The purpose of this dissertation is to develop and evaluate techniques for improvement of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin in the U.S. Southwest. Three techniques are investigated. The first technique is an investigation of the effects of the El Ni??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and the resulting streamflow at a monthly time scale, using data from 1952 to 1999 (WY). It was seen that the effects of ENSO on temperature and precipitation were confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season, and that the effect of these modulations of temperature and precipitation by ENSO can be seen in the magnitude and time variation of SWE and streamflow. The second part is a comparison of the use for snowmelt-runoff modeling of the newly available snowcover product based on imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with the long-time standard snowcover product from the National Hydrological Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). This comparison is made using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in two watersheds located inside the URG basin. This comparison is important because the MODIS snowcover product could greatly improve the availability of snowcover information because of its high spatial (500m) and temporal (daily) resolutions and extensive (global) coverage. Based on the results of this comparison, the MODIS snowcover product gives comparable snowcover information compared to that from NOHRSC. The final part is an investigation of streamflow forecasting using mass-balance models. Two watersheds used in the comparison of MODIS and NOHRSC snowcover products were again used. The parameters of the mass-balance models are obtained in two different ways and streamflow forecasts are made on January 1st, February 1st, March 1st and April 1st. The first means of parameter estimation is to use the parameter values from 1990 to 2001 SRM streamflow simulations and the second means is by optimization. The results of this investigation show that mass-balance models show potential to improve the long-term streamflow forecasts in snowmelt-dominated watersheds if dependable precipitation forecasts can be provided.

This dissertation explores the hydrologic controls on salinity within mangroves and lagoons at sites in Florida and Mexico. The main objective of this research is to better understand hydrologic controls on mangrove ecosystem structure and develop ideas that will be useful to land managers attempting to regulate and conserve these critical habitats. This study was conducted at sites in Ft. Pierce, FL and Costalegre on the central Pacific coast of Mexico. We examined controls on water levels and salinity in a mangrove on a carbonate barrier island along the Indian River Lagoon, east-central Florida. Spectral analysis of water levels showed that mangrove groundwater levels are not tidally influenced. Salinities vary spatially, with values of ~10 in upland environments to ~75 psu in irregularly-flushed mangroves. Water chemistry indicates that water salinities are largely controlled by enrichment due to evapotranspiration. An electrical resistivity survey showed that the freshwater lens is restricted to uplands and that hypersaline waters extend deeply below the mangrove. These results indicate that evapotranspiration lowers water levels in the mangrove, which causes Indian River Lagoon water to flow into the mangrove where it evapoconcentrates and descends, forming a thick layer of high-salinity water below the mangrove. Spatial variability of terrain conductivity in the Ft. Pierce mangrove varied under two hydrologic management regimes, breached rotational impoundment management and rotational impoundment management. The difference in coefficient of variation (CV) between the breached RIM and RIM data was calculated to examine spatial variability in both the shallow and deep layers. A null-hypothesis model was employed to examine the statistical significance of the CV results. The average water levels were -0.06 m amsl and 0.49 m amsl during the breached-RIM and RIM regimes, respectively. The average shallow (EM31) layer terrain conductivity shifted slightly from 1868 mS m -1 to 1825 mS m-1 after the alteration in management regime, yet the standard deviation of these averages decrease from 656 mS m-1 to 216 mS m-1. The average deep (EM34) layer terrain conductivities were 328 mS m-1 and 255 mS m-1 during the breached-RIM and RIM regimes, respectively. The temporal CVs were 0.23 and -0.04 for the shallow and deep layers, respectively. The null-hypothesis model for the shallow layer illustrates that the difference in spatial structure is statistically significant. The deep layer CV was not statistically significant. These results indicate that the transition from breached RIM to RIM resulted in changes to both the physical and chemical hydrologic character of the impoundment, especially in the shallow layer. The second study sites were three mangrove communities along the central Pacific Mexican coast. Salinities varied by water type, with values of ~9 in La Manzanilla, ~17 in La Vena, ~33 in Barra de Navidad, ~0.4 in the fresh waters, and ~34 in the seawater. Sodium and Chloride concentrations and isotopic signatures, as well as salinity, were used as tracers in mass-balance mixing models to quantify estimates of relative fresh-water and seawater contributions to each site. La Manzanilla, a basin mangrove, had mean fresh-water contribution estimates of 63-84%. La Vena, a riverine mangrove, had fresh-water estimates of 39-51%. Barra de Navidad, a fringe mangrove, had low fresh-water contributions of 0-5%. These results illustrates that the role groundwater plays in mangrove hydrodynamics is dependent on the site hydrogeomorphology.

Ce mémoire a comme objectif de présenter une revue de la littérature et une analyse comparative des différents modèles existants pour le calcul de la capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore. Ce document a aussi pour but d’évaluer les différentes options pour l’utilisation de ce genre d’outil au Québec, ainsi que d’amorcer une réflexion sur les applications possibles de ce concept au niveau local, en lien avec l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. L’analyse comparative des modèles théoriques, combinée à la réflexion d’acteurs clés impliqués actuellement dans un processus qui consiste à tester leur utilisation dans les Laurentides au Québec, a permis de mettre en relief l’importance de calibrer les modèles régionalement. De plus, certains avantages semblent résider dans l’utilisation d’un modèle de nature empirique afin d’effectuer les prédictions sur les apports naturels et totaux en phosphore pour les lacs de cette région. Par contre, l’utilisation d’une approche de type « bilan de masse », s’avère tout de même indispensable afin de relativiser l’importance des différents apports anthropiques en phosphore du bassin versant. Dans l’avenir, l’utilisation de tels modèles permettra possiblement de justifier certaines mesures restrictives au développement des bassins versants, qui pourront s’insérer parmi les outils d’urbanisme actuels. Ce sont principalement les municipalités qui détiennent les pouvoirs nécessaires afin d’intégrer les prescriptions découlant de ce genre d’analyse à l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. Plusieurs outils d’urbanisme, tels que les plans d’aménagement d’ensemble (PAE) ou bien les règlements de zonage et de lotissement, semblent donner assez de latitude afin de permettre aux municipalités d’intervenir en ce sens. Toutefois, les modèles de capacité de support ne pourront pas être utilisés afin de calculer un nombre précis d’habitations qu’il est possible de construire dans le bassin versant d’un lac. / This study presents a literature review of current carrying capacity models developed in Ontario and Quebec (Canada) for the estimation of phosphorus (P) loading in lakes. Another objective is to evaluate their applications to land and watershed management practices in Quebec. A comparison of theoretical and empirical models, combined with the observations of keys stakeholders, confirms the importance of calibrating models regionally. The analysis further reveals that empirical models estimate more accurately P concentrations in lakes. However, the use of traditional mass balance approaches is still a necessity for the estimation of different P sources in the watershed. These models can support decision makers and land managers in Quebec in the application of more restrictive measures in lakes where the carrying capacity is currently exceeded. In Quebec, the use of the models and their implementation in the legislation will be a municipal responsibility. Many urbanism tools already allow this kind of intervention (zoning, « outils à caractère discrétionnaire »). But, model use alone will not be sufficient to justify a total interdiction of land development in a watershed or to impose a strict limit to house and cottage development.

Wastewater treatment is traditionally considered a separate part of an industrial activity, hardly connected to the production units themselves. It is nowadays essential to ensure that the quality of water is not degraded and that water that has been polluted is purified to acceptable levels, especially in a country with scarce water resources such as South Africa. Where water quality is concerned, Zero Effluent Discharge (ZED) is the ultimate goal, in order to avoid any releases of contaminants to the water environment. The push towards ZED in South Africa is also promoted further by the South African Government’s plan to reduce freshwater usage and the pollution of water sources due to the water scarcity in a semi-arid South Africa. Future legislation will see a marked increase in the cost of freshwater usage and/or a possible limitation of the quantity of freshwater available. There is a need in the South African Industry for a framework of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in order to provide interested stakeholders, which include not only industry, but also academia, environmental interest groups and members of the public, with a procedure to meet the ZED statutory requirements. This dissertation explores the regulatory requirements and current environmental management practices implemented. A framework of BMPs to successfully attain ZED status in South African industries is developed from the literature study and the researcher’s own experience. The BMP framework embodies practices for one integrated strategy within three dimensions. The three dimensions of the BMP framework were selected to differentiate between BMPs for management (Governance BMPs), the project management team responsible for ZED projects (Project Management BMPs) and the implementation of preventative and operational measures to obtain and sustain ZED compliance for South African industries. The BMP framework was validated against the practices applied by Mittal Steel. The Mittal Steel plant in Vanderbijlpark implemented various projects, reduced the intake of water and eliminated the discharge of effluent and by doing this successfully realised their ZED status. The BMP framework will enable South African industries to develop their own BMPs Manual which should be specific to their operational and environmental requirements. The implementation of these BMPs should be tailored and used accordingly to demonstrate compliance to ZED requirements in South African industries. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Wastewater treatment is traditionally considered a separate part of an industrial activity, hardly connected to the production units themselves. It is nowadays essential to ensure that the quality of water is not degraded and that water that has been polluted is purified to acceptable levels, especially in a country with scarce water resources such as South Africa. Where water quality is concerned, Zero Effluent Discharge (ZED) is the ultimate goal, in order to avoid any releases of contaminants to the water environment. The push towards ZED in South Africa is also promoted further by the South African Government’s plan to reduce freshwater usage and the pollution of water sources due to the water scarcity in a semi-arid South Africa. Future legislation will see a marked increase in the cost of freshwater usage and/or a possible limitation of the quantity of freshwater available. There is a need in the South African Industry for a framework of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in order to provide interested stakeholders, which include not only industry, but also academia, environmental interest groups and members of the public, with a procedure to meet the ZED statutory requirements. This dissertation explores the regulatory requirements and current environmental management practices implemented. A framework of BMPs to successfully attain ZED status in South African industries is developed from the literature study and the researcher’s own experience. The BMP framework embodies practices for one integrated strategy within three dimensions. The three dimensions of the BMP framework were selected to differentiate between BMPs for management (Governance BMPs), the project management team responsible for ZED projects (Project Management BMPs) and the implementation of preventative and operational measures to obtain and sustain ZED compliance for South African industries. The BMP framework was validated against the practices applied by Mittal Steel. The Mittal Steel plant in Vanderbijlpark implemented various projects, reduced the intake of water and eliminated the discharge of effluent and by doing this successfully realised their ZED status. The BMP framework will enable South African industries to develop their own BMPs Manual which should be specific to their operational and environmental requirements. The implementation of these BMPs should be tailored and used accordingly to demonstrate compliance to ZED requirements in South African industries. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

Massive sulfide deposits in the Noranda mining camp, northwestern Québec, are mainly associated with extensive footwall alteration defined by intense chloritization and sericitization. However, Fe-carbonate alteration also occurs in proximity to some deposits. To test the exploration significance of carbonate alteration in the camp, two areas of intense carbonate alteration were examined, around the small Delbridge deposit and near the new Pinkos occurrence in the Cyprus Rhyolite. Between 1969 and 1971, the Delbridge deposit produced 370,000 t of ore grading 9.6% Zn, 0.61% Cu, 110 g/t Ag, and 2.1 g/t Au. Recent drilling at the new Pinkos occurrence intersected 2.64 m of massive to semi-massive sulfides grading 8.1% Zn and 18.2 g/t Ag. Alteration mapping has shown that the distribution of Fe-carbonates can be used to identify vertically extensive zones of hydrothermal upflow at both properties. At Delbridge, intense Fe-carbonate alteration in brecciated rhyolite defines a pipe-like upflow zone that extends vertically for up to 300 m within the stratigraphic footwall of the massive sulfides and 100 m into the hanging wall. The location of known massive sulfide mineralization coincides with the intersection of the alteration pipe and a favorable horizon marked by the occurrence of fine-grained volcaniclastic rocks. At Pinkos, a similar zone of Fe-carbonate alteration occurs in outcrops of coherent rhyolite. Fe-carbonate alteration is most intensely developed along polygonal cooling fractures in massive rhyolite and decreases in intensity towards the centers of the columns. Fe-carbonate stringers and locally abundant matrix carbonate occur in fragmental rocks at the stratigraphic top of the coherent rhyolite flows and are most intense at the location of sulfide-bearing outcrops that mark the known mineralized horizon. Whereas Fe-carbonate alteration defines the central part of the hydrothermal upflow zones at both properties, disseminated pyrite occurs at the margins and is widespread outside the main upflow zones. This may indicate that Fe-carbonate in the main upflow zones formed at the expense of earlier disseminated sulfides. Replacement of pyrite by synvolcanic Fe-carbonate alteration at Delbridge and Pinkos can probably be attributed to a relatively high concentration of dissolved CO2, possibly of magmatic origin, in the main-stage ore-forming fluids.

Coastal waters have high biological productivity and provide goods and services with a high monetary value. Coasts are used by many different stakeholders and are often densely populated. These factors put coastal ecosystems under heavy environmental pressure and place high demands on politicians and coastal managers, who need suitable tools to facilitate decision-making. Geographic information systems and predictive mass balance models are two such tools, and the form of coastal areas (morphometry) is an important component of both tools in coastal management. In this thesis it was shown that the form and function of coastal areas are interrelated in a number of ways. Morphometric parameters can be used to identify coastal areas that are more sensitive to pollution, or that potentially have higher ecological value; and morphometric analysis is an essential part of mass balance modeling. New ways of using morphometry for estimation of benthic production potential were presented and tested. It was shown that there are great differences in benthic production potential among Swedish coastal areas and regions. Different morphometric descriptors of openness were developed and tested; these can be used in habitat mapping or for prediction of sediment bottom types. Significant correlation was found between the morphometric properties of coastal areas, the proportion of accumulation bottom areas and the critical depth. Statistical models for prediction of accumulation bottom areas and critical depth were also obtained using multiple regression. Large differences were found in empirical values of bottom dynamic conditions from two different sources. Algorithms from a well tested mass balance model were adapted for modeling salt in the Baltic Sea. This enabled calculation of water exchange between five basins on a monthly time scale, which can be of use in future modeling studies. The study included morphometric analysis for structuring the model and for calculation of input data.

Submitted by Emanuel Varela Cardoso (emanuel.varela@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-16T16:52:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ADRIANA VALÉRIA ARRUDA GUIMARÃES – TESE (PPGEQ) 2017.pdf: 2201140 bytes, checksum: 097db96ed09bdde84b6831586b738b25 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T16:52:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ADRIANA VALÉRIA ARRUDA GUIMARÃES – TESE (PPGEQ) 2017.pdf: 2201140 bytes, checksum: 097db96ed09bdde84b6831586b738b25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-24 / Capes / O lodo de curtume é classificado como sendo resíduo sólido perigoso - Classe I. Desse modo, compromete o meio ambiente em virtude da presença de cromo (Cr3+), sulfetos (S2-) e elevada matéria orgânica. Nesta pesquisa, o lodo de curtume foi submetido ao processo de estabilização por solidificação, tendo como objetivos determinar a velocidade de decaimento cinético dos contaminantes além de otimizar o processo de estabilização por solidificação do lodo de curtume. O planejamento experimental realizado foi o fatorial ao acaso, com dois fatores e duas repetições, resultando em 18 tratamentos os quais utilizaram como fatores porcentagem de lodo de curtume (5%, 15% e 25%) e tempo de cura (7, 28 e 90 dias). Foi realizada a avaliação do material estabilizado por solidificação com os critérios de integridade/durabilidade e imobilização dos contaminantes. A Análise de Variância possibilitou obter a otimização do processo de tratamento do lodo de curtume, o balanço de massa e a eficiência de retenção dos contaminantes do material estabilizado. Finalmente, foi realizada a cinética dos contaminantes levando em consideração o tempo de cura e a porcentagem. O presente trabalho de tese expõe três importantes contribuições cientificas que o diferencia das demais pesquisas desenvolvidas tratando lodo de curtume. A primeira está voltada à otimização do processo de estabilização por solidificação, no qual foi encontrado o ponto ótimo entre o tempo de cura e a porcentagem de lodo de curtume. A segunda encontra-se relacionado à velocidade de decaimento cinético dos contaminantes. E finalmente, a terceira está relacionada ao balanço de massa e a eficiência do processo de E/S dos contaminantes presentes no lodo de curtume. Como resultado desse estudo verificou-se que, a otimização das respostas foi a maneira de minimizar e/ou maximizar as variáveis respostas do processo de E/S, conseguido com menor tempo de cura e menor porcentagem de lodo. De acordo com a função desejável todos os tratamentos foram aprovados nos ensaios de integridade/durabilidade e imobilização dos contaminantes, fazendo a conversão da Classe I (perigoso) para Classe II (não perigoso). Os parâmetros relacionados à integridade durabilidade obtiveram sua otimização com pontos ótimos distintos. As melhores respostas para os parâmetros ambientais nos extratos lixiviado e solubilizado foram atribuídos aos tratamentos combinados com o menor tempo de cura e a menor porcentagem de lodo de curtume. A pesquisa permitiu concluir que foi possível determinar a cinética dos contaminantes do lodo de curtume quanto à otimização do processo de E/S. Com isso, a redução na velocidade de decaimento cinético dos contaminantes ambientais, nos extratos lixiviado e solubilizado, foi atribuída aos tratamentos combinados com a menor porcentagem de lodo de curtume e tempo de cura variado. O processo de estabilização por solidificação tratando o lodo de curtume foi eficiente, uma vez que promoveu atenuação dos contaminantes convertendo da classe perigosa para não perigosa. / The tannery sludge is classified as a Class I – hazardous solid residue. It compromises the environment due to the presence of chromium (Cr3+), sulfides (S2-) and high amounts of organic matter. In this research, the tanning sludge was subjected to a solidification stabilization process, aiming to determine the kinetic decay rate of the contaminants and to optimize the stabilization process by solidification of the tannery sludge. The experimental design comprised two factors and two replicates, resulting in 18 treatments, which used percentage of tannery sludge (5%, 15% and 25%) and curing time (7, 28 and 90 days) as variables. An evaluation of the material stabilized by solidification was carried out with the criteria of integrity/durability and immobilization of contaminants. The variance analysis allowed us to obtain a process optimization of the tannery sludge treatment, the mass balance and a retention efficiency of the stabilized material contaminants. Finally, the contaminants kinetics were analyzed taking into account the tannering time and percentage. The present work is different from previous ones because it presents three important scientific contributions regarding the tannery sludge treatment. The first one is focused on the optimization of the solidification stabilization process, in which was found an ideal balance between tannering time and percentage. The second is related to the rate of the contaminants kinetic decay. The third one is related to the mass balance and an edition of the S/S process of the contaminants present within the tanning sludge. As a result of the study it was found that, an optimization of the responses to minimize and/or maximize as variables of the S/S process responses, achieved with shorter cure duration and lower sludge percentage. According to a desirable function all the treatments were approved in the integrity/durability tests and immobilization of the contaminants, converting it from a Class I (dangerous) to a Class II (non-hazardous) residue. The parameters related to the durability and integrity obtained their optimization with different optimum points. The best responses to the environmental control in the leached and solubilized extracts were attributed to the combined treatments with the lowest tannering rate and percentage of tannery sludge. The research concluded that it was possible to determine the kinetics of tannery sludge contaminants in the optimization of the S/S process. Thus, a reduction in the kinetic detoxification rate of the environmental contaminants in the leached and solubilized extracts was attributed to treatments combined with a smaller percentage of tannery sludge and varied tannering time. The solidification stabilization process used to treat the tannery sludge was efficient as it promoted the attenuation of contaminants converting it from a hazardous to a non-hazardous residue.

This thesis focused on the modelling of a pulping process. The purpose was to see if an accurate model can be crated based on relatively simple premises and if the errors can be identified or analysed. To realise this, the authors conducted a literature study to identify the current state of the art regarding the chemical pulping process. In addition, flow charts and sample data from a case study were examined. Based on the literature review and case study, model assumptions were derived. The model is divided into sixteen components. Where mixing occurs, lumped conditions are assumed. The model has five validation points, four of which are temperatures and a mass flowrate. These are shown as deviations from the measured values. In conclusions, it was the model could produce stable results over a narrow time frame. More so if the transition period at the start of the simulation is overlooked. Several new model assumptions are presented with the purpose to increase accuracy e.g. account for the components ability to store mass.

Le Bilan de Masse de Surface (BMS, c'est-à-dire les précipitations de neige auxquelles est retranchée l'ablation par sublimation, ruissellement ou érosion) de la calotte polaire Antarctique représente une contribution majeure et encore mal connue à l'évolution actuelle du niveau des mers. Le stockage d'eau douce par accumulation de neige sur la calotte posée est supposé s'intensifier au cours du 21eme siècle, modérant l'élévation du niveau des mers et modifiant la dynamique glaciaire. Les trois-quarts du bilan de masse de surface Antarctique sont concentrés au dessous de 2000 m d'altitude alors que cette zone ne représente que 40% de la surface de la calotte posée. Les précipitations orographiques sont une contribution majeure à l'accumulation dans cette région, il est donc crucial d'estimer précisément ce terme. La modélisation de ce processus est fortement dépendant de la résolution des modèles, car les pentes de la calotte influencent l'intensité des précipitations orographiques. La sublimation et la fonte de la neige sont eux aussi fortement dépendant de l'élévation. Bien qu'ils contribuent actuellement peu au bilan de masse de surface de l'Antarctique, ils sont susceptibles de subir des changements importants au cours des prochains siècles. Les modèles atmosphériques de climat, globaux ou régionaux, ne peuvent pas atteindre une résolution allant au delà de 40 km sur l'Antarctique pour des simulations à l'échelle du siècle du fait de coûts de calcul importants. A ces résolutions, la topographie des zones côtières Antarctique n'est pas correctement représentée. C'est pourquoi nous avons développé le modèle de régionalisation SMHiL (Surface Mass balance High-resolution downscaLing) qui permet d'estimer les composantes du bilan de masse de surface Antarctique à haute résolution (~15 km) à partir de champs atmosphériques de plus grande échelle. Nous calculons l'effet de la topographie fine sur les précipitations orographiques et sur les processus de couche limite menant à la sublimation, la fonte et le regel. SMHiL est validé pour la période actuelle à partir d'un jeu de données inédit constitué de plus de 2700 observations de qualité contrôlée. Cependant, les observations représentatives du BMS de la zone côtière Antarctique y sont sous-représentées. Dans ce contexte, nous montrons que la ligne de balise mise en place par l'observatoire GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA en bordure de calotte constitue une référence pour estimer les performances des modèles. Enfin, nous utilisons SMHiL à l'aval du modèle de circulation générale LMDZ4 pour évaluer les variations de BMS au cours du 21eme et du 22eme siècles. Le BMS à haute résolution est significativement différent de celui de LMDZ4 et est plus proche du BMS observé pour la période actuelle. Les résultats suggèrent que les précédentes estimations d'augmentation du BMS au cours du prochain siècle étaient sous-estimées de près de 30% par LMDZ4. Les changements de BMS à faible élévation résulteront d'une compétition entre l'augmentation d'accumulation de neige et de ruissellement. SMHiL est un outil destiné à être appliqué à l'aval d'autres modèles de climat, globaux ou régionaux, pour une meilleure estimation des variations futures du niveau des mers. / The Antarctic Surface Mass Balance (SMB, i.e. the snow accumulation from which we subtract ablation by sublimation, run-off or erosion) is a major yet badly known contribution to changes in the present-day sea level. Water storage by snow accumulation on the Antarctic continent is expected to increase in the 21st century, which would moderate the rise in sea level and impact the ice dynamic response of the ice sheet. Three-quarters of the Antarctic SMB are concentrated below 2000 m above sea level whereas this area represents only 40% of the grounded ice sheet area. Orographic precipitation is a major contributor to snow accumulation in this region, which is why a better estimation of this term is important. The representation of this process by models depends to a great extent on the resolution of the model, since precipitation amounts depend on the ice sheet slopes. Sublimation and snowmelt also depend on elevation, and although they are presently minor contributors to the Antarctic SMB, their role is expected to become more important in the coming centuries. Global and regional atmospheric climate models are unable to achieve a 40-km resolution over Antarctica at a century time scale, due to their computing cost. At this resolution, the Antarctic coastal area is still badly represented. This is why we developed the downscaling model SMHiL (Surface mass balance high-resolution downscaling) to estimate the Antarctic SMB components at a high resolution (~15 km) from large-scale atmospheric forcings. We computed the impact of the high-resolution topography on orographic precipitation amounts and the boundary layer processes that lead to sublimation, melting and refreezing. SMHiL has been validated for the present period with a dataset composed of more than 2700 quality-controlled observations. However, very few of these observations are representative of the Antarctic coastal area. In this context, we show that the GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA stake lines located on the ice sheet coast-to-plateau area is an appropriate reference to evaluate model performance. Finally, we used SMHiL to estimate the SMB changes during the 21st and 22nd centuries, by downscaling the atmospheric global climate model LMDZ4. The high-resolution SMB is significantly different from the SMB given by LMDZ4 and is closer to the observed one for the present period. Our results suggest that previous studies using the LMDZ4 models underestimated the future increase in SMB in Antarctica by about 30%. Future changes in the Antarctic SMB at low elevations will result from the conflict between higher snow accumulation and runoff. The downscaling model is a powerful tool that can be applied to climate models for a better assessment of a future rise in sea level.