Under det gångna århundradet ökade den förväntade livslängden avsevärt såväl i Sverige som i övriga världen. 1900-talets förbättrade livslängd drevs inledningsvis av en minskad barnadödlighet medan de senare årtiondena kännetecknades av minskad dödlighet i höga åldrar. En åldrande befolkning innebär ökade krav på sjukvård, äldreomsorg och inte minst pensionssystem. Pålitliga prognoser för vår framtida livslängd behövs för att beräkna de resurser som nämnda verksamheter kommer att ta i anspråk och utgör förutsättningen för en rättvis prissättning av försäkringsprodukter med levnadsrisk. Lee-Carter-modellen är en av vår tids tongivande modeller för mortalitetsprognostisering. Modellen används här för att göra livslängdsprognoser utifrån svenska mortalitetsdata; prognoserna jämförs sedan med observerade utfall. Mot bakgrund av resultatet diskuteras levnadsrisk med fokus på pensioner. Inte oväntat presterar prognoserna ingen felfri bild av verkligheten och prognosfelet varierar i storlek mellan skattningarna; att använda dem som underlag för pensionsberäkningar hade i förlängningen varit ohållbart. Exemplet illustrerar på samma gång vår osäkerhet inför framtidens livslängdsutveckling och svårigheten i att prognostisera den. / During the past century, Sweden along with many other countries experienced a sharp decline in mortality rates. The increased life expectancy was initially propelled by mortality reductions among infants and subsequently by a survival improvement in advanced ages. An ageing population has large implications for those providing services to the elderly, such as medical care and pensions, whilst also addressing the need for accurate and reliable mortality forecasts and projection methods. The Lee-Carter model is the current gold standard for mortality forecasting and has been widely adopted in several studies. Here, the model is applied on Swedish mortality data; the projections are then compared to the observed lifespan development. Against this backdrop, a discussion on longevity risk in pensions schemes follows. The forecasts performed in this study do not perfectly reflect the observed mortality change in the examined period; furthermore, the variation of the estimation errors limits the actuarial value of the projections. The findings illuminate the uncertainty that surrounds our future life expectancy as well as the difficulties associated with forecasting it.

Impact of private pension funds on capital market Final work of University Postgraduate Studies consists of 73 pages, 18 figures, 10 tables, 81 sources of literature and 3 appendixes, in Lithuanian. Key words:pensions, social security, pension reform, private pension funds, capital market. The object of research is private pension funds. The aim of research is to estimate impact of private pension funds on capital market. The objektives are: 1) specify the concept of private pension funds, 2) perform theoretical analysis of private pension funds activity, 3) estimatepossible possible position of private pension funds in capital market, 4) frame the methodology of the estimation the impact of private pension funds on capital market, 5) traverse the capital market in Lithuania and investment of private pension funds, 6) estimate the factors of private pension funds that determinant the potential impact on capital market, 7)estimate the impact of private pension funds on capital market. methods of research: analysis and synthesis of scientific literature, logical analysis and synthesis, comparable analysis, graphic methods of modeling.

Viešojo sektoriaus ekonomikos magistro baigiamojo darbo tema yra aktuali, kadangi darbe nagrinėjama Lietuvos valstybinių pensijų sistema. Pensijų sistema – tai vienas iš socialinės apsaugos elementų. Socialinis draudimas yra pagrindinis institutas, apsaugantis pilietį rinkos ekonomikos sąlygomis. Prieš penkis metus Lietuvoje pradėta įgyvendinti valstybinio socialinio draudimo pensijų sistemos reforma. Ši reforma reiškia dalinį valstybinio socialinio draudimo pensijų sistemos privatizavimą. Šis žingsnis susilaukė ir kritikos ir pritarimo. Lietuvos mokslininkai, atlikę skaičiavimus ir statistinius tyrimus labai kritikavo ir tebekritikuoja atliktą reformą. Pasak juos, reformuota pensijų sistema nėra teisinga, daugiausia nuo jos nukentės dabartiniai pensininkai, bei vyresni dabartiniai darbuotojai, nepatenkantys į sistemą (Gylys, 2002). Atlikti tyrimai parodė, kad valstybinio socialinio draudimo pensijų sistema sukuria didesnį socialinį saugumą, nei privačių pensijų sistemos (Bitinas, 2008). Beje Lietuvoje privačios pensijų sistemos kuriamos valstybinio socialinio draudimo pensijų sąskaita. Įgyvendinus pensijų reformą, turi būti nagrinėjama, kokį socialinį poveikį pensijų sistema turės ateityje. Pensijų sistema turi būti valdoma siekiant socialinio teisingumo. Laisvosios rinkos instituto ekspertai pritaria pensijų sistemos privatizavimui, jie teigia, kad norint išgelbėti žmonių pensijas, o ne dabartinę socialinio draudimo sistemą, reikia esminių reformų, kurių galutinis tikslas... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Public Sector Economics Master's final thesis topic is of interest because we consider the Lithuanian state pension system. Pension system - is one of the elements of social protection. Social security is the basic institution which protects the national market economy. Five years ago Lithuania was launched in the state social insurance pension system reform. This reform is part of the state social insurance pension system privatization. This step and the context of criticism and support. Lithuanian scientists perform calculations and statistical analysis is very critical and critical carried out the reform. According to the reformed pension system is not fair, they will suffer most from the current retirees and older workers today, outside the system (Gylys, 2002). Studies have shown that the state social insurance pension system creates greater social security or private pension systems (Bitinas, 2008). By the way Lithuania private pension system developed state social insurance pension account. The implementation of pension reform should address the question of the social impact of the pension system will in the future. Pension system should be managed in the interest of social justice. Free Market Institute, experts agree the privatization of the pension system, they argue that in order to save people's pensions, rather than the current Social Security system needs radical reform, with the ultimate aim of the mandatory state social insurance waiver. However, the social... [to full text]

Dauguma išsivysčiusių pasaulio šalių susiduria su senatvės pensijų sistemos mokumo problemomis, todėl senatvės pensijų modelių analizei ir jų tobulinimui pastaraisiais dešimtmečiais skiriama vis daugiau dėmesio. Tyrimo objektu pasirinkti senatvės pensijų draudimo modeliai. Tyrimo problema yra ta, kad nėra vieno ir tobulo senatvės pensijų sistemos modelio, kurį būtų galima efektyviai pritaikyti esant konkrečioms ekonominėms, socialinėms ir demografinėms aplinkybėms. Tyrimo tikslas yra išanalizuoti įvairius senatvės pensijų draudimo modelius, identifikuoti pagrindinius jų parametrus, išskirti pagrindinius finansavimo ir išmokų mokėjimo būdus bei įvertinti priežastis, lemiančias modelių pasirinkimą bei jų tęstinumą užtikrinančius kriterijus, atlikti Lietuvos senatvės pensijų sistemos vertinimą. Darbe atlikta mokslinė užsienio ir lietuvių literatūros bei statistinių duomenų analizė, siekiant atskleisti senatvės pensijų modelius, kitimą, problemas ir svarbiausius teorinius aspektus, taip pat atliktas tyrimas siekiant įvertinti Lietuvos senatvės pensijų sistemą. Darbas susideda iš trijų skyrių. Pirmame skyriuje „Senatvės pensijų draudimo modeliai“ apibrėžiama senatvės pensinio draudimo ir tradicinių pensinių draudimo modelių samprata, susijusios sąvokos, administravimo būdai, analizuojami einamųjų mokėjimų ir kaupimo modeliai, pensijų pakopos. Pateikiami mokslininkų tyrimai ir nuomonės apie skirtingus modelius. Antrame skyriuje „Lietuvos senatvės pensijų draudimo modelis“... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Most developed countries faces a pension system solvency problems, that‘s why in recent decades old-age pension models analysis and development has received increasing attention. Object of study is chosen old-age pension models. The research problem is that there is no one perfect model, which can be effectively applied to specific economic, social or demographic circumstances. The aim of study is to analyze variety old-age pension models, identify key parameters, distinguish the main financing and payment methods and assess the reasons which influence the choice of models, evaluate Lithuania old-age pension system. Analysis of scientific foreign and Lithuania literature and statistical data are done in study, on purpose to reveal the problems, dynamics and the most important theoretical aspects, also a research is done to evaluate the Lithuanian old-age pension system. The study consists of three chapters. In the first part “The old-age pension models” are defined the concept of old age pension, related terms, traditional old-age models concepts, pension system administration methods are related, pay-as-you-go and fully funded models and pension pillars are analyzed. Scientific research and opinion are presented about different models. In the second part “Lithuania old-age pension model” Lithuania old age pension model is analyzed: current state, funding, legislative basis, performed a statistical data analysis. In the third part respondent’s systematized survey are... [to full text]

國人人口結構逐漸老齡化、提早退休、平均餘命延後、長壽風險等多重趨勢下，國人愈重視相關金融理財保險概念以及相關退休規劃等。而國內目前主要勞工保險體系則包含勞工保險、勞保退休金制度、國民年金保險等，而本研究主要欲探討商業保險能否補充勞工保險體系可能給付內容不足地方，以強化台灣勞工老年經濟安全。具體之研究目的包括探討現行台灣勞工相關保險與商業年金保險在制度及內容本質有哪些主要的差異性。其次，分析現行台灣勞工保險體制有哪些可能缺漏。最後，探討商業保險業在因應現行台灣勞工保險體制下之未來發展方向及趨勢為何。在研究方法方面，本研究主要擬針對不同資產層級一般大眾進行實地訪談，搭配文獻資料分析法，結論如下： 1、 勞工保險體制未臻完整得加強活絡現行保險運作機制加以解決 2、 現行勞保體制下，商業保險成為重要補充性保險，並隨著收入情形有不同層面之考量 3、 社會保險制度未來可考量依不同收入階層發展相關配套措施 4、 勞退新制修法草案中的勞工自選平台應有相關配套做法 5、 聯合政府、企業、及民間法人力量等共同推動民眾投入退休生活規劃之完整性 / Facing multiple trends of gradually aging population structure, early retirement, the average life delayed, and longevity risk, more people pay attention to the concept of insurance and related financial plan related to retirement planning. There are labor insurance, labor pension, the national pension insurance, as well as national health insurance that provide social protection for occupation injuries/diseases, old age, health care needs, to name a few. But current social protection may be inadequate to guard against all kinds of life risks. Therefore this study is to investigate the general public perception and expectations toward the current social insurance system. The main objectives of the thesis are as follows: 1. What is the difference between domestic labor insurance and commercial insurance? 2. Analyze the deficiencies of the labor insurance, labor pension, national pension insurance. 3. How does the commercial insurance address the deficiencies of the domestic labor insurance system? 4. Explore the future development or the trend of commercial insurance under the current labor insurance system? The study takes in-depth interviews with the general public of different assets levels. Literature reviews are conducted to explore the proper role that the commercial insurance can play and function given the domestic labor insurance system. Conclusions are as follows: 1. The labor insurance system was not complete and needs to further strengthen and activate the current insurance operation mechanism 2. The commercial insurance has become an important supplementary insurance under the current labor system, and its function differs to people with different levels of income. 3. The social insurance could be reconsidered according to different income groups to develop schemes to meet their needs. 4. Labor pension scheme offers voluntary options that need more policy attention and support.. 5. The collaboration of government, business, and foundations to make retirement planning as priority in people’s life.

<p>Pension fund companies manage and invest large amounts of money on behalf of their members. In return for their contributions, members expect a benefit at termination of their contract. Due to the volatile nature of returns that pension funds attain, pension companies started attaching a minimum guaranteed amount to member&rsquo / s benefits. In this mini-thesis we look at the pioneering work of Brennan and Schwartz [10] for pricing these minimum guarantees. The model they developed prices these minimum guarantees using option pricing theory. We also look at the model proposed by Deelstra et al. which prices minimum guarantees in a stochastic financial setting. We conclude this mini-thesis with new contributions where we look at simple alternative ways of pricing minimum guarantees. We conclude this mini-thesis with an approach, related to the work of Brennan and Schwartz [10], whereby the member&rsquo / s benefit is maximised for a given minimum guaranteed amount, which comprises of multi-period guarantees. We formulate a method to find the optimal stream of these multi-period guarantees.</p>

Magister Scientiae - MSc / Pension fund companies manage and invest large amounts of money on behalf of their members. In return for their contributions, members expect a benefit at termination of their contract. Due to the volatile nature of returns that pension funds attain, pension companies started attaching a minimum guaranteed amount to member&rsquo;s benefits. In this mini-thesis we look at the pioneering work of Brennan and Schwartz [10] for pricing these minimum guarantees. The model they developed prices these minimum guarantees using option pricing theory. We also look at the model proposed by Deelstra et al. which prices minimum guarantees in a stochastic financial setting. We conclude this mini-thesis with new contributions where we look at simple alternative ways of pricing minimum guarantees. We conclude this mini-thesis with an approach, related to the work of Brennan and Schwartz [10], whereby the member&rsquo;s benefit is maximised for a given minimum guaranteed amount, which comprises of multi-period guarantees. We formulate a method to find the optimal stream of these multi-period guarantees. / South Africa

The main aim of this diploma thesis is to provide a paradigmatic view on the future development of the pension system in Czech Republic within the environment of the system dynamics. This objective incorporates the goal of creating a dynamic model that will sufficiently informative and includes the key aspects, both the current and the future form of the pension system (PS) in Czech Republic. The results of the current form of PS conclude that under the presumption of slightly unfavourable demographic development and constancy of PS is the system unsustainable. The model also points out the fact that the problem of PS could be solved through its partial adjustment. Under the assumption of gradually increasing pension tax rate, opposed with the real value of pension benefit and gradual pension age postponement up to 71 years. The results of the pension form post reformed analysis pension form are based on the assumption of intergenerational schism. That means different attitudes to the pension system reform. Pension system post reformed analysis results coincidently work with the fact that all people under 30 years (year 2009) will join the voluntary pension fund system. The current scenarios consider that the coming generation of working population will without exception enter this voluntary system. The older population (aged over 31 years) will not participate in the pension reform. Another common feature of the proposed scenarios is the fact that all individuals will join the capital pillar (the pension voluntary system) at the beginning of the year 2013. When comparing current and post reform form of the pension system a remarkable finding has arisen. The model of the post reform PS shows considerably worse results than is model of the current PS form.

The subject of the thesis is the analysis of the services that are offered within of the forthcoming pension reform in the Czech Republic, in order to find an optimal variant for the security of the citizens of the Czech Republic in the pensionable age.

This paper discusses on how to set fixed contributions for a given objective of a private pension plan, by using two traditional financial models such as annuities and perpetuities. The private pension plan has two components: (i) the contributions’ plan on a monthly basis (annuity), and (ii) the pension plan on a monthly basis (perpetuity). The document focuses on the relationship between the size to the contribution and the pension fund returns. The document covers the Peruvian case. / Este artículo discute cómo establecer los aportes fijos para un determinado objetivo de un plan de pensiones privado, mediante el uso de dos modelos financieros tradicionales como las anualidades y perpetuidades. El plan de pensiones privado tiene dos componentes: (i) el plan de aportes sobre una base mensual (anualidad), y (ii) el plan de pensiones sobre una base mensual (perpetuidad). El documento se centra en la relación entre el tamaño de la contribución y los rendimientos de los fondos de pensiones. Ello se concentrará específicamente en el caso peruano.