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「中國崛起」是國際社會在討論中共1990年代以來的變化所使用的概念。影響臺灣國家安全的因素雖然很多，但中共政權始終是臺灣國家安全的最大威脅，「中共崛起」後，伴隨其綜合國力的成長，及其擴張的戰略企圖，臺灣問題已經從以往民族情感的統一需求，提升為中共向外擴張的戰略需求，而造成臺灣在安全方面的更大挑戰。 雖然世人對「中國崛起」是否成為威脅的看法分歧，現實主義者認為他是潛在的威脅，主張藉由赫阻等手段維持權力平衡；自由主義者認為讓中國接受國際機制規範，可降低與之發生軍事衝突的可能；建構主義者認為與中國正面的互動會走向和平，但負面的互動會走向衝突；但就臺灣的安全而言，在中共不放棄以武力犯臺的原則下，中共的和平宣示、現實主義、自由主義、乃至建構主義對「中國崛起」的看法與主張，只能當作臺灣在策定國家安全戰略的分析與參考，畢竟中國是否為「和平崛起」需要經過諸多檢驗，臺海安全只能當作國際上對中共行為與和平宣示的驗證；就臺灣本身而言，我們必須堅信中共是我們最大的安全威脅來源。 本文的論述主要從中共崛起的戰略意涵及中共對於未來的戰略企圖，從軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，解構中共崛起後，臺灣安全威脅的變化，分析臺灣如何在「中共崛起」、「國際、區域」局勢更迭中，從國際、兩岸關係、臺灣內部的軍事、經濟、政治、文化層面，建立臺灣應有的認知共識，與具體的戰略思考。以選擇臺灣「避戰爭之兇、趨和平之吉」的最好方法。 / Many of the ideas of the rise of the PRC come from the new security concept, which was formulated by thinktanks in the international comunnity in the mid-1990s. Concerning unification, China is the single most threat to Taiwan’s survival. Spatial expansion, a result of rising China, is gathering momentum to impact Taiwan security. There are controversial arguments. Rationalist argues that China need to be contained through deterrence. Liberalist argues that in order to reduce potential conflict, China can be tampered through international norms. Constructionist argues that China could be bad or behaving boy. Regarding Taiwan security, these arguments are irrelevant to contemporary Taiwan security. As long as China not to exclude the possibility to use force in the unification, China is the single most threat against Taiwan. Regarding Rising China, this paper exams its implications and her strategic intentions. Finally, facing the threat this article tries to find the most feasible strategy in the regional/global environment with economic, political, military, cultural considerations.

中共自1979年推行「改革開放」政策，其社會主義市場經濟進入快速成長軌道，隨著綜合國力的日漸崛起，牽動著亞太區域乃至國際地緣政治的變化，並引發周邊國家對其國家戰略及軍事意圖產生疑慮，即使中共一再闡述「和平發展」及透過對話方式，以期化解各國對其崛起發展的疑懼，但由於開放資訊程度的不透明，在短期內迭起的「中國威脅論」難以改觀。 盱衡當今全球局勢，「中」美關係的發展確是重要考量因素。美國當前全球戰略與其國家安全利益，即是防止區域霸權崛起，威脅美國的區域安全利益。面對中共的崛起，美國己展開「重返亞洲」再平衡策略等一系列的遏制舉措，中共則展現企圖掌控亞太霸權的動機極其明顯。中共與美國戰略利益衝突勢難避免，可見未來的「中」美關係將更為嚴峻，這是中共第五代領導人習近平上台後及美國總統歐巴馬第二任期內的極大挑戰。從區域政治、經濟、安全的視角，無論是亞太區域權力競合、經濟資源開發或軍事策略運作、東海及南海主權爭議等，在在影響「中」美戰略競逐與形勢消長。 美國自2008年全球金融風暴之後，經濟頹勢與財政困頓，而中共的市場經濟持續發展，對於美國恢復經濟動能十分重要。由於經濟的互賴日漸加深，雙方處於一種既競爭又合作的關係。在此種競合交錯的複雜環境下，美國重返亞洲的策略布局，已然被中共視為遏制其崛起的一大挑戰。因此，全力在經濟、外交與軍事上採取各種反制的作為。在「中」美戰略競逐的新形勢下，中共應可體認自身實力與限制因素，在國際戰略情勢中，尋求對自己最有利的位置。 / Since the People’s Republic of China (PRC) released the “Chinese Economic Reform” in 1979, its socialism-oriented market economy has gone into a fast-growing orbit. With the rise of comprehensive national power, PRC has influenced the shape of Asia-Pacific region, even the global geopolitics, and resulted in the neighboring countries’ doubt on its national strategies and military intentions. Although PRC seeks to dissolve other countries’ doubt and fear through expounding on its peaceful development and dialogue, the opacity of information makes it difficult to change their views in a short time. The development of China-United States relations is indeed a major consideration in current global situation. The global strategies and national security interests of United States are to prevent the rise of regional hegemony from threatening its regional security interests. Facing the rise of PRC, United States has implemented rebalancing strategy “Pivot to Asia” as one of the containment measures. On the other hand, the motivations which China is competing for the leadership in Asia-Pacific are obvious. The conflict of strategic interests between PRC and United States is inevitable, and their relations will be more difficult in the foreseeable future. It will be a great challenge for Xi Jinping’s administration, the PRC fifth leadership generation, and United Sates President Obama’s second term. In the perspective of regional politics, economics and security, whether the power competition in Asia-Pacific, development of economic resources, implementation of military strategies, or the sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Sea, they are all influencing the increase and decrease of the strategic competition and situation between China and United States. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the economy and finance of United States have suffered from recession. However, the market economy of PRC is continuing to grow and plays an important role to provide momentum for United States’ economy to recover. Due to the deepening economic interdependence, the relations of both sides can be competitive and cooperative. PRC has regarded Unites States’ “Pivot to Asia ”strategy as a challenge to contain it’s rise and therefore implemented economic, diplomatic, and military countermeasures. In the new situation of China-United States strategic competition, the PRC shall be aware of its strength and limitations to find its most strategic position in the international strategic circumstances.