俄羅斯與阿根廷的經濟改革在「華盛頓共識」下揭開了序幕。1991年蘇聯解體後，俄羅斯的政治由一黨專政走向多元的民主，而經濟體制也從過去的社會主義所有制轉向市場經濟體制發展。相對阿根廷則是在1983年軍政府的威權官僚統治被推翻後，開始施行民主政治。而國內的經濟也在1984年開始從過度干預的市場向自由放任的資本主義市場移動。但在兩國國內經濟改革的過程中，國會及西方國際金融組織的影響為經濟改革帶來莫大的變數。因此本文旨在透過剖析國會、國家政府、和西方國際金融組織三者之間的互動與關係，分析穩定化經濟政策的產出、施行的過程、及所帶來的結果。本文也著重地探討和穩定化相互關連與影響的通貨膨脹與西方外援這兩個因素，探究權力均衡、穩定化、通貨膨脹、經濟表現、與西方外援對俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型過程所產生的影響。 本論文主要採用國會、國家政府、與西方國際金融組織，權力均衡的研究途徑，透過選舉週期與經改週期的因素影響，探討俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型的過程與發展。因為受到上述三邊角力的影響，穩定化(stabilization)成了國內經濟改革最主要的問題，因此本文著重在經濟改革穩定化層面的發展，及與穩定化息息相關，相互影響的因素-通貨膨脹與西方外援，提出更進一步的剖析。在這樣的架構下，本論文第一章除了說明研究動機與目的、研究架構、章節安排外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻的優缺點，以做為論文研究之基礎。第二章敘述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟改革前的歷史背景，探討前蘇聯與阿根廷軍政府為之後經濟改革所留下的伏筆；第三章闡述俄羅斯與阿根廷經濟轉型穩定化之成效、透過國內政治週期對兩國國家領導人：葉爾欽(Boris Yeltsin)、普欽(Vladimir Putin)、阿芳辛(Raúl Alfonsín)、美能(Carlos Menem)、與德拉魯阿(Fernando De la Rua)所產生的影響為論述的焦點；第四章則論述通貨膨脹與西方外援對兩國國內經濟改革的相互影響，並指出它們在穩定化政策執行下的表現，及如何再次回歸影響到穩定化制程的發展；第五章為結論。 本論文所得到的結論是國會、國家政府、與國際金融組織的權力均衡決定了俄羅斯與阿根廷國家經濟轉型穩定化的走向，而穩定的經濟政策是帶動國家經濟成長的關鍵。目前在普欽強勢的帶領之下，俄羅斯已逐漸擺脫金融風暴的陰霾，而阿根廷在新總統基什內爾(Nestor Kirchner)的領導下，是否有辦法帶領阿根廷的經濟走向復甦與成長，還有待時間的考驗。 / Under the “Washington consensus”, Russia and Argentina have started their economic transition. The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. In contrast in 1983, after the demolition of Argentina Military Dictatorship Bureaucratic authoritarianism regime, the country started to apply democracy. And soon, in 1984, Argentina’s economy started to move from over control market toward free individual capitalism market. However, in the economic reform process of both countries, the Parliament and Western International Financial Organizations have brought immense impact on their economic transitions. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interactive relationships among Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations, and also to study the formulation of the economic stabilization programs, the application process, and the conclusion. Also, in the thesis we will discuss inflation and western aid factors that have close relationship and mutual influences with the stabilization programs, so to find out the impacts and the developments brought by balance of power, stabilization, inflation, economic performance, and western aids in the process of economic transition. In this thesis, we adopt the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations’ balance of power as the research approach, through the impact of election’s cycle and economic transition’s cycle, we discuss the process and developments of Russian and Argentina’s economic transition. Because the influences brought by above authorities, stabilization becomes the most important concern for countries which are performing economic transition. As so, the thesis is focused on stabilization sphere, and the factors of inflation and western aids that brought mutual influences to stabilization. Under this framework, the first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research framework, chapter arrangements, and the advantages and disadvantages of relevant literature. The second chapter describes Russian and Argentina’s historical background before the economic transition, and we also analyze the hints left by the Soviet Union and Argentina military government. The third one, we focus on the effects of stabilization program in Russian and Argentina economic transition, through the interaction of election’s cycle and both countries’ leader: Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin, Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem, Fernando De la Rua. The fourth chapter analyzes the interaction among inflation and western aids with country’s economic transition, we also point out the inflation and western aids’ performances under different periods of stabilization program, and how they come back to influence the formulation of the stabilization program. The fifth one is the conclusion. We come to conclusion that the balance of power among the Parliament, Government, and Western International Organizations decide the tendency of Russian and Argentina’s economic stabilization, and the key to bring the country economic growth is to settle a stable economic policy. Now, under Putin’s strong leadership, Russian has started to get over from the shadow of 1998 crisis. But Argentina with the guidance of the new president Nestor Kirchner, whether the country will be lead to a revival and growth way or not, it will still remain under the question.

本論文之研究目的在於探討1992-2000年期間俄羅斯政經環境對台俄經貿關係之影響。台灣與俄羅斯的貿易自1992年開始，貿易量雖有起伏，但大體來說仍可謂是正成長。然而，當俄羅斯開始走向市場經濟路線、施行震盪療法，經濟轉型不如預期中的順利，再加上金融風暴的發生，導致俄羅斯經濟一蹶不振。到1998年時，由於受到盧布大幅貶值，造成我國部分業者無法收到貨款或訂單被取消，使得業者暫停對俄貿易而改採觀望的態度，台俄貿易量也為之遽減。由此我們發現，俄羅斯政經狀況對台俄經貿關係有相當程度的影響。本論文認為俄羅斯的政治環境與經濟情勢是影響台俄經貿之主因；而由於當前俄羅斯的政經情勢逐漸轉好，因此可以預期未來的台俄經貿情況將會漸至佳境。此一假設命題可再引申為下列邏輯相關的子命題： （一）俄羅斯的政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響有正、負兩方面 1. 俄羅斯的國內政治環境與對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 2. 中俄關係對台俄經貿關係的影響為負相關 （二）俄羅斯的經濟情勢對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 1. 俄羅斯的經濟改革對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 2. 俄羅斯的經濟體質對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 3. 俄羅斯的銀行體系對台俄經貿關係的影響為正相關 （三）根據H-O定理，台俄經貿仍有相當大的發展空間。加上普欽執政後，俄羅斯政經情勢逐漸改善，因此可以預期未來的台俄經貿情況必然會漸至佳境。 上述的三個子命題，構成本論文的核心論點；而對應此三個論點，本論文將分六章探討。第一章為緒論，說明研究動機與研究目的、文獻述評與研究方法、假設命題與研究架構。第二章：台俄經貿之開展及商品結構。此章分為兩節：分別為台俄經貿之開始與推展及台俄貿易之商品結構。第三章：俄羅斯之政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響。此章分為三節：分別為俄羅斯國內政治環境對台俄經貿關係的影響、中俄關係對台俄經貿關係的影響及小結。第四章：俄羅斯之經濟情勢對台俄經貿關係的影響。本章將先說明俄羅斯的經濟改革，再從俄羅斯的經濟體質及銀行體系兩方面，探討俄羅斯之經濟環境對台俄經貿關係的影響。第五章：台俄經貿的未來走向。本章將依據三、四章之討論結果，對台俄經貿的未來走向做預測。本章分為三節：普欽執政後的政治環境、普欽執政後的經濟情勢及小結。第六章：結論。總結整個論文之重點及研究之結果。 / This thesis is to discuss the influence of Russian Political and economic environment to Taiwan-Russia economy and trade during the period of 1992-2000. Taiwan-Russia trade has started since 1992. Roughly speaking, the amount of the trade was growing. However, when Russia started to change their economic strategy, and carried out the shock therapy, the route of economic reform was not as smooth as expected. The outbreak of financial crisis leaded to the crash of Russia economy. In 1998, some Taiwanese businessmen couldn’t receive payment of goods or the orders were canceled because of the evaluation of ruble. It has made those businessmen change their attitude and stop trading with their Russian counterparts. The amount of Taiwan-Russia trade became decreasing. According to this reason, we found that Russia political and economic situations have great impact upon Taiwan-Russian economic and trade relationship. This dissertation is taking the position that Russian political environments and Russia economic situations are the main reason which influent the economy and trade relation between Taiwan and Russia’s economy and trade relation between Taiwan and Russia. The present Russia political and economic situations are getting better, so we can forecast that Taiwan-Russia economic and trade situation will be better and better in the future. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following three logically intertwined propositions： (一) The impact of Russian political environments upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship has both positive and negative sides. 1. The impact of Russian domestic political environments upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 2. The impact of China-Russia relation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is negative. (二) The impact of Russian economic situation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 1. The impact of Russian economic reform upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 2. The impact of Russian economic construction upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. 3. The impact of Russian banking system upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship is positive. (三) According to H-O therapy, the economy and trade between Taiwan and Russia still have large potential. After Putin took power, the Russia political and economic situation gets better. Therefore, we can forecast that Taiwan-Russia economic and trade situation will be better and better in the future. These three interwoven propositions above constitute the core points of this thesis. In accordance with these points, this thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter 1 is introduction, it will explain the motivation, purpose, method, hypothesis and framework of this study. Chapter 2：The start and goods structure of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade. This chapter has two sections, they are the start of Taiwan-Russia economy and trade and the structure of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade. Chapter 3：The impact of Russian political environment to Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relation. This chapter has three sections, including the impact of Russian domestic political environment upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship, the impact of China-Russia relation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship, and the initial conclusion. Chapter 4：The impact of Russian economic situation upon Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relationship. In this chapter, first we explain the Russian economic reform. Then we discuss Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation through the aspects of Russian economic construction and the Russian banking system. Chapter 5：The trend of Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation in the future. This chapter will make a forecast to the trend of Taiwan-Russia economy and trade relation. This chapter has three sections, including the political environment after Putin took power, the economic situation after Putin took power, and the initial conclusion. Chapter 6：Conclusion.

本文旨在探討經濟外交理論對俄羅斯外交決策的影響。俄羅斯經濟外交政策主要是積極發展對外的經濟關係，創造對俄羅斯友善的國際環境，希望藉此帶動國內經濟的發展。而在俄羅斯牽涉經濟外交的各領域中，能源的因素尤其重要，由於俄羅斯境內蘊藏豐富的天然資源，尤其是天然氣，因此利用能源做為籌碼的經濟外交政策是俄羅斯對外政策中常見的情況。 而俄羅斯的經濟外交政策場域中，本文主要以近鄰和歐洲國家為主，由於許多俄羅斯的近鄰是前蘇聯的加盟共和國，同時也是能源的過境運輸國，因此俄羅斯常利用能源做為手段，藉此影響近鄰的對外政策。而歐洲國家大部份是俄羅斯的主要能源消費國，因此俄羅斯也可利用能源的出口為手段，打進歐洲各國的能源市場，藉此創造對俄羅斯友好的國際環境。 其中德國身為俄羅斯在歐洲最大的貿易夥伴，在政治和經濟上面的互動十分頻繁，德國主要從俄羅斯進口石油、天然氣。研究發現德國和其他歐洲國家相比，較為依賴俄羅斯能源的進口，因此給予俄羅斯對德國實行經濟外交戰略時的有效籌碼，特別是在天然氣領域中貿易互動方面，俄羅斯藉由能源公司對德國的能源領域的投資，企圖藉由深入德國的能源市場，進入歐洲的能源貿易體系。 / This thesis aims to discuss the Russian economic diplomacy. Russian economic diplomacy mainly focuses on using economic as a leverage to influence other countries policies to Russia with the purpose of creating an amicable international situation, and promoting Russian domestic economic situation. Due to the fact that Russia possesses various natural recourses, energy is the main theme in Russia economic diplomacy, especially natural gas. The topic of this study mainly discusses the economic diplomacy relations between Russia with near abroad and Europe. Most of the near abroad countries are former Soviet Union republics and the energy transit countries of Russia as well. As the result, Russia can use energy issue as a tool to sway these countries policies. Additionally, Russia can also utilize energy export to enter the Europe energy market because most of the European countries are the main energy consumer of Russia. The study has shown that German is the main political and economical partner of Russia, and is also the biggest trade partner and energy consumer of Russia compared to other countries throughout Europe. Thus, German is strongly dependent on Russia energy export, especially on petroleum and natural gas. This condition benefited Russia by providing a window for Russia to enter Germany energy market in terms of energy enterprise trade and investment to German. Furthermore, by entering German energy market, Russia can enter European energy trading system.