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Portfolio Opportunity Distributions (PODs) for the South African market : based on regulation requirementsNortje, Hester Maria 04 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this study Portfolio Opportunity Distributions (PODs) is applied as an alternative performance
evaluation method. Traditionally, Broad-Market Indices or peer group comparisons are used to
perform performance evaluation. These methods however have various biases and other problems
related to its use. These biases and problems include composition bias, classification bias,
concentration, etc. R.J. Surz (1994) introduced PODs in order to eliminate some of these
problems.
Each fund has its own opportunity set based on its style mandate and constraints. The style
mandate of the fund is determined by calculating the fund’s exposure to the nine Surz Style Indices
through the use of Returns-Based Style Analysis (RBSA). The indices are created based on the
style proposed by R.J. Surz (1994). Some adjustments were made to incorporate the unique
nature of the South African equity market. The combination of the fund’s exposures to the indices
best explains the return that the fund generated. In this paper the fund’s constraints are based on
the regulation requirements imposed on the funds in South Africa by the Collective Investment
Schemes Control Act No. 45 of 2002 (CISCA).
Thousands of random portfolios are then generated based on the fund’s opportunity set. The return
and risk of the simulated portfolios represent the possible investment outcomes that the manager
could have achieved given its opportunity set. Together the return and risk of the simulated
portfolios represent a range of possible outcomes against which the performance of the fund is
compared. It is also possible to determine the skill of the manager since it can be concluded that a manager
who consistently outperforms most of the simulated portfolios shows skill in selecting shares to be
included in the portfolio and assigning the correct weights to these shares.
The South African Rand depreciated quite a bit during the period under evaluation and therefore
funds invested large portions of their assets in foreign investments. These investments mostly
yielded very high or very low returns compared to the returns available in the domestic equity
market which impacted the application of PODs. Although the PODs methodology shows great
potential, it is impossible to conclude with certainty whether the PODs methodology is superior to
the traditional methods based on the current data. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word Portefeulje Geleentheids Verdelings (“PODs”) bekendgestel as ‘n
alternatiewe manier om die obrengste van bestuurders te evalueer. Gewoonlik word indekse en die
vergelyking van die fonds met soortgelyke fondse gebruik om fondse te evalueer. Die metodes het
egter verskeie probleme wat met die gebruik daarvan verband hou. Die probleme sluit onder
andere in: die samestelling en klassifikasie van soortgelyke fondse, die konsentrasie in die mark,
ens. R.J. Surz (1994) het dus Portefeulje Geleentheids Verdelings (“PODs”) bekendgestel in ‘n
poging om sommige van die probeleme te elimineer.
Elke fonds het sy eie unieke geleentheids versameling wat gebaseer is op die fonds se styl en
enige beperkings wat op die fonds van toepassing is. Die fonds se styl word bepaal deur die fonds
se blootstelling aan die nege Surz Styl Indekse te meet met behulp van opbrengs-gebaseerde styl
analise (“RBSA”). Die indekse is geskep gebaseer op die metode wat deur R.J. Surz (1994)
voorgestel is. Daar is egter aanpassings gemaak om die unieke aard van die Suid-Afrikaanse
aandele mark in ag te neem. Die kombinasie van die fonds se blootstelling aan die indekse
verduidelik waar die fonds se opbrengs vandaan kom. In die navorsingstuk is die beperkings wat
van toepassing is op die fonds afkomstig uit die regulasie vereistes wat deur die “Collective
Investment Schemes Control Act No. 45 of 2002 (CISCA)” in Suid-Afrika op fondse van
toepassing is. Duisende ewekansige portefeuljes word dan gegenereer gebaseer op die fonds se unieke groep
aandele waarin die fonds kan belê. Die opbrengs en risiko van die gesimuleerde portefeuljes
verteenwoordig al die moontlike beleggings uitkomste wat die fonds bestuurder kon gegenereer
het gegewe die fonds se unieke groep aandele waarin dit kon belê. Die opbrengs en risiko van al
die gesimuleerde portefeuljes skep saam ‘n verdeling van moontlike beleggings uitkomste
waarteen die opbrengs en risiko van die fonds vergelyk word.
Hierdie proses maak dit moontlik om die fonds bestuurder se vermoë om beter as meeste van die
gesimuleerde portefeuljes te presteer te bepaal. Die aanname kan gemaak word dat ‘n bestuurder
wat konsekwent oor tyd beter as meeste van die gesimuleerde portefeuljes presteer oor die
vermoë beskik om die regte aandele te kies om in die portefeulje in te sluit en ook die regte
gewigte aan die aandele toe te ken.
Die Suid-Afrikaanse Rand het heelwat gedepresieer tydens die evaluasie periode en daarom het
fondse groot porsies van hul beleggings oorsee belê. Die beleggings het dus of heelwat groter of
heelwat kleiner opbrengste gehad in vergelyking met die opbrengste beskikbaar in die plaaslike
aandelemark en dit het die toepassing van PODs beïnvloed. PODs toon baie potential, maar dit is
egter onmoontlik om met die huidige data stel vas te stel of dit ‘n beter metode is.
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The effect of foreign portfolio investment on economic growth in South AfricaMpofu, Melusi 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / Based on quarterly data for the period 1985 to 2012, this study analyses the effect of Foreign Portfolio Investment on the growth of the South African economy. In order to support the country’s economic growth, South Africa needs foreign capital in the form of foreign capital flows and these include both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. Given the low national savings rate in South Africa, foreign portfolio inflows play an important role in the sustenance of higher levels of investment and growth. The study employed the Johansen Cointegration technique to analyse the long-run relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model for the short-term interaction between variables. The long-run results illustrated that there is a negative relationship between Gross Domestic Product and foreign portfolio investment. However in the short run the results indicate a positive relationship between foreign portfolio investment and gross domestic product. These results are supported by the Granger causality test which shows that foreign portfolio investment Granger causes Gross domestic product. The findings from the study suggest that authorities should take advantage of foreign portfolio investment in the short run. However the results also suggest that foreign direct investment is another important source of capital in the long term.
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Allocation stratégique d'actifs et ALM pour les régimes de retraiteFaleh, Alaeddine 13 May 2011 (has links) (PDF)
La présente thèse s'intéresse aux modèles d'allocation stratégiques d'actifs et à leurs applications pour la gestion des réserves financières des régimes de retraite par répartition, en particulier ceux partiellement provisionnés. L'étude de l'utilité des réserves pour un système par répartition et a fortiori de leur gestion reste un sujet peu exploré. Les hypothèses classiques sont parfois jugées trop restrictives pour décrire l'évolution complexe des réserves. De nouveaux modèles et de nouveaux résultats sont développés à trois niveaux : la génération de scénarios économiques (GSE), les techniques d'optimisation numérique et le choix de l'allocation stratégique optimale dans un contexte de gestion actif-passif (ALM). Dans le cadre de la génération de scénarios économiques et financiers, certains indicateurs de mesure de performance du GSE ont été étudiés. Par ailleurs, des améliorations par rapport à ce qui se pratique usuellement lors de la construction du GSE ont été apportées, notamment au niveau du choix de la matrice de corrélation entre les variables modélisées. Concernant le calibrage du GSE, un ensemble d'outils permettant l'estimation de ses différents paramètres a été présenté. Cette thèse a également accordé une attention particulière aux techniques numériques de recherche de l'optimum, qui demeurent des questions essentielles pour la mise en place d'un modèle d'allocation. Une réflexion sur un algorithme d'optimisation globale d'une fonction non convexe et bruitée a été développée. L'algorithme permet de moduler facilement, au moyen de deux paramètres, la réitération de tirages dans un voisinage des points solutions découverts, ou à l'inverse l'exploration de la fonction dans des zones encore peu explorées. Nous présentons ensuite des techniques novatrices d'ALM basées sur la programmation stochastique. Leur application a été développée pour le choix de l'allocation stratégique d'actifs des régimes de retraite par répartition partiellement provisionnés. Une nouvelle méthodologie pour la génération de l'arbre des scénarios a été adoptée à ce niveau. Enfin, une étude comparative du modèle d'ALM développé avec celui basé sur la stratégie Fixed-Mix a été effectuée. Différents tests de sensibilité ont été par ailleurs mis en place pour mesurer l'impact du changement de certaines variables clés d'entrée sur les résultats produits par notre modèle d'ALM.
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A Prioritization Model for Investments : A Case Study at Volvo Group Trucks OperationsJansson, Victor January 2019 (has links)
Volvo’s plant in Umeå has a constant need for development, where to start new activities like projects and investments are important tools, where the competition on the market is increasing. The need for investments are major compared to the resources available, both in terms of human resources and economic resources. The plant needs to prioritize trying to choose what kind of investments are the best for the plant’s future. The problem is that there is a lack of reliable priority model for investments that consider several different parameters. To solve this issue the goal is to create a useful model that can work as a tool to prioritize projects and investments in an appropriate and reliable way. The study began with a literature review to make the researcher approach the subject and gather the knowledge needed for this study. After this, qualitative semi-structured interviews were made with different managers at the plant, to acquire their expertise and knowledge regarding the selection of criteria and their preferences of how the model should work. The next step was to analyze the old model used at the plant, its strengths, and weaknesses. At the same time, constant discussions were held with the supervisor and his manager but as well with the university, mainly through seminars. When the researcher felt he was ready he started to create the new model. There were 30 criteria included in the model, mainly collected through interviews. The large number of criteria collected were sorted into Volvo’s catchwords SQDCEP (Safety, Quality, Delivery, Cost, Environmental, People). These were decided to function as the main criteria in the model, and all the 30 criteria were called sub-criteria. The model itself originates from a process called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It is an established and wellknown methodology to make prioritizations. Its main idea is to compare every single project against each other which makes the method very thoughtful, solid and probably better than other ones. The conclusion is that the model is complete and should work perfectly to be used for Volvo and other companies in the complex manufacturing industry. Furthermore, the criteria chosen for the model should also be applicable for other similar companies to Volvo, as the criteria are not unique.
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Seleção dinâmica de portfólios em média-variância com saltos Markovianos. / Dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection with Markov regime switching.Araujo, Michael Viriato 19 October 2007 (has links)
Investiga-se, em tempo discreto, o problema multi-período de otimização de carteiras generalizado em média-variância cujos coeficientes de mercado são modulados por uma cadeia de Markov finita. O problema multi-período generalizado de média-variância com saltos Markovianos (PGMV ) é um problema de controle estocástico sem restrição cuja função objetivo consiste na maximização da soma ponderada ao longo do tempo da combinação linear de três elementos: o valor esperado da riqueza do investidor, o quadrado da esperança desta riqueza e a esperança do quadrado deste patrimônio. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é a derivação analítica de condições necessárias e suficientes para a determinação de uma estratégia ótima de investimento para o problema PGMV . A partir deste modelo são derivadas várias formulações de médiavariância, como o modelo tradicional cujo objetivo é maximizar o valor esperado da riqueza final do investidor, dado um nível de risco (variância) do portfólio no horizonte de investimento, bem como o modelo mais complexo que busca maximizar a soma ponderada das esperanças da riqueza ao longo do tempo, limitando a perda deste patrimônio em qualquer momento. Adicionalmente, derivam-se formas fechadas para a solução dos problemas citados quando as restrições incidem somente no instante final. Outra contribuição deste trabalho é a extensão do modelo PGMV para a solução do problema de seleção de carteiras em média-variância com o objetivo de superar um benchmark estocástico, com restrições sobre o valor esperado ou sobre a variância do tracking error do portfólio. Por fim, aplicam-se os resultados obtidos em exemplos numéricos cujo universo de investimento são todas as ações do IBOVESPA. / In this work we deal with a discrete-time multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection model with the market parameters subject to Markov regime switching. The multi-period generalized mean-variance portfolio selection model with regime switching (PGMV ) is an unrestricted stochastic control problem, in which the objective function involves the maximization of the weighted sum of a linear combination of three parts: the expected wealth, the square of the expected wealth and the expected value of the wealth squared. The main contribution of this work is the analytical derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy to this PGMV model. We show that several mean-variance models are derived from the PGMV model, as the traditional formulation in which the objective is to maximize the expected terminal wealth for a given final risk (variance), or the complex one in which the objective function is to maximize the weighted sum of the wealth throughout its investment horizon, with control over maximum wealth lost. Additionally, we derive closed forms solutions for the above models when the restrictions are just in the final time. Another contribution of this work is to extend the PGMV model to solve the multi-period portfolio selection problem of beating a stochastic benchmark with control over the tracking error variance or its expected value. Finally, we run numerical examples in which the investment universe is formed by all the stocks belonging to the IBOVESPA.
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Gestão de portfólio de serviços de MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) aeronáutico: uma pesquisa ação / Portfolio management service MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) aircraft: an action researchRoque, Luiz Gabriel Rossi 14 September 2012 (has links)
Os centros de manutenção de aeronaves da América Latina possuem portfólios de serviços limitados e esse é um fator que restringe o crescimento do transporte aéreo na região. Faz-se necessário, portanto, o desenvolvimento de novos serviços de reparo de aeronaves e seus componentes nesses centros. Apesar de o Desenvolvimento de Produtos ter recebido uma atenção substancial na ultima década, há pouca literatura sobre o Desenvolvimento de Serviços e trabalhos que tratam de gestão de portfólio de serviços são ainda mais escassos. A pouca literatura existente não é suficientemente abrangente para tratar da gestão de portfólio de serviços de manutenção complexa. O objetivo deste trabalho é, portanto, desenvolver um processo de gestão de portfólio de serviços para empresas de manutenção aeronáutica, chamado de modelo específico. O desenvolvimento do modelo será feito utilizando a pesquisa-ação, abordagem que objetiva tanto a tomada de ação quanto a criação de conhecimento com ciclos contínuos. Durante a criação do modelo específico foram usados como base de conhecimento modelos de referência de PDP e PDS, posteriormente adaptados para a realidade de serviços, para a região e tipologia da indústria. A pesquisa ação se iniciou numa pré-fase de contextualização, seguida por quatro ciclos, sendo que em cada ciclo uma etapa do modelo foi desenvolvida e avaliada, resultando em um modelo especifico de gestão de portfólio para indústria de MRO aeronáutico brasileiro. Ao final dos ciclos foi feita uma avaliação do processo criada por meio de um questionário. Os participantes da pesquisa avaliaram o método de desenvolvimento do modelo como adequado e avaliaram também o próprio modelo como adequado. / The aircraft maintenance centers in Latin America have limited portfolios of services; this is a factor that restricts the growth of air transport in the region. Therefore is necessary to develop new maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for aircraft and their components in those centers. New Product Development (NPD) process theory has received substantial attention in the last decade but there is little literature on the New Services Development (NSD), and papers dealing directly with services portfolio management are even scarcer. The existing literature is not holistic enough to deal with maintenance services portfolio management. Therefore this paper aims to develop a services portfolio management (SPM) for aircraft components maintenance. The SPM model development will be done using the action research approach trough the creation of knowledge in continuous PDCA cycles. During the creation of the specific model, were used as knowledge base reference models of PDP and PDS, later adapted to the reality of services to the region and type of industry. The action research began in pre contextualization phase, followed by four cycles, and each cycle a stage of the model was developed and evaluated, resulting in a specific model of portfolio management for MRO Brazilian aeronautics industry. At the end of cycles an evaluation process created by means of a questionnaire. Survey participants rated the method as proper development of the model, the model itself also rated as adequate.
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Inovação tecnológica em multinacionais brasileiras: estudo multicaso sobre gestão do portfólio de projetos de novos produtos / Technology innovation in Brazilian multinationals: multicase study on new product portfolio managementMata, Rogério Souza da 17 March 2008 (has links)
Esta pesquisa investigou quatro empresas multinacionais brasileiras em busca de suas práticas na gestão do portfólio de projetos de novos produtos. Por meio de um estudo multicaso, a pesquisa abrangeu diversos aspectos dessa gestão, tais como estratégia para novos produtos e tecnologias; mecanismos de identificação de oportunidades e fontes de idéias para novos produtos; estrutura e recursos de engenharia e P&D; técnicas preferidas para análise, seleção e priorização de projetos; mecanismos de acompanhamento no desenvolvimento dos novos produtos e revisão do portfólio. Um conjunto de práticas de gestão foi identificado e comparado a quatro modelos teóricos, o que levou à conclusão que as empresas gerenciam seu portfólio de forma heterogênea. Mesmo assim, tais práticas produzem como resultado final uma importante vantagem competitiva e podem auxiliar outras empresas na busca pela excelência na gestão da inovação por meio da gestão do seu portfólio de projetos de novos produtos. Ainda que não seja possível generalizar as conclusões acerca dos casos, os resultados apontam diversas intersecções entre as práticas encontradas nas empresas e os modelos teóricos, convergindo para um conjunto comum de práticas gerenciais que podem favorecer o desempenho de outras organizações, além de contribuir com subsídios para futuras pesquisas. / This research has investigated four Brazilian multinational companies looking for their most used practices in managing their portfolio of new product projects. To accomplish this goal, a multi-case study was undertaken. Several aspects of the new products portfolio management were explored, such as product innovation strategy; R&D structure and resources; opportunities seizing mechanisms and sources for new product ideas; preferred project evaluation and selection techniques; decision makers\' preferences and profiles; new product development measures and portfolio periodic revision. Based on this investigation, a set of practices was identified and compared to four theoretical models. It was found that the companies manage their portfolio in heterogeneous ways. However, such practices contribute to the overall innovation in the companies and produce a substantial competitive advantage. Indeed, such practices can also help other companies in achieving new products portfolio management excellence. Although the conclusions that followed through can not be generalized to a management model, the results can substantially aid other companies in leveraging their portfolio management performance and also be a relevant contribution for future research.
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Gestão de portfólio de projetos de inovação: análise das práticas adotadas por empresas industriais de grande porte. / Innovation project portfolio management: analysis of the practices adopted by large industrial companies.Silva, Débora Oliveira da 08 June 2016 (has links)
Empresas que se propõem a inovar de modo sistemático, além dos desafios da gestão individual dos projetos, precisam lidar com a gestão agregada dos projetos, ou seja, precisam lidar com a gestão de portfólios de projetos de inovação. O principal desafio da gestão de portfólio é a etapa de seleção de projetos, na qual a empresa precisa decidir, entre uma cesta de possibilidades, quais ideias receberão recursos e serão incluídas no portfólio de projetos da empresa para serem desenvolvidas. Além disso, há necessidade de balanceamento do portfólio, ou seja, qual grupo (ou portfólio) de projetos melhor adere aos interesses da organização. Em um esforço para evidenciar as diferenças entre portfólios de projetos de inovação e portfólios de projetos convencionais diversos autores se dedicaram a caracterizar e desenvolver abordagens gerenciais para estes. Entre as principais diferenças entre projetos convencionais e projetos de inovação está o nível de incerteza inerente aos projetos, o que dificulta a utilização de ferramentas tradicionais de valoração financeira. A presente pesquisa pretende contribuir com a compreensão da especificidade da gestão de portfólio de projetos de inovação, destacando o impacto da incerteza na avaliação e gestão desse portfólio. A literatura aponta questões sobre seleção e balanceamento, mas pouco diz sobre os problemas de considerar projetos de natureza distinta no mesmo portfólio. Nesse sentido, essa pesquisa buscou compreender a segmentação de um portfólio geral em portfólios específicos; captar quais as ferramentas utilizadas para gestão de portfólio de projetos de inovação; bem como analisar as lacunas existentes entre os problemas derivados da incerteza dos projetos previstos pela literatura e os encontrados para a gestão desse processo. A pesquisa foi conduzida por uma abordagem predominantemente indutiva, por meio de três fases distintas, porém complementares: (i) estudo do tipo levantamento, (ii) estudo de casos múltiplos; (iii) estudo de caso profundo. Os resultados sugerem que a separação do portfólio de projetos de inovação segundo o grau de incerteza dos projetos traz benefícios para gestão desse processo, especialmente no tocante a proteção de inovações de maior ruptura. Em relação às ferramentas utilizadas pelas empresas, contrariamente ao que sugere a literatura, as mais utilizadas são as ferramentas financeiras, inclusive para projetos de inovação radical e para as fases de balanceamento do portfólio. Isso sugere desconhecimento dos gestores acerca das práticas mais adequadas para gestão desse processo. Adicionalmente, verificou-se que aspectos que não estão diretamente ligados ao processo de gestão de portfólio de inovação tem grande influência sobre os resultados desse, como o sistema de recompensas das áreas. / Companies that intend to innovate in a systematic way, in addition to the challenges of individual management of projects, have to deal with the aggregate project management, that is have to deal with the management of portfolios of innovation projects. The main challenge of portfolio management is the project selection stage, in which the company needs to decide between a basket of possibilities, ideas that will receive resources and will be included in the company projects portfolio to be develop. Furthermore, there is a need for balancing the portfolio; it is which projects group (or portfolio) better adheres to the organization\'s interests. In an effort to highlight the differences between portfolios of innovation projects and portfolios of conventional projects, several authors have dedicated themselves to characterize and develop management approaches to these. Among the main differences between conventional projects and innovation projects is the level of uncertainty inherent in the project, making it difficult to use traditional tools of financial valuation. This research aims to contribute to the understanding of the specificity of the portfolio management of innovation projects, highlighting the impact of uncertainty in the evaluation and management of this portfolio. The literature suggests questions about selection and balancing, but says little about the issues of considering different nature of projects in the same portfolio. In this sense, this research sought to understand the segmentation of a general portfolio in specific portfolios; to capture which are the tools used for portfolio management of innovation projects; as well as to analyze the gaps between the problems arising from the uncertainty of the projects provided by the literature and found to manage this process. The research was conducted by a predominantly inductive approach through three distinct phases, but complementary: (i) survey study, (ii) multiple case study; (Iii) in-depth case study. The results suggest that the separation of the portfolio of innovation projects according to the degree of uncertainty of the project brings benefits to managing this process, especially regarding the protection of higher disruptive innovations. In relation to the tools used by companies, contrary to what the literature suggests, the most used are the financial tools, including radical innovation projects and for portfolio balancing phases. This suggests lack of managers\' knowledge about the best practices to manage this process. In addition, it was found that aspects that are not directly linked to the innovation portfolio management process have great influence on the results of it, as the reward system of areas.
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Gestão do acesso ao conhecimento externo em administradoras de carteira de investimentos imobiliários: estudo de casos / MANAGEMENT OF EXTERNAL KNOWLEDGE ACCESS IN REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT UNITS: STUDY CASESAndrade, Marcelo Machado Teixeira de 18 March 2008 (has links)
Nesta tese, examina-se como se dá a gestão do acesso ao conhecimento externo em duas administradoras de carteira de investimentos imobiliários: a gerência de investimentos imobiliários de um fundo de pensão (a Fundação CESP) e a divisão de locação e administração de imóveis de um grupo imobiliário (o grupo Lello). A base de conhecimentos externos dessas unidades é dispersa e privada, características típicas do mercado imobiliário que dificultam o acesso ao conhecimento externo e, por conseguinte, a sua gestão. Para apoiar o estudo, foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica nos campos teóricos da gestão do conhecimento, da gestão de carteira de investimentos imobiliários e das competências organizacionais e individuais. O método de pesquisa utilizado foi o estudo de casos. As unidades estudadas foram escolhidas intencionalmente, levando-se em conta seus formatos de negócio distintos, que permitiram ampliar o conhecimento sobre administradoras de carteira imobiliária. Os dados primários foram coletados através de entrevistas semi-estruturadas, cujos roteiros foram testados previamente em duas outras empresas imobiliárias. Baseado na revisão bibliográfica, foi elaborado um modelo conceitual e gráfico da gestão do conhecimento com foco no acesso ao conhecimento externo. Um dos processos incluídos no modelo foi o armazenamento externo de conhecimentos. Sem menção explícita na literatura pesquisada, tal processo foi observado nos casos estudados. Os \"armazéns\" externos caracterizados nos casos - importantes fontes de conhecimentos atuais ou potenciais - são as redes de contatos devidamente mapeadas, as parcerias estáveis e as comunidades de prática que extrapolam as fronteiras organizacionais. Em ambas as unidades, os conhecimentos críticos do negócio não são identificados explicitamente, fazendo com que parte desses conhecimentos acabem sendo gerenciados mais precariamente. A pesquisa mostrou que os relacionamentos informais - por exemplo, no caso da Gerência Imobiliária da Fundação CESP, com lojistas de shopping centers nos quais a fundação é cotista ou, no caso da divisão de locação e administração da Lello, com gestores imobiliários do mercado - são canais privilegiados de acesso ao conhecimento externo. Foram identificadas, nos casos estudados, boas práticas individuais e organizacionais associadas à manutenção e desenvolvimento desses canais. As principais conclusões da pesquisa são: (i) a gestão do acesso ao conhecimento externo nos casos estudados está associada de modo principal aos canais informais; (ii) há uma oportunidade de aumentar a qualidade e quantidade dos conhecimentos adquiridos através desses canais - \"potencializá-los\" - pela adoção de práticas estruturadas de gestão, em particular o mapeamento dos contatos relevantes da unidade, com a identificação dos conhecimentos críticos e suas fontes; (iii) a idéia de \"armazenamento externo de conhecimentos\" se ajusta aos casos estudados. / In this thesis we examine how management of external knowledge access takes place in two real estate portfolio management units: one pension fund\'s department of real estate investment (CESP Foundation), and the leasing and management division of a real estate group (Lello group). These units\' external knowledge base is private and dispersed, a typical characteristic of the real estate market that makes access to external knowledge, and, therefore, its management, harder. To support our study, we produced a literature review of the fields of knowledge management, real estate portfolio management, and both individual and organizational competences. Our method of choice was the case study. Researched units were intentionally chosen according to their different business formats, thus allowing a broadening of our knowledge about real estate portfolio management units. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, with a script that was previously tested in two real estate firms. Based on our literature review, we developed a graphic and conceptual model of knowledge management, focus on the access to external knowledge. One of the processes included in this model was the external storing of knowledge. While never explicitly mentioned in the reviewed literature, this process was observed in the researched cases. The indentified external \"storehouses\" - important sources of present or potential knowledge - are the carefully mapped contact networks, the stable partnerships and the communities of practice that run across organizational frontiers. In both units, business-critical knowledge is not explicitly identified, leading to a part of this knowledge being managed in a more precarious manner. Our research shows that informal relationships - for instance, in the case of Foundation CESP\'s real estate management department, relationships with shop owners in shopping malls in which the Foundation is a shareholder, or, in the case of the leasing and management division of Lello, with real estate managers in the market - are crucial channels for external knowledge. In both cases, good individual and organizational practices related to the retaining and development of such channels were identified. Our research\'s main conclusions are: (i) management of external knowledge access in the analyzed cases is associated mainly to informal channels; (ii) it should be possible to increase both the quantity and the quality of knowledge obtained through these channels - enhance them - by adopting structured management practices, particularly the mapping of contacts relevant to the unit, the identification of critical knowledge and its sources; (iii) the idea of external storing of knowledge applies to the cases in question.
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Value at Risk Models for a Nonlinear Hedged PortfolioLiu, Guochun 30 April 2004 (has links)
This thesis addresses some practical issues that are similar to what a risk manager would be facing. To protect portfolio against unexpected turbulent drop, risk managers might use options to hedge the portfolio. Since the price of an option is not a linear function of the price of the underlying security or index, consequently option hedged portfolio's value is a not linear combination of the market prices of the underlying securities. Three Value-at-Risk (VaR) models, traditional estimate based Monte Carlo model, GARCH based Monte Carlo model, and resampling model, are developed to estimate risk of non-linear portfolios. The results from the models by setting different levels of hedging strategies are useful to evaluate and compare these strategies, and therefore may assist risk managers in making practical decisions in risk management.
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