce taux élevé de syndrome de cachexie liée au VIH pose question. Derrière ce diagnostic, pourraient se cacher d’autres maladies opportunistes non diagnostiquées, mais également des différences de codage. Le recul de la mortalité avec le temps a entraîné une modification qualitative des causes de décès. Celles rapportées dans la littérature étaient les mêmes que celles observées dans notre étude. Contrairement à la métropole où le cancer représentait la première cause de mortalité, en Guadeloupe, les infections liées au Sida constituaient la première cause de décès.Ce travail de thèse s’est donc efforcé de dégager, pour l’une des régions de France les plus affectées par le VIH, quelques grands indicateurs à partir de la Base Hospitalière FHDH. Cette base ne comportait pas toujours toutes les informations souhaitées, mais le nombre substantiel d’observations donnait une puissance importante aux variables étudiées. Ces résultats, bien que confirmant souvent les connaissances empiriques des cliniciens, aura pu aider à mieux appréhender l’épidémie du VIH en Guadeloupe. / With an accumulated incidence rate of 56 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, Guadeloupe is the second French region most affected by HIV. Most of the publications on HIV/AIDS were essentially descriptive, stemming from annual reports. The Guadeloupean Hospital Database on HIV was scarcely exploited for research. The objective of this work was to estimate the fundamental aspects of HIV/AIDS in Guadeloupe. So late presentation for care, delay between HIV diagnosis and first specialised consultation, follow-up interruption, incidence of depression, opportunistic infections and deaths were studied as well as their predictive factors. We were able to highlight the following points: first, the very late HIV diagnosis (CD4< 200 / mm3) concerned 40, 12 % of HIV- infected adults followed in Guadeloupe. 36 % of patients had delays between HIV diagnosis and first specialised consultation. However, more than 22 % of patients were permanently lost to follow-up and never seen again. The first three classifying affections were oesophageal candidiasis, HIV-wasting syndrome and pneumocystosis. The causes of deaths reported in the literature were similar to those observed in our study. AIDS-related infections were the first cause of deaths.This thesis work thus tried to generate, in one of the most HIV-affected French regions, some indicators from the French Hospital Database on HIV. This database often did not contain all the desired informations, but the important number of observations allowed to have high power for the studied variables. These results, although often confirming the clinicians' empirical knowledge, may help understand some aspects of the HIV epidemic in Guadeloupe.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The current view is of magnifying of operations of credit destined to physical persons. This growing justifies by the contract of financings and loans with larger terms of paying, increasing of income and job. Being thus, in the same way as if it expands the search for credit in the financial institutions, it occurs the increasing of the index of insolvency of these operations. With this, it appears the necessity of an efficient management and control of risk making that these institutions try to perfect the quantitative techniques used in its process of analyze of concession of credit and administration of risk. Thus, the objective of this research was to propose a model of risk of credit for to esteem the probability of insolvency in the segment of physical persons in a Credit Cooperative, located in Pelotas/RS. It was identified too the profile of the cooperated from information registered in cadastre that themselves relate to the institution, trying by means of them to verify what are the variables able to explain the suggested model of risk. It was developed a study of case, based on the period of December, 2010 and it was used for analyzing data the multivaried statistic technique of multiple logistic regression. It was obtained a sample of 400 cooperated and it was tested 29 co-varied of the respective bank of data of the Unicred Automation System (UAS). In this study, the variable dependent corresponds to the situation or no of the insolvency of the cooperated in the operations of credit. The results gotten from the adjusted model indicate that only two predatory variables were statistically significant (p<0,05) for esteeming the probability of the insolvency , that are: profession dentist (OR = 7,147) and if it has the monthly income over 10 thousand until 20 thousand Reals (OR = 4,339). / O panorama atual é de ampliação das operações de crédito destinadas às pessoas físicas. Este crescimento justifica-se pela contratação de financiamentos e empréstimos com maiores prazos de pagamentos, aumento da renda e de emprego. Sendo assim, da mesma forma como se expande a procura pelo crédito nas instituições financeiras, ocorre o aumento dos índices de inadimplência destas operações. Com isso, surge a necessidade de um eficaz gerenciamento e controle do risco, fazendo com que estas instituições busquem aperfeiçoar as técnicas quantitativas utilizadas em seu processo de análise de concessão de crédito e administração do risco. Assim, o objetivo desta investigação foi propor um modelo de risco de inadimplência para estimar se um cooperado pessoa física será inadimplente ou não em uma operação de crédito junto a uma Cooperativa de Crédito Mútuo, situada em Pelotas/RS. Também, identificou-se o perfil do cooperado, a partir das informações cadastrais que os mesmos informam à instituição, buscando, por meio dessas, verificar quais as variáveis capazes de explicar o modelo de risco sugerido. Desenvolveu-se um estudo de caso, tendo como base o período de dezembro de 2010 e, utilizou-se para análise dos dados a técnica estatística multivariada de regressão logística múltipla. Obteve-se uma amostra de 400 cooperados e foram testadas 29 covariáveis do respectivo banco de dados do Sistema de Automação Unicred (SAU). Neste estudo, a variável dependente corresponde à situação ou não da inadimplência dos cooperados nas operações de crédito. Os resultados obtidos no modelo ajustado indicam que somente duas variáveis preditoras foram estatisticamente significativas (p<0,05) para estimar a probabilidade da inadimplência, que são: profissão dentista (OR = 7,147) e se possui a renda mensal acima de 10 mil até 20 mil reais (OR = 4,339).

The main objective of our research was to develop a new bankruptcy prediction model for the Czech economy. For that purpose we used the logistic regression and 150,000 financial statements collected for the 2002-2016 period. We defined 41 explanatory variables (25 financial ratios and 16 dummy variables) and used Bayesian model averaging to select the best set of explanatory variables. The resulting model has been estimated for three prediction horizons: one, two, and three years before bankruptcy, so that we could assess the changes in the importance of explanatory variables and models' prediction accuracy. To deal with high skew in our dataset due to small number of bankrupt firms, we applied over- and under- sampling methods on the train sample (80% of data). These methods proved to enhance our classifier's accuracy for all specifications and periods. The accuracy of our models has been evaluated by Receiver operating characteristics curves, Sensitivity-Specificity curves, and Precision-Recall curves. In comparison with models examined on similar data, our model performed very well. In addition, we have selected the most powerful predictors for short- and long-term horizons, which is potentially of high relevance for practice. JEL Classification C11, C51, C53, G33, M21 Keywords Bankruptcy...

Magister Scientiae - MSc / This study employs the Human Capital Theory (HCT), which postulates that the education of women is positively related to the likelihood of their labour force participation, in order to investigate quarterly dynamics in the labour force. This approach is an advancement of knowledge gained from previous studies such as Serumanga-Zake and Kotze (2004) and Ntuli (2004) who investigated the annual dynamics in FLFP. Investigating quarterly dynamics in FLFP is prudent as the market economy is very dynamic particularly at a point when the world economy is experiencing recession. Data for the study are extracted from the 2008 Quarterly Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa. Logistic regression analysis modeling was employed with the dependent variable, FLFP, as a binary outcome. Other variables controlled in the analysis are gender, population group, age, marital status, education status, sector, main industry, main occupation and province. The results show that there is association between education status and FLFP status. Findings from this research are expected to contribute to the knowledge about trends in FLFP in South Africa and aid in planning of interventions aimed at improving the status of women as one of the critical steps in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. / South Africa

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / This study assesses the present level of household water access and the willingness to pay in South Africa. Although the general literature informs that progress has been made in positing South Africa above the levels found in most African countries, there are some marked inequalities among the population groups and across the provinces, with some performing well and others poorly in this regard. The study looks at the extent to which households differ in terms of water access and willingness to pay according to the province of residence. The study focuses on household heads; male and female, through different social and demographic attributes, by taking account of variables such as age, education attainment, geographic areas, and population group to name but a few. The data used in this study comes from the 2007 General Household Survey (GHS) conducted by Statistics South Africa. The scope is national and employs cross tabulation and logistic regression to establish relationships and the likelihood of living in a household with access to safe drinking water in South Africa. Results presented in this study suggest that the difference is determined by socio- demographic characteristics of each household such as age, gender, population group, level of education, employment status income, dwelling unit, dwelling ownership, living quarters, household size and income. It throws more light as to what needs to be taken into account when considering demand and supply of and priorities for water intervention from the household perspective. / South Africa

Masters of Science / South Africa’s female labour supply increased substantially over almost the past two decades. Female labour force participation is an imperative indication of the extent to which females participate in the economic activities of any country. Female Labour Force Participation (FLFP) rates have gained interest among researchers and development specialists worldwide due to their significant contribution in measuring progress related to gender disparities across various economic settings. Amsden (1980) further posits that there has been an increase in women contribution to modern sector activities. Despite the advances in female educational attainment and the expansion of the market economy, FLFP rates are still low in comparison with the rates of their male counterparts. This study employs the Human Capital Theory (HCT), which postulates that the education of women is positively related to the likelihood of their labour force participation, in order to investigate quarterly dynamics in the labour force. This approach is an advancement of knowledge gained from previous studies such as Serumanga-Zake and Kotze (2004) and Ntuli (2004) who investigated the annual dynamics in FLFP. Investigating quarterly dynamics in FLFP is prudent as the market economy is very dynamic particularly at a point when the world economy is experiencing recession. Data for the study are extracted from the 2008 Quarterly Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa. Logistic regression analysis modeling was employed with the dependent variable, FLFP, as a binary outcome. Other variables controlled in the analysis are gender, population group, age, marital status, education status, sector, main industry, main occupation and province. The results show that there is association between education status and FLFP status. Findings from this research are expected to contribute to the knowledge about trends in FLFP in South Africa and aid in planning of interventions aimed at improving the status of women as one of the critical steps in achieving the Millennium Development Goals.

This diploma thesis deals with the employability of graduates of the University of Economics, Prague (UE) and their quality assessment of acquired higher education based on REFLEX 2013 survey. The first part of this thesis is focused on theoretical concepts and statistical methods that are subsequently used in analytical part. The analytical part contains analysis of UE graduates employability and the quality assessment of acquired higher education. The aim of this diploma thesis is to provide answers on whether there is a relationship between studied faculty and job classification or which factors affect the monthly wage level using the multidimensional statistical methods. The thesis also deals with the graduates evaluation of acquired knowledge applicability and practical usability in future career.

Cette recherche a pour objectif principal d’explorer une nouvelle forme d’interaction dynamique entre concurrents encastrés, désormais, dans des structures complexes que sont les réseaux. Il s’agit de la coopétition réticulaire globale qui renvoie à la simultanéité de la coopération et de la compétition entre des réseaux d’acteurs globaux issus de secteurs d’activité distincts. La recherche actuelle sur la coopétition s’est largement focalisée sur l’aspect organisationnel et dyadique, voire sectoriel de la relation. En revanche, le niveau réticulaire est rarement exploré, ce qui a suscité cette recherche qui l’intègre dans une perspective globale. En effet, s’appuyant sur une étude longitudinale multisectorielle réalisée sur des données de panel collectées à partir de sources variées, une régression non-linéaire à l’aide d’un modèle logistique multivarié ordonné a été menée, dans un premier temps pour tester les hypothèses relatives aux déterminants et une régression de Poisson dans un second temps afin de mesurer l’effet des formes de la coopétition réticulaire sur l’innovation. Les principaux résultats mettent en évidence des déterminants organisationnels, dyadiques, sectoriels et réticulaires qui favorisent l’émergence de la coopétition réticulaire sous quatre formes, à savoir la coopétition intra-réseau, la coopétition inter-réseaux, la coopétition globale et la coopétition de réseaux. De plus, les résultats montrent que ces formes identifiées influence à des degrés différents, l’innovation des firmes membres. Cette recherche permet d’attirer l’attention de la communauté scientifique à considérer le niveau réticulaire dans l’analyse des relations inter-firmes, d’une part, et d’aider les managers à faire face à l’incertitude inhérente à l’environnement global et au rythme accéléré d’innovation. / The main objective of this research is to explore a new form of dynamic interaction between competitors that are embedded in complex structures such as networks. It is about global network coopetition which refers to the simultaneous cooperation and competition between global actors networks belonging to different industries. Current research on coopetition has largely focused on the organizational, dyadic or industrial aspect. However, the reticular level is scarcely explored which aroused the interest of this research idea that includes it with a global perspective. Indeed, based on a longitudinal multi-sectorial study with panel data collected from various sources, a non-linear regression through ordered multivariate logistic model was first used to test hypotheses on network coopetition drivers. Then, a Poisson regression was used to measure the effect of network coopetition forms on innovation. The main results highlight organizational, dyadic, industrial and reticular drivers that lead to the emergence of reticular coopetition under four forms, namely, intra-network coopetition, inter-network coopetition, global coopetition and networks coopetition. Furthermore, results show that these forms influence differently firms’ innovation. On one hand, this research allows drawing scientific community attention to consider the reticular level in inter-firm relationships analysis. On the other hand, it helps managers to deal with the global environment uncertainty and its innovation accelerated pace.

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in South Africa. The first part of the study consisted of the compilation of a full history of RVF in South Africa. This was done by compiling all references to outbreaks of the disease in South Africa from all available literature, annual reports, disease reports and animal disease databases. The geographic location and temporal occurrence of each outbreak was recorded as accurately as allowed by the available records. The result was a better and more complete picture than has hitherto been available of the spatial and temporal distribution of RVF for the period 1950, when the disease was first recognised in South Africa, to 2010. Several smaller outbreaks not mentioned in the literature were found. It emerged that large outbreaks occur in the Free State Province, Eastern Cape Province and Northern Cape Province with long periods of absence and smaller outbreaks occur in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng at more frequent intervals.The second part of the study used the data collected during the first part of the study to determine which climatic and other environmental factors could have played a role in the occurrence of RVF in South Africa. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate associations between the various potential risk factors and the occurrence of Rift Valley fever.The study found that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence on rainfall in South Africa has an effect on the occurrence of RVF in South Africa which is opposite to the effect that has been described for Kenya. A positive Southern Oscillation Index (La Niña) increases the likelihood of a RVF outbreak in South Africa.The study also found that very high rainfall during the summer months (December to February) is an important risk factor for the occurrence of RVF and it confirmed the increased risk of an outbreak where pans and wetlands are present as reported in several articles and disease reports on past outbreaks. Several other factors, such as minimum and maximum temperature were also found to have a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of Rift Valley fever. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Production Animal Studies / unrestricted

Introduction – Animal studies suggested that NFKB1, SOCS3 and IKBKB genes could be involved in the association between overnutrition and obesity. This study aims to investigate interactions involving these genes and nutrition affecting obesity-related phenotypes. Methods – We used multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and penalized logistic regression (PLR) to better detect gene/environment interactions in data from the Toronto Nutrigenomics and Health Study (n=1639) using dichotomized body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as obesity-related phenotypes. Exposure variables included genotypes on 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms, dietary factors and ethnicity. Results – MDR identified interactions between SOCS3 rs6501199 and rs4969172, and IKBKB rs3747811 affecting BMI in whites; SOCS3 rs6501199 and NFKB1 rs1609798 affecting WC in whites; and SOCS3 rs4436839 and IKBKB rs3747811 affecting WC in South Asians. PLR found a main effect of SOCS3 rs12944581 on BMI among South Asians. Conclusion – MDR and PLR gave different results, but support some results from previous studies.