Knowledge about spatial and temporal variability of hydrological processes is central for sustainable water-resources management, and such knowledge is created from observational data. Hydrologic models are necessary for prediction for time periods and areas lacking data, but are affected by observational uncertainties. Methods for estimating and accounting for such uncertainties in water-resources modelling are of high importance, especially in regions such as Central America. Observational uncertainties were addressed in three ways in this thesis; quality control, quantitative estimation and development of model-evaluation techniques that addressed unquantifiable uncertainties. A first step in any modelling study should be the quality control and concurrent analysis of the representativeness of the observational data. In the characterisation of the precipitation regime in the Choluteca River basin in Honduras, four different quality problems were identified and 22% of the daily data had to be rejected. The monitoring network was found to be insufficient for a comprehensive characterisation of the high spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation regime. Quantitative estimations of data uncertainties can be made when sufficient information is available. Discharge-data uncertainties were estimated with a fuzzy regression for time-variable rating curves and from official rating curves for 35 stations in Honduras. The uncertainties were largest for low flows, as a result of measurement uncertainties and natural variability. A method for calibration with flow-duration curves was developed which enabled calibration to the whole flow range, accounting for discharge uncertainty and calibration with non-overlapping time periods for model input and evaluation data. The method compared favourably to traditional calibration in a test using two models applied in basins with different runoff-generation processes. A post-hoc analysis made it possible to identify potential model-structure errors and periods of disinformative data. Flow-duration curves were regionalised and used for calibration of a Central-American water-balance model. The initial model uncertainty for the ungauged basins was reduced by 70%. Non-representative precipitation data were found to be the main obstacle to comprehensive regional water-resources modelling in Central America. These methods bridged several problems related to observational uncertainties in water-balance modelling. Estimates of prediction uncertainty are an important basis for all types of decisions related to water-resources management. / Kännedom om hur hydrologiska processer varierar i tid och rum är grundläggande för hållbar vattenresursförvaltning och skapas utifrån observerade data. Hydrologiska modeller är nödvändiga för att förutsäga vattenbalansen för tidsperioder och områden utan data, men påverkas av observationsosäkerheter. Metoder för att hantera sådana osäkerheter i vattenresursmodellering är av stor betydelse i regioner såsom Centralamerika. Observationsosäkerheter hanterades på tre olika sätt i denna avhandling; kvalitetskontroll, kvantitativ uppskattning och utveckling av modellutvärderingsmetoder för beaktande av icke kvantifierbara osäkerheter. Ett viktigt första steg är kvalitetskontroll och samtidig analys av datas representativitet. Vid karaktäriseringen av nederbördsregimen i Cholutecaflodens avrinningsområde i Honduras identifierades fyra olika kvalitetsproblem och 22 % av data sorterades bort. Stationsnätet var otillräckligt för en fullödig karaktärisering av nederbördsregimens variationer i tid och rum. Dessa var mycket stora som ett resultat av komplexiteten hos de nederbördsgenererande mekanismerna. Kvantitativ uppskattning av observerade datas osäkerhet kan göras när tillräcklig information är tillgänglig. Osäkerheter i vattenföringsdata uppskattades dels vid beräkning av vattenföring med en oskarp regression för en tidsvariabel avbördningskurva, dels från en analys av officiella avbördningskurvor från 35 stationer i Honduras. Osäkerheten var i båda fallen högst vid låga flöden som ett resultat av högre mätosäkerheter samt större naturlig variabilitet än vid höga flöden. En metod för modellkalibrering med varaktighetskurvor utvecklades och gjorde det möjligt att kalibrera för hela flödesintervallet samtidigt, ta hänsyn till osäkerheter i vattenföringsdata samt kalibrera med icke överlappande driv- och utvärderingsdata. Metoden testades med två olika modeller i två avrinningsområden med olika avrinningsbildningsprocesser, och visade goda resultat jämfört med traditionell modellkalibrering. En post hoc-analys gjorde det möjligt att identifiera troliga modellstrukturfel och perioder med disinformativa data. Varaktighetskurvor regionaliserades och användes för kalibrering av en regional vattenbalansmodell för Centralamerika, varvid den initiala modellosäkerheten minskades med 70 %. Icke representativa nederbördsdata identifierades som det största hindret för regional vattenresursmodellering i Centralamerika. De metoder som utvecklades i detta arbete gör det möjligt att överbrygga ett flertal problem orsakade av bristfällig tillgänglighet och kvalitet av data och leder därmed till en förbättrad uppskattning av osäkerheten i vattenbalanssimuleringar. Sådana osäkerhetsskattningar är ett viktigt underlag vid alla typer av förvaltningsbeslut som rör vattenresurser.

In this thesis a number of statistical methods have been developed and applied to habitat suitability modelling for rare and threatened species. Data available on these species are typically limited. Therefore, developing these models from these data can be problematic and may produce prediction biases. To address these problems there are three aims of this thesis. The _rst aim is to develop and implement frequentist and Bayesian statistical modelling approaches for these types of data. The second aim is develop and implement expert elicitation methods. The third aim is to apply these novel approaches to Australian rare and threatened species case studies with the intention of habitat suitability modelling. The _rst aim is ful_lled by investigating two innovative approaches for habitat suitability modelling and sensitivity analysis of the second approach to priors. The _rst approach is a new multilevel framework developed to model the species distribution at multiple scales and identify excess zeros (absences outside the species range). Applying a statistical modelling approach to the identi_cation of excess zeros has not previously been conducted. The second approach is an extension and application of Bayesian classi_cation trees to modelling the habitat suitability of a threatened species. This is the _rst `real' application of this approach in ecology. Lastly, sensitivity analysis of the priors in Bayesian classi_cation trees are examined for a real case study. Previously, sensitivity analysis of this approach to priors has not been examined. To address the second aim, expert elicitation methods are developed, extended and compared in this thesis. In particular, one elicitation approach is extended from previous research, there is a comparison of three elicitation methods, and one new elicitation approach is proposed. These approaches are illustrated for habitat suitability modelling of a rare species and the opinions of one or two experts are elicited. The _rst approach utilises a simple questionnaire, in which expert opinion is elicited on whether increasing values of a covariate either increases, decreases or does not substantively impact on a response. This approach is extended to express this information as a mixture of three normally distributed prior distributions, which are then combined with available presence/absence data in a logistic regression. This is one of the _rst elicitation approaches within the habitat suitability modelling literature that is appropriate for experts with limited statistical knowledge and can be used to elicit information from single or multiple experts. Three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression are compared, one of which is the questionnaire approach. Included in this comparison of three elicitation methods are a summary of the advantages and disadvantages of these three methods, the results from elicitations and comparison of the prior and posterior distributions. An expert elicitation approach is developed for classi_cation trees, in which the size and structure of the tree is elicited. There have been numerous elicitation approaches proposed for logistic regression, however no approaches have been suggested for classi_cation trees. The last aim of this thesis is addressed in all chapters, since the statistical approaches proposed and extended in this thesis have been applied to real case studies. Two case studies have been examined in this thesis. The _rst is the rare native Australian thistle (Stemmacantha australis), in which the dataset contains a large number of absences distributed over the majority of Queensland, and a small number of presence sites that are only within South-East Queensland. This case study motivated the multilevel modelling framework. The second case study is the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The application and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian classi_cation trees, and all expert elicitation approaches investigated in this thesis are applied to this case study. This work has several implications for conservation and management of rare and threatened species. Novel statistical approaches addressing the _rst aim provide extensions to currently existing methods, or propose a new approach, for identi _cation of current and potential habitat. We demonstrate that better model predictions can be achieved using each method, compared to standard techniques. Elicitation approaches addressing the second aim ensure expert knowledge in various forms can be harnessed for habitat modelling, a particular bene_t for rare and threatened species which typically have limited data. Throughout, innovations in statistical methodology are both motivated and illustrated via habitat modelling for two rare and threatened species: the native thistle Stemmacantha australis and the brush-tailed rock wallaby Petrogale penicillata.

The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

Natural ventilation is the dominating ventilation process in ancient buildings like churches, and also in most domestic buildings in Sweden and in the rest of the world. These buildings are naturally ventilated via air infiltration and airing. Air infiltration is the airflow through adventitious leakages in the building envelope, while airing is the intentional air exchange through large openings like windows and doors. Airing can in turn be performed either as single-sided (one opening) or as cross flow ventilation (two or more openings located on different walls). The total air exchange affects heating energy and indoor air quality. In churches, deposition of airborne particles causes gradual soiling of indoor surfaces, including paintings and other pieces of art. Significant amounts of particles are emitted from visitors and from candles, incense, etc. Temporary airing is likely to reduce this problem, and it can also be used to adjust the indoor temperature. The present study investigates mechanisms and prediction models regarding air infiltration and open-door airing by means of field measurements, experiments in wind tunnel and computer modelling. In natural ventilation, both air infiltration and airing share the same driving forces, i.e. wind and buoyancy (indoor-outdoor temperature differences). Both forces turn out to be difficult to predict, especially wind induced flows and the combination of buoyancy and wind. In the first part of the present study, two of the most established models for predicting air infiltration rate in buildings were evaluated against measurements in three historical stone churches in Sweden. A correction factor of 0.8 is introduced to adjust one of the studied models (which yielded better predictions) for fitting the large single zones like churches. Based on field investigation and IR-thermography inspections, a detailed numerical model was developed for prediction of air infiltration, where input data included assessed level of the neutral pressure level (NPL). The model functionality was validated against measurements in one of the case studies, indicating reasonable prediction capability. It is suggested that this model is further developed by including a more systematic calibration system for more building types and with different weather conditions. Regarding airing, both single-sided and cross flow rates through the porches of various church buildings were measured with tracer gas method, as well as through direct measurements of the air velocity in a porch opening. Measurement results were compared with predictions attained from four previously developed models for single‑sided ventilation. Models that include terms for wind turbulence were found to yield somewhat better predictions. According to the performed measurements, the magnitude of one hour single-sided open-door airing in a church typically yields around 50% air exchange, indicating that this is a workable ventilation method, also for such large building volumes. A practical kind of diagram to facilitate estimation of suitable airing period is presented. The ability of the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA-ICE) computer program to predict airing rates was examined by comparing with field measurements in a church. The programs’ predictions of single-sided airflows through an open door of the church were of the same magnitude as the measured ones; however, the effect of wind direction was not well captured by the program, indicating a development potential. Finally, wind driven air flows through porch type openings of a church model were studied in a wind tunnel, where the airing rates were measured by tracer gas. At single-sided airing, a higher flow rate was observed at higher wind turbulence and when the opening was on the windward side of the building, in agreement with field measurements. Further, the airing rate was on the order of 15 times higher at cross flow than at single-sided airing. Realization of cross flow thus seems highly recommendable for enhanced airing. Calibration constants for a simple equation for wind driven flow through porches are presented. The measurements also indicate that advection through turbulence is a more important airing mechanism than pumping.   The present work adds knowledge particularly to the issues of air infiltration and airing through doors, in large single zones. The results can be applicable also to other kinds of large single-zone buildings, like industry halls, atriums and sports halls. / Naturlig ventilation är den dominerande ventilationsprocessen i äldre byggnader såsom kyrkor, och även i de flesta småhus i Sverige och övriga delar av världen. Luftinfiltration och vädring utgör viktiga komponenter i naturlig ventilation, där luftinfiltration är luftflöde genom oavsiktliga läckage i byggnadsskalet, medan vädring är avsiktligt luftutbyte genom stora öppningar såsom fönster och dörrar/portar. Vädring kan i sin tur ske ensidigt (genom en öppning) eller som tvärdrag (genom två eller flera öppningar belägna på olika ytterväggar). Det totala luftutbytet påverkar värmeförluster och inomhusluftens kvalité. I kyrkor orsakar avsättning av luftpartiklar en gradvis nedsmutsning av invändiga ytor, inklusive väggmålningar och andra konstföremål. Betydande mängder partiklar avges från besökare, tända ljus, rökelse, o.d. Tillfällig vädring kan minska detta problem, men även användas för att justera innetemperaturen. Föreliggande studie analyserar mekanismer och predikteringsmodeller gällande luftinfiltration och dörrvädring genom fältmätningar, vindtunnelförsök och datorsimuleringar. Luftinfiltration och vädring har samma drivkrafter, d.v.s. vind och termik (inne‑ute temperaturskillnader). Båda dessa drivkrafter är svåra att predicera, särskilt vindinducerade flöden och kombinationen av termik och vind. Två av de mest etablerade modellerna för luftinfiltrationsprediktering i byggnader har utvärderats via mätningar i tre kulturhistoriska stenkyrkor i Sverige. En korrigeringsfaktor av 0,8 föreslås för bättre prediktion av den ena modellen (som gav bäst resultat) gällande höga en-zonsbyggnader såsom kyrkor. En detaljerad numerisk modell är utvecklad för luftinfiltrationsprediktering, där indata baseras på fältundersökningar, inkl. IR-termografering och uppmätt av neutrala tryckplanet (NPL). Modellens funktionalitet har validerats via mätningar i en av fallstudierna och pekar på tämligen god prediktionsprestanda. Vidare utveckling av modellen föreslås, inkl. ett mer systematiskt kalibreringssystem, för olika typer av byggnader och väderförhållanden. Gällande vädring mättes både ensidigt flöde och tvärdrag genom portar i olika kyrkobyggnader med hjälp av spårgas samt direkta lufthastighetsmätningar i portöppning. Mätresultaten jämfördes med erhållna prediktioner från fyra tidigare utvecklade modeller för ensidig ventilation. De modeller som tog hänsyn till vindturbulens gav något bättre resultat. Enligt utförda mätningar medför en timmes ensidig portvädring i en kyrka cirka 50 % luftutbyte, vilket indikerar att detta är en tillämpbar ventilationsmetod, även för så pass stora byggnadsvolymer. Ett särskilt vädringsdiagram presenteras, som syftar till att underlätta uppskattning av erforderlig vädringsperiod. Vidare studerades predikteringsprestanda hos IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA-ICE) simuleringsprogram avseende vädring, där simuleringsdata jämfördes med fältmätningar i en kyrka. Programmets prediktion av ensidigt luftflöde genom en öppen kyrkport var av samma storlekordning som det uppmäta; dock klarade programmet inte av att hantera inverkan av vindriktning så väl, vilket pekar på en utvecklingspotential. Avslutningsvis undersöktes vinddrivet flöde igenom portöppningar i en kyrkmodell i vindtunnel, där luftomsättningen mättes med hjälp av spårgasmetoden. Vid ensidig vädring observerades högre flöde vid högre vindturbulens och när öppningen var på vindsidan av byggnaden, i överensstämmelse med fältmätningarna. Dessutom var vädringsflödet vid tvärdrag i storleksordningen 15 högre än det vid ensidig vädring. Det verkar alltså som att man kan öka vädringstakten avsevärt om man kan åstadkomma tvärdrag. Kalibreringskonstanter presenteras också för en enkel ekvation för vinddrivet flöde genom portar. Vindtunnelstudien indikerar vidare att advektion genom turbulens är en viktigare vädringsmekanism än pumpning. Föreliggande arbete bidrar med kunskap speciellt kring luftinfiltration och vädring genom portar i höga en-zonsbyggnader. Resultaten kan även vara tillämpliga på andra typer av höga en-zonsbyggnader såsom industrihallar, atrier/ljusgårdar och idrottshallar. / Church project

Dizertační práce se zabývá predikcí vysokodimenzionálních dat genových expresí. Množství dostupných genomických dat významně vzrostlo v průběhu posledního desetiletí. Kombinování dat genových expresí s dalšími daty nachází uplatnění v mnoha oblastech. Například v klinickém řízení rakoviny (clinical cancer management) může přispět k přesnějšímu určení prognózy nemocí. Hlavní část této dizertační práce je zaměřena na kombinování dat genových expresí a klinických dat. Používáme logistické regresní modely vytvořené prostřednictvím různých regularizačních technik. Generalizované lineární modely umožňují kombinování modelů s různou strukturou dat. V dizertační práci je ukázáno, že kombinování modelu dat genových expresí a klinických dat může vést ke zpřesnění výsledku predikce oproti vytvoření modelu pouze z dat genových expresí nebo klinických dat. Navrhované postupy přitom nejsou výpočetně náročné.  Testování je provedeno nejprve se simulovanými datovými sadami v různých nastaveních a následně s~reálnými srovnávacími daty. Také se zde zabýváme určením přídavné hodnoty microarray dat. Dizertační práce obsahuje porovnání příznaků vybraných pomocí klasifikátoru genových expresí na pěti různých sadách dat týkajících se rakoviny prsu. Navrhujeme také postup výběru příznaků, který kombinuje data genových expresí a znalosti z genových ontologií.

In dieser Arbeit wird untersucht, wie eine theoriegeleitete Bewertung der Auslagerungseignung von Geschäftsprozessen erfolgen kann und welche Ansatzpunkte für profitables Wachstum von Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)-Anbietern in Deutschland sich aus der Nutzung einer entsprechenden Methodik ableiten lassen. Dazu wird in drei Schritten vorgegangen. In einem ersten Schritt wird ein theoretisch-konzeptionelles Bewertungsmodell zur Bestimmung der Auslagerungseignung von Geschäftsprozessen entwickelt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden Möglichkeiten einer konzeptionellen Übertragung dieses Modells auf Praxisanwendungen geprüft. Im abschließenden dritten Schritt wird gezeigt, wie die Verwendung des in dieser Arbeit entwickelten Bewertungsmodells im Rahmen der Marktbearbeitungsaktivitäten von BPO-Dienstleistern einen Beitrag zum profitablen Wachstum dieser Anbieter leisten kann.:1 Einführung: Organisationen im Wandel 1.1 Problemstellung 1.2 Zielsetzung der Arbeit und wissenschaftliche Vorgehensweise 1.3 Stand der Publikationen 2 Business Processs Outsourcing: Entwicklung, Systematisierung und Definition 2.1 Entwicklung des Business Process Outsourcing 2.2 Systematisierungsansätze für die Begriffe Sourcing und Outsourcing 2.3 Definition und Abgrenzung des Business Process Outsourcings 3 Entwicklung eines theoretisch-konzeptionellen Modells zur Bedarfsermittlung an BPO-Leistungen 3.1 Grenzen der Theorieauswahl 3.2 Vorstellung ausgewählter theoretischer Ansätze 3.3 Klassifizierung von Entscheidungsmodellen 3.4 Multikriterielle Entscheidungsmodelle 3.5 Eingrenzung der theoretischen Elemente zur Entwicklung eines BPO-Entscheidungsmodells 3.6 Entwicklung eines BPO-Entscheidungsmodells 4 Ansätze zur konzeptionellen Übertragung des BPO-Entscheidungsmodells auf Praxisanwendungen 4.1 Entwicklung einer individuellen Bewertungsmethodik 4.2 Entwicklung einer Gesamtbewertungsmethodik 4.3 Zwischenfazit 5 Ansätze für profitables Wachstum von BPO-Dienstleistern 5.1 Marktbegriffe 5.2 Marketing und Marketing-Wissenschaft 5.3 Entwicklung von Marketingansätzen für BPO-Dienstleister 6 Fazit und Ausblick 6.1 Fazit 6.2 Ausblick / In this thesis it is studied how a theory-based assessment of business processes regarding their adequacy for outsourcing can be carried out and what starting points for profitable growth of Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) providers in Germany can result from the application of such a methodology. For this purpose a three step approach is taken. As a first step a theory-based concept of an assessment model to determine the adequacy of outsourcing business processes is developed. As a second step possibilities for transferring the concept of this model to real life applications are examined. In a final third step it is shown how the assessment model developed here can be used as part of the marketing activities of BPO companies to contribute to their profitable growth.:1 Einführung: Organisationen im Wandel 1.1 Problemstellung 1.2 Zielsetzung der Arbeit und wissenschaftliche Vorgehensweise 1.3 Stand der Publikationen 2 Business Processs Outsourcing: Entwicklung, Systematisierung und Definition 2.1 Entwicklung des Business Process Outsourcing 2.2 Systematisierungsansätze für die Begriffe Sourcing und Outsourcing 2.3 Definition und Abgrenzung des Business Process Outsourcings 3 Entwicklung eines theoretisch-konzeptionellen Modells zur Bedarfsermittlung an BPO-Leistungen 3.1 Grenzen der Theorieauswahl 3.2 Vorstellung ausgewählter theoretischer Ansätze 3.3 Klassifizierung von Entscheidungsmodellen 3.4 Multikriterielle Entscheidungsmodelle 3.5 Eingrenzung der theoretischen Elemente zur Entwicklung eines BPO-Entscheidungsmodells 3.6 Entwicklung eines BPO-Entscheidungsmodells 4 Ansätze zur konzeptionellen Übertragung des BPO-Entscheidungsmodells auf Praxisanwendungen 4.1 Entwicklung einer individuellen Bewertungsmethodik 4.2 Entwicklung einer Gesamtbewertungsmethodik 4.3 Zwischenfazit 5 Ansätze für profitables Wachstum von BPO-Dienstleistern 5.1 Marktbegriffe 5.2 Marketing und Marketing-Wissenschaft 5.3 Entwicklung von Marketingansätzen für BPO-Dienstleister 6 Fazit und Ausblick 6.1 Fazit 6.2 Ausblick

<p>The most important networks from different domains—such as Computing, Organization, Economic, Social, Academic, and Biology—are networks that change over time. For example, in an organization there are email and collaboration networks (e.g., different people or teams working on a document). Apart from the connectivity of the networks changing over time, they can contain attributes such as the topic of an email or message, contents of a document, or the interests of a person in an academic citation or a social network. Analyzing these dynamic networks can be critical in decision-making processes. For instance, in an organization, getting insight into how people from different teams collaborate, provides important information that can be used to optimize workflows.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Network generative models provide a way to study and analyze networks. For example, benchmarking model performance and generalization in tasks like node classification, can be done by evaluating models on synthetic networks generated with varying structure and attribute correlation. In this work, we begin by presenting our systemic study of the impact that graph structure and attribute auto-correlation on the task of node classification using collective inference. This is the first time such an extensive study has been done. We take advantage of a recently developed method that samples attributed networks—although static—with varying network structure jointly with correlated attributes. We find that the graph connectivity that contributes to the network auto-correlation (i.e., the local relationships of nodes) and density have the highest impact on the performance of collective inference methods.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Most of the literature to date has focused on static representations of networks, partially due to the difficulty of finding readily-available datasets of dynamic networks. Dynamic network generative models can bridge this gap by generating synthetic graphs similar to observed real-world networks. Given that motifs have been established as building blocks for the structure of real-world networks, modeling them can help to generate the graph structure seen and capture correlations in node connections and activity. Therefore, we continue with a study of motif evolution in <em>dynamic</em> temporal graphs. Our key insight is that motifs rarely change configurations in fast-changing dynamic networks (e.g. wedges intotriangles, and vice-versa), but rather keep reappearing at different times while keeping the same configuration. This finding motivates the generative process of our proposed models, using temporal motifs as building blocks, that generates dynamic graphs with links that appear and disappear over time.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Our first proposed model generates dynamic networks based on motif-activity and the roles that nodes play in a motif. For example, a wedge is sampled based on the likelihood of one node having the role of hub with the two other nodes being the spokes. Our model learns all parameters from observed data, with the goal of producing synthetic graphs with similar graph structure and node behavior. We find that using motifs and node roles helps our model generate the more complex structures and the temporal node behavior seen in real-world dynamic networks.</p> <p><br></p> <p>After observing that using motif node-roles helps to capture the changing local structure and behavior of nodes, we extend our work to also consider the attributes generated by nodes’ activities. We propose a second generative model for attributed dynamic networks that (i) captures network structure dynamics through temporal motifs, and (ii) extends the structural roles of nodes in motifs to roles that generate content embeddings. Our new proposed model is the first to generate synthetic dynamic networks and sample content embeddings based on motif node roles. To the best of our knowledge, it is the only attributed dynamic network model that can generate <em>new</em> content embeddings—not observed in the input graph, but still similar to that of the input graph. Our results show that modeling the network attributes with higher-order structures (e.g., motifs) improves the quality of the networks generated.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The generative models proposed address the difficulty of finding readily-available datasets of dynamic networks—attributed or not. This work will also allow others to: (i) generate networks that they can share without divulging individual’s private data, (ii) benchmark model performance, and (iii) explore model generalization on a broader range of conditions, among other uses. Finally, the evaluation measures proposed will elucidate models, allowing fellow researchers to push forward in these domains.</p>