O objetivo desta pesquisa é investigar a adequação da Análise de Mercado Imobiliário AMI ao caso do município de São Paulo. Em particular, na análise do chamado mercado econômico de moradias 5 a 10 salários mínimos de renda familiar, segmento que é tido como possuidor de renda superior à necessária para ser enquadrado nos programas oficiais, mas insuficiente para adquirir moradia produzida pelo mercado formal. Como uma política imobiliária urbana poderia criar as condições para que estas famílias pudessem ser atendidas pelo mercado formal, em áreas mais centrais da cidade? Para responder a esta questão é necessário compreender a dinâmica residencial deste mercado econômico, tema em que a pesquisa acadêmica tem sido incipiente. A tese concentrou-se na mensuração da demanda disponível por categorias de renda, que foi cruzada com a oferta de moradias pelo mercado. Os resultados indicam para o município de São Paulo, um parcial ajuste no centro das duas curvas, em 2006, e um descolamento nas pontas, ou seja, há uma importante demanda não atendida para a categoria de renda de 5 a 10 salários mínimos e uma sobre-oferta para rendas superiores a 30 salários mínimos. Em 2007, a melhoria nas condições de crédito aumentou em 30% o valor médio dos imóveis financiados, resultando em um deslocamento vertical da curva de oferta e, conseqüentemente, uma diminuição da demanda não atendida pelo mercado econômico. Aparentemente o uso da AMI foi adequado à realidade paulistana. / The purpose of this research was to study whether Real Estate Market Analysis has been adequate to the case of the municipality of São Paulo housing market. Particularly, to focus on the so called low cost housing between 5 and 10 minimum wages family income. This segment is understood as having income that is superior to those in the governmental housing programs but that is not enough to afford buying a house in the formal market. How a Real Estate development policy could create conditions for those families to afford to buy a house close to the more central areas of the city? In order to answer this question, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of low cost housing a subject somehow neglected in academics. The Dissertation has focused on the measurement of housing demand curve for different income brackets and comparing it with the housing supply curve. The results for São Paulo, for the year of 2006, indicated a partial alignment of the curves and a separation between them at the edges. It means that there is an important non-attended demand for the 5 to 10 minimum wages income bracket, and on the other hand, an over supply of housing for families with income over 30 minimum wages. For 2007, better credit terms resulted in 30 % increase in housing financing, shifting upwards the supply curve and, therefore, decreasing low cost housing demand. Real Estate Market Analysis seemed to be adequate for analyzing the São Paulo market.

China’s economy has experienced a spectacular growth and achieved a remarkable success over the past three decades. Opportunities created by the striking economic growth have led China’s most important investment markets, real estate and stock markets to undertake an enormous transformation and development. This paper is concentrated on examining the relationship between the returns on Chinese real estate and stock markets. In particular, the paper attempts to investigate whether the returns are correlated between them, and to explore the potential diversification effects on creating a balanced portfolio including both real estate and stock assets. The empirical study is conducted on the basis of monthly data collected from year 2005 to 2010. Statistical tests are applied to measure the magnitude of return correlations between Chinese real estate and stock markets. The results of the empirical study indicate that the monthly returns on Chinese real estate and stock markets are not correlated. And when investing in China’s capital markets, diversification benefits could be achieved by creating a balanced portfolio including both real estate and stock assets. Keywords: Return Correlation; Diversification Benefit; Chinese Real Estate market; Chinese Stock Market

Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent. This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time. The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market. / Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid. Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur. Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.

As the two main components of household portfolios, stocks and real estate are likely to catch people¡¦s attention. Although the number of extant studies on the interaction between the stock and real estate markets is large, the views and empirical evidence in those studies show inconsistent results. This dissertation provides an explanation for the inconsistent results: market imperfection. Employing the threshold vector error correction model to examine the interaction between Taiwan¡¦s stock and real estate markets during the period from 1973Q2 to 2009Q4, the empirical results support this explanation. When the transaction benefit from the disequilibrium between the stock and real estate markets can cover the potential cost resulting from market imperfection, the relationship between the stock and real estate markets is integrated; but when there is slight disequilibrium, the price of real estate will not converge since the arbitrage benefit cannot cover the cost of transaction. As a result, the relationship is segmented. The empirical results of the study are very robust as similar conclusions result when different proxies for housing prices are used. The interactions between the stock and the sub-region housing markets also show similar results. Finally, when macroeconomic factors are considered, the asymmetric dynamic relationship is still significant.

Abstract This paper to explore how policy changes affect real estate market in Beijing, to help readers understand how policy change to influence Beijing real estate market demand, the reader can understand the further development of Beijing real estate market, the paper is divided into three parts: the first is to explore the environment of Beijing real estate ; the second part of the real estate market in Beijing before the Olympics Games; the third part discuss the development of Beijing real estate market since Olympic Games , let readers understand the development and change of Beijing real estate market . Under the guidance of cancels the welfare lotteries policy , Beijing real estate market began to sprout, Beijing Olympic Games successful application, led to the rapid growth of Beijing real estate market, Beijing Government uses the reversion policy to regulates the supply and demand structure of market ,to guidance real estate market development, but was unable to suppress the house price effectively fast rising. The real estate has the characteristic which buys rises does not buy falls, before in 2008 Olympic Games, the people's anticipated house price will continue to rise, housing demand continues to expand, The market has the situation which falls short of demand¡FBut with the end of the 2008 Olympic Games, the "Olympic effect" gradually cooling down, the market return to a rational development , But with the end of the 2008 Olympic Games, the "Olympic effect" gradually cooling down, the market return to a rational development, people expect house prices to fall, resulting in a wait and see attitude ,Market oversupply occurs, the government resorted to liberal policies to stabilize the mortgage market. With the end of the Olympics, the Beijing government redrawing of the regional economic development, and actively promote the "era after the Beijing Olympics", In the future Beijing real estate development focus from the central area of the city gradually migrate outward circle, Function complete, facility perfect, convenient communications new town will become the new sales hot spot.

<p> </p><p>Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent.</p><p>This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time.</p><p>The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market.</p><p> </p> / <p> </p><p>Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid.</p><p>Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur.</p><p>Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.</p><p> </p>

Darbo tikslas – išanalizuoti gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinką ir įvertinti pagrindinius veiksnius veikiančius statybų kainas ir ištirti kokią įtaką daro atskiro regiono vystymasis. Tyrimo objektas - nekilnojamojo turto rinka Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, tiksliau daugiabučių namų rinką. Darbas susideda iš trijų dalių: teorinės, analitinės ir empirinės. Pirmiausia pateikiama teorinė informacija apie nekilnojamojo turto rinką – nekilnojamojo turto rinkos charakteristikos ir samprata. Antrame skyriuje analizuojami demografiniai, socialiniai ir ekonominiai veiksniai Lietuvoje, ir kokią įtaką daro nekilnojamojo turto rinkai. Paskutinėje dalyje analizuojami tie patys rodikliai Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, ir jų įtaka gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinkai (ar butų kainos nėra per aukštos, ar situacija rinkoje nejuda link kainų burbulo). / The objective of this paper is to analyze residential real estate market and to evaluate the main factors influencing construction prices of residential real estate, and also to investigate are prices depend on individual region economic growth tendencies. Research subject is the real estate market of Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, especially the tenement house market. The paper consists mainly of three parts: theoretical, analytical and empirical. Firstly, is provided theoretical information about real estate market - analysis and conception of real estate market and its characteristics. Then, in the second chapter, there is the analysis of demographical, social and economical factors in Lithuania, how they vary and influence the real estate market. Next is the study of main economic and social environment factors in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, and how they influence residential real estate market in these cities (are prices not too high or they are next to residential real estate price bubble). The research contains 52 pages. There are 13 tables and 11 diagrams.

Šio magistro darbo tema yra Šiaulių miesto nekilnojamojo turto rinkos analizė. Nekilnojamojo turto rinka yra ypač svarbus bet kurios šalies vidinės ir išorinės rinkos elementas, nuo kurio, kainų kitimo, priklauso ekonomikos pokyčiai. Šiame darbe nagrinėju nekilnojamojo turto vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste. Taip pat darbe nagrinėjama gyvenamojo būsto rinkos problematika: staigūs pokyčiai, šuolinis kainų ir paklausos didėjimas, pasiūlos mažėjimas, įvairūs veiksniai, įtakojantys gyvenamųjų patalpų rinką. Darbo tikslas – ištirti, išanalizuoti nekilnojamojo turto vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste, įtvirtinti analitinės dalies apžvalgą praktiniu ir anketiniu tyrimu, nustatyti nekilnojamo turto rinkos problemas bei pateikti siūlymus. Šiems tikslams įgyvendinti, iškelti tokie uždaviniai: išnagrinėti nekilnojamojo turto išorės veiksnių įtaką; aptarti ir išanalizuoti nekilnojamo turto sampratą ir vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste; pateikti išvadas ir pasiūlymus. Darbe nagrinėjama ne tik gyvenamojo būsto, žemės, komercinių patalpų rinka, nuomos ir pardavimo kainos, tačiau pateikiama ir Šiaulių miesto gyventojų anketinė apklausa, kurios metu išsiaiškinta žmonių nuomonė, dėl nekilnojamojo turto įsigijimo – pardavimo, bei sprendimus įtakojančius veiksnius. / Topic of this Master‘s Paper is analysis of Šiauliai City real estate market. Real estate market is an especially important internal and external market element of any country, the price changes of which predetermine economic changes. Aim of the paper is to research influence of external factors on the real estate markets, to analyse real estate development trends in Šiauliai City, to confirm analytical part review with practical and questioning survey, to disclose problems of the real estate market and to give suggestions. In order to attain the given aims, the following tasks have been set: to research influence of external factors on the real estate markets; to discuss and to analyse real estate concept and development trends in Šiauliai City; to give conclusions and suggestions. In the paper both residential, commercial premises, land market as well as rental and sale prices are analysed, questioning survey of Šiauliai City residents, disclosing the most popular real estate in Šiauliai City is given.

[pt] Esta tese analisa alguns aspectos do acordo de Basiléia III, proposto pelo Bank for International Settlements (BIS) e suas aplicações em três situações diferentes no mercado brasileiro. Em primeiro lugar, analisamos se duas das principais recomendações, requerimentos de capital e Stressed VaR, atenuariam os efeitos da crise pré-eleitoral brasileira em 2002, caso já estivessem vigentes neste passado recente. Inovamos ao propor o VIX como alternativa (Proxy) de volatilidade em situações de stress quando não há histórico disponível; ao modelar séries financeiras com SWGARCH e inovações alpha-estáveis (BRODA et al.,2013) e ao abordarmos o risco de mercado, simultaneamente, tanto via Indicadores Antecedentes - Early Warning, do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) - como via Requerimentos de Capital (BIS). Segundo, questionamos uma possível dicotomia no campo da regulação bancária, quando a regulação de risco de liquidez coexiste com o instituto do emprestador de última instância. Rebatemos esta suposta dicotomia e inovamos, tanto ao verificar que opções de compra sem vencimento podem proporcionar um complemento ou alternativa, teoricamente viável para os requisitos de capital; como ao evidenciar que o índice de liquidez agregada dos bancos brasileiros segue um passeio aleatório, o que implica um constante esforço em manter este índice em um nível seguro. Terceiro, ao avaliar um tipo de crise bem conhecida, inovamos ao propor que o risco de mercado imobiliário pode ser mitigado com opções reais, modeladas com mudança de regime de volatilidade dos preços imobiliários, simuladas a partir dos retornos mensais dos preços de venda constantes no índice FIPE-ZAP. / [en] This thesis analyzes some aspects of the Basel III Accord, from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and their applications on three different situations in the Brazilian market. First, we analyze whether two main recommendations, minimum capital requirements and the use of Stressed VaR, would mitigate the effects of the Brazilian pre-election crisis in 2002 if they were already implemented. We innovate in three situations: using the VIX as a volatility alternative (proxy) for stress scenarios when no historical data is available; modeling financial time series with SWGARCH and alpha-stable innovations (according to BRODA et al., 2013) and analyzing Market Risk with two approaches simultaneously: the Early Warning, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Capital Requirements (BIS). Second, we discuss a supposed dichotomy in banking regulation: the simultaneity of liquidity risk regulation versus the lender of last resort institute. We rebate this dichotomy and innovate both by demonstrating that perpetual call options may offer a theoretically feasible alternative or complement to capital requirements; and by identifying that the Brazilian liquidity index is a random walk process, meaning a constant effort to keep this index at a safer level. Third, focusing a well known kind of crisis, we innovate by evaluating if the real estate market risk could be mitigated with the development of abandon real options with volatility regime-switching risk, simulated from the monthly returns of the real estate selling prices listed in the FIPE-ZAP index.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to compare market prices with respect to the locations in European cities. Locations are divided to European capitals and European cities with smaller (limited) population. Selected real estates are predefined apartment and predefined family house which are the same for all locations. Subject of the literature review is the definition of basic concepts, introduction of the real estate market situation both from the Czech and European perspective and outline of the basic information on European Valuation Standards including their history. Before starting the thesis I established the methodical procedure consisting of selection of the location, i.e. analysis of the markets of individual European metropolises and cities with smaller (limited) population. For the research I chose 4 capitals and 4 cit ies with a population up to 100.000 in Germany, Great Britain, France and the Czech republic. I focused especially on comparison of market prices of the apartments between individual European capitals because an apartment is object of the business transactions more often than a family house. I compared the market prices of family houses only in the cities with smaller (limited) population. In conclusion I tried to clearly summarize the reasons for the price differences between the cities with emphasis on the economic force in individual countries.