Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses and the polar atmosphere evolve co-dependently, and interactions between the two systems can lead to feedbacks, positive and negative. The two primary positive cryosphere-atmosphere feedbacks are: 1) The snow/ice-albedo feedback (where area changes in snow and/or ice cause changes in surface albedo and surface air temperatures, leading to further area changes in snow/ice); and 2) The elevation - mass balance feedback (where thickness changes in terrestrial ice masses cause changes to atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, leading to further ice thickness changes). In this thesis, numerical experiments are performed to: 1) quantify the magnitudes of the two feedbacks for chosen Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses; and 2) to examine the direct and indirect consequences of surface air temperature changes upon englacial temperatures with implications for ice flow, mass flux divergence, and topographic evolution. Model results show that: a) for John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, the magnitude of the terrestrial snow/ice-albedo feedback can locally exceed that of sea ice on less than decadal timescales, with implications for glacier response times to climate perturbations; b) although historical air temperature changes might be the direct cause of measured englacial temperature anomalies in various glacier and ice cap accumulation zones, they can also be the indirect cause of their enhanced diffusive loss; c) while the direct result of past air temperature changes has been to cool the interior of John Evans Glacier, and its bed, the indirect result has been to create and maintain warm (pressure melting point) basal temperatures in the ablation zone; and d) for Devon Ice Cap, observed mass gains in the northwest sector of the ice cap would be smaller without orographic precipitation and the mass balance – elevation feedback, supporting the hypothesis that this feedback is playing a role in the evolution of the ice cap.

The aim of this research was to demonstrate the relationship between variations in summertime surface mass balance of the McMurdo Ice Shelf and atmospheric processes. The approach encompassed a broad range of techniques. An existing energy balance mass balance model was adapted to deal with debris-covered ice surfaces and modified to produce distributed output. Point based surface energy and mass balance for two key surfaces of the ice shelf were linked to different synoptic types that were identified using a manual synoptic classification. The distributed model was initialised with distributed parameters derived from satellite remote sensing and forced with data from a regional climate model. Patterns of summertime surface mass balance produced by the distributed model were assessed against stake measurements and with respect to atmospheric processes. During the summers of 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 an automatic weather station (AWS) was operated on bare and debris-covered ice surfaces of the McMurdo Ice shelf, Antarctica. Surface mass balance was calculated using the energy balance model driven by the data from the AWS and additional data from permanent climate stations. Net mass balance for the measurement period was reproduced reasonably well when validated against directly measured turbulent fluxes, stake measurements, and continuously measured surface height at the AWS. For the bare ice surface net radiation provided the major energy input for ablation, whereas sensible heat flux was a second heat source. Ablation was by both melt (70%) and sublimation (30%). At the debris-covered ice site investigated, it is inferred that the debris cover is sufficient to insulate the underlying ice from ablation. Synoptic weather situations were analysed based on AVHRR composite images and surface pressure charts. Three distinct synoptic situations were found to occur during the summers, these were defined as Type A, low pressure system residing in the Ross Sea Embayment; Type B, anticyclonic conditions across region; and Type C, a trough of low pressure extending into the Ross Sea Embayment. A dependence of surface energy fluxes and mass balance on synoptic situation was identified for the bare ice surface. The distributed model was found to produce spatial patterns of mass balance which compared well with stake measurements. Mass balance patterns show that the McMurdo Ice Shelf was generally ablating in the west, and accumulating in the east during summer. Areas of enhanced ablation were found which were likely to be caused by the surface conditions and topographic effects on the wind field. The mean summertime surface mass balance across the entire ice shelf for the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 summers were –2.5 mm w.e. and –6.7 mm w.e. respectively. The differences between the two summers are inferred to be a result of more frequent type A conditions occurring during the summer of 2004-2005.

We have developed a regional mass balance model for the St. Lawrence River near Cornwall, Ontario that describes the fate and transport of mercury in three forms, elemental mercury (Hg0), divalent mercury (Hg2+), and methyl mercury (MeHg), in a five compartment environment (air, water, sediments, periphyton, and benthos). Our first objective was to construct a steady-state mass balance model to determine the dominant sources and sinks of mercury in this environment. Our second objective was to construct a dynamic mass balance model to predict and hindcast mercury concentrations in this environment. We compiled mercury concentrations, fluxes, and transformation rates from previous studies completed in this section of the river to develop the model in STELLA®. The inflow of mercury was the major source to this system, accounting for 0.42 mol month-1, or 95.5% of all mercury inputs, whereas outflow was 0.28 mol month-1, or 63.6% of all losses, and sediment deposition was 0.12 mol month-1, or 27.3% of all losses. The dynamic mass balance model provides estimated results that are consistent with measured data and predicts historical local industrial emissions to be approximately 400 kg year-1. Uncertainty estimates were greatest for advective fluxes in surface water, porewater, periphyton, and benthic invertebrates. This model is useful for predicting and hindcasting mercury concentrations in other aquatic environments because it contains the three main environmental compartments, all forms of mercury, and compartments (e.g. periphyton) not included in previous mercury multi-media models.

This thesis investigates how changing climate conditions have impacted the mass balance, dynamics and associated hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) of White Glacier, an alpine glacier on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut. The first article describes the production of a new map of White Glacier from which changes in ice thickness and glacier hypsometry could be determined. A new digital elevation model (DEM) was created using >400 oblique air photos and Structure from Motion, a method built upon photogrammetry but with the advantage of automated image correlation analysis. The result of this work demonstrates that the method is able to overcome the challenges of optical remote sensing in snow-covered areas. The resulting DEM and orthoimage facilitated the production of a map with 5 m vertical accuracy in the style of earlier cartographic works. The new map supported the calculation of the glacier’s geodetic mass balance and provides an updated glacier hypsometry, which improves the accuracy of mass balance calculations. A modeled glacier hypsometry time-series was created to support a reanalysis of the mass balance record over the period 1960-2014, which through comparison of the geodetic and glaciological methods enables the detection of potential sources of error in the glaciological method. Comparison of the two approaches reveals that within the error margin no significant difference exists between the average annual glaciological mass balance (-213 ± 28 mm w.e. a 1) and geodetic mass balance ( 178 ± 16 mm w.e. a-1). To determine how ice dynamics have responded to ice thinning and negative mass balances, dual-frequency GPS observations of ice motion were compared to historic velocity measurements collected at three cross-sectional profiles along the glacier. Comparisons of annual and seasonal velocities indicate velocity decreases of 10–45% since the 1960s. However, increased summer velocities at the highest station suggests that increased delivery of surface meltwater to the glacier bed has initiated basal sliding at elevations that did not experience high levels of melt in earlier decades. Modeled balance fluxes demonstrate that observed fluxes, both historically and currently, are unsustainable under current climate conditions.

There has been a marked increase in melt season length over the past two decades on glaciers and ice caps within Canada’s Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI). Prior to the year ~2000 land ice was in a state of slightly negative mass balance (-11 +/- 11.5 Gt yr⁻¹ over 1958-1995), but recent GRACE measurements suggest that mass losses averaged -33 +/- 5 Gt yr⁻¹ between 2003-2015. These losses have primarily been attributed to meltwater runoff, making the QEI one of the largest recent contributors to sea level rise outside of the ice sheets. Despite these losses, there is a lack of information concerning how a warming climate is affecting small (<1 km²) ice bodies, which are considered sensitive indicators of change due to their short response time. In this study, historical and contemporary aerial photographs, high resolution optical satellite imagery, and ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys are used to determine area, thickness, mass and volume changes of Adams Icefield within Expedition Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, over the past seven decades (1948/59-2019). Area changes are determined from a comparison of air photos acquired in 1948/59 with satellite images acquired since 1979. Contemporary (2001, 2012, 2019) digital elevation models (DEMs) were either collected or created from stereo satellite images, and via aerial photo surveys using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. DEM of Difference maps calculated from these DEMs provide volume and mass changes. Results illustrate a steady reduction in glacier area, thickness, and volume prior to the year ~2000, followed by a rapid increase in losses over the past two decades. As a result, Adams Icefield is now rapidly declining and is likely to completely disappear early in the twenty-second century.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第17881号 / 工博第3790号 / 新制||工||1580(附属図書館) / 30701 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 米田 稔, 教授 田中 宏明, 教授 清水 芳久 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Spaceborne microwave sensors are powerful tools for monitoring the impacts of global climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. This dissertation focuses on refining methods for applying microwave data in Greenland studies by using new simple theoretical and empirical models to investigate (1) azimuth anisotropies in the data, (2) the microwave signature of the snow surface, (3) detection of snow melt, and (4) classification of snow melt. The results are applicable for identifying geophysical properties of the snow surface and monitoring changes on the ice sheet in relation to melt duration/extent, accumulation, and wind patterns. Azimuth dependence of the normalized radar cross-section (sigma-0) over the Greenland ice sheet is modeled with a simple surface scattering model. The model assumes that azimuth anisotropy in 1-100 meter scale surface roughness is the primary mechanism driving the azimuth modulation. This model is inverted to estimate snow surface properties using sigma-0 measurements from the C-band European Remote Sensing Advanced Microwave Instrument (ERS) in scatterometer mode. The largest roughness estimates occur in the lower portions of the dry snow zone. Estimates of the preferential direction in surface roughness are highly correlated with katabatic wind fields over Greenland. A new observation model is introduced that uses a limited number of parameters to characterize the snow surface based on the dependence of radar backscatter on incidence angle, azimuth angle, spatial gradient, and temporal rate of change. The individual model parameters are discussed in depth with examples using data from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and from the ERS. The model may be applied for increased accuracy in scatterometer, SAR, and wide-angle SAR studies. Examples illustrating the use of the model are included with one application focusing on analysis of inter-annual change and another focusing on increased sensitivity in studies of intra-annual change. Six different melt detection method/sensor combinations are compared using data for the summer of 2000. The sensors include the Special Spectral Microwave Imager (SSM/I), SeaWinds on QuikSCAT (QSCAT), and ERS. A new method of melt detection is introduced that is based on a simple physical model relating the moisture content and depth of a layer of wet surface snow to a single channel melt detection threshold. The model can be applied to both active and passive sensors. Model-based melt estimates from different sensors are highly correlated and do not exhibit the unnatural phenomenon observed with previous methods. Trends in SSM/I channel ratios are used to differentiate subsurface and surface melt. For ablation estimation, this separation is important due to expected differences in the ablation rate for the two melt types. Evidences of the daily melt refreeze cycle are observed in the diurnal variation of the different brightness temperature channel ratios. The polarization ratio increases during periods of surface melt while the frequency ratio remains relatively constant. The frequency ratio increases during periods of expected subsurface melt. Similar trends are observed in brightness temperature measurements from in situ data collected by other investigators.

Western Antarctica has been experiencing significant warming for at least the past fifty years. While higher Net Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over West Antarctica during this period of warming is expected, SMB reconstructions from ice cores reveal a more complex pattern during the period of warming. The mechanisms giving rise to SMB variability over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are not well understood due to lack of instrumental data. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are believed to contribute to WAIS SMB variability but the assumption has not been rigorously tested. SMB during years where SAM and ENSO are in extreme phases is compared to average SMB from the period 1979-2010. Additionally, atmospheric circulation anomalies are used to assess what circulation patterns accompany extreme modes of climate during the same period. The results suggest that significantly lower SMB occurs when SAM is in an extremely positive phase or ENSO is in an extremely negative phase. Additionally, atmospheric circulation anomalies show that certain circulation patterns accompany extreme modes of climate, which contribute to SMB variability over the WAIS. Ultimately, the location of low and high pressure cells is the best predictor for extreme accumulation events over the WAIS. These results are verified by assessing observed net SMB trends from a network of firn cores located from the central WAIS. Seven new firn cores are added to improve the spatial network of regional net SMB measurements. Reconstructed net SMB is calculated from new firn core records, and compared to the existing cores. The new suite of preliminary firn core records show the same significant decreasing trend that is observed in existing cores. This represents a negative region-wide SMB trend that is likely in part due to trends in SAM and ENSO.

Glaciers adjust their sizes as a response to changing climatic conditions which make them a good indicator of climate change. Remote-sensing based glacier monitoring provides a robust way to inventory the health of glaciers and are estimated as a measure of changes in their area, length, volume and mass balance over a period. This research uses remote sensing methods to map glacier extents from satellite images and explores the efficacy of three machine learning algorithms for accurate glacier classification. The results indicated that the Columbia icefield lost 42 km2 of its area cover between 1985 and 2018. It was observed that smaller glaciers lost more of their area at a faster pace than larger ones. Change analysis showed the Columbia glacier experienced the highest area loss (-5.62 km2) and retreat (-3.37 km) while the Athabasca glacier recorded the highest mass ice lose (-2.54 m w.e.) over the study period.

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