Cost efficient operation and maintenance strategies are crucial for reducing cost of wind energy. Since the regime change from feed-in tariffs to an auction-based bidding system for capacity in most European wind projects, levelized cost of energy is challenged constantly. Therefore, new technologies such as new controllers are developed to improve operation and to increase profit. Previous research studies demonstrated the advantage of increased power output of wake redirection control. However, understanding and quantifying the impact of wind farm control technologies on operation and maintenance strategies is inevitable to evaluate the economic feasibility of such new technologies. Thus, an event-based O&M simulation tool has been developed. Besides general modules, such as the wind turbine model, the weather forecasting model and a model for simulating corrective and planned maintenance, the developed tool also takes wake effects into account. This allows considering different power productions for each individual turbine and a failure rate distribution within the wind farm which is based on altering loads on the different components. Both aspects are driven by changes in operation when applying a new controller technology. Exemplarily, the economic feasibility of a closed-loop active wake steering control has been analysed. Main achievements of this study are the possibility to quantify the impact of the active wake steering control on O&M related KPIs. Results show that additional loads caused by applying yaw-misalignment and redirecting wake, lead to an increase in OPEX. However, the achieved energy production gain and thus related additional revenue exceeds additional cost in the case study. Nonetheless, the study reveals that the profitability of the controller is highly dependent on the electricity price which can be acquired during the wind farm’s lifetime.

This report concerns the research, design, implementation and application of an airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction tool in the development of new, quieter airfoil for large-size wind turbine application. The tool is aimed at enabling comparative acoustic performance assessment of airfoils during the early development cycle of new blades and rotors for wind turbine applications. The ultimate goal is to enable the development of quieter wind turbines by the Wind Energy Industry. The task was accomplished by developing software that is simultaneously suitable for comparative design, computationally efficient and user-friendly. The tool was integrated into a state-of-the-art wind turbine design and analysis code that may be downloaded from the web, in compiled or source code form, under general public licensing, at no charge. During the development, an extensive review of the existing airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction models was accomplished, and the semi-empirical BPM model was selected and modified to cope with generic airfoil geometry. The intrinsic accuracy of the original noise prediction model was evaluated as well as its sensitivity to the turbulence length scale parameter, with restrictions imposed accordingly. The criterion allowed comparison of performance of both CFD-RANS and a hybrid solver (XFLR5) on the calculation of the turbulent boundary layer data, with the eventual adjustment and selection of the latter. After all the elements for assembling the method had been selected and the code specified, a collaboration project was made effective between Poli-USP and TU-Berlin, which allowed the seamless coupling of the new airfoil TE noise module, \"PNoise\", to the popular wind turbine design/analysis integrated environment, \"QBlade\". After implementation, the code calculation routines were thoroughly verified and then used in the development of a family of \"silent profiles\" with good relative acoustic and aerodynamic performance. The sample airfoil development study closed the initial design cycle of the new tool and illustrated its ability to fulfill the originally intended purpose of enabling the design of new, quieter blades and rotors for the advancement of the Wind Energy Industry with limited environmental footprint. / Este trabalho descreve a pesquisa de elementos iniciais, o projeto, a implantação e a aplicação de uma ferramenta de predição de ruído de bordo de fuga, no desenvolvimento de aerofólios mais silenciosos para turbinas eólicas de grande porte. O objetivo imediato da ferramenta é permitir a comparação de desempenho acústico relativo entre aerofólios no início do ciclo de projeto de novas pás e rotores de turbinas eólicas. O objetivo mais amplo é possibilitar o projeto de turbinas eólicas mais silenciosas, mas de desempenho aerodinâmico preservado, pela indústria da Energia Eólica. A consecução desses objetivos demandou o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta que reunisse, simultaneamente, resolução comparativa, eficiência computacional e interface amigável, devido à natureza iterativa do projeto preliminar de um novo rotor. A ferramenta foi integrada a um ambiente avançado de projeto e análise de turbinas eólicas, de código aberto, que pode ser livremente baixado na Web. Durante a pesquisa foi realizada uma ampla revisão dos modelos existentes para predição de ruído de bordo de fuga, com a seleção do modelo semi-empírico BPM, que foi modificado para lidar com geometrias genéricas. A precisão intrínseca do modelo original foi avaliada, assim como sua sensibilidade ao parâmetro de escala de turbulência transversal, com restrições sendo impostas a esse parâmetro em decorrência da análise. Esse critério permitiu a comparação de resultados de cálculo provenientes de método CFD-RANS e de método híbrido (XFLR5) de solução da camada limite turbulenta, com a escolha do último. Após a seleção de todos os elementos do método e especificação do código, uma parceria foi estabelecida entre a Poli-USP e a TU-Berlin, que permitiu a adição de um novo módulo de ruído de bordo de fuga, denominado \"PNoise\", ao ambiente de projeto e análise integrado de turbinas eólicas \"QBlade\". Após a adição, as rotinas de cálculo foram criteriosamente verificadas e, em seguida, aplicadas ao desenvolvimento de aerofólios mais silenciosos, com bons resultados acústicos e aerodinâmicos relativos a uma geometria de referência. Esse desenvolvimento ilustrou a capacidade da ferramenta de cumprir a missão para a qual foi inicialmente projetada, qual seja, permitir à Indústria desenvolver pás mais silenciosas que irão colaborar com o avanço da energia eólica através da limitação do seu impacto ambiental.

This report concerns the research, design, implementation and application of an airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction tool in the development of new, quieter airfoil for large-size wind turbine application. The tool is aimed at enabling comparative acoustic performance assessment of airfoils during the early development cycle of new blades and rotors for wind turbine applications. The ultimate goal is to enable the development of quieter wind turbines by the Wind Energy Industry. The task was accomplished by developing software that is simultaneously suitable for comparative design, computationally efficient and user-friendly. The tool was integrated into a state-of-the-art wind turbine design and analysis code that may be downloaded from the web, in compiled or source code form, under general public licensing, at no charge. During the development, an extensive review of the existing airfoil trailing-edge noise prediction models was accomplished, and the semi-empirical BPM model was selected and modified to cope with generic airfoil geometry. The intrinsic accuracy of the original noise prediction model was evaluated as well as its sensitivity to the turbulence length scale parameter, with restrictions imposed accordingly. The criterion allowed comparison of performance of both CFD-RANS and a hybrid solver (XFLR5) on the calculation of the turbulent boundary layer data, with the eventual adjustment and selection of the latter. After all the elements for assembling the method had been selected and the code specified, a collaboration project was made effective between Poli-USP and TU-Berlin, which allowed the seamless coupling of the new airfoil TE noise module, \"PNoise\", to the popular wind turbine design/analysis integrated environment, \"QBlade\". After implementation, the code calculation routines were thoroughly verified and then used in the development of a family of \"silent profiles\" with good relative acoustic and aerodynamic performance. The sample airfoil development study closed the initial design cycle of the new tool and illustrated its ability to fulfill the originally intended purpose of enabling the design of new, quieter blades and rotors for the advancement of the Wind Energy Industry with limited environmental footprint. / Este trabalho descreve a pesquisa de elementos iniciais, o projeto, a implantação e a aplicação de uma ferramenta de predição de ruído de bordo de fuga, no desenvolvimento de aerofólios mais silenciosos para turbinas eólicas de grande porte. O objetivo imediato da ferramenta é permitir a comparação de desempenho acústico relativo entre aerofólios no início do ciclo de projeto de novas pás e rotores de turbinas eólicas. O objetivo mais amplo é possibilitar o projeto de turbinas eólicas mais silenciosas, mas de desempenho aerodinâmico preservado, pela indústria da Energia Eólica. A consecução desses objetivos demandou o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta que reunisse, simultaneamente, resolução comparativa, eficiência computacional e interface amigável, devido à natureza iterativa do projeto preliminar de um novo rotor. A ferramenta foi integrada a um ambiente avançado de projeto e análise de turbinas eólicas, de código aberto, que pode ser livremente baixado na Web. Durante a pesquisa foi realizada uma ampla revisão dos modelos existentes para predição de ruído de bordo de fuga, com a seleção do modelo semi-empírico BPM, que foi modificado para lidar com geometrias genéricas. A precisão intrínseca do modelo original foi avaliada, assim como sua sensibilidade ao parâmetro de escala de turbulência transversal, com restrições sendo impostas a esse parâmetro em decorrência da análise. Esse critério permitiu a comparação de resultados de cálculo provenientes de método CFD-RANS e de método híbrido (XFLR5) de solução da camada limite turbulenta, com a escolha do último. Após a seleção de todos os elementos do método e especificação do código, uma parceria foi estabelecida entre a Poli-USP e a TU-Berlin, que permitiu a adição de um novo módulo de ruído de bordo de fuga, denominado \"PNoise\", ao ambiente de projeto e análise integrado de turbinas eólicas \"QBlade\". Após a adição, as rotinas de cálculo foram criteriosamente verificadas e, em seguida, aplicadas ao desenvolvimento de aerofólios mais silenciosos, com bons resultados acústicos e aerodinâmicos relativos a uma geometria de referência. Esse desenvolvimento ilustrou a capacidade da ferramenta de cumprir a missão para a qual foi inicialmente projetada, qual seja, permitir à Indústria desenvolver pás mais silenciosas que irão colaborar com o avanço da energia eólica através da limitação do seu impacto ambiental.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T16:41:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Milton Ernesto Barrios Aguilar 3.pdf: 9539969 bytes, checksum: 3ccd249e45fb24533b33236925ee74dc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-04 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The increase in wind power integration into power systems is currently a general trend in many countries and the Variable-Speed Wind Turbine (VSWT) Equipped with a Doubly Fed Induction Generator System with back-to-back power converters are most often used for this purpose. There is the need for its control system to operate properly to ensure stability and to achieve the desired performance when they are subjected to different transient disturbances, which is a difficult taste due to nonlinearities and strong coupling between electrical and mechanical variables in this type of wind turbine. In this context, this work aims to tune the gains of the PI controllers that make up the control system using a collective intelligence meta-heuristic algorithm for two normal perturbations in the operation of a wind farm: a wind variation and electrical fault. For that, it was modeled the wind turbine taking advantage of detailed modeling, considering the stator voltage oriented control structure, with active and reactive power control loops and their respective current controls, all equipped with PI controllers. Therefore, a set of objective functions was generated penalizing the most important variables directly from the dynamic simulation. Next, a multi-objective PSO algorithm has been enhanced, to be used as a tuning tool. Then the algorithm was applied to the VSWT for Single-machine infinite bus system for wind speed variation and electrical fault. Finally, the robustness of the tunings was tested on the in Single-machine infinite bus system and a 32 nodes feeder. The PSO showed good ability to exploitation and intensification of the search space reaching the preset tuning requirements in all cases. Stability and satisfactory performance results were obtained for transient disturbances thanks to key variables penalty in the objective functions. The tuning resulted robust enough for variations of feeder parameters and operating conditions besides the proper stiffness coefficient of the turbine generator mechanical coupling, whenever the wind turbine was subjected to disturbances considered in the tuning. It is also noted that exploring the objective functions and the algorithm itself can attain a large improvement in the performance of the tuned wind turbine control system for wind variations and electrical faults / O aumento da integração da geração eólica em sistemas elétricos de potência é atualmente uma tendência generalizada em muitos países e os Aerogeradores de Velocidade Variáveis (AVV) com Geradores de Indução de Dupla Alimentação (DFIG) com conversores de potência de tipo back-to-back são os mais empregados para este fim. Existe a necessidade de que seu sistema de controle atue corretamente para garantir a estabilidade e obter o desempenho desejado quando estes são submetidos a diferentes perturbações transitórias, o que resulta difícil devido às não-linearidades e à forte relação entre as grandezas elétricas e mecânicas deste tipo de aerogerador. Neste contexto, esta dissertação tem como objetivo a sintonia dos ganhos dos controladores PI que compõem o sistema de controle, utilizando um algoritmo meta-heurístico de inteligência coletiva, para duas perturbações normais na operação de uma usina eólica: variação de vento e falta elétrica. Para isso, foi modelado o DFIG aproveitando modelos detalhados, considerando a estrutura de controle orientada pela tensão do estator, com malhas de controle de potência ativa e reativa e seus respetivos controles de correntes, todas equipadas com controladores tipo PI. Logo foi gerado um conjunto de funções objetivos, penalizando diretamente das simulação dinâmica as variáveis de maior importância. A seguir, foi aprimorado um algoritmo PSO multi-objetivo, o qual é utilizado como ferramenta de sintonia. Em seguida, o algoritmo foi aplicado ao DFIG na configuração máquina barra-infinita para variação de vento e falta elétrica. Finalmente foi testada a robustez das sintonias obtidas no sistema de máquina barra-infinita e em um alimentador de 32 nós. O PSO apresentou uma boa capacidade de exploração e intensificação do espaço de busca alcançando os requisitos de sintonia preestabelecidos em todos os casos. Os resultados de estabilidade e desempenhos foram satisfatórios para as perturbações transitórias utilizadas graças à penalização de variáveis chaves nas funções objetivos. A sintonia resultou suficientemente robusta para variações de parâmetros do alimentador e de condições operativas, além do próprio coeficiente de rigidez do acoplamento mecânico turbina-gerador, sempre que a usina esteja submetida a perturbações consideradas na sintonia. Observa-se também que explorando as funções objetivo e o próprio algoritmo pode-se atingir uma ampla melhoria no desempenho do sistema de controle do DFIG sintonizado para as variações de vento e faltas elétricas. Palavras-chave: Geração Eólica, Aerogeradores

Le phénomène connu sous l'appellation "méandrement" (ou meandering) désigne les variations aléatoires de la trajectoire du sillage aérodynamique d'une éolienne. Ce phénomène est responsable de contraintes mécaniques particulières sur les éoliennes positionnées dans le sillage d'autres éoliennes et joue donc rôle dans la conception et dans la prévision de production des parcs éoliens.Ce travail propose d'étudier le méandrement par des moyens expérimentaux et numériques. La problématique est traitée en deux parties, la première portant sur la modélisation de l'écoulement de couche limite atmosphérique, avec une attention particulière portée à la modélisation des grandes échelles de la turbulence atmosphérique. La seconde partie porte sur l'étude du sillage d'un disque actuateur soumis à un écoulement atmosphérique. Chacune de ces parties comporte un volet expérimental et un volet numérique. La modélisation numérique instationnaire de l'écoulement atmosphérique fait intervenir une technique de génération stochastique de champs de vitesse turbulente avec évolution temporelle, spécialement développée au cours de la présente thèse et à laquelle un chapitre spécifique est dédié.L'un des principaux résultats est que le méandrement du sillage est fortement corrélé avec les grandes échelles de la turbulence atmosphérique. / The phenomenon known as meandering describes the unsteady trajectory variations of the wake of a wind turbine. This phenomenon is responsible for specific mechanical stresses on turbines positioned in the wake of other turbines. As such, this phenomenon must be accounted for in the design and operation of wind turbine plants.This work uses numerical fluid simulation and wind tunnel testing in order to study the meandering of the wake of a wind turbine. The subject is discussed in two parts. The first part discusses the modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer, with a focus on the large scales of the atmospheric turbulence. The second part is a study of the behavior of the wake of an actuator disc model in atmospheric wind conditions.Both parts include experimental and numerical work. The numerical simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer involves the generation of synthetic turbulent velocity time series by mean of a stochastic technique developed during this thesis, to which a chapter is dedicated.One of the main results of this work is that the meandering is highly correlated with the large scales of the atmospheric turbulence.

Ce mémoire présente les travaux réalisés en aérodynamique afin de pouvoir disposer d’une chaîne de conception complète nécessaire au traitement des différentes problématiques sur les pales éoliennes, qui ne peuvent être pris en compte à l’aide d’une méthode unique. Afin de pouvoir faire de l’optimisation de pales en fonction de différents critères, un outil numérique simplifié (VALDAG) a été développé. Le module de simulation utilise la méthode du Disque Actif Généralisé, qui s’appuie sur la résolution des équations Navier-Stokes, complété par des corrections empiriques. Il respecte un compromis entre la précision et le coût de calcul. Cet outil pour lequel une interface web a été développée pour le rendre adapté à des travaux d’ingénierie est susceptible de se calibrer automatiquement sur une nouvelle géométrie de pale grâce à la méthode Nelder-Mead Simplex. On peut ensuite réaliser une optimisation de la performance de la pale en modifiant cette géométrie, et générer les fichiers 3D qui serviront d’entrée à la simulation 3D et de visualisation des optimisations de forme. Ces designs optimisés sont ensuite validés par des simulations DNS à l’aide de l’outil NaSCar 3D développé à l’INRIA. Cet outil résout des équations Navier-Stokes sur un maillage cartésien 3D et prend en compte des obstacles immergés via la fonction Level-Set et la pénalisation. Après des adaptations sur le traitement de la géométrie de pales, un compromis de configuration CFD est trouvé pour simuler un rotor éolien. En conclusion, ce paquet d’outils VALDAG est peu coûteux, facile à utiliser et efficace. En associant VALDAG aux simulations 3D, une chaîne de conception est complétée. / This Ph.D. thesis presents some research work on aerodynamics of wind turbine blades, in order to dispose a conception chain necessary for different problems, which cannot be treated by one unique method. A simplified numerical toolkit (VALDAG) has been developed to optimize the performance of blades in different creteria. The simulation module use the Generalized Actuator Disc model, which relies on the solution of Navier-Stokes equations and completed with empiric corrections. This tool respects a reasonable compromise between model complexity and computational reliability. An automatic calibration mechanism was implemented using the Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm. A web users interface (WUI) is also available to adapt VALDAG for industrial engineers. Optimization is then carried on by modifying the blades’ geometry parameters and the designs optimized is stocked in files which can be used for 3D simulation and/or visualization. The blade designed with VALDAG are then simulated by a 3D numerical tool to validate previous predictions. This 3D tool called NaSCar 3D is developed in INRIA and resolve Navier-Stokes equations on to a cartesian mesh, in which the immersed obstacles are considered with the Level-Set function and the penalization method. After some necessary adaptation for the treatment of blades’ geometry, a compromise on CFD configuration is found to simulate a wind turbine rotor. To conclude, this design toolkit VALDAG is low time-costly, user-friendly and efficient. Associated with 3D simulations, a conception chain has been established.

Research into advanced wind turbine design has shown that load alleviation strategies like bend-twist coupled blades and coned rotors could reduce costs. However these strategies are based on nonlinear aero-structural dynamics providing additional benefits to components beyond the blades. These innovations will require Multi-disciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) to realize the full benefits. This research expands the MDO capabilities of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines. The early research explored the numerical stability properties of Blade Element Momentum (BEM) models. Then developed a provincial scale wind farm siting models to help engineers determine the optimal design parameters. The main focus of this research was to incorporate advanced analysis tools into an aero-elastic optimization framework. To adequately explore advanced designs with optimization, a new set of medium fidelity analysis tools is required. These tools need to resolve more of the physics than conventional tools like (BEM) models and linear beams, while being faster than high fidelity techniques like grid based computational fluid dynamics and shell and brick based finite element models. Nonlinear beam models based on Geometrically Exact Beam Theory (GEBT) and Variational Asymptotic Beam Section Analysis (VABS) can resolve the effects of flexible structures with anisotropic material properties. Lagrangian Vortex Dynamics (LVD) can resolve the aerodynamic effects of novel blade curvature. Initially this research focused on the structural optimization capabilities. First, it developed adjoint-based gradients for the coupled GEBT and VABS analysis. Second, it developed a composite lay-up parameterization scheme based on manufacturing processes. The most significant challenge was obtaining aero-elastic optimization solutions in the presence of erroneous gradients. The errors are due to poor convergence properties of conventional LVD. This thesis presents a new LVD formulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) that defines an objective convergence metric and analytic gradients. By adopting the same formulation used in structural models, this aerodynamic model can be solved simultaneously in aero-structural simulations. The FEM-based LVD model is affected by singularities, but there are strategies to overcome these problems. This research successfully demonstrates the FEM-based LVD model in aero-elastic design optimization. / Graduate / 0548 / pilot.mm@gmail.com

Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο, γίνεται μία αναφορά στις ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας και αναλύεται περισσότερο η αιολική. Αναφέρεται η πορεία αξιοποίησής της, και παραθέτονται πληροφορίες για την τωρινή χρήση της στην παραγωγή ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας αλλά και μελλοντικές βλέψεις. Στο δεύτερο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται τα χαρακτηριστικά του ανέμου και οι εξισώσεις της ανεμογεννήτριας που μας επιτρέπουν να απομαστεύουμε ενέργεια από τον άνεμο μέσω των ανεμογεννητριών. Στο τρίτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται τα δομικά στοιχεία και ο τρόπος με τον οποίο γίνεται η κατηγοριοποίηση των ανεμογεννητριών, οι έλεγχοι που χρησιμοποιούνται και τα είδη των ανεμογεννητριών που χρησιμοποιούνται σήμερα στη βιομηχανία. Στο τέταρτο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται οι τεχνικές απαιτήσεις για τους αιολικούς σταθμούς στο ελληνικό Σ.Η.Ε. Στο πέμπτο κεφάλαιο, γίνεται η προσομοίωση μέσω του προγράμματος Matlab - Simulink ενός μη γραμμικού ελέγχου ισχύος ανεμογεννητριών DFIG για ενσωμάτωση σε εικονικούς σταθμού ισχύος (V.P.P). / In the first chapter, there is a general description about renewable energy resources and more specific, about the wind energy. We present the current worldwide electrical power production and the future requirements for electrical power production in Europe and Greece. In the second chapter, we study the features of the wind performance and the equations that allows us to drain energy from the wind ,using a wind turbine. The third chapter presents the components, the kinds of control and the categories of wind turbines that are in use in industry nowadays. The fourth chapter presents the technical requirements for the wind farms in the Greek System of Electrical Energy. In the fifth chapter we use the program Matlab - Simulink in order to simulate a non-linear direct power control of DFIG wind turbines for Virtual Power Plant (V.P.P.) integration.

A probabilistic methodology for the reliability analysis of composite rotor blades at the ply level was developed. The proposed methodology involves (i) the quantification of the uncertainties (physical, statistical and model) related to the material properties and the extreme aero-elastic loads based on experimental data as well as on 10 min load simulations respectively, (ii) the identification of the critical failure modes of the composite structure in terms of limit state functions and (iii) the selection of an appropriate reliability method to perform the analysis. It is pointed out that the reliability method should be able to handle the considerably large number of limit state function introduced by the ply level reliability approach and estimate the failure probability of the structure. To efficiently deal with the problem, an appropriate implementation of the Response Surface Method combined with crude Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. The methodology was implemented for two real rotor blade designs, namely a 30m Glass/Polyester and the 65m UPWIND reference rotor baled. Initially, calculations were performed for the first case study using a 3D shell FE formulation in a commercial probabilistic code. An efficient procedure was introduced to define the stochastic character of the concentrated loads acting on the 3D FE model starting from load time series of sectional stress resultants from aero-elastic beam simulations. For the first time such a detailed model was analyzed and assessed in a probabilistic base. Nevertheless, a considerable CPU time was in need for the performance of such a reliability analysis. The development of an efficient probabilistic tool capable to perform consecutive reliability analyses at the ply level of the composite rotor blade structure and prove valuable for the probabilistic design was carried out. To demonstrate the efficiency of the developed tool, the impact of various probabilistic modelling assumptions directly on the β-index value of a rotor blade design was studied. / Στην παρούσα διατριβή αναπτύχθηκε στοχαστική μεθοδολογία για την αποτίμηση αξιοπιστίας πτερυγίων ανεμογεννητριών από σύνθετα υλικά, στο επίπεδο της στρώσης, υπό ακραία στατική φόρτιση. Η προτεινόμενη μεθοδολογία περιλαμβάνει (i) την ποσοτικοποίηση αβεβαιοτήτων (φυσική, στατιστική και αβεβαιότητα μοντέλου) που σχετίζονται με τις βασικές παραμέτρους του πτερυγίου (υλικά και φορτία) στηριζόμενη σε ένα μεγάλο αριθμό πειραμάτων για τον προσδιορισμό των μηχανικών ιδιοτήτων του συνθέτου υλικού καθώς και 10-λεπτες αεροελαστικές χρονοσειρές για την ακραία στατική φόρτιση (ii) την αναγνώριση όλων των σημαντικών μηχανισμών αστοχίας της κατασκευής και την έκφρασή τους στη μορφή οριακών συναρτήσεων αστοχίας και (iii) την επιλογή μίας κατάλληλης μεθόδου αξιοπιστίας. Σημειώνεται ότι η μέθοδος αξιοπιστίας θα πρέπει να είναι ικανή να διαχειρίζεται ένα πολύ μεγάλο αριθμό οριακών συναρτήσεων αστοχίας όπως επιβάλει η ανάλυση αξιοπιστίας στο επίπεδο της στρώσης της κατασκευής. Για το σκοπό αυτό προτάθηκε μια κατάλληλη τροποποίηση της Response Surface Method τεχνικής η οποία συνδυάστηκε με την μέθοδο προσομοίωσης crude Monte Carlo. Η προτεινόμενη στοχαστική μεθοδολογία εφαρμόστηκε για την περίπτωση δυο πραγματικών πτερυγίων: ενός 30 m Glass/Polyester και του 65 m Glass/Epoxy (UPWIND) πτερυγίου. Η ανάλυση αρχικά πραγματοποιήθηκε σε γενικού σκοπού στοχαστικά εργαλεία κάνοντας χρήση τρισδιάστατου μοντέλου πεπερασμένων στοιχείων. Σημειώνεται ότι ο υπολογισμός των φορτίων από αεροελαστικούς κώδικες υλοποιείται πάντα στη βάση στοιχείων δοκού. Προτάθηκε επομένως διαδικασία για την στοχαστική αναπαράσταση των συγκεντρωμένων δυνάμεων που επιβάλλονται στο τρισδιάστατο μοντέλο πεπερασμένων στοιχείων του πτερυγίου στηριζόμενη σε χρονοσειρές εσωτερικών αντιδράσεων στη διατομή όπως εξάγονται από αεροελαστικους υπολογισμούς. Για πρώτη φορά σε αυτή την εργασία, πραγματοποιήθηκε η στοχαστική ανάλυση ενός τόσο λεπτομερειακού μοντέλου. Ωστόσο η παραπάνω προσέγγιση αποδείχτηκε αρκετά χρονοβόρα. Για το σκοπό αυτό αναπτύχθηκε υπολογιστικό εργαλείο ικανό να εκτελεί ένα μεγάλο αριθμό επαναλήψεων της προαναφερθείσας μεθοδολογίας και να φανεί χρήσιμο στο σχεδιασμό πτερυγίων με προκαθορισμένο επίπεδο αξιοπιστίας. Εξαιτίας της απλότητας της προετοιμασίας των δεδομένων εισόδου και της ταχύτητας επίλυσης, το νέο εργαλείο έδωσε τη δυνατότητα για τη μελέτη διαφόρων στατιστικών υποθέσεων που αφορούσαν τη δομική αξιοπιστία του πτερυγίου εξετάζοντας απευθείας τον δείκτη αξιοπιστίας β της κατασκευής.

The Complimentary Energy Decision Support Tool (CEDST) was conceived to be a renewable energy calculator designed specifically for rural sites and agricultural operations in Ontario, though could easily assess urban sites as well, and equipped with the ability to compare the feasibility of different technologies. The Wind Energy Calculator (WEC) component of the CEDST project was the focus of this thesis and was developed since research revealed no current wind prediction tools that met CEDST needs. Verification of WEC predictions found prediction accuracy to have bounds of +/- 60% on actual turbine energy production and was equivalent to the actual generation for 21% of cases. The discrepancy could have resulted from unusual annual wind speeds, which had no significant impact on project economics when analysed. Many cases revealed that 10 kW turbines are not feasible projects under the Feed-in Tariff program and that turbines begin to become economical around 35 kW. / University of Guelph, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Poultry Industry Council (PIC), Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA), and Egg Farmers of Ontario